BBMI Rank · #16 of 32

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record 10-72025 SeasonPower rating +0.4

Analytics, not picks

Projected

10–7

100% playoff · 100% division

Offense above average · Defense above average · ranked 16th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #8

EPA/play

+0.006

8th

Pass EPA

+0.042

17th

Rush EPA

-0.003

6th

Defense

EPA #18

EPA/play

-0.010

18th

Pass def EPA

+0.067

15th

Rush def EPA

-0.054

21st

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackB-

EPA/dropback: +0.066 (#17)

A.Rodgers

ReceiversA

YAC EPA: -0.075 (#3)

D.Metcalf

Running GameA-

EPA/rush: -0.001 (#6)

J.Warren

O-LineA-

Stuff rate %: +18.500 (#6)

Pass RushB-

Sack rate %: 6.600 (#19)

CoverageB

Opp pass EPA: 0.059 (#15)

Run DefenseC+

Opp rush EPA: -0.039 (#21)

Special TeamsB

Net ST EPA: +2.400 (#16)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	@NYJ	W	34-32	+0.200	+0.212
2	vsSEA	L	17-31	+0.003	+0.133
3	@NE	W	21-14	+0.020	+0.042
4	vsMIN	W	24-21	+0.073	+0.040
6	vsCLE	W	23-9	+0.082	+0.001
7	@CIN	L	31-33	+0.131	+0.070
8	vsGB	L	25-35	+0.083	+0.121
9	vsIND	W	27-20	+0.050	+0.080
10	@LAC	L	10-25	-0.021	+0.047
11	vsCIN	W	34-12	+0.011	+0.010
12	@CHI	L	28-31	+0.017	+0.011
13	vsBUF	L	7-26	-0.047	+0.024
14	@BAL	W	27-22	-0.006	+0.024
15	vsMIA	W	28-15	+0.023	+0.015
16	@DET	W	29-24	+0.040	+0.020
17	@CLE	L	6-13	+0.006	-0.010
18	vsBAL	W	26-24	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

10–7

Playoff probability

100%

Division win

100%

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Cameron Heyward (DEF) absence worth ~0.5 points (undisclosed injury, missed 2 games)
Aaron Rodgers (QB) absence worth ~0.2 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Jaylen Warren (RB) absence worth ~0.2 points (Not injury related - resting player, missed 1 game)
DK Metcalf (WR) absence worth ~0.3 points (undisclosed injury, missed 2 games)
T.J. Watt (DEF) absence worth ~0.4 points (undisclosed injury, missed 4 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.