BBMI Rank · #28 of 32

Washington Commanders

Record 5-122025 SeasonPower rating -5.2

Analytics, not picks

Projected

5–12

0% playoff · 0% division

Offense above average · Defense poor · ranked 28th of 32 by power rating.

Offense

EPA #18

EPA/play

+0.015

18th

Pass EPA

+0.075

13th

Rush EPA

-0.014

10th

Defense

EPA #29

EPA/play

+0.202

29th

Pass def EPA

+0.297

27th

Rush def EPA

+0.018

29th

EPA = expected points added per play, opponent-adjusted. Ranks are out of 32 teams; green flags values well above average, red below. Defensive EPA is better when lower.

EPA trend by week

Navy = offensive EPA/play (higher is better). Rust = defensive EPA/play (lower is better).

Position group grades

QuarterbackB

EPA/dropback: +0.084 (#13)

M.Mariota

ReceiversD

YAC EPA: -0.524 (#30)

D.Samuel

Running GameB+

EPA/rush: -0.041 (#10)

J.Croskey-Merritt

O-LineB-

Stuff rate %: +21.200 (#20)

Pass RushD

Sack rate %: 6.400 (#31)

CoverageC

Opp pass EPA: 0.239 (#27)

Run DefenseD

Opp rush EPA: 0.028 (#29)

Special TeamsB-

Net ST EPA: +26 (#17)

Schedule & results

Wk	Opponent	Result	Score	Off EPA	Def EPA
1	vsNYG	W	21-6	+0.155	-0.138
2	@GB	L	18-27	+0.019	-0.005
3	vsLV	W	41-24	+0.094	+0.005
4	@ATL	L	27-34	+0.108	+0.086
5	@LAC	W	27-10	+0.143	+0.025
6	vsCHI	L	24-25	+0.118	+0.048
7	@DAL	L	22-44	+0.064	+0.071
8	@KC	L	7-28	+0.023	+0.105
9	vsSEA	L	14-38	+0.010	+0.164
10	vsDET	L	22-44	+0.035	+0.216
11	@MIA	L	13-16	+0.042	+0.182
13	vsDEN	L	26-27	+0.049	+0.178
14	@MIN	L	0-31	-0.010	+0.196
15	@NYG	W	29-21	-0.009	+0.174
16	vsPHI	L	18-29	-0.017	+0.199
17	vsDAL	L	23-30	+0.015	+0.202
18	@PHI	W	24-17	—	—

Per-game offensive and defensive EPA are analytics — BBMI doesn’t issue NFL picks. Defensive EPA is better when negative.

Season projections

Projected record

5–12

Playoff probability

Division win

Playoff probability by week

Projected record by week

Monte Carlo simulation (2,000 iterations per week). Each point reflects the projected season outcome from data available at that week.

Insights

Missing key starters: Marcus Mariota
Without Marcus Mariota (QB): ~1.4-point spread swing, -5.8% win probability (undisclosed injury, missed 7 games)
Without Javon Kinlaw (DEF): ~1.1-point spread swing, -4.9% win probability (undisclosed injury, missed 4 games)
Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR) absence worth ~0.2 points (undisclosed injury, missed 1 game)
Jonathan Jones (DEF) absence worth ~0.7 points (undisclosed injury, missed 7 games)

Elo rating history

How these ratings are built

BBMI NFL ratings use opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added per play) on both sides of the ball, plus home field and rest. The power rating is the projected margin against an average team on a neutral field — the same number that drives the playoff simulation.

NFL is analytics-only: BBMI publishes ratings and projections, not betting picks. See the methodology for why.