NFC EAST • 2026 SEASON
Washington Commanders
#26
BBMI rank
-2.4
Rating
6.2–10.8
Proj record
6%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Philadelphia Eagles
SUN NOV 1 • 7:20 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Washington Commanders
Model assumes: Tanner McKee (PHI) v Jayden Daniels (WAS)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13at PHIL 22–24#29+6.032%
at PHISep 20
at DALL 20–37#20+4.040%
at DALSep 27
vs SEAW 33–31#6+8.526%
vs SEAOct 4
vs INDL 13–30#24+5.037%
vs INDOct 11
vs NYGT 27–27#17-3.545%
vs NYGOct 19
at SFL 17–23#1+7.021%
at SFNov 1vs PHISun 7:20 PM#29-5.5Premium
vs PHINov 8
vs LARSun 12:00 PM#13+5.5Premium
vs LARNov 12at NYGThu 7:15 PM#17+1.5Premium
at NYGNov 23
vs CINMon 7:15 PM#7+1.5Premium
vs CINNov 29
at ARISun 3:25 PM#28-4.5Premium
at ARIDec 6
at TENSun 12:00 PM#32-1.5Premium
at TENDec 13
vs HOUSun 12:00 PM#21+1.5Premium
vs HOUDec 20
vs ATLSun 12:00 PM#18-3.5Premium
vs ATLDec 27
at MINSun 12:00 PM#3+2.5Premium
at MINJan 3
at JAXSun 12:00 PM#10+3.5Premium
at JAXJan 10vs DALSun 12:00 PM#20+1.5Premium
vs DALModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#22#24#26#28#30
#26
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #2507-28 #2309-15 #2309-22 #2509-29 #2610-06 #2810-13 #2510-20 #2610-27 #26
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the NFC East5%
Make the playoffs6%
No. 1 seed (bye)0%
Reach the Super Bowl0%
Win the Super Bowl0%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
6.2
345678910
Middle half of the simulations: 5 to 7 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 4.5 to 8.5. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.007#18
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.067#25
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.069#19
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.148#22
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.145#26
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.085#20
Schedule strength (opp rating)-0.2#19
Projected wins6.2#26
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Commanders
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on WAS
3–3
Picks against
-0.3u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.