Team Pages/AFC South/Jacksonville Jaguars
JAX
AFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record 1-0vs line 0–1 ATSLast W 34–10 vs CLENext Sep 20 at DEN
#17
BBMI rank
+0.8
Rating
8.7–8.3
Proj record
43%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.

Next game

Game Picks →
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
#17 • +0.8 • AFC South
SUN SEP 20 • 3:05 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Denver Broncos
#13 • +2.6 • home
DEN
—
Model line
+3.0
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board, week by week as it prices
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
CLEvs CLE
W 34–10#30-8.574%
Sep 20
DENat DEN
Sun 3:05 PM#13+3.0
Sep 27
NEvs NE
Sun 12:00 PM#10-1.5
Oct 4
CINat CIN
Sun 12:00 PM#7+2.5
Oct 11
PHIvs PHI
Sun 8:30 AM#9+1.5
Oct 18
HOUvs HOU
Sun 8:30 AM#14+1.5
Nov 1
INDvs IND
Sun 12:00 PM#21-4.5
Nov 5
BALat BAL
Thu 7:15 PM#2+4.5
Nov 15
TENat TEN
Sun 12:00 PM#27-2.5
Nov 22
NYGat NYG
Sun 12:00 PM#24-1.5
Nov 29
TENvs TEN
Sun 3:05 PM#27-5.5
Dec 6
CHIat CHI
Sun 12:00 PM#15+3.0
Dec 14
PITvs PIT
Mon 7:15 PM#19-3.0
Dec 20
HOUat HOU
Sun 12:00 PM#14+3.0
Dec 27
DALat DAL
Sun 7:20 PM#16+3.0
Jan 3
WASvs WAS
Sun 12:00 PM#23-3.5
Jan 10
INDat IND
Sun 12:00 PM#21+1.5

Ranking over time

no series published
The weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Win the AFC South23%
Make the playoffs43%
No. 1 seed (bye)2%
Reach the Super Bowl3%
Win the Super Bowl1%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
8.7
56789101112
Middle half of the simulations: 7 to 10 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 6 to 11. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.042#12
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.104#5
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.105#14
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.098#24
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.043#6
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.114#7
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.2#15
Projected wins8.7#17
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.

BBMI picks on the Jaguars

2026 • ATS
0–0
Picks on JAX
0–1
Picks against
-1.0u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.