AFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Jacksonville Jaguars
#10
BBMI rank
+5.1
Rating
10.7–6.3
Proj record
89%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Indianapolis Colts
SUN NOV 1 • 12:00 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Jacksonville Jaguars
Model assumes: Daniel Jones (IND) v Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
vs CLEW 34–10#16-8.574%
vs CLESep 20
at DENL 13–20#5+2.543%
at DENSep 27
vs NEW 35–6#11-3.050%
vs NEOct 4
at CINW 22–17#7+2.541%
at CINOct 11
vs PHIW 19–17#29-8.066%
vs PHIOct 18
vs HOUL 31–34#21-2.556%
vs HOUNov 1vs INDSun 12:00 PM#24-10.0Premium
vs INDNov 5
at BALThu 7:15 PM#14+3.0Premium
at BALNov 15
at TENSun 12:00 PM#32-2.5Premium
at TENNov 22
at NYGSun 12:00 PM#17-1.5Premium
at NYGNov 29vs TENSun 3:05 PM#32-5.5Premium
vs TENDec 6
at CHISun 12:00 PM#8+3.0Premium
at CHIDec 14
vs PITMon 7:15 PM#12-3.0Premium
vs PITDec 20at HOUSun 12:00 PM#21+3.0Premium
at HOUDec 27
at DALSun 7:20 PM#20+3.0Premium
at DALJan 3
vs WASSun 12:00 PM#26-3.5Premium
vs WASJan 10at INDSun 12:00 PM#24+1.5Premium
at INDModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#5#10#15
#10
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #1707-28 #1709-15 #1609-22 #1509-29 #1210-06 #810-13 #510-20 #710-27 #10
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the AFC South85%
Make the playoffs89%
No. 1 seed (bye)7%
Reach the Super Bowl10%
Win the Super Bowl4%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
10.7
891011121314
Middle half of the simulations: 10 to 12 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 9 to 13. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.114#5
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.016#14
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.221#4
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.029#9
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.064#14
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.181#4
Schedule strength (opp rating)-0.9#31
Projected wins10.7#8
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Jaguars
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on JAX
2–4
Picks against
-2.2u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.