AFC WEST • 2026 SEASON
Denver Broncos
#5
BBMI rank
+3.1
Rating
11.2–5.8
Proj record
88%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Kansas City Chiefs
SUN NOV 1 • 3:25 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Denver Broncos
-1.8
Model line
+1.5
Market line
+3.3
Edge
56%
Win probability
Model assumes: Patrick Mahomes (KC) v Bo Nix (DEN)
Denver Broncos 56%Kansas City Chiefs 44%
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 14at KCL 10–31#4+1.543%
at KCSep 20
vs JAXW 20–13#10-2.558%
vs JAXSep 27
vs LARW 30–26#13+1.037%
vs LAROct 4
at SFL 14–24#1+3.037%
at SFOct 11
at LACW 23–17#30-3.562%
at LACOct 15
vs SEAW 17–14#6+2.549%
vs SEAOct 25
at ARIW 30–16#28-4.573%
at ARINov 1vs KCSun 3:25 PM#4+1.556%
vs KCNov 8
at CARSun 12:00 PM#19-2.5Premium
at CARNov 22
vs LVSun 3:25 PM#23-7.5Premium
vs LVNov 27
at PITFri 2:00 PM#12-1.5Premium
at PITDec 6
vs MIASun 3:05 PM#31-9.5Premium
vs MIADec 13
at NYJSun 12:00 PM#27-5.5Premium
at NYJDec 20at LVSun 3:25 PM#23-4.5Premium
at LVDec 25
vs BUFFri 3:30 PM#2+1.5Premium
vs BUFJan 3
at NESun 12:00 PM#11+2.5Premium
at NEJan 10vs LACSun 12:00 PM#30-1.5Premium
vs LACModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#5#10#15
#4
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #1307-28 #1309-15 #1309-22 #1309-29 #910-06 #910-13 #1010-20 #510-27 #4
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the AFC West47%
Make the playoffs88%
No. 1 seed (bye)13%
Reach the Super Bowl13%
Win the Super Bowl6%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
11.2
891011121314
Middle half of the simulations: 10 to 12 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 9 to 13. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.032#23
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.049#4
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.004#23
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.086#14
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.047#4
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.053#26
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.5#11
Projected wins11.2#6
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Broncos
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on DEN
5–2
Picks against
+2.5u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.