NFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Atlanta Falcons
#26
BBMI rank
-3.2
Rating
6.7–10.3
Proj record
17%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.
Next game
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Carolina Panthers
SUN SEP 20 • 12:00 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Atlanta Falcons
—
Model line
-1.0
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at PITL 13–20#19+6.538%
at PITSep 20vs CARSun 12:00 PM#25-1.0
vs CARSep 24
at GBThu 7:15 PM#12+7.5
at GBOct 5
at NOMon 7:15 PM#22+2.5
at NOOct 11
vs BALSun 7:20 PM#2+4.5
vs BALOct 18
vs CHISun 12:00 PM#15+3.0
vs CHIOct 25
vs SFSun 12:00 PM#6+4.5
vs SFNov 1
at TBSun 12:00 PM#20+4.5
at TBNov 8
vs CINSun 8:30 AM#7+4.5
vs CINNov 15
vs KCSun 12:00 PM#8+4.5
vs KCNov 29
at MINSun 12:00 PM#18+3.5
at MINDec 6
vs DETSun 12:00 PM#4+3.5
vs DETDec 13
at CLESun 12:00 PM#30-1.5
at CLEDec 20
at WASSun 12:00 PM#23+3.5
at WASDec 27vs TBSun 12:00 PM#20+1.5
vs TBJan 3vs NOSun 12:00 PM#22-1.5
vs NOJan 10at CARSun 12:00 PM#25+2.5
at CARRanking over time
no series publishedThe weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Win the NFC South18%
Make the playoffs17%
No. 1 seed (bye)0%
Reach the Super Bowl0%
Win the Super Bowl0%
Regular-season wins
middle half of sims6.7
345678910
Middle half of the simulations: 5 to 8 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 4 to 9. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.017#17
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.018#16
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.049#22
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.079#19
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.042#12
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.043#24
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.3#12
Projected wins6.7#26
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
BBMI picks on the Falcons
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on ATL
0–1
Picks against
-1.0u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.