NFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Atlanta Falcons
#18
BBMI rank
-0.8
Rating
7.7–9.3
Proj record
35%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Atlanta Falcons
SUN NOV 1 • 12:00 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Model assumes: Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) v Baker Mayfield (TB)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at PITL 13–20#12+6.538%
at PITSep 20
vs CARL 3–34#19+2.548%
vs CARSep 24
at GBW 35–14#15+4.530%
at GBOct 5
at NOW 45–24#25+1.049%
at NOOct 11
vs BALL 23–30#14-3.064%
vs BALOct 18
vs CHIL 23–31#8+1.051%
vs CHIOct 25
vs SFW 29–20#1+2.538%
vs SFNov 1at TBSun 12:00 PM#22+2.5Premium
at TBNov 8
vs CINSun 8:30 AM#7+3.0Premium
vs CINNov 15
vs KCSun 12:00 PM#4+4.5Premium
vs KCNov 29
at MINSun 12:00 PM#3+3.5Premium
at MINDec 6
vs DETSun 12:00 PM#9+3.5Premium
vs DETDec 13
at CLESun 12:00 PM#16-1.5Premium
at CLEDec 20
at WASSun 12:00 PM#26+3.5Premium
at WASDec 27vs TBSun 12:00 PM#22+1.5Premium
vs TBJan 3vs NOSun 12:00 PM#25-1.5Premium
vs NOJan 10at CARSun 12:00 PM#19+2.5Premium
at CARModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#20#25
#18
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #2607-28 #2609-15 #2609-22 #2609-29 #2310-06 #1910-13 #1810-20 #2210-27 #18
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the NFC South34%
Make the playoffs35%
No. 1 seed (bye)0%
Reach the Super Bowl2%
Win the Super Bowl1%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
7.7
567891011
Middle half of the simulations: 7 to 9 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 6 to 10. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.030#21
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.022#13
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.056#27
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.001#6
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.023#10
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.115#11
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.9#6
Projected wins7.7#20
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Falcons
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on ATL
1–6
Picks against
-5.1u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.