Why Plus-22 Is Unlikely to Repeat: Chicago's 2026 Season, by the Numbers

The 2025 Bears packed a lot into one season. They improved by six wins, from 5-12 to 11-6, tying the third-largest year-over-year jump in franchise history. They became the first Bears team to reach the playoffs after an 0-2 start. Ben Johnson became the first Chicago head coach to win a postseason game in his first season, and he did it by erasing an 18-point deficit against Green Bay, the largest playoff comeback in franchise history.

A week later, Chicago took the Rams to overtime before losing 20-17 in the divisional round.

The point differential was less convincing. Chicago scored 441 points, ninth in the league, and allowed 415, 23rd. Pro Football Reference's scoring-based estimate put the Bears at 9.1 expected wins. They won 11.

BBMI's 2025 grades show the same split: ninth in offensive EPA per play and 23rd on defense. The offense looked like a playoff unit. The defense relied heavily on takeaways. The question for 2026 is whether the first group can improve enough to cover the likely decline of the second.

What BBMI's model says

BBMI rates Chicago +1.6 points per game against an average opponent, 15th of 32, and projects a 9.3-7.7 record. The Bears have a 47% chance to make the playoffs, an 18% chance to win the NFC North and a 2.1% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Before Week 1, BBMI's NFL rating is anchored to market win totals and 2025 quarterback depth charts. It becomes opponent-adjusted once 2026 games are played. The preseason ratings are best read as tiers, not precise measurements of the gap between neighboring teams.

The model also is not applying a separate turnover-regression adjustment to Chicago. It starts from the market-based preseason rating and simulates the schedule from there. Even so, the model and the regression case point to the same conclusion: nine wins looks more plausible than another 11.

The uncertainty remains wide. The middle 80% of Chicago's simulated seasons finish between 7 and 12 wins. The Bears' 18% division probability is one point higher than Green Bay's despite a lower rating. That can happen because the ratings measure team strength, while division probabilities also depend on schedules and simulated game results.

BBMI 20,000-season simulation · middle 80% range.

The first team out

BBMI's Playoff Pulse shows one projected 14-team field based on the model's mean standings. Chicago is not in it.

The NFC division winners are Los Angeles, Detroit, Philadelphia and New Orleans. Seattle, San Francisco and Green Bay take the three wild cards. Their projected win totals are 10.6, 10.2 and 9.7, respectively, all ahead of Chicago's 9.3. New Orleans gets the fourth seed at 8.2 wins because it is the projected NFC South winner, not because BBMI rates the Saints above the Bears.

That makes Chicago the first team outside the projected field, four-tenths of a win behind Green Bay for the final wild card. There is no conflict between that bracket and the Bears' 47% playoff probability. The bracket shows one mean outcome. The probability reflects all 20,000 simulations.

Plus-22, and why it matters

The Bears led the NFL with a plus-22 turnover differential. They recorded 33 takeaways and committed 11 giveaways, leading the league in both categories for the first time since 1963. It was their best turnover margin since the 1985 team finished plus-23.

That advantage shaped the season. Chicago went 9-0 when it forced at least two turnovers and 3-7, including the playoffs, when it forced one or none. The Bears also went 7-4 in regular-season games decided by seven points or fewer. Six of their regular-season wins, plus the wild-card victory over Green Bay, came after they trailed in the final two minutes.

History says a margin this large almost always falls back. According to ESPN, 22 teams have finished plus-20 or better since 1990, including the 2025 Bears. The previous 21 averaged a plus-3 margin the next season, meaning their turnover margins declined by more than 19 on average. Twenty of the 21 also won fewer games.

Fumble recoveries are another warning. Chicago recovered 66.7% of all fumbles in its games, the highest rate in the league. Since 1990, 23 teams have recovered at least 65% in a season. None repeated that rate the following year; collectively, they fell to 49.3%.

Personnel makes another plus-22 season harder to picture. Kevin Byard III led the NFL with seven interceptions and signed with New England. Nahshon Wright led the league with eight takeaways, five interceptions and three fumble recoveries, and signed with the Jets. Together they produced 15 of Chicago's 33 takeaways.

Jaquan Brisker left for Pittsburgh, C.J. Gardner-Johnson signed with Buffalo and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds joined the Giants. Chicago retained Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but much of the secondary and linebacker group around them has changed.

The pass rush still needs an answer

Chicago's defense finished 23rd in EPA per play, 18th against the pass and 27th against the run on BBMI's team page. The pass rush received a C+ grade, with a 5.6% sack rate that ranked 24th.

Other measures were less forgiving. The Bears recorded 35 sacks, ranked 29th in pressure rate at 28% and finished 31st in pass rush win rate at 29%. Montez Sweat led the team with 10 sacks and 44 pressures. Gervon Dexter Sr. was second with 17 pressures. That 27-pressure gap was the fourth-largest difference between a team's top two pressure producers.

Chicago did not draft an edge rusher or make a major addition there in free agency. The Bears signed Marcus Davenport on August 17, but the late-camp move does not resolve the larger question by itself.

The original plan was to get more from the returning group. Dayo Odeyingbo is coming back from the torn Achilles that ended his 2025 season after eight games and one sack. Shemar Turner remains on PUP while recovering from a torn ACL. Austin Booker had 4.5 sacks in 10 games and is the clearest internal candidate to complement Sweat.

Dennis Allen has also put part of the responsibility on coaching. He said the staff focused so heavily on scheme last year that it lost sight of fundamentals and technique. This offseason, the work has emphasized get-off, pad level and finishing. That may help, but Chicago still needs either a healthy return from Odeyingbo, a jump from Booker or an unexpected contribution from Davenport.

The secondary has its own injury concerns. Coby Bryant, the $40 million safety signing, underwent knee surgery and is expected to miss four to six months. Kyler Gordon remains on PUP with a calf injury. Noah Sewell also remains on PUP while recovering from last season's torn Achilles. Veteran Xavier Woods, signed after Bryant's injury, has been working alongside first-round pick Dillon Thieneman at safety.

The offense has to carry more of the load

Chicago's offense finished ninth in EPA per play. BBMI gave the running game an A, based on a third-place finish in EPA per rush, and the offensive line an A, with the league's second-best stuff rate.

Caleb Williams set the franchise single-season passing record with 3,942 yards and threw 27 touchdowns against seven interceptions. His 1.2% interception rate ranked second among qualified quarterbacks, behind only Michael Penix Jr. BBMI graded Williams B-, with his +0.119 EPA per dropback ranking 20th.

That is the Williams question in miniature. He protected the football at an elite level and delivered repeatedly late in games, but his overall efficiency remained closer to the middle of the league. A jump into the top 10 would give Chicago its best chance to absorb regression on defense.

The receiving group looks different without D.J. Moore, who was traded to Buffalo in March. Rome Odunze enters the season as the top outside receiver. Colston Loveland led the Bears with 713 receiving yards as a rookie, then added 193 yards in two playoff games, the most by a rookie tight end in a single postseason since at least 1960. Luther Burden III returned to limited practice on August 26 after missing nearly three weeks with a groin injury.

The running game returns D'Andre Swift, who set career highs with 1,087 rushing yards, 4.9 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns. Kyle Monangai added 947 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, though he entered the final week of August dealing with a knee injury.

The line also changed. Drew Dalman's retirement created an opening at center, which Chicago filled by trading for Garrett Bradbury. He will play between Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, with Darnell Wright at right tackle.

Left tackle remains unsettled. Ozzy Trapilo, recovering from the ruptured patellar tendon he suffered in the playoffs, was activated from PUP on August 16 and has returned to practice. Braxton Jones, Kiran Amegadjie and Jedrick Wills Jr. also remain in the competition, and Ben Johnson had not named a Week 1 starter as of August 27.

Week 1, and the model's first Bears projection

Chicago opens at Carolina on September 13. Most sportsbooks have listed the game at Bears by 2.5. BBMI projects Chicago by 2.6 points and lists the Bears as its straight-up selection.

The arithmetic is straightforward. BBMI rates Chicago +1.6 and Carolina -3.0, a neutral-field difference of 4.6 points. Moving the game to Carolina cuts the projection to 2.6, implying roughly two points of home-field value.

The games that matter

Chicago has five primetime games and two additional standalone appearances.

What it adds up to

BBMI ranks Chicago 15th, projects 9.3 wins and places the Bears just outside its mean NFC playoff field. That is a step back from an 11-6 division title, but it is not a prediction that the Bears will collapse.

The case for Chicago starts with the offense. It finished ninth in EPA per play, ran the ball well and returns a quarterback who set the franchise passing record in his second season. Williams, Loveland, Odunze and Burden are all young enough to improve.

The concern is that the offense may need to improve just to keep the team's overall results in the same neighborhood. The Bears are unlikely to repeat a plus-22 turnover margin. Several of their top takeaway producers are gone. The pass rush still depends heavily on Sweat, internal development and players returning from major injuries.

That is why the simulations spread from seven wins to 12. If Williams turns his late-game production into top-10 efficiency and the line stays healthy, Chicago can return to the playoffs. If the turnover margin falls sharply and the pass rush remains near the bottom of the league, nine wins may be the more realistic target.

The regression case is hard to ignore. BBMI's projection puts a number on it: 9.3 wins, with almost even odds of reaching the postseason.

BBMI is expanding its NFL coverage as the season approaches. Chicago is the third NFC North team previewed. Model ratings are preseason estimates and will update as 2026 games are played.