NFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#20
BBMI rank
-0.8
Rating
7.9–9.1
Proj record
37%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.
Next game
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Cleveland Browns
SUN SEP 20 • 12:00 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
—
Model line
-8.5
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at CINL 27–33#7+3.534%
at CINSep 20vs CLESun 12:00 PM#30-8.5
vs CLESep 27
vs MINSun 3:05 PM#18-1.5
vs MINOct 4
vs GBSun 12:00 PM#12+1.5
vs GBOct 8
at DALThu 7:15 PM#16+3.5
at DALOct 18
vs PITSun 12:00 PM#19-1.5
vs PITOct 25
at CARSun 12:00 PM#25-1.5
at CARNov 1
vs ATLSun 12:00 PM#26-4.5
vs ATLNov 8
at CHISun 7:20 PM#15+3.5
at CHINov 22
at DETSun 12:00 PM#4+4.5
at DETNov 30vs CARMon 7:15 PM#25-3.5
vs CARDec 6
vs LACSun 12:00 PM#11+1.5
vs LACDec 13
at BALSun 12:00 PM#2+6.0
at BALDec 20
vs NOSun 12:00 PM#22-3.5
vs NODec 27at ATLSun 12:00 PM#26-1.5
at ATLJan 3
vs LARSun 12:00 PM#1+4.5
vs LARJan 10at NOSun 12:00 PM#22-1.5
at NORanking over time
no series publishedThe weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Win the NFC South28%
Make the playoffs37%
No. 1 seed (bye)1%
Reach the Super Bowl2%
Win the Super Bowl1%
Regular-season wins
middle half of sims7.9
456789101112
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 9 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 5 to 10.5. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.004#22
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.045#20
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.074#19
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.070#16
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.098#19
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.111#10
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.4#9
Projected wins7.9#21
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
BBMI picks on the Buccaneers
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on TB
1–0
Picks against
+0.9u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.