AFC EAST • 2026 SEASON
Buffalo Bills
#2
BBMI rank
+4.7
Rating
12.6–4.4
Proj record
98%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Baltimore Ravens
SUN NOV 1 • 12:00 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Buffalo Bills
Model assumes: Lamar Jackson (BAL, Q) v Josh Allen (BUF)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at HOUW 36–31#21-1.053%
at HOUSep 17
vs DETW 41–31#9-5.558%
vs DETSep 27
vs LACW 24–16#30-7.065%
vs LACOct 4
vs NEL 26–29#11-7.071%
vs NEOct 12
at LARW 37–34#13+3.539%
at LAROct 18
at LVW 33–30#23-5.073%
at LVNov 1vs BALSun 12:00 PM#14-3.0Premium
vs BALNov 9
at MINMon 7:15 PM#3-2.5Premium
at MINNov 15
at NYJSun 12:00 PM#27-7.0Premium
at NYJNov 22
vs MIASun 12:00 PM#31-11.5Premium
vs MIANov 26
vs KCThu 7:20 PM#4-2.5Premium
vs KCDec 6at NESun 3:25 PM#11-1.0Premium
at NEDec 13
at GBSun 7:20 PM#15+1.5Premium
at GBDec 19
vs CHISat 7:20 PM#8-3.5Premium
vs CHIDec 25
at DENFri 3:30 PM#5-1.5Premium
at DENJan 3at MIASun 12:00 PM#31-7.5Premium
at MIAJan 10vs NYJSun 12:00 PM#27-10.0Premium
vs NYJModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#1#2#3#4#5
#2
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #207-28 #309-15 #309-22 #209-29 #110-06 #210-13 #210-20 #210-27 #2
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the AFC East85%
Make the playoffs98%
No. 1 seed (bye)43%
Reach the Super Bowl31%
Win the Super Bowl17%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
12.6
10111213141516
Middle half of the simulations: 12 to 13 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 11 to 14.5. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.206#1
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.148#32
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.329#1
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.031#3
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.264#29
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.076#23
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.4#14
Projected wins12.6#2
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Bills
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on BUF
2–4
Picks against
-2.2u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 6 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.