AFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Houston Texans
#21
BBMI rank
+2.2
Rating
7.8–9.2
Proj record
19%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Houston Texans
SUN NOV 8 • 3:05 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Los Angeles Chargers
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
vs BUFL 31–36#2+1.048%
vs BUFSep 20
vs CINL 6–20#7-2.555%
vs CINSep 27
at INDL 17–19#24-1.560%
at INDOct 4
vs DALL 30–34#20-3.060%
vs DALOct 11
at TENW 26–3#32-6.567%
at TENOct 18
at JAXW 34–31#10+2.544%
at JAXOct 25
vs NYGL 21–27#17-10.072%
vs NYGNov 8at LACSun 3:05 PM#30-3.5Premium
at LACNov 15
at CLESun 12:00 PM#16-4.5Premium
at CLENov 19vs INDThu 7:15 PM#24-4.5Premium
vs INDNov 29
vs BALSun 12:00 PM#14-1.0Premium
vs BALDec 6
at PITSun 7:20 PM#12-1.5Premium
at PITDec 13
at WASSun 12:00 PM#26-1.5Premium
at WASDec 20vs JAXSun 12:00 PM#10-3.0Premium
vs JAXDec 24
at PHIThu 7:15 PM#29+2.5Premium
at PHIJan 4
at GBMon 7:15 PM#15+2.5Premium
at GBJan 10vs TENSun 12:00 PM#32-7.0Premium
vs TENModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#5#10#15#20#25
#21
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #1407-28 #1409-15 #709-22 #1009-29 #1810-06 #2310-13 #2110-20 #1810-27 #21
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the AFC South11%
Make the playoffs19%
No. 1 seed (bye)0%
Reach the Super Bowl1%
Win the Super Bowl1%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
7.8
567891011
Middle half of the simulations: 7 to 9 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 6 to 10. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.033#13
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.047#24
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.141#11
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.167#25
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.102#21
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.045#28
Schedule strength (opp rating)-0.8#30
Projected wins7.8#19
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Texans
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on HOU
3–4
Picks against
-1.3u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.