AFC SOUTH • 2026 SEASON
Indianapolis Colts
#24
BBMI rank
-2.5
Rating
6.7–10.3
Proj record
6%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are current through week 7. They come from the week 8 season simulation, built 2026-10-28, and are based on games played and a preseason market prior that fades as results come in.
Next game
Game Picks →Last updated:
Indianapolis Colts
SUN NOV 1 • 12:00 PM CT
Premium
projected score
Jacksonville Jaguars
Model assumes: Daniel Jones (IND) v Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesLast updated:
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
vs BALL 23–41#14+3.035%
vs BALSep 20
at KCL 30–33#4+5.532%
at KCSep 27
vs HOUW 19–17#21+1.540%
vs HOUOct 4
at WASW 30–13#26-5.063%
at WASOct 11
at PITL 22–34#12+3.050%
at PITOct 18
vs TENL 20–26#32-6.577%
vs TENOct 25
at MINL 10–16#3+7.034%
at MINNov 1at JAXSun 12:00 PM#10+10.0Premium
at JAXNov 8
vs DALSun 12:00 PM#20+4.0Premium
vs DALNov 15
vs MIASun 12:00 PM#31-6.5Premium
vs MIANov 19at HOUThu 7:15 PM#21+4.5Premium
at HOUNov 29
vs NYGSun 12:00 PM#17-2.5Premium
vs NYGDec 13
at PHISun 12:00 PM#29+5.5Premium
at PHIDec 20at TENSun 12:00 PM#32-1.5Premium
at TENDec 27
vs CINSun 12:00 PM#7+1.5Premium
vs CINJan 3
at CLESun 12:00 PM#16-2.5Premium
at CLEJan 10vs JAXSun 12:00 PM#10-1.5Premium
vs JAXModel lines, edges and win probabilities for games that have not kicked off are premium. Members see them on the NFL picks board; every number goes public at kickoff.
Ranking over time
weekly · place of 32#15#20#25
#24
07-1409-2910-27
07-14 #2207-28 #2109-15 #2009-22 #1909-29 #1710-06 #1510-13 #1710-20 #2110-27 #24
9 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing, ranked the way the rankings board ranks: by BBMI Rating. Each entry is that Tuesday’s place.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Last updated:
Win the AFC South4%
Make the playoffs6%
No. 1 seed (bye)0%
Reach the Super Bowl0%
Win the Super Bowl0%
Regular-season wins
middle half of simsLast updated:
6.7
45678910
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 8 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 5 to 9. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.063#27
Defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.032#21
Pass offense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.130#31
Rush offense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.030#4
Pass defense 2026 (EPA/play)+0.084#18
Rush defense 2026 (EPA/play)-0.046#27
Schedule strength (opp rating)-0.8#29
Projected wins6.7#24
These are 2026 figures, through week 7. EPA per scrimmage play (pass or rush, kneels and spikes excluded), measured from this season’s play-by-play and republished every Tuesday with the rating and the playoff odds. Defense is EPA allowed per play, so less is better.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
Early in a season these are small samples: one week is a single opponent, so a rank can move a long way on one game.
BBMI picks on the Colts
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on IND
2–5
Picks against
-3.2u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 7 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.