AFC WEST • 2026 SEASON
Los Angeles Chargers
#11
BBMI rank
+3.2
Rating
9.8–7.2
Proj record
63%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.
Next game
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Las Vegas Raiders
SUN SEP 20 • 3:05 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Los Angeles Chargers
—
Model line
-7.0
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
vs ARIL 14–26#32-9.586%
vs ARISep 20vs LVSun 3:05 PM#28-7.0
vs LVSep 27
at BUFSun 12:00 PM#3+3.0
at BUFOct 4
at SEASun 3:25 PM#5+3.0
at SEAOct 11
vs DENSun 3:05 PM#13-2.5
vs DENOct 18
at KCSun 3:25 PM#8+2.5
at KCNov 1
at LARSun 3:05 PM#1+4.5
at LARNov 8
vs HOUSun 3:05 PM#14-2.5
vs HOUNov 16
at BALMon 7:15 PM#2+3.0
at BALNov 22
vs NYJSun 3:05 PM#29-9.5
vs NYJNov 29
vs NESun 7:20 PM#10-2.5
vs NEDec 6
at TBSun 12:00 PM#20-1.5
at TBDec 13at LVSun 3:05 PM#28-5.5
at LVDec 17
vs SFThu 7:15 PM#6-2.5
vs SFDec 27
at MIASun 12:00 PM#31-7.0
at MIAJan 3vs KCSun 12:00 PM#8-1.5
vs KCJan 10at DENSun 12:00 PM#13+1.5
at DENRanking over time
no series publishedThe weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Win the AFC West26%
Make the playoffs63%
No. 1 seed (bye)7%
Reach the Super Bowl8%
Win the Super Bowl4%
Regular-season wins
middle half of sims9.8
678910111213
Middle half of the simulations: 8 to 11 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 7 to 12. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.002#21
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.093#6
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.082#17
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.082#20
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.031#9
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.136#4
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.3#11
Projected wins9.8#13
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
BBMI picks on the Chargers
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on LAC
0–1
Picks against
-1.0u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.