Team Pages/NFC North/Detroit Lions
DET
NFC NORTH • 2026 SEASON

Detroit Lions

Record 1-0vs line 0–1 ATSLast W 31–30 vs NONext Sep 17 at BUF
#4
BBMI rank
+4.8
Rating
11.5–5.5
Proj record
86%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.

Next game

Game Picks →
DET
Detroit Lions
#4 • +4.8 • NFC North
THU SEP 17 • 7:15 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Buffalo Bills
#3 • +5.2 • home
BUF
—
Model line
+3.5
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board, week by week as it prices
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
NOvs NO
W 31–30#22-7.072%
Sep 17
BUFat BUF
Thu 7:15 PM#3+3.5
Sep 27
NYJvs NYJ
Sun 12:00 PM#29-9.5
Oct 4
CARat CAR
Sun 7:20 PM#25-3.0
Oct 11
ARIat ARI
Sun 3:25 PM#32-8.5
Oct 25
GBvs GB
Sun 3:25 PM#12-2.5
Nov 1
MINvs MIN
Sun 12:00 PM#18-4.5
Nov 8
MIAat MIA
Sun 12:00 PM#31-6.5
Nov 15
NEvs NE
Sun 8:30 AM#100.0
Nov 22
TBvs TB
Sun 12:00 PM#20-4.5
Nov 26
CHIvs CHI
Thu 12:00 PM#15-2.5
Dec 6
ATLat ATL
Sun 12:00 PM#26-3.5
Dec 13
TENvs TEN
Sun 12:00 PM#27-7.5
Dec 20
MINat MIN
Sun 7:20 PM#18-2.5
Dec 28
NYGvs NYG
Mon 7:15 PM#24-4.5
Jan 3
CHIat CHI
Sun 3:25 PM#15+1.5
Jan 10
GBat GB
Sun 12:00 PM#12+2.5

Ranking over time

no series published
The weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Win the NFC North60%
Make the playoffs86%
No. 1 seed (bye)23%
Reach the Super Bowl18%
Win the Super Bowl10%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
11.5
89101112131415
Middle half of the simulations: 10 to 13 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 9 to 14. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.026#16
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.024#18
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.185#7
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.088#21
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.061#14
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.037#26
Schedule strength (opp rating)-1.5#32
Projected wins11.5#2
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.

BBMI picks on the Lions

2026 • ATS
0–0
Picks on DET
0–1
Picks against
-1.0u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.