NFC EAST • 2026 SEASON
Washington Commanders
#23
BBMI rank
-1.8
Rating
7.2–9.8
Proj record
15%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.
Next game
Game Picks →Washington Commanders
SUN SEP 20 • 3:25 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Dallas Cowboys
—
Model line
+4.0
Market line
—
Edge
—
Win probability
Schedule & projections
win prob from the board, week by week as it pricesDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 13
at PHIL 22–24#9+6.032%
at PHISep 20at DALSun 3:25 PM#16+4.0
at DALSep 27
vs SEASun 12:00 PM#5+3.5
vs SEAOct 4
vs INDSun 8:30 AM#21-1.5
vs INDOct 11
vs NYGSun 12:00 PM#24-2.5
vs NYGOct 19
at SFMon 7:15 PM#6+5.5
at SFNov 1vs PHISun 7:20 PM#9+2.5
vs PHINov 8
vs LARSun 12:00 PM#1+5.5
vs LARNov 12at NYGThu 7:15 PM#24+1.5
at NYGNov 23
vs CINMon 7:15 PM#7+1.5
vs CINNov 29
at ARISun 3:25 PM#32-4.5
at ARIDec 6
at TENSun 12:00 PM#27-1.5
at TENDec 13
vs HOUSun 12:00 PM#14+1.5
vs HOUDec 20
vs ATLSun 12:00 PM#26-3.5
vs ATLDec 27
at MINSun 12:00 PM#18+2.5
at MINJan 3
at JAXSun 12:00 PM#17+3.5
at JAXJan 10vs DALSun 12:00 PM#16+1.5
vs DALRanking over time
no series publishedThe weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.
Playoff odds
Pulse →Win the NFC East6%
Make the playoffs15%
No. 1 seed (bye)1%
Reach the Super Bowl1%
Win the Super Bowl0%
Regular-season wins
middle half of sims7.2
4567891011
Middle half of the simulations: 6 to 9 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 5 to 10. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.
Profile
Offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.015#18
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.202#32
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.075#18
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.014#8
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.297#32
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.018#28
Schedule strength (opp rating)+0.4#8
Projected wins7.2#24
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 2 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.
BBMI picks on the Commanders
2026 • ATS0–0
Picks on WAS
1–0
Picks against
+0.9u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 1 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.