Team Pages/AFC West/Kansas City Chiefs
KC
AFC WEST • 2026 SEASON

Kansas City Chiefs

Record 0-0vs line —Last 2025: 6-11Next Sep 14 vs DEN
#8
BBMI rank
+3.4
Rating
10.2–6.8
Proj record
70%
Make playoffs
Rating, projected record and playoff odds are preseason. They come from the week 1 season simulation, built 2026-07-19, and are seeded from market win-total priors rather than from games played. The schedule, the lines and the results below are current.

Next game

Game Picks →
DEN
Denver Broncos
#13 • +2.6 • AFC West
MON SEP 14 • 7:15 PM CT
not projected yet
projected score
Kansas City Chiefs
#8 • +3.4 • home
KC
-2.1
Model line
-2.0
Market line
+0.1
Edge
57%
Win probability
Kansas City Chiefs 57%Denver Broncos 43%

Schedule & projections

win prob from the board, week by week as it prices
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKLINEWIN %WIN PROB
Sep 14
DENvs DEN
Mon 7:15 PM#13-2.057%
Sep 20
INDvs IND
Sun 7:20 PM#21-6.5
Sep 27
MIAat MIA
Sun 12:00 PM#31-7.5
Oct 4
LVat LV
Sun 3:25 PM#28-5.5
Oct 18
LACvs LAC
Sun 3:25 PM#11-2.5
Oct 25
SEAat SEA
Sun 7:20 PM#5+3.0
Nov 1
DENat DEN
Sun 3:25 PM#13+1.5
Nov 8
NYJvs NYJ
Sun 12:00 PM#29-9.5
Nov 15
ATLat ATL
Sun 12:00 PM#26-4.5
Nov 22
ARIvs ARI
Sun 12:00 PM#32-11.5
Nov 26
BUFat BUF
Thu 7:20 PM#3+2.5
Dec 3
LARat LAR
Thu 7:15 PM#1+3.5
Dec 13
CINat CIN
Sun 3:25 PM#7+1.5
Dec 21
NEvs NE
Mon 7:15 PM#10-2.5
Dec 27
SFvs SF
Sun 3:25 PM#6-3.0
Jan 3
LACat LAC
Sun 12:00 PM#11+1.5
Jan 10
LVvs LV
Sun 12:00 PM#28-8.5

Ranking over time

no series published
The weekly store is running for this sport, but the rating it freezes has not been republished since the preseason build, so there are not yet two Tuesdays to plot.

Playoff odds

Pulse →
Win the AFC West38%
Make the playoffs70%
No. 1 seed (bye)9%
Reach the Super Bowl10%
Win the Super Bowl5%

Regular-season wins

middle half of sims
10.2
7891011121314
Middle half of the simulations: 9 to 11 wins. The wider published interval, the 10th to the 90th, is 8 to 12.5. The sim publishes those two percentiles only, so the middle half is derived from them rather than read.

Profile

Offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.007#23
Defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.013#15
Pass offense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.113#12
Rush offense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.030#11
Pass defense 2025 (EPA/play)+0.061#15
Rush defense 2025 (EPA/play)-0.088#16
Schedule strength (opp rating)-0.2#22
Projected wins10.2#9
These are 2025 figures and they fill in as 2026 is played. EPA per play is produced per season, so a 2026 column replaces this one once enough games exist to compute it. It is shown as last season’s rather than left blank because a measured figure from the season just gone says more about a roster in week 1 than an empty card does.
The 2026 feed does carry offense and defense fields, and they are not used: measured across all 32 clubs, offRating equals defRating and both equal the overall rating halved, so they separate nothing. The rankings board drops them for the same reason.

BBMI picks on the Chiefs

2026 • ATS
0–0
Picks on KC
0–0
Picks against
—
Net, flat 1u
ON took this club, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport stores the side it took by name, so neither is inferred. 0 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.