Detroit Is the NFC North Favorite. The First Month Will Test It.

Dan Campbell needed only three words to grade Detroit's 2025 season: "a freaking F."

The Lions had been 7-4 before losing four of their final six. Their playoff hopes ended on Christmas Day in Minnesota, where six turnovers turned into a 23-10 loss. Detroit beat Chicago in the finale, but 9-8 was still good for last place in the NFC North.

Nine months later, the expectations are right back where they were before the collapse.

BBMI rates Detroit fourth in the NFL, projects 11.5 wins and gives the Lions a 60% chance to win the division. Only the Rams are projected to win more games in the NFC. The core of a contender is still here: Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Aidan Hutchinson.

The question is whether that core can carry a roster that looks considerably different around it. Detroit will start the season without both starting safeties. Penei Sewell is changing sides, a rookie is taking over at right tackle and the center signed in free agency is already on reserve/injured. Hutchinson is coming off a 1,005-snap season, and one of the veterans brought in to lighten his workload is hurt.

Detroit may be the favorite in the North, but it will not get much time to settle in.

Why Detroit still looks like a contender

The 9-8 record hid how well the Lions played for long stretches. Detroit scored 481 points, fourth in the NFL, and outscored its opponents by 68. Pro Football Reference's scoring-based estimate had the Lions playing like a 10-win team.

Chicago won the division at 11-6 with a plus-26 point differential. Detroit finished two games behind the Bears despite more than doubling their scoring margin.

That does not erase the losses, especially the four inside the division. It does explain why the market and the model were willing to look past the final record.

The gap is not subtle. Detroit rates nearly two points better than Green Bay and more than three points better than Chicago on a neutral field.

BBMI 20,000-season simulation · middle 80% range.

The offense has to carry the opening month

Goff gives Detroit its best chance to avoid a slow start. He threw for 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns and only eight interceptions last season, finishing eighth in BBMI's EPA per dropback. St. Brown caught 117 passes for 1,401 yards and 11 scores, and no receiver produced more yards-after-catch EPA.

That combination should keep the offense functional even while the line finds its footing. The difficult part is figuring out who will protect Goff and open lanes for Gibbs.

Taylor Decker is gone after ten seasons at left tackle, and Graham Glasgow was also released. Sewell has moved from right tackle to replace Decker on the left. First-round pick Blake Miller, the 17th selection out of Clemson, is expected to start on the right.

The plan at center changed during camp. Cade Mays fractured his wrist and was placed on reserve/injured with a designation to return. Juice Scruggs, acquired from Houston in the David Montgomery trade, is now the likely Week 1 starter.

That is a lot of movement for an offense built on Goff getting the ball out on schedule.

Gibbs remains one of the league's most dangerous backs. He ran for 1,223 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, but Detroit ranked only 19th in rushing EPA and 17th in stuff rate. The highlights were better than the down-to-down efficiency. Losing Decker, Glasgow and Montgomery will not make that easier.

Isiah Pacheco was signed to take some of Montgomery's work. His sprained MCL is no longer the concern, but a back injury has left his status for the opener uncertain.

Four games without Branch and Joseph

The offense will have to score because Detroit's secondary opens the season without its two best safeties.

Branch is still recovering from the torn Achilles he suffered in December. Joseph is working back from a knee injury. Both were placed on the reserve physically unable to perform list, which means neither can play before Week 5.

A new rule allows them to begin a 21-day practice window after Detroit's second game, but that does not guarantee either will be ready when first eligible. Campbell said in July that Branch's recovery was on schedule and later described Joseph as being on "the Branch plan." He has not given a firm return date for either.

Chuck Clark and Avonte Maddox are expected to start in their place. Both are experienced, but neither offers Branch's ability to play near the line of scrimmage or Joseph's range on the back end.

The schedule gives Detroit some room. Three of the first four opponents rank 22nd or worse in BBMI's preseason ratings. The outlier is Buffalo, which gets the Lions at home on a short week.

New Orleans is the kind of opener Detroit should control. BBMI projects the Lions by 7.3 points, the largest opening-week margin for any NFC North team. More importantly, the Saints game gives a rebuilt line and replacement secondary one Sunday at Ford Field before the Thursday-night trip to Buffalo.

If Detroit reaches Week 5 at 3-1, the absences will have been manageable. A split or worse would put pressure on Branch and Joseph to return quickly and leave the Lions chasing the division before their defense is whole.

Hutchinson needs help

Detroit's 49 sacks last season tied for fourth in the NFL. That total makes the pass rush look deeper than it was.

The Lions ranked 26th in ESPN's pass-rush win rate at 32%. BBMI reached a similar conclusion, grading the rush B-minus and ranking its 7.2% sack rate 20th. Detroit finished plays when pressure arrived, but it did not beat blocks often enough.

Hutchinson supplied most of the danger. In his first full season back from the broken leg that ended his 2024 campaign, he recorded 14.5 sacks, 35 quarterback hits and an NFL-high 100 pressures. He made his second Pro Bowl and earned second-team All-Pro honors.

He also played 91% of Detroit's defensive snaps.

The Lions signed D.J. Wonnum, traded up for Michigan edge rusher Derrick Moore in the second round and brought back Levi Onwuzurike. Payton Turner was also part of the plan before a back injury landed him on reserve/injured.

Hutchinson says he enters his fifth season with an answer for everything opponents can show him. Detroit needs the players around him to force offenses to ask harder questions.

The North still owns the argument

Detroit can point to the point differential, the quarterback and the returning stars. Green Bay and Minnesota can point to the scoreboard.

The Lions went 2-4 in the NFC North last season. Green Bay beat them 27-13 in the opener and 31-24 at Ford Field. Minnesota won 27-24 in Detroit, then ended the Lions' playoff hopes with the 23-10 Christmas loss. Detroit's only division wins came against Chicago.

BBMI is betting that Detroit's returning core matters more than last year's 2-4 division record. Green Bay and Minnesota have a simpler response: beat us.

Detroit will get the chance to prove it late. Green Bay and Minnesota visit Ford Field in Weeks 7 and 8, and Chicago returns on Thanksgiving. Then the Lions play three of their final four on the road inside the division: Minnesota in Week 15, Chicago in Week 17 and Green Bay in Week 18.

That closing stretch is not an interesting footnote on the schedule. It is probably where the North will be won.

The ceiling is still January

BBMI's mean projection gives Detroit the No. 2 seed in the NFC, behind only the Rams. Its projected bracket sends the Lions past Green Bay and Philadelphia before a loss to Los Angeles in the conference championship game. Detroit's 9.7% chance to win the Super Bowl is third in the league.

That ceiling is believable because the most important pieces are still in place. Goff protects the football. St. Brown turns short completions into first downs. Gibbs can change a game with one crease. Hutchinson can wreck a passing plan by himself.

The risk comes from asking those players to cover too many holes. The line has three new assignments in the middle of a veteran quarterback's window. The secondary begins without its two best safeties. The pass rush still needs to prove it can function when Hutchinson takes a breather. Green Bay and Minnesota already showed they can beat this team.

Eleven or 12 wins is a reasonable expectation. So is another fight for the division that lasts until January.

The Lions do not have to look like a finished contender against New Orleans. They do have to protect Goff, avoid giving away games they are favored to win and arrive at the division schedule with Branch and Joseph on the way back. If they do that, the 9-8 finish will look like a detour. If they do not, last season will look more like a warning.

Detroit is the fourth and final team in BBMI's NFC North preview series. Preseason model ratings will update once 2026 games are played.