NFL · 2026 Season · Projected standings & odds

2026 NFL Season Projections.

Projected final records, division and playoff odds, and Super Bowl probabilities from 10,000 simulations of the full season — the model’s view of where 2026 is headed before a snap is played.

Model projections · 20,000 sims

AFC East

Team	Proj. rec	Range	Div	Playoff	SB
Bills	10.8–6.2	8.0–13.0	65%	82%	9.1%
Patriots	10.0–7.0	7.5–12.5	35%	69%	4.2%
Jets	5.8–11.2	3.5–8.0	1%	4%	0.0%
Dolphins	3.5–13.5	1.5–5.5	0%	0%	0.0%

AFC North

Team	Proj. rec	Range	Div	Playoff	SB
Ravens	11.4–5.6	9.0–14.0	57%	87%	10.8%
Bengals	11.0–6.0	8.5–13.5	38%	82%	6.5%
Steelers	8.1–8.9	6.0–11.0	4%	29%	0.6%
Browns	5.5–11.5	3.0–8.0	0%	3%	0.0%

AFC South

Team	Proj. rec	Range	Div	Playoff	SB
Texans	9.8–7.2	7.0–12.0	59%	67%	3.7%
Jaguars	8.7–8.3	6.0–11.0	23%	43%	1.2%
Colts	7.8–9.2	5.0–10.0	15%	27%	0.4%
Titans	6.1–10.9	4.0–8.5	3%	7%	0.0%

AFC West

Team	Proj. rec	Range	Div	Playoff	SB
Chiefs	10.2–6.8	8.0–12.5	38%	70%	4.8%
Broncos	9.8–7.2	7.0–12.0	36%	63%	3.4%
Chargers	9.8–7.2	7.0–12.0	26%	63%	3.7%
Raiders	5.8–11.2	3.5–8.0	1%	4%	0.0%

Range = 80% projected-win interval (10th–90th percentile). Div / Playoff / SB = simulated probability of winning the division, making the playoffs, and winning the Super Bowl. Preseason basis: market win-total prior + 2025 QB depth charts (refreshed late August). Methodology