Men's Tournament Seed and Result Probabilities
| Last Four In | First Four Out |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M |  Cincinnati |
 Texas |  San Diego State |
 VCU |  Tulsa |
 New Mexico |  UCF |
Methodology: Seedings are projected using NET rankings. Probabilities show the likelihood each team reaches that round, based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations using BBMI win probabilities. Bracket lines show the most likely team to advance at each stage.
🏆 Final Four & ChampionSemifinal → Finalist → Champion
Final Four
Championship Game
Champion
East Region
Play-In
Round of 64
Round of 32
Sweet 16
Elite 8
Final Four
1Duke89.8%
8Miami (FL)57.1%
5Tennessee61.6%
4Vanderbilt65.7%
6St. John's56.7%
3UConn62.9%
7Saint Louis64.4%
2Iowa State79.7%1Duke70.8%4Vanderbilt39.1%3UConn33.8%2Iowa State49.9%1Duke54.1%2Iowa State29.1%1Duke39.7%Midwest Region
Play-In
Round of 64
Round of 32
Sweet 16
Elite 8
Final Four
1Michigan87.4%
8Ohio State55.9%
5Arkansas66.8%
4Louisville62.0%
6Brigham Young53.8%
3Purdue73.4%
7Iowa58.2%
2Illinois74.0%1Michigan71.2%5Arkansas40.3%3Purdue48.5%2Illinois51.5%1Michigan56.3%2Illinois31.9%1Michigan41.9%South Region
Play-In
Round of 64
Round of 32
Sweet 16
Elite 8
Final Four
1Florida74.2%
8Georgia55.5%
5Alabama50.5%
4Virginia61.5%
6North Carolina57.5%
3Michigan State78.4%
7Wisconsin55.7%
2Houston65.8%1Florida49.5%4Virginia33.5%3Michigan State51.5%2Houston37.1%1Florida31.4%3Michigan State33.2%1Florida18.9%West Region
Play-In
Round of 64
Round of 32
Sweet 16
Elite 8
Final Four
1Arizona93.7%
8Utah State50.8%
5Kansas58.5%
4Texas Tech52.3%
6Saint Mary's73.5%
3Nebraska70.4%
10TCU53.2%
2Gonzaga78.4%1Arizona71.3%5Kansas36.5%3Nebraska45.2%2Gonzaga52.2%1Arizona57.2%2Gonzaga30.2%1Arizona41.5%