NCAA BASKETBALL · NCAA TOURNAMENT · 2026 COMPLETE

Bracket Pulse.

Sixty-eight teams, 31 automatic bids and 37 at-large, seeded on a full S-curve and placed into four regions. The 2026 tournament is finished, so this page shows the model’s own board as it stood on Selection Sunday against the bracket that actually played out. Michigan won it, having been given 20% on the morning of the draw. The 2026-27 projection appears here once that season is simulated.

Model odds frozen March 15, 2026 · results from the completed 2026 bracket · 2026-27 tips off Nov 3
68
Field · 31 auto, 37 at-large
Michigan
2026 champion · 20% at the draw
23
Teams the model gave 25%+ to the Sweet 16
8
Teams in the First Four
HOW TO READ THIS

Every percentage on this page is the model’s chance of a team reaching that round at all, published on March 15, 2026 before a game was played, not conditional on any bracket. Every winner and score is the recorded result. Those two are deliberately shown together, because the point of a settled bracket is the comparison. The file this page used to read for its odds column now carries the finished tournament rather than a forecast: across all 68 teams every published value is exactly 0 or exactly 1, which is an outcome, not a probability. Those flags are used here only for what they really are. A conference’s champion takes its automatic bid before any at-large place is filled, which is why a 15 seed sits in the field while a better team misses. Four teams on lines 11 and 16 played into the bracket in Dayton, listed in the sidebar.

The Final Four

Indianapolis · percentages are the model’s odds at the draw
EAST REGION
1Duke37%
3Michigan State14%
5St. John's10%
2UConn7%

UConn won the region at 7%, outside the model's top three here.

WEST REGION
1Arizona42%
2Purdue16%
3Gonzaga13%

Arizona won the region at 42%.

SOUTH REGION
1Florida19%
3Illinois18%
4Nebraska14%

Illinois won the region at 18%.

MIDWEST REGION
1Michigan45%
2Iowa State14%
3Virginia7%

Michigan won the region at 45%.

National Semifinal
2UConn7%
3Illinois18%
Final71-62
National Semifinal
1Michigan45%
1Arizona42%
Final91-73
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
1Michigan33%
2UConn3%
Final69-63
33% the model’s chance of reaching that round at all, published before the tournamentHighlighted side is the team that actually won, with the final scoreRegion blocks show the three the model liked most to reach Indianapolis, not a full 16-team draw

The projected S-curve

68 places · four regions assigned after the lines are set
LINEEASTWESTSOUTHMIDWEST
1DukeArizonaFloridaMichigan
2UConnPurdueHoustonIowa State
3Michigan StateGonzagaIllinoisVirginia
4KansasArkansasNebraskaAlabama
5St. John'sWisconsinVanderbiltTexas Tech
6LouisvilleBrigham YoungNorth CarolinaTennessee
7UCLAMiami (FL)Saint Mary'sKentucky
8Ohio StateVillanovaClemsonGeorgia
9TCUUtah StateIowaSaint Louis
10UCFMissouriTexas A&MSanta Clara
11South FloridaNC StateFFTexasFFVCUMiami (OH)FFSMUFF
12Northern IowaHigh PointMcNeeseAkron
13California BaptistHawaiiTroyHofstra
14North Dakota StateKennesaw StatePennsylvaniaWright State
15FurmanQueens UniversityIdahoTennessee State
16SienaLIULehighFFPrairie View A&MFFHowardFFUMBCFF

Lines 1 through 4 are the protected seeds, which is the line worth arguing about; from line 11 down, most places belong to a conference’s automatic bid rather than to an at-large resume. Two cells hold a pair: the four FF games on lines 11 and 16 played into the bracket in Dayton.

Title contenders

all 68 teams · odds as of March 15, 2026
#TEAMR32SWEET 16ELITE 8FINAL 4TITLERESULT
1Michigan1Midwest91%70%58%45%20%Champion
2Arizona1West93%74%56%42%18%Final Four
3Duke1East89%68%51%37%14%Elite Eight
4Florida1South88%59%33%19%4%Round of 32
5Illinois3South82%52%33%18%4%Final Four
6Purdue2West81%55%35%16%4%Elite Eight
7Michigan State3East75%47%31%14%3%Sweet 16
8Iowa State2Midwest79%54%33%14%3%Sweet 16
9Gonzaga3West78%57%32%13%3%Round of 32
10Nebraska4South70%41%24%14%3%Sweet 16
11St. John's5East67%42%18%10%2%Sweet 16
12Arkansas4West78%49%18%10%2%Sweet 16
13Vanderbilt5South66%35%18%10%2%Round of 32
14Houston2South75%42%20%10%1%Sweet 16
15UConn2East74%42%20%7%1%Runner-up
16Virginia3Midwest65%36%19%7%1%Round of 32
17Saint Louis9Midwest56%17%10%6%1%Round of 32
18Kansas4East74%36%13%7%1%Round of 32
19Tennessee6Midwest59%32%17%6%<1%Elite Eight
20Saint Mary's7South58%31%14%6%<1%Round of 64
21Alabama4Midwest59%34%10%5%<1%Sweet 16
22Louisville6East51%22%13%5%<1%Round of 32
23UCLA7East65%36%16%6%<1%Round of 32
24Miami (FL)7West62%26%13%5%<1%Round of 32
25VCU11South50%22%11%5%<1%Round of 32
26Wisconsin5West60%29%9%4%<1%Round of 64
27North Carolina6South50%21%12%5%<1%Round of 64
28Utah State9West59%17%8%4%<1%Round of 32
29Ohio State8East54%16%8%4%<1%Round of 64
30South Florida11East49%21%11%4%<1%Round of 64
31Georgia8Midwest44%11%6%3%<1%Round of 64
32Iowa9South52%20%8%4%<1%Elite Eight
33Kentucky7Midwest57%24%11%3%<1%Round of 32
34SMU11Midwest23%11%5%2%<1%First Four
35Texas Tech5Midwest51%23%5%2%<1%Round of 32
36Clemson8South48%18%7%3%<1%Round of 64
37Villanova8West41%8%4%1%<1%Round of 64
38TCU9East46%12%5%2%<1%Round of 32
39Santa Clara10Midwest43%15%6%1%<1%Round of 64
40Texas A&M10South42%20%7%3%<1%Round of 32
41NC State11West36%15%6%2%<1%First Four
42McNeese12South34%13%5%2%<1%Round of 64
43UCF10East35%14%4%<1%<1%Round of 64
44Missouri10West38%12%5%1%<1%Round of 64
45Miami (OH)11Midwest18%8%3%<1%<1%Round of 64
46Northern Iowa12East33%15%4%2%<1%Round of 64
47Akron12Midwest49%22%5%2%<1%Round of 64
48High Point12West40%15%4%1%<1%Round of 32
49Hofstra13Midwest41%21%5%2%<1%Round of 64
50Troy13South30%11%4%1%<1%Round of 64
51Wright State14Midwest35%13%5%1%<1%Round of 64
52Brigham Young6West37%10%2%<1%0%Round of 64
53Texas11West27%10%3%<1%0%Sweet 16
54California Baptist13East26%6%<1%<1%0%Round of 64
55Hawaii13West22%7%1%<1%0%Round of 64
56North Dakota State14East25%9%4%<1%0%Round of 64
57Pennsylvania14South18%5%2%<1%0%Round of 64
58Kennesaw State14West22%9%3%<1%0%Round of 64
59Furman15East26%8%2%<1%0%Round of 64
60Tennessee State15Midwest21%7%2%<1%0%Round of 64
61Idaho15South25%8%2%<1%0%Round of 64
62Queens University15West19%7%2%<1%0%Round of 64
63Siena16East11%4%1%<1%0%Round of 64
64UMBC16Midwest4%<1%<1%<1%0%First Four
65Howard16Midwest5%1%<1%<1%0%Round of 64
66Prairie View A&M16South6%1%<1%0%0%Round of 64
67Lehigh16South7%2%<1%<1%0%First Four
68LIU16West7%2%<1%<1%0%Round of 64

Each column sits strictly below the one to its left, because these are chances of reaching a round at all and the fall between them is that weekend’s attrition. Title odds are flatter here than in any other sport on the site: six rounds of single elimination against a 68-team field held even the model’s strongest team under 20%, where a No. 1 seed in football sits near 28%. That is the tournament, not the model. Result is the round the team actually reached.

The mock carries three more columns this sport cannot fill: proj W-L needs a season simulation, win conf needs a conference for each team and no NCAA feed here records one, and make 68 would read 100% for all 68 rows in a field that is already settled. They are left out rather than filled with a number that means something else, which is also why there is no auto-bid watch card.

Odds are the model’s published pre-tournament probabilities and may not add to 100%. Selection-committee behavior is modeled, not known. Results are the recorded 2026 bracket.