ACC • 2025–26 SEASON
Virginia
#16
BBMI rank
+27.2
Rating
#17
KenPom
#12
NET
Last game
Game Picks →
Tennessee
SUN MAR 22
79 – 72
final score
Virginia
-2.5
Model line
+1.5
Market line
+4.0
Edge · Tracked ATS
59%
Win probability
Virginia 59%Tennessee 41%
The 2025–26 season is complete. The board returns in November.
Schedule & projections
line and win prob from the board, where it priced the gameDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Nov 4
vs RiderW 87–53#357
vs RiderNov 8
vs North Carolina CentralW 81–62#319
vs North Carolina CentralNov 12
vs HamptonW 91–53#307
vs HamptonNov 15
vs MarshallW 104–78#173
vs MarshallNov 21
vs NorthwesternW 83–78#64
vs NorthwesternNov 23
vs ButlerL 73–80#87
vs ButlerNov 28
vs Queens UniversityW 94–69#195
vs Queens UniversityDec 3
at TexasW 88–69#74
at TexasDec 6
vs DaytonW 86–73#34
vs DaytonDec 9
vs Maryland-Eastern ShoreW 84–60#346
vs Maryland-Eastern ShoreDec 20
vs MarylandW 80–72#282
vs MarylandDec 22
vs American UniversityW 95–51#205
vs American UniversityDec 31
at Virginia TechL 85–95#53
at Virginia TechJan 3
at NC StateW 76–61#48
at NC StateJan 7
vs CaliforniaW 84–60#6879–6883%
vs CaliforniaJan 10
vs StanfordW 70–55#12779–6990%
vs StanfordJan 13
at LouisvilleW 79–70#2276–7630%
at LouisvilleJan 17
at SMUW 72–68#3881–7439%
at SMUJan 24
vs North CarolinaL 80–85#3277–7275%
vs North CarolinaJan 27
at Notre DameW 100–97#20180–6877%
at Notre DameJan 31
at Boston CollegeW 73–66#28177–6196%
at Boston CollegeFeb 3
vs PittsburghW 67–47#24079–6698%
vs PittsburghFeb 7
vs SyracuseW 72–59#19980–6789%
vs SyracuseFeb 10
at Florida StateW 61–58#11681–7281%
at Florida StateFeb 14
at Ohio StateW 70–66#2776–7453%
at Ohio StateFeb 18
at Georgia TechW 94–68#22483–6493%
at Georgia TechFeb 21
vs Miami (FL)W 86–83#3177–7280%
vs Miami (FL)Feb 24vs NC StateW 90–61#4880–7370%
vs NC StateFeb 28
at DukeL 51–77#368–7718%
at DukeMar 3
vs Wake ForestW 75–70#7682–7085%
vs Wake ForestMar 7vs Virginia TechW 76–72#5379–6977%
vs Virginia TechMar 12vs NC StateW 81–74#4879–7365%
vs NC StateMar 13vs Miami (FL)W 84–62#3176–7252%
vs Miami (FL)Mar 14vs DukeL 70–74#368–7621%
vs DukeMar 20
vs Wright StateW 82–73#10283–6773%
vs Wright StateMar 22vs TennesseeL 72–79#1770–7259%
vs TennesseeRanking over time
weekly · place of 365#11#15#19#23#25
#16
Jan 27Feb 3Feb 10Feb 17Feb 24Mar 3Mar 10Mar 17Mar 24Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28
14 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing. The series stops where the season did and resumes when the sport does.
NCAA tournament
Pulse →3
Seed
Midwest
Region
Round of 32
Finish
The bracket is resolved, so this is the result rather than a probability. It becomes an odds card again when the file carries fractions.
Regular-season wins
not publishedThis sport has no season simulation, so there is no distribution of win totals to draw.
Profile
Strength of schedule#12
KenPom rank#17
NET rank#12
Quality wins37.0#19
Rebound margin+6.9#10
Turnover margin-0.8#221
Assists per game16.1#34
Three-point margin+0.046#33
The mock asks for offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo and experience. This sport publishes none of them: the feed carries raw shooting and rebound rates, which are not opponent-adjusted efficiency and must not wear that heading. The rankings board drops the same columns for the same reason.
BBMI picks on Virginia
2025–26 • ATS0–2
Picks on Virginia
5–5
Picks against
-2.5u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport does not store the side by name, so it is read from which way the model’s line sits against the market, and a game counts only once it clears the published edge floor. 12 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.