ACC • 2025–26 SEASON
Louisville
#22
BBMI rank
+26.2
Rating
#19
KenPom
#17
NET
Last game
Game Picks →Louisville
SAT MAR 21
69 – 77
final score
Michigan State
+8.5
Model line
+4.5
Market line
-4.0
Edge · Tracked ATS
21%
Win probability
Louisville 21%Michigan State 79%
The 2025–26 season is complete. The board returns in November.
Schedule & projections
line and win prob from the board, where it priced the gameDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Nov 4
vs South Carolina StateW 104–45#360
vs South Carolina StateNov 7
vs Jackson StateW 106–70#356
vs Jackson StateNov 12
vs KentuckyW 96–88#35
vs KentuckyNov 15
vs OhioW 106–81#254
vs OhioNov 21
at CincinnatiW 74–64#50
at CincinnatiNov 25
vs Eastern MichiganW 87–46#268
vs Eastern MichiganNov 27
vs NJITW 104–47#337
vs NJITDec 3
at ArkansasL 80–89#15
at ArkansasDec 6
vs IndianaW 87–78#42
vs IndianaDec 13
vs MemphisW 99–73#206
vs MemphisDec 16
at TennesseeL 62–83#17
at TennesseeDec 20
vs MontanaW 94–54#138
vs MontanaDec 30
at CaliforniaW 90–70#68
at CaliforniaJan 2
at StanfordL 76–80#127
at StanfordJan 6
vs DukeL 73–84#370–7942%
vs DukeJan 10
vs Boston CollegeW 75–62#28180–6399%
vs Boston CollegeJan 13
vs VirginiaL 70–79#1676–7670%
vs VirginiaJan 17
at PittsburghW 100–59#24080–6990%
at PittsburghJan 24
vs Virginia TechW 85–71#5382–7285%
vs Virginia TechJan 26at DukeL 52–83#369–8017%
at DukeJan 31
vs SMUW 88–74#3876%
vs SMUFeb 4
vs Notre DameW 76–65#20184–7095%
vs Notre DameFeb 7
at Wake ForestW 88–80#7683–7368%
at Wake ForestFeb 9
vs NC StateW 118–77#4883–7679%
vs NC StateFeb 14
at BaylorW 82–71#8483–7657%
at BaylorFeb 17at SMUL 85–95#3840%
at SMUFeb 21
vs Georgia TechW 87–70#22486–6699%
vs Georgia TechFeb 23
at North CarolinaL 74–77#3278–7643%
at North CarolinaFeb 28
at ClemsonL 75–80#4774–7151%
at ClemsonMar 3
vs SyracuseW 77–62#19983–7096%
vs SyracuseMar 7
at Miami (FL)W 92–89#3178–7635%
at Miami (FL)Mar 11vs SMUW 62–58#3857%
vs SMUMar 12vs Miami (FL)L 73–78#3178–7548%
vs Miami (FL)Mar 19
vs South FloridaW 83–79#2980–7552%
vs South FloridaMar 21vs Michigan StateL 69–77#672–7621%
vs Michigan StateRanking over time
weekly · place of 365#12#18#24#30#35
#22
Jan 27Feb 3Feb 10Feb 17Feb 24Mar 3Mar 10Mar 17Mar 24Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28
14 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing. The series stops where the season did and resumes when the sport does.
NCAA tournament
Pulse →6
Seed
East
Region
Round of 32
Finish
The bracket is resolved, so this is the result rather than a probability. It becomes an odds card again when the file carries fractions.
Regular-season wins
not publishedThis sport has no season simulation, so there is no distribution of win totals to draw.
Profile
Strength of schedule#17
KenPom rank#19
NET rank#17
Quality wins3.5#31
Rebound margin+3.7#45
Turnover margin-0.5#194
Assists per game16.2#30
Three-point margin+0.037#53
The mock asks for offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo and experience. This sport publishes none of them: the feed carries raw shooting and rebound rates, which are not opponent-adjusted efficiency and must not wear that heading. The rankings board drops the same columns for the same reason.
BBMI picks on Louisville
2025–26 • ATS1–1
Picks on Louisville
9–3
Picks against
+5.1u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport does not store the side by name, so it is read from which way the model’s line sits against the market, and a game counts only once it clears the published edge floor. 14 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.