BBMI Rankings.
Teams are ranked by BBMI Score — schedule-adjusted expected wins as a share of the 116-win all-time record. It respects the record but neutralizes the schedule it was earned against.
How BBMI is built
BBMI = banked wins plus the remaining schedule projected from the current full-strength roster’s talent, then corrected for the strength of opponents already faced (SOS). Talent is a secondary lens — underlying quality of a fully healthy roster (short-term-injured regulars counted as back), record-neutral — so you can see how much of a team’s record is schedule versus underlying quality. They can disagree early: a hot start doesn’t change underlying quality, and a cold start doesn’t erase it.
| Rank | Team | BBMI | SOS | Talent | Record | L15 | Margin | FIP | wOBA* | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.861 | -1.2 | .610 | 68–40 | 8–7 | +1.44 | 4.00 | .344 | .774 |
| 2 |  Milwaukee Brewers | 0.817 | -1.5 | .568 | 67–41 | 8–7 | +1.22 | 3.81 | .336 | .737 |
| 3▲1 |  Tampa Bay Rays | 0.795 | -0.1 | .552 | 64–44 | 8–7 | +0.40 | 4.19 | .341 | .733 |
| 4▲1 |  New York Yankees | 0.787 | +0.7 | .538 | 61–48 | 9–6 | +0.80 | 3.90 | .314 | .725 |
| 5▼2 |  Atlanta Braves | 0.784 | -0.4 | .533 | 63–45 | 9–6 | +0.89 | 4.26 | .320 | .728 |
| 6▲1 |  Chicago Cubs | 0.763 | -0.4 | .512 | 62–47 | 10–5 | +0.82 | 4.54 | .326 | .755 |
| 7▼1 |  Philadelphia Phillies | 0.738 | -0.2 | .554 | 57–52 | 5–10 | −0.14 | 3.87 | .297 | .703 |
| 8 |  Boston Red Sox | 0.736 | +0.3 | .543 | 56–51 | Hot12–3 | +0.46 | 3.93 | .294 | .708 |
| 9▲3 |  Texas Rangers | 0.727 | 0.0 | .534 | 55–54 | 7–8 | −0.20 | 4.09 | .299 | .722 |
| 10▲8 |  Houston Astros | 0.713 | -0.7 | .541 | 55–55 | 9–6 | −0.37 | 4.53 | .320 | .728 |
| 11 |  Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.712 | +0.1 | .487 | 57–52 | 10–5 | +0.00 | 4.46 | .306 | .706 |
| 12▼2 |  Chicago White Sox | 0.710 | -0.2 | .483 | 57–51 | 9–6 | +0.40 | 4.39 | .307 | .724 |
| 13▲1 |  Seattle Mariners | 0.703 | -0.8 | .558 | 53–56 | 6–9 | +0.06 | 3.87 | .321 | .688 |
| 14▼5 |  Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.703 | -0.5 | .526 | 55–54 | 8–7 | +0.34 | 3.95 | .343 | .756 |
| 15▼2 |  Cleveland Guardians | 0.699 | +0.5 | .474 | 56–54 | 7–8 | −0.13 | 3.97 | .316 | .679 |
| 16▲3 |  San Diego Padres | 0.697 | +0.2 | .477 | 55–53 | 9–6 | −0.17 | 4.22 | .332 | .694 |
| 17▼1 |  Miami Marlins | 0.696 | +0.3 | .488 | 55–54 | Cold3–12 | +0.06 | 4.25 | .327 | .734 |
| 18▲2 |  Baltimore Orioles | 0.683 | +0.7 | .481 | 53–56 | 10–5 | −0.22 | 4.33 | .318 | .715 |
| 19▼2 |  Detroit Tigers | 0.682 | -0.4 | .539 | 51–58 | 7–8 | +0.35 | 4.02 | .331 | .718 |
| 20▲1 |  Washington Nationals | 0.677 | +0.8 | .431 | 55–54 | 7–8 | +0.25 | 4.82 | .335 | .776 |
| 21▲1 |  Minnesota Twins | 0.674 | -0.1 | .458 | 55–55 | 9–6 | −0.26 | 4.32 | .321 | .724 |
| 22▼7 |  St. Louis Cardinals | 0.674 | +0.5 | .445 | 54–55 | 4–11 | −0.13 | 4.17 | .303 | .693 |
| 23 |  Toronto Blue Jays | 0.666 | +0.8 | .496 | 50–59 | 5–10 | −0.55 | 4.19 | .312 | .684 |
| 24 |  Cincinnati Reds | 0.641 | 0.0 | .449 | 50–57 | 8–7 | −0.65 | 4.59 | .287 | .703 |
| 25 |  New York Mets | 0.634 | -0.5 | .538 | 46–63 | 6–9 | −0.47 | 4.03 | .305 | .687 |
| 26 |  San Francisco Giants | 0.627 | -0.2 | .492 | 46–62 | 7–8 | −0.44 | 4.11 | .355 | .727 |
| 27 |  Kansas City Royals | 0.609 | +0.3 | .446 | 46–64 | 8–7 | −0.85 | 4.50 | .324 | .710 |
| 28 |  Athletics | 0.592 | +0.2 | .443 | 45–63 | 4–11 | −1.19 | 4.91 | .336 | .725 |
| 29 |  Los Angeles Angels | 0.569 | +0.6 | .448 | 42–67 | 5–10 | −0.65 | 4.60 | .314 | .701 |
| 30 |  Colorado Rockies | 0.556 | +1.3 | .399 | 42–67 | 4–11 | −1.04 | 5.08 | .254 | .739 |
Hot / Cold flags mark the league’s best and worst last-15 records. BBMI = 50% offense (park-neutral wOBA) + 50% pitching (FIP); 100 = league average. wOBA* is park-neutral.
How does the BBMI MLB model work?
The model simulates every game one plate appearance at a time — 500 trials per game — using pitcher and batter rate models with park factors.
Pitching is graded by FIP: strikeouts, walks, and home runs, isolated from defense. It predicts the future better than ERA.
Offense is graded by wOBA: every offensive event weighted by its actual run value.
Context: asymmetric park factors and a trailing 30-day league scoring average capture venue and seasonal effects.
From the Research Desk
All research →Grading the AL Central: The White Sox Have Become the Responsible Adult
BBMI grades every AL Central team's 2026 season, roster, front office and manager before the deadline. The White Sox and Guardians lead on bottom-five payrolls while Detroit's expensive, talented roster sits fourth.
White Sox A- on the 26th payroll · Guardians A- · Tigers D+ with the top talentMLB · Division Report CardsGrading the AL West: Texas Leads Because Someone Eventually Had To
BBMI grades every AL West team's 2026 season, roster, front office and manager before the deadline. Texas leads a muddled division; Houston and Seattle have the talent but losing records; the Angels bottom out.
Rangers B lead a muddle · Astros and Mariners: talent, losing records · Angels FMLB · Division Report CardsGrading the NL West: The Dodgers Bought Excellence, Which Beats Buying Failure
BBMI grades every NL West team's 2026 season, roster, front office and manager before the deadline. The Dodgers earn an A+ superteam grade; San Francisco pays $232M to sit near the bottom.
Dodgers A+ superteam · Giants D- · Rockies F on baseball's weakest roster