Power rankings
All 30 clubs ranked by BBMI Score, schedule-adjusted expected wins as a share of the 116-win all-time record. It respects the record but neutralises the schedule it was earned against.
| ▾ | ▾ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Milwaukee BrewersNL Central | 93–57 | 0.861 | .589 | 100–62 | 9–6 | 3.87 | .747 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles DodgersNL West | 90–59 | 0.844 | .680 | 98–64 | 10–5 | 3.94 | .759 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay RaysAL East | 90–59 | 0.828 | .571 | 96–66 | 10–5 | 4.18 | .736 |
| 4▲1 |  Atlanta BravesNL East | 88–62 | 0.812 | .535 | 94–68 | 8–7 | 4.20 | .721 |
| 5▼1 |  New York YankeesAL East | 86–63 | 0.800 | .571 | 93–69 | 10–5 | 3.89 | .721 |
| 6 |  Chicago CubsNL Central | 83–67 | 0.774 | .531 | 90–72 | 7–8 | 4.63 | .769 |
| 7▲1 |  Philadelphia PhilliesNL East | 83–67 | 0.757 | .536 | 88–74 | 8–7 | 3.87 | .712 |
| 8▲1 |  San Diego PadresNL West | 80–68 | 0.756 | .553 | 88–74 | 9–6 | 4.21 | .707 |
| 9▼2 |  Boston Red SoxAL East | 82–68 | 0.753 | .566 | 87–75 | 8–7 | 3.87 | .726 |
| 10 |  Arizona DiamondbacksNL West | 79–71 | 0.744 | .504 | 86–76 | 8–7 | 4.39 | .710 |
| 11▲1 |  Chicago White SoxAL Central | 76–73 | 0.714 | .476 | 83–79 | 5–10 | 4.40 | .721 |
| 12▼1 |  Toronto Blue JaysAL East | 75–75 | 0.705 | .488 | 82–80 | 10–5 | 4.15 | .698 |
| 13▲1 |  Cleveland GuardiansAL Central | 76–74 | 0.703 | .493 | 82–81 | 8–7 | 3.97 | .689 |
| 14▲2 |  Pittsburgh PiratesNL Central | 75–75 | 0.700 | .520 | 81–81 | 10–5 | 3.95 | .731 |
| 15 |  Houston AstrosAL West | 75–75 | 0.694 | .539 | 81–82 | 7–8 | 4.50 | .722 |
| 16▼3 |  St. Louis CardinalsNL Central | 74–76 | 0.691 | .468 | 80–82 | 7–8 | 4.18 | .702 |
| 18▲2 |  Baltimore OriolesAL East | 72–78 | 0.678 | .464 | 79–83 | 6–9 | 4.29 | .709 |
| 17 |  Texas RangersAL West | 74–76 | 0.678 | .504 | 79–83 | 8–7 | 4.16 | .717 |
| 19▼2 |  Miami MarlinsNL East | 74–76 | 0.673 | .482 | 78–84 | 6–9 | 4.28 | .728 |
| 20▲1 |  Seattle MarinersAL West | 70–80 | 0.665 | .569 | 77–85 | 6–9 | 4.11 | .692 |
| 21▼1 |  Minnesota TwinsAL Central | 70–79 | 0.662 | .460 | 77–85 | 6–9 | 4.33 | .723 |
| 22▲3 |  New York MetsNL East | 69–80 | 0.654 | .452 | 76–86 | 9–6 | 4.11 | .704 |
| 23▲1 |  Detroit TigersAL Central | 70–79 | 0.652 | .508 | 76–86 | 8–7 | 4.12 | .715 |
| 24▼2 |  Washington NationalsNL East | 70–81 | 0.647 | .451 | 75–87 | 7–8 | 4.81 | .749 |
| 25▼2 |  Cincinnati RedsNL Central | 70–79 | 0.646 | .470 | 75–87 | 7–8 | 4.67 | .705 |
| 26 |  Kansas City RoyalsAL Central | 66–84 | 0.614 | .472 | 71–91 | 6–9 | 4.51 | .715 |
| 27 |  San Francisco GiantsNL West | 62–87 | 0.581 | .428 | 67–95 | 7–8 | 4.18 | .716 |
| 28 |  AthleticsAL West | 61–89 | 0.561 | .351 | 65–97 | 8–7 | 4.93 | .723 |
| 29▲1 |  Los Angeles AngelsAL West | 56–93 | 0.538 | .420 | 62–100 | 4–11 | 4.40 | .680 |
| 30▼1 |  Colorado RockiesNL West | 55–94 | 0.534 | .411 | 62–100 | 3–12 | 5.05 | .737 |
wOBA* is park-neutral. Hot and cold shading on Last 15 marks the league’s best and worst fifteen-game records.
How does the BBMI MLB model work?
The model simulates every game one plate appearance at a time — 500 trials per game — using pitcher and batter rate models with park factors.
Pitching is graded by FIP: strikeouts, walks, and home runs, isolated from defense. It predicts the future better than ERA.
Offense is graded by wOBA: every offensive event weighted by its actual run value.
Context: asymmetric park factors and a trailing 30-day league scoring average capture venue and seasonal effects.
From the Research Desk
All research →BBMI MLB Power Rankings, September 11: Milwaukee Holds No. 1, Pittsburgh Jumps Six Spots, and the AL Central Tightens
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with fourteen days of movement since the August 28 board. Milwaukee banked the wins and keeps the top line, Los Angeles owns the Talent column by 90 points and the pennant simulation at 36.9%, and Pittsburgh is the board's largest riser.
Brewers .851 · Dodgers .664 talent · Pirates ▲6 · AL Central 1.5 GBAwards · Cy YoungSchlittler, Misiorowski Hold Cy Young Leads as Sale Surges
Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski answered late-August pressure with wins, and the model still has both atop their leagues at 67.0% and 58.8%. The movement is behind them: Parker Messick has climbed to 20.2%, Dylan Cease to 11.8%, and Chris Sale to 11.8% on the back of a nine-inning shutout of the Dodgers. Plus the July and August calls, graded.
Schlittler 67.0% AL · Misiorowski 58.8% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · MVPCrow-Armstrong Has Caught Ohtani in BBMI's NL MVP Model
Eleven days ago Shohei Ohtani won the National League in 498 of 500 BBMI simulations. Pete Crow-Armstrong now leads 331 to 169, after a six-homer stretch, an Ohtani cold spell and the addition of Statcast defense to the value board. The margin is 3.1 runs — and on the same September 2 data with defense removed, Ohtani still wins 494 of 500. A player-value projection, not a forecast of the writers' vote.
Crow-Armstrong 66.2% NL · Alvarez 100.0% AL · 500 simulated seasons