Power rankings
All 30 clubs ranked by BBMI Score, schedule-adjusted expected wins as a share of the 116-win all-time record. It respects the record but neutralises the schedule it was earned against.
| ▾ | ▾ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Milwaukee BrewersNL Central | 103–59 | 0.878 | .585 | 103–59 | 13–2 | 3.86 | .744 |
| 2 |  Tampa Bay RaysAL East | 98–64 | 0.853 | .571 | 98–64 | 9–6 | 4.16 | .728 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles DodgersNL West | 100–62 | 0.847 | .666 | 100–62 | 8–7 | 3.84 | .762 |
| 4 |  Atlanta BravesNL East | 94–68 | 0.806 | .568 | 94–68 | 7–8 | 4.24 | .718 |
| 5 |  New York YankeesAL East | 93–68 | 0.804 | .623 | 93–69 | 7–8 | 3.87 | .720 |
| 6 |  San Diego PadresNL West | 91–71 | 0.785 | .550 | 91–71 | 10–5 | 4.24 | .717 |
| 7▲1 |  Chicago CubsNL Central | 89–73 | 0.766 | .507 | 89–73 | 6–8 | 4.58 | .767 |
| 8▼1 |  Philadelphia PhilliesNL East | 88–74 | 0.756 | .537 | 88–74 | 6–9 | 3.86 | .707 |
| 9 |  Boston Red SoxAL East | 87–75 | 0.755 | .607 | 87–75 | 5–9 | 3.83 | .717 |
| 10 |  Arizona DiamondbacksNL West | 86–76 | 0.744 | .516 | 86–76 | 7–5 | 4.41 | .720 |
| 11▲1 |  Cleveland GuardiansAL Central | 85–77 | 0.719 | .506 | 85–77 | 8–7 | 3.94 | .696 |
| 12▼1 |  Chicago White SoxAL Central | 84–78 | 0.718 | .483 | 84–78 | 10–5 | 4.39 | .726 |
| 13 |  Pittsburgh PiratesNL Central | 82–80 | 0.704 | .541 | 82–80 | 7–5 | 3.91 | .734 |
| 14 |  Baltimore OriolesAL East | 79–82 | 0.700 | .473 | 79–83 | 7–4 | 4.22 | .710 |
| 15 |  Toronto Blue JaysAL East | 79–83 | 0.696 | .506 | 79–83 | 4–8 | 4.14 | .691 |
| 16 |  Miami MarlinsNL East | 80–82 | 0.692 | .488 | 80–82 | 6–6 | 4.29 | .726 |
| 17 |  Texas RangersAL West | 80–82 | 0.681 | .498 | 80–82 | 6–6 | 4.18 | .713 |
| 18 |  Houston AstrosAL West | 81–81 | 0.678 | .565 | 81–81 | 6–8 | 4.49 | .732 |
| 19▲1 |  Washington NationalsNL East | 77–85 | 0.669 | .449 | 77–85 | 7–4 | 4.81 | .744 |
| 20▼1 |  St. Louis CardinalsNL Central | 77–85 | 0.666 | .458 | 77–85 | 3–9 | 4.17 | .691 |
| 21 |  Minnesota TwinsAL Central | 77–85 | 0.661 | .439 | 77–85 | 7–6 | 4.28 | .720 |
| 22▲1 |  Cincinnati RedsNL Central | 75–87 | 0.658 | .406 | 75–87 | 5–8 | 4.73 | .699 |
| 23▲2 |  Detroit TigersAL Central | 76–86 | 0.647 | .499 | 76–86 | 6–7 | 4.11 | .720 |
| 24 |  New York MetsNL East | 74–88 | 0.644 | .471 | 74–88 | 5–8 | 4.11 | .706 |
| 25▼3 |  Seattle MarinersAL West | 76–86 | 0.641 | .546 | 76–86 | 6–6 | 4.08 | .693 |
| 26 |  Kansas City RoyalsAL Central | 69–93 | 0.591 | .427 | 69–93 | 3–9 | 4.65 | .718 |
| 27 |  San Francisco GiantsNL West | 65–97 | 0.570 | .443 | 65–97 | 3–9 | 4.22 | .706 |
| 28 |  AthleticsAL West | 64–98 | 0.556 | .365 | 64–98 | 3–9 | 4.96 | .719 |
| 29 |  Los Angeles AngelsAL West | 62–100 | 0.541 | .393 | 62–100 | 6–7 | 4.35 | .679 |
| 30 |  Colorado RockiesNL West | 58–104 | 0.517 | .396 | 58–104 | 3–10 | 5.04 | .739 |
wOBA* is park-neutral. Hot and cold shading on Last 15 marks the league’s best and worst fifteen-game records.
How does the BBMI MLB model work?
The model simulates every game one plate appearance at a time — 500 trials per game — using pitcher and batter rate models with park factors.
Pitching is graded by FIP: strikeouts, walks, and home runs, isolated from defense. It predicts the future better than ERA.
Offense is graded by wOBA: every offensive event weighted by its actual run value.
Context: asymmetric park factors and a trailing 30-day league scoring average capture venue and seasonal effects.
From the Research Desk
All research →BBMI World Series Update: Up 3–0, Milwaukee Is 95% to Win the Series
The Brewers won Games 1 and 2 by one run each and Game 3 by nine. BBMI now gives Milwaukee a 95% chance to finish the Series. Tampa Bay needs four straight wins, starting with tonight’s Game 4 at Tropicana Field.
Brewers 95% · up from 52% · Rays 5%MLB · Postseason PreviewBBMI World Series Preview: Why Milwaukee Matches Up Better With Cleveland Than Tampa Bay
With the AL pennant still undecided, BBMI gives the Brewers a 65% chance against the Guardians and 52% against the Rays. The biggest differences are in the opposing lineups and how the pitching matchups shift from game to game.
Brewers 65% vs. Cleveland · 52% vs. Tampa Bay · 13-point gapAwards · Cy YoungFinal 2026 Cy Young Runs-Saved Board: Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski Finish First
The regular season is complete. Cam Schlittler finishes first in BBMI's American League runs-saved model at 64.7 runs saved, 7.9 ahead of Parker Messick; Jacob Misiorowski leads the National League at 61.2, 5.0 ahead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto. These are BBMI's final model rankings, not a forecast of the writers' vote.
Cam Schlittler 64.7 AL · Jacob Misiorowski 61.2 NL · final regular season