BBMI Rankings.
Rankings measure current team quality — pitching plus offense. Projected record reflects the full-season outlook including schedule. The two can disagree early: a hot start doesn’t change underlying quality, and a cold start doesn’t erase it.
| Rank | Team | BBMI | Proj record | Record | L15 | Margin | FIP | wOBA* | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Los Angeles Dodgers | 118.0 | 101–61 | 45–27 | 8–7 | +1.96 | 3.90 | .349 | .788 |
| 2 |  Milwaukee Brewers | 115.1 | 100–62 | 43–26 | 9–6 | +1.62 | 3.82 | .336 | .734 |
| 3 |  New York Yankees | 113.9 | 100–63 | 43–27 | Hot10–5 | +1.53 | 3.93 | .330 | .763 |
| 4 |  Atlanta Braves | 110.9 | 101–61 | 46–25 | 9–6 | +1.51 | 4.15 | .328 | .744 |
| 5 |  Seattle Mariners | 107.1 | 84–78 | 37–36 | 8–7 | +0.27 | 3.92 | .332 | .713 |
| 6 |  Pittsburgh Pirates | 104.1 | 80–82 | 36–36 | 7–8 | +0.19 | 3.92 | .336 | .737 |
| 7 |  Tampa Bay Rays | 102.7 | 95–67 | 41–27 | 7–8 | +0.12 | 4.24 | .336 | .720 |
| 8 |  Detroit Tigers | 102.4 | 71–91 | 29–42 | 7–8 | −0.10 | 4.08 | .329 | .709 |
| 9▲2 |  Philadelphia Phillies | 102.2 | 86–76 | 38–33 | 9–6 | −0.24 | 3.73 | .292 | .685 |
| 10 |  San Diego Padres | 101.3 | 84–78 | 37–33 | 6–9 | −0.18 | 4.09 | .314 | .653 |
| 11▲1 |  Cleveland Guardians | 101.2 | 88–74 | 39–33 | 7–8 | −0.04 | 4.03 | .321 | .689 |
| 12▼3 |  New York Mets | 100.6 | 73–89 | 32–39 | 9–6 | −0.28 | 3.94 | .295 | .666 |
| 13▲3 |  St. Louis Cardinals | 100.6 | 86–76 | 38–31 | 9–6 | +0.21 | 4.22 | .315 | .724 |
| 14▼1 |  Toronto Blue Jays | 100.5 | 78–84 | 34–38 | 6–9 | −0.31 | 4.17 | .320 | .703 |
| 15 |  San Francisco Giants | 100.3 | 69–93 | 29–43 | 7–8 | −0.78 | 4.05 | .354 | .725 |
| 16▲1 |  Chicago Cubs | 99.9 | 83–79 | 37–35 | 6–9 | +0.14 | 4.41 | .313 | .723 |
| 17▲1 |  Boston Red Sox | 99.7 | 72–90 | 29–40 | 6–9 | −0.06 | 4.06 | .291 | .698 |
| 18▼4 |  Miami Marlins | 99.6 | 80–82 | 36–36 | Hot10–5 | −0.08 | 4.25 | .316 | .702 |
| 19 |  Texas Rangers | 98.9 | 82–80 | 35–36 | Hot10–5 | +0.07 | 4.05 | .291 | .702 |
| 20 |  Chicago White Sox | 97.1 | 86–76 | 38–32 | Hot10–5 | +0.17 | 4.51 | .310 | .737 |
| 21▲2 |  Washington Nationals | 96.5 | 81–81 | 37–35 | 8–7 | +0.23 | 4.83 | .323 | .745 |
| 22▼1 |  Arizona Diamondbacks | 96.4 | 81–81 | 36–35 | 5–10 | −0.28 | 4.41 | .299 | .691 |
| 23▼1 |  Minnesota Twins | 96.3 | 73–89 | 33–40 | 6–9 | −0.55 | 4.29 | .317 | .716 |
| 24 |  Oakland Athletics | 95.6 | 80–82 | 35–36 | 8–7 | −0.72 | 4.77 | .347 | .747 |
| 25▲2 |  Baltimore Orioles | 95.3 | 74–88 | 34–39 | 8–7 | −0.45 | 4.49 | .324 | .728 |
| 26▼1 |  Kansas City Royals | 95.2 | 69–94 | 29–43 | 7–8 | −0.73 | 4.31 | .318 | .693 |
| 27▼1 |  Houston Astros | 95.0 | 75–88 | 33–40 | 7–8 | −0.59 | 4.46 | .320 | .729 |
| 28 |  Los Angeles Angels | 92.9 | 67–95 | 29–43 | 7–8 | −0.53 | 4.71 | .315 | .708 |
| 29 |  Cincinnati Reds | 90.2 | 73–89 | 33–37 | Cold4–11 | −0.69 | 4.59 | .290 | .708 |
| 30 |  Colorado Rockies | 79.2 | 59–103 | 27–45 | 7–8 | −1.25 | 5.13 | .252 | .730 |
Hot / Cold flags mark the league’s best and worst last-15 records. BBMI = 50% offense (park-neutral wOBA) + 50% pitching (FIP); 100 = league average. wOBA* is park-neutral.
How does the BBMI MLB model work?
The model simulates every game one plate appearance at a time — 500 trials per game — using pitcher and batter rate models with park factors.
Pitching is graded by FIP: strikeouts, walks, and home runs, isolated from defense. It predicts the future better than ERA.
Offense is graded by wOBA: every offensive event weighted by its actual run value.
Context: asymmetric park factors and a trailing 30-day league scoring average capture venue and seasonal effects.