Grading the NL West: The Dodgers Purchased Excellence, which Is Still Better Than Purchasing Failure
BBMI grades every team's season, roster, front office and manager before the trade deadline
The Dodgers have the league's best record, best BBMI rating, highest talent estimate, largest payroll and strongest World Series outlook.
This is what is supposed to happen when elite development, aggressive roster management and more than $420 million agree to cooperate.
The rest of the division is less orderly. Arizona and San Diego are fighting for wild-card position, San Francisco has wasted an approximately average roster, and Colorado is performing almost exactly as badly as BBMI believes it should.
Each organization receives four grades:
Overall team grade: Record, BBMI rank, playoff probability, World Series appearance probability and full-strength talent.
Players/roster grade: Underlying talent matters, but the grade is earned through actual player production, scoring margin, offense, pitching and wins. Star names do not receive partial credit for appearing in the media guide.
Front-office grade: Talent and wins created relative to payroll, along with depth, construction and organizational direction.
Manager grade: Actual winning percentage relative to BBMI's record-neutral talent estimate, adjusted for scoring margin and roster circumstances.
This distinction changes the assessment of San Diego and San Francisco. The Padres cannot receive an above-average roster grade merely because their stars are famous. The Giants' players cannot watch a first-year manager receive an F while retaining a C+ for producing 45 wins.
BBMI's rankings combine banked wins with talent-based projections of the remaining schedule, adjusted for schedule strength. Talent is the underlying quality of the healthy roster, separate from the record already accumulated. BBMI's internal postseason methodology simulates every remaining game and the full October bracket 10,000 times.
The data is frozen to the July 27 rankings and July 28 simulation.
NL West grade book
| Team | Record | Win % | BBMI rank | Talent | Win % minus talent | Playoff | Win division | Reach World Series | Tax payroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 67–39 | .632 | 1st | .613 | +.019 | 99% | 99% | 39.9% | $420.9M · 1st |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 55–52 | .514 | 12th | .484 | +.030 | 36% | 1% | 2.5% | $231.6M · 13th |
| San Diego Padres | 53–53 | .500 | 14th | .472 | +.028 | 26% | 1% | 1.7% | $257.9M · 7th |
| San Francisco Giants | 45–61 | .425 | 26th | .499 | −.074 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | $231.9M · 11th |
| Colorado Rockies | 42–65 | .393 | 30th | .397 | −.004 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | $136.0M · 22nd |
The World Series percentage is how often each club wins the National League pennant, not how often it wins the championship. Payroll totals are 2026 tax-payroll estimates.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are 67–39, first in BBMI and projected to finish 101–61. They reach the playoffs and win the division in 99% of simulations, while reaching the World Series 39.9% of the time.
No other team's division race is effectively finished to this degree. Los Angeles leads Arizona by 12½ games and owns a 25½-game advantage over Colorado, which is less a race than an extended seating chart.
Players/roster grade: A+
Shohei Ohtani is batting .282 with 22 home runs, a .387 on-base percentage and .907 OPS. Freddie Freeman owns an .872 OPS, Max Muncy has 20 homers with an .851 mark and Andy Pages has supplied 17 home runs.
Tommy Edman has been outstanding in 31 games, producing a .904 OPS. Even the relatively disappointing performances are highly recognizable: Mookie Betts has a .701 OPS, while Kyle Tucker sits at .710. Los Angeles has enough depth to treat ordinary production from former MVP-caliber players as a minor inconvenience.
BBMI's team metrics are overwhelming. The Dodgers have a .613 talent estimate, .343 park-neutral wOBA, .771 OPS and plus-1.46 scoring margin. All are at or near the top of baseball.
The roster earns an A+ because the individual performances and team-level results agree: this is baseball's best collection of talent, and the players have performed like it.
Front-office grade: A-
Los Angeles' $420.9 million tax payroll is the highest in MLB and approximately $45 million above the second-place Mets. It also exceeds the latest reported annual GDP of the Marshall Islands.
Andrew Friedman's organization deserves substantial credit for spending intelligently. The Dodgers have not simply accumulated expensive veterans. They have combined stars, internal development, depth and enough flexibility to survive injuries and underperformance.
The grade remains A- because efficiency still matters. Producing baseball's best roster with baseball's largest payroll is a successful outcome, but it is not "doing more with less." It is doing significantly more with significantly more.
The Mets have demonstrated that even this part is not automatic.
Manager grade: A
Dave Roberts' club is winning 19 points above its already extraordinary .613 talent estimate. The plus-1.46 scoring margin confirms that the record is supported by dominance rather than close-game fortune.
Managing this roster comes with advantages unavailable elsewhere. It also comes with championship-or-failure expectations, complex role decisions and little tolerance for ordinary losing streaks.
Roberts has kept the club focused enough to meet the standard. The A rather than A+ reflects the enormous baseline created by the roster.
Verdict: The Dodgers purchased and developed a superteam and received one.
Several high-payroll organizations should study the final three words.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is 55–52, 12th in BBMI and projected to finish 82–80. The Diamondbacks reach the playoffs in 36% of simulations, making them the division's most likely non-Dodgers postseason participant.
The division is gone. The wild-card race remains very much alive.
Players/roster grade: B
Corbin Carroll has 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases, a .342 on-base percentage and .825 OPS. Gabriel Moreno is batting .310 with an .844 OPS, while Ketel Marte has 19 home runs with a .763 mark.
Geraldo Perdomo has added 17 stolen bases and steady middle-infield production. Nolan Arenado has been useful at .742 without producing like the superstar version of himself.
The roster lacks one overwhelming current performer, but it has enough solid regulars to remain competitive. BBMI's .484 talent estimate and minus-0.04 scoring margin describe an approximately average team, while the .514 winning percentage indicates modest overachievement.
A B fits a roster that has converted average talent into a winning record without producing enough dominance for a higher grade.
Front-office grade: B+
Arizona's $231.6 million tax payroll ranks 13th. That is more spending than the franchise's small-market reputation might suggest and nearly equal to Houston and San Francisco.
Mike Hazen's front office has maintained a credible wild-card contender without possessing a top-10 talent rating. The roster is balanced enough to avoid collapse and flexible enough to remain competitive despite lacking an MVP-level season.
The B+ rewards relevance and depth. It stops below A because BBMI sees only .484 talent, and a 36% playoff probability remains closer to plausible than probable.
Manager grade: B+
Torey Lovullo's team is winning 30 points above its talent estimate.
The nearly neutral scoring margin suggests some of the gap may be close-game performance rather than superior overall play. Still, Arizona has converted average underlying quality into a winning record and the division's second-best playoff position.
Verdict: Arizona is not great. It is balanced, competently assembled and difficult to eliminate.
That has become a surprisingly durable Diamondbacks identity.
San Diego Padres
San Diego is 53–53, 14th in BBMI and projected to finish 81–81. The Padres reach the postseason in 26% of simulations and have essentially no path to catching Los Angeles.
An even record and one-in-four playoff probability would be acceptable for some teams. The Padres did not construct baseball's seventh-most-expensive payroll to be some teams.
Players/roster grade: C+
Ty France has been San Diego's best hitter, batting .286 with 16 home runs and an .886 OPS. Luis Campusano has produced an .882 OPS in 33 games, though the limited sample prevents him from carrying the full-season evaluation.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting .277 with 25 stolen bases, but his eight home runs and .739 OPS are well below peak expectations. Manny Machado has 23 home runs, though his .210 average and .734 OPS reflect an uneven season.
Jackson Merrill has a .675 OPS, Xander Bogaerts sits at .636 and Gavin Sheets at .709. San Diego has received acceptable or disappointing production from too many players expected to be central contributors.
BBMI's .472 talent estimate places the Padres below league average despite the recognizable names. The .331 park-neutral wOBA is strong, but a .692 OPS, 4.23 FIP and minus-0.20 scoring margin reveal an incomplete team.
A B- would reward the reputations and France's excellent year. C+ grades the .500 record and actual supporting production. San Diego paid for a star-driven roster and received one exceptional season from Ty France, which was probably not the intended allocation of responsibilities.
Front-office grade: C
San Diego's $257.9 million tax payroll ranks seventh. The Padres are spending more than Atlanta, Arizona, Houston and Texas while ranking 14th in BBMI and sitting at .500.
A.J. Preller has assembled star names and aggressively pursued talent, but the current roster lacks enough productive depth. Several large commitments are producing ordinary results, leaving the team dependent on France and a few smaller-sample breakouts.
The front office avoids a D because the Padres remain alive and have enough talent to make a late run. A C is appropriate for constructing a fringe wild-card team at championship-level cost.
Manager grade: B+
Craig Stammen entered 2026 as a first-year manager. His Padres are winning 28 points above their .472 talent estimate despite a negative scoring margin.
The negative margin introduces uncertainty, but reaching .500 with an underperforming collection of expensive veterans suggests Stammen has prevented a disappointing roster from becoming a disastrous one.
Verdict: San Diego has spent like a championship team and performed like a fringe wild-card entry.
At least the uniforms remain excellent.
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 45–61, 26th in BBMI and projected to finish 74–88. The Giants reach the postseason in 1% of simulations.
BBMI rates their talent at .499, almost exactly average. Their actual winning percentage is .425.
The Giants have not assembled an excellent roster. They have performed dramatically worse than the roster they did assemble.
Players/roster grade: D+
Rafael Devers has 22 home runs and an .799 OPS. Casey Schmitt has added 21 homers with a .784 mark, while Jung Hoo Lee is batting .302 with a .771 OPS. Luis Arraez has produced a .326 average and .811 OPS.
Bryce Eldridge has shown promise with an .811 OPS in 64 games.
The concerns are equally visible. Willy Adames owns a .709 OPS, and Matt Chapman sits at .692. San Francisco has several good hitters without receiving enough star-level performance from its most important veterans.
BBMI's metrics create an unusual profile: a league-best .353 park-neutral wOBA but only a .724 OPS, minus-0.51 scoring margin and 4.11 FIP. Whatever offensive quality the model sees has not been translated into enough actual runs or wins.
A C+ would permit the players to watch the manager absorb nearly all the blame from a safe distance. D+ recognizes the useful individual seasons while holding the roster accountable for 45 wins and a bottom-five performance.
Front-office grade: D
The Giants' $231.9 million tax payroll ranks 11th, nearly identical to Arizona and Houston.
The baseball operations group has built a roster with approximately average talent and several useful hitters. That is not enough for the spending level, and the team lacks the pitching strength or depth required to withstand underperformance.
A D reflects both construction and direction. San Francisco is too expensive and experienced to be treated like an early rebuild, yet too weak and far from contention to be treated like a credible playoff club.
The organization is caught between plans, which is a comfortable phrase meaning neither plan is currently succeeding.
Manager grade: D-
Tony Vitello made the unprecedented transition from the University of Tennessee directly to an MLB managerial job before the season.
His first season has been brutal.
San Francisco's .425 winning percentage is 74 points below its .499 talent estimate, the largest negative gap in the division. The minus-0.51 scoring margin supports the conclusion that the team has performed poorly rather than merely lost an unlucky collection of close games.
The grade rises from F because the players now receive appropriate responsibility for the failure. Vitello still earns a poor grade. He inherited an imperfect but approximately average roster, not a 45-win talent base.
Verdict: The Giants possess average talent, substantial resources and 61 losses.
The fog is not the only thing obscuring the organizational plan.
Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 42–65, last in BBMI and projected to finish 63–99. The Rockies reach the playoffs in 1% of simulations, which is technically nonzero in the same way one lottery ticket technically qualifies as retirement planning.
Players/roster grade: D
Hunter Goodman has been excellent, batting .260 with 31 home runs and an .888 OPS. Mickey Moniak owns an .875 OPS, while TJ Rumfield has produced an .857 mark. Jake McCarthy is batting .298 with an .842 OPS and 17 stolen bases.
Those performances prevent an F.
The roster's larger problems remain overwhelming. Ezequiel Tovar is batting .198 with a .563 OPS, and the pitching staff has a 5.10 FIP, the worst in baseball. Colorado's park-neutral wOBA is only .255 despite a superficially respectable .741 raw OPS, showing how much Coors Field inflates the visible offensive results.
The Rockies are being outscored by 1.03 runs per game. A few good hitters cannot repair that level of run prevention.
Front-office grade: F
Colorado's $136 million tax payroll ranks 22nd. The Rockies are not the league's lowest spender, yet they possess its lowest BBMI talent estimate at .397 and worst FIP.
The organization has remained bad without fully embracing a disciplined rebuild or constructing a credible attempt to contend. The altitude creates real challenges, especially for pitching evaluation and development, but altitude does not require a team to remain strategically unclear.
Other franchises have also encountered geography.
Manager grade: C
Warren Schaeffer entered the season as one of MLB's nine new managers. Colorado's .393 winning percentage is almost identical to its .397 talent estimate.
That means Schaeffer has neither significantly elevated nor meaningfully underperformed the roster.
A C may seem generous for a 42–65 team, but the manager category evaluates performance relative to available talent. Meeting expectations earns an average grade even when the expectations were already located in the basement.
Verdict: Colorado is playing almost exactly as well as BBMI believes it should.
Unfortunately, BBMI believes it should be the worst team in baseball.
Final NL West report cards
| Team | Overall | Players/roster | Front office | Manager |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | A+ | A+ | A- | A |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | B | B | B+ | B+ |
| San Diego Padres | C+ | C+ | C | B+ |
| San Francisco Giants | D- | D+ | D | D- |
| Colorado Rockies | F | D | F | C |
The division’s biggest lesson
The Dodgers are everything their payroll and talent say they should be. That sounds obvious until the Mets, Blue Jays and Tigers are considered.
Arizona has built a competent wild-card contender. San Diego has spent heavily for a team that remains uncertain. San Francisco has performed far below average talent, while Colorado has performed almost exactly in line with the league's weakest roster.
Los Angeles receives the A+ because the organization's enormous resources have been matched by enormous competence.
Money does not guarantee excellence.
It merely makes the absence of excellence much harder to explain.
Sources
Team records, BBMI rankings, talent ratings, playoff, division and World Series probabilities, and scoring margins: BBMI July 27 power rankings and July 28 postseason simulation (MLB Power Rankings, MLB Playoff Odds & Bracket Pulse). Player statistics: MLB.com team stats. Payroll figures: 2026 tax-payroll estimates via Spotrac.
Disclosure: analytical and educational content about model performance. Not betting advice. Rankings, forecasts, and probabilities are model outputs, not financial or betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.