MLB · Totals · 311 games since May 23
BBMI vs Vegas.
For every game, both numbers are on the record before first pitch: the BBMI projected total and the Vegas line. After the final out, we measure which one landed closer. No picks here — just line quality, head to head.
ThroughJun 15
Sample is sim-era only (per-PA sim deployed May 23). Prior MVM (FIP/wOBA) model results are paper-tracked off-site, not displayed here. Comparisons gain stability as sample grows; early-season noise warning auto-engages below n=100.
BBMI closer
129
41.5% of 311 games
vs
2 ties
Vegas closer
180
57.9%
Error metrics
Lower is better on the error metricsMAE
Average miss, in runs
BBMI3.55
Vegas3.34
Vegas by 0.22 runs
RMSE
Penalizes the big misses harder
BBMI4.73
Vegas4.44
Vegas by 0.29 runs
Bias
Systematic lean, + = projects too high
BBMI-0.99
Vegas-0.88
Vegas by 0.12 runs
Projected winner accuracy
Of 311 decided games, share each projection's implied winner was right
BBMI48%
Vegas56%
Vegas by 8 pts
Game by game · 311 games
Err = projection − actual total · sort any column| Date ↓ | Matchup | Vegas O/U | BBMI | Diff | Actual | BBMI err | Vegas err | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15 |  Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | 7.5 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 7 | +1.6 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 15 |  Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals | 9.0 | 8.9 | 0.1 | 10 | −1.1 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 15 |  New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds | 8.0 | 8.2 | 0.2 | 12 | −3.8 | −4.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 15 |  San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 3 | +4.6 | +5.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 15 |  Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs | 9.5 | 9.7 | 0.2 | 9 | +0.7 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 15 |  Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 6 | +0.9 | +2.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 15 |  Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros | 8.5 | 8.6 | 0.1 | 12 | −3.4 | −3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 15 |  Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.0 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 7 | +0.3 | +2.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 15 |  Pittsburgh Pirates @ Athletics | 10.5 | 9.2 | 1.3 | 13 | −3.8 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 | Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 7.0 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 6 | +1.8 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 | San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 7 | +0.5 | +3.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 14 |  Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | 10.0 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 11 | −1.9 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 |  New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | 8.5 | 9.4 | 0.9 | 11 | −1.6 | −2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 14 |  Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | 9.5 | 8.8 | 0.7 | 8 | +0.8 | +1.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 14 |  Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 9 | −1.4 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 |  Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 4 | +4.7 | +4.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 |  St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | 9.0 | 9.1 | 0.1 | 9 | +0.1 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 |  Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox | 10.0 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 10 | −1.9 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 |  Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7.0 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 4 | +2.8 | +3.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 14 | Colorado Rockies @ Athletics | 14.0 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 32 | −22.4 | −18.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 |  Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | 8.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 6 | +2.5 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 14 |  Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | 9.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 11 | −3.4 | −2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 13 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 15 | −7.0 | −6.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 13 | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7.5 | 7.2 | 0.3 | 4 | +3.2 | +3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 13 | San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | 10.0 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 12 | −4.2 | −2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 13 | Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | 9.0 | 9.9 | 0.9 | 11 | −1.1 | −2.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 13 | Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 9.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 5 | +2.6 | +4.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 13 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | 9.0 | 8.3 | 0.7 | 3 | +5.3 | +6.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 13 | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 4 | +2.9 | +4.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 13 |  Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | 8.0 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 9 | −2.6 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 13 | Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | 8.5 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 4 | +3.2 | +4.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 13 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 8 | −0.0 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 13 | Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | 9.5 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 15 | −6.8 | −5.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 13 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | 8.0 | 8.2 | 0.2 | 17 | −8.8 | −9.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 13 | Colorado Rockies @ Athletics | 14.0 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 12 | −2.9 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 13 | Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | 8.0 | 8.3 | 0.3 | 7 | +1.3 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 13 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | 8.5 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 8 | +0.8 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.5 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 11 | −2.9 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | 9.0 | 9.3 | 0.3 | 12 | −2.7 | −3.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 12 | San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | 9.0 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 10 | −1.8 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 8.5 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 5 | +4.1 | +3.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | 8.5 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 11 | −3.5 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | 9.5 | 9.1 | 0.4 | 7 | +2.1 | +2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 12 | Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | 8.0 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 12 | −4.7 | −4.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | 8.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 13 | −4.5 | −5.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 12 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox | 9.0 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 10 | −1.3 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7.5 | 7.6 | 0.1 | 6 | +1.6 | +1.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | 9.0 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 18 | −9.4 | −9.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 17 | −9.1 | −8.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | 9.0 | 9.7 | 0.7 | 7 | +2.7 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 12 | Colorado Rockies @ Athletics | 14.0 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 10 | −1.2 | +4.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 12 | Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | 8.5 | 9.8 | 1.3 | 6 | +3.8 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 11 | St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets | 9.0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 9 | −1.5 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 11 | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 11 | −3.5 | −1.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 11 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins | 8.5 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 2 | +5.9 | +6.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 11 | Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals | 10.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 6 | +2.5 | +4.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 11 | Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies | 11.0 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 12 | −2.8 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 11 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 9.5 | 7.8 | 1.7 | 14 | −6.2 | −4.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 11 | Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles | 8.5 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 12 | −4.3 | −3.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 |  Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | 7.5 | 7.2 | 0.3 | 12 | −4.8 | −4.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 | New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians | 7.5 | 7.2 | 0.3 | 12 | −4.8 | −4.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 |  Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants | 8.5 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 21 | −13.5 | −12.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 |  Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres | 8.0 | 7.7 | 0.3 | 9 | −1.3 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 | Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles | 9.0 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 9 | −0.3 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 17 | −10.1 | −9.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 10 | −2.0 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins | 8.0 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 8 | +0.1 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays | 8.5 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 11 | −1.1 | −2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 10 | St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets | 8.5 | 8.6 | 0.1 | 11 | −2.4 | −2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 10 | Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 10 | −2.0 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 10 | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox | 7.5 | 7.3 | 0.2 | 3 | +4.3 | +4.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 10 | Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies | 12.5 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 5 | +5.4 | +7.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 10 |  Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics | 14.5 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 7 | +2.3 | +7.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 10 | Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | 8.5 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 5 | +3.1 | +3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 9 | Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles | 8.5 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 11 | −3.8 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 9 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 15 | −8.1 | −7.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 9 | Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | 7.5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 7 | +0.9 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 9 | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | 8.0 | 8.2 | 0.2 | 14 | −5.8 | −6.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 9 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins | 7.5 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 16 | −6.9 | −8.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 9 | New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 5 | +2.6 | +3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 9 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7.5 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 5 | +4.2 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 9 | St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets | 8.0 | 7.8 | 0.2 | 7 | +0.8 | +1.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 9 | Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 8 | −0.5 | +1.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 9 | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox | 9.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 11 | −3.4 | −2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 9 | Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies | 12.5 | 11.4 | 1.1 | 10 | +1.4 | +2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 9 | Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | 8.5 | 8.2 | 0.3 | 11 | −2.8 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 9 | Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres | 7.5 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 8 | −1.1 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 9 | Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants | 8.5 | 8.2 | 0.3 | 9 | −0.8 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 9 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics | 12.5 | 10.2 | 2.3 | 12 | −1.8 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 8 | Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles | 9.0 | 8.9 | 0.1 | 9 | −0.1 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 8 | Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | 8.0 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 4 | +3.9 | +4.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 8 | New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians | 7.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 12 | −4.0 | −4.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 8 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7.5 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 7 | +1.3 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 8 | Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 9 | −1.0 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 8 | Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres | 8.0 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 8 | −0.1 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 8 | Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants | 8.0 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 7 | +1.4 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 8 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics | 11.0 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 29 | −20.8 | −18.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 7 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | 9.0 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 5 | +2.9 | +4.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 7 |  Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | 9.5 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 14 | −6.0 | −4.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 7 | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | 8.0 | 7.8 | 0.2 | 7 | +0.8 | +1.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 7 |  Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | 8.0 | 8.3 | 0.3 | 10 | −1.7 | −2.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 7 | Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | 8.5 | 8.4 | 0.1 | 9 | −0.6 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 7 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | 8.5 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 5 | +2.9 | +3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 7 |  Athletics @ Houston Astros | 9.0 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 5 | +5.1 | +4.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 7 | Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | 9.0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 11 | −3.5 | −2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 7 | Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | 9.0 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 8 | −0.1 | +1.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 7 |  Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | 7.5 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 10 | −3.9 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 7 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | 12.5 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 16 | −6.8 | −3.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 7 | Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 8.0 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 6 | +3.1 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 7 | Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 8.5 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 18 | −9.2 | −9.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 7 | New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 10 | −2.3 | −2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 7 |  San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | 8.0 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 3 | +6.3 | +5.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 6 | Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | 9.0 | 8.3 | 0.7 | 4 | +4.3 | +5.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 6 | Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | 8.5 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 5 | +2.3 | +3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 6 | Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | 9.0 | 8.8 | 0.2 | 11 | −2.2 | −2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 6 | San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | 7.5 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 5 | +4.4 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 6 | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | 8.5 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 10 | −2.9 | −1.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 6 | Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | 10.0 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 9 | −0.8 | +1.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 6 | Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.5 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 7 | +2.4 | +2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 6 | Athletics @ Houston Astros | 9.5 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 15 | −7.1 | −5.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 6 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | 8.0 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 9 | −1.1 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 6 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | 7.5 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 7 | −0.0 | +0.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 6 | Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | 7.5 | 7.3 | 0.2 | 6 | +1.3 | +1.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 6 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | 10.5 | 9.1 | 1.4 | 8 | +1.1 | +2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 6 | Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 8.5 | 10.8 | 2.3 | 11 | −0.2 | −2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 6 | New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | 7.5 | 7.3 | 0.2 | 5 | +2.3 | +2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 5 | San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs | 11.0 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 21 | −12.6 | −10.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers | 8.0 | 7.8 | 0.2 | 10 | −2.2 | −2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies | 8.5 | 8.2 | 0.3 | 14 | −5.8 | −5.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | 8.0 | 8.3 | 0.3 | 8 | +0.3 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | 8.0 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 16 | −6.9 | −8.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 5 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 6 | +1.7 | +1.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 9 | −1.4 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Athletics @ Houston Astros | 9.0 | 9.7 | 0.7 | 6 | +3.7 | +3.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals | 9.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 13 | −5.4 | −4.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 5 | +2.7 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | 8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 8 | −0.0 | +0.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 5 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies | 11.5 | 11.1 | 0.4 | 16 | −4.9 | −4.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.0 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 15 | −6.3 | −6.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 5 | New York Mets @ San Diego Padres | 7.0 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 5 | +2.3 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 4 | San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | 8.5 | 9.5 | 1.0 | 10 | −0.5 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 4 | Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | 10.5 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 10 | −3.3 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 4 | Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +5.5 | +5.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 4 | San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | 9.0 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 21 | −13.9 | −12.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 4 |  Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | 7.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 9 | −1.0 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 4 | Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | 9.5 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 14 | −6.1 | −4.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 4 | Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | 10.0 | 10.9 | 0.9 | 13 | −2.1 | −3.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 6 | +2.7 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 4 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.0 | 8.8 | 0.2 | 5 | +3.8 | +4.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 3 | Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | 8.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 5 | +3.5 | +3.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 3 | Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays | 8.0 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 9 | −0.1 | −1.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 3 | Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | 8.5 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 8 | −0.6 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 3 | New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners | 7.0 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 8 | −0.3 | −1.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 3 | San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | 7.5 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 5 | +3.5 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 3 | Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | 9.0 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 9 | −1.1 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 3 | Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | 7.5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 9 | −1.1 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 3 | Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds | 8.5 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 7 | +0.8 | +1.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 3 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | 8.0 | 8.3 | 0.3 | 10 | −1.7 | −2.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 3 | San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | 8.0 | 8.3 | 0.3 | 1 | +7.3 | +7.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 3 | Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 8 | +0.0 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 3 | Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | 9.0 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 9 | +1.1 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | 7.5 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 20 | −11.6 | −12.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 3 | Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 15 | −7.4 | −6.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 3 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.0 | 8.8 | 0.2 | 7 | +1.8 | +2.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 2 | Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays | 8.5 | 9.8 | 1.3 | 8 | +1.8 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 2 | San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies | 8.0 | 9.2 | 1.2 | 5 | +4.2 | +3.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 2 | Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox | 8.5 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 6 | +1.4 | +2.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 2 | Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | 9.0 | 8.9 | 0.1 | 10 | −1.1 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 2 | Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees | 7.5 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 13 | −4.9 | −5.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 2 | Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds | 9.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 7 | +0.6 | +2.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 2 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves | 7.5 | 8.7 | 1.2 | 7 | +1.7 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 2 | Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | 8.0 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 10 | −1.6 | −2.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 2 | San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 11 | −3.5 | −3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 2 | Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 11 | −3.5 | −3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 2 | Athletics @ Chicago Cubs | 7.5 | 9.8 | 2.3 | 3 | +6.8 | +4.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros | 9.0 | 9.6 | 0.6 | 16 | −6.4 | −7.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 2 | Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels | 8.5 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 10 | −2.2 | −1.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.5 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 11 | −2.0 | −1.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 2 | New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners | 7.5 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 11 | −2.7 | −3.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 1 | Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 19 | −11.0 | −11.0 | Tie · 11.0 |
| Jun 1 | Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | 8.5 | 9.7 | 1.2 | 10 | −0.3 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 1 | Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds | 8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 11 | −3.0 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 1 | Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | 8.0 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 15 | −7.9 | −7.0 | Vegas |
| Jun 1 | San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 18 | −10.3 | −10.5 | BBMI |
| Jun 1 | Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8.0 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 3 | +4.3 | +5.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 1 | Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels | 8.5 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 17 | −8.7 | −8.5 | Vegas |
| Jun 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.0 | 8.8 | 0.2 | 5 | +3.8 | +4.0 | BBMI |
| Jun 1 | New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners | 7.0 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 5 | +3.2 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| May 31 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 14 | −7.0 | −6.0 | Vegas |
| May 31 | San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.0 | +3.0 | BBMI |
| May 31 | Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 12 | −4.3 | −4.5 | BBMI |
| May 31 | Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | 7.0 | 7.6 | 0.6 | 13 | −5.4 | −6.0 | BBMI |
| May 31 | Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays | 8.0 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 7 | +2.8 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| May 31 | Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds | 8.5 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 10 | −0.1 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| May 31 | Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | 7.5 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 11 | −4.2 | −3.5 | Vegas |
| May 31 | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | 7.5 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 3 | +5.4 | +4.5 | Vegas |
| May 31 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros | 7.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2 | +7.5 | +5.5 | Vegas |
| May 31 | Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers | 7.5 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 9 | −2.0 | −1.5 | Vegas |
| May 31 | San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies | 11.0 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 25 | −16.3 | −14.0 | Vegas |
| May 31 | New York Yankees @ Athletics | 10.0 | 9.2 | 0.8 | 21 | −11.8 | −11.0 | Vegas |
| May 31 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners | 7.5 | 8.7 | 1.2 | 5 | +3.7 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| May 31 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9.0 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 10 | −2.8 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| May 31 | Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 6 | +2.7 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| May 30 | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | 7.5 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 8 | +0.4 | −0.5 | BBMI |
| May 30 | San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals | 7.5 | 9.7 | 2.2 | 13 | −3.3 | −5.5 | BBMI |
| May 30 | Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers | 8.0 | 7.6 | 0.4 | 13 | −5.4 | −5.0 | Vegas |
| May 30 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles | 7.5 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 11 | −2.2 | −3.5 | BBMI |
| May 30 | Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.0 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 19 | −10.9 | −11.0 | BBMI |
| May 30 | Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | 6.5 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 10 | −2.3 | −3.5 | BBMI |
| May 30 | Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays | 7.0 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 17 | −9.3 | −10.0 | BBMI |
| May 30 | Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | 7.0 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 7 | −0.2 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| May 30 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros | 8.5 | 9.4 | 0.9 | 11 | −1.6 | −2.5 | BBMI |
| May 30 | Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8.0 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 7 | +2.3 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| May 30 | Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds | 9.5 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 7 | +1.8 | +2.5 | BBMI |
| May 30 | San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies | 11.0 | 10.3 | 0.7 | 11 | −0.7 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| May 30 | New York Yankees @ Athletics | 9.5 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 10 | +1.5 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| May 30 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners | 7.0 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 6 | +1.9 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| May 30 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 8.5 | 10.2 | 1.7 | 7 | +3.2 | +1.5 | Vegas |
| May 29 | Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds | 9.5 | 10.4 | 0.9 | 11 | −0.6 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| May 29 | San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 12 | −3.0 | −3.0 | BBMI |
| May 29 | Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 11 | −3.0 | −3.0 | Vegas |
| May 29 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles | 8.5 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 11 | −3.3 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| May 29 | Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | 8.0 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 7 | +1.4 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| May 29 | Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays | 8.0 | 7.7 | 0.3 | 13 | −5.3 | −5.0 | Vegas |
| May 29 | Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | 7.5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 16 | −8.1 | −8.5 | BBMI |
| May 29 | Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | 8.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 11 | −2.0 | −3.0 | BBMI |
| May 29 | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | 8.5 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 7 | +1.1 | +1.5 | BBMI |
| May 29 | Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers | 7.5 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 10 | −3.3 | −2.5 | Vegas |
| May 29 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros | 8.5 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 9 | −0.2 | −0.5 | BBMI |
| May 29 | San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 14 | −3.5 | −3.5 | Tie · 3.5 |
| May 29 | New York Yankees @ Athletics | 10.0 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 10 | −0.5 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| May 29 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners | 7.0 | 9.6 | 2.6 | 13 | −3.4 | −6.0 | BBMI |
| May 29 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 8.0 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 6 | +3.4 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| May 28 | Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers | 9.0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 8 | −0.5 | +1.0 | BBMI |
| May 28 | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 8.0 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 8 | +0.1 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| May 28 | Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox | 7.0 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 12 | −4.2 | −5.0 | BBMI |
| May 28 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles | 8.5 | 9.5 | 1.0 | 3 | +6.5 | +5.5 | Vegas |
| May 28 | Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 7.5 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 9 | −0.9 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| May 28 | Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | 7.5 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 6 | +0.9 | +1.5 | BBMI |
| May 27 | Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7.5 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 3 | +5.1 | +4.5 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians | 7.5 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 5 | +3.3 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| May 27 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers | 8.5 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 3 | +6.2 | +5.5 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | 9.0 | 8.1 | 0.9 | 10 | −1.9 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | 7.5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 5 | +2.9 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres | 7.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 3 | +5.0 | +4.0 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | 9.0 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 13 | −4.8 | −4.0 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers | 7.5 | 8.7 | 1.2 | 4 | +4.7 | +3.5 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.5 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 14 | −5.2 | −5.5 | BBMI |
| May 27 | Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox | 8.0 | 7.8 | 0.2 | 8 | −0.2 | +0.0 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets | 8.0 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 6 | +2.1 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| May 27 | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 8.0 | 8.3 | 0.3 | 17 | −8.8 | −9.0 | BBMI |
| May 27 | New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals | 9.0 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 7 | +1.6 | +2.0 | BBMI |
| May 27 | Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | 7.5 | 7.3 | 0.2 | 7 | +0.3 | +0.5 | BBMI |
| May 27 | Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 8.0 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 5 | +5.9 | +3.0 | Vegas |
| May 26 | Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians | 7.5 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 9 | −0.4 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| May 26 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | 8.5 | 9.1 | 0.6 | 7 | +2.1 | +1.5 | Vegas |
| May 26 | Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers | 8.5 | 9.4 | 0.9 | 16 | −6.6 | −7.5 | BBMI |
| May 26 | Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 13 | −5.0 | −5.0 | BBMI |
| May 26 | Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox | 8.5 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 13 | −5.2 | −4.5 | Vegas |
| May 26 | Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays | 8.0 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 9 | −0.1 | −1.0 | BBMI |
| May 26 | Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets | 7.5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 9 | −1.1 | −1.5 | BBMI |
| May 26 | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 7.5 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 8 | +0.3 | −0.5 | BBMI |
| May 26 | New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals | 9.0 | 9.8 | 0.8 | 16 | −6.2 | −7.0 | BBMI |
| May 26 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers | 8.0 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 6 | +3.9 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| May 26 | Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | 8.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 17 | −8.5 | −9.0 | BBMI |
| May 26 | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | 9.5 | 10.2 | 0.7 | 5 | +5.2 | +4.5 | Vegas |
| May 26 | Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres | 8.0 | 9.2 | 1.2 | 7 | +2.2 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| May 26 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | 8.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 12 | −3.5 | −4.0 | BBMI |
| May 26 | Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9.0 | 11.6 | 2.6 | 21 | −9.4 | −12.0 | BBMI |
| May 25 | Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.0 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 3 | +5.8 | +5.0 | Vegas |
| May 25 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | 7.5 | 7.6 | 0.1 | 16 | −8.4 | −8.5 | BBMI |
| May 25 | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 8.0 | 7.8 | 0.2 | 4 | +3.8 | +4.0 | BBMI |
| May 25 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7.5 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 6 | +2.1 | +1.5 | Vegas |
| May 25 | New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 7 | +2.0 | +2.0 | Vegas |
| May 25 | Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets | 7.5 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 9 | −2.1 | −1.5 | Vegas |
| May 25 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | 7.5 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 8 | +0.5 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| May 25 | Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians | 8.0 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 12 | −3.2 | −4.0 | BBMI |
| May 25 | Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres | 7.5 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 3 | +5.8 | +4.5 | Vegas |
| May 25 | Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | 8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 9 | −1.0 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| May 25 | Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7.5 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 10 | −1.9 | −2.5 | BBMI |
| May 25 | Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 9.0 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 8 | +3.5 | +1.0 | Vegas |
| May 25 | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | 10.5 | 10.4 | 0.1 | 11 | −0.6 | −0.5 | Vegas |
| May 24 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7.5 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 5 | +4.1 | +2.5 | Vegas |
| May 24 | Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 8 | +0.7 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| May 24 | Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles | 8.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 5 | +2.5 | +3.0 | BBMI |
| May 24 | Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | 7.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 11 | −4.5 | −3.5 | Vegas |
| May 24 | Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 7.5 | 9.7 | 2.2 | 4 | +5.7 | +3.5 | Vegas |
| May 24 | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | 7.0 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 2 | +6.3 | +5.0 | Vegas |
| May 24 | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | 8.5 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 4 | +2.2 | +4.5 | BBMI |
| May 24 | Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 14 | −5.3 | −5.5 | BBMI |
| May 24 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 8.0 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 6 | +1.2 | +2.0 | BBMI |
| May 24 | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 7.0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 13 | −4.1 | −6.0 | BBMI |
| May 24 | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 13 | −7.1 | −5.0 | Vegas |
| May 24 | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 10 | −3.6 | −1.0 | Vegas |
| May 24 | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 8.5 | 8.9 | 0.4 | 7 | +1.9 | +1.5 | Vegas |
| May 24 | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 8.5 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 3 | +4.9 | +5.5 | BBMI |
| May 24 | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 8.0 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 3 | +5.4 | +5.0 | Vegas |
| May 23 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 9.5 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 9 | +2.0 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| May 23 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | 9.5 | 9.6 | 0.1 | 13 | −3.4 | −3.5 | BBMI |
| May 23 | Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs | 7.5 | 7.8 | 0.3 | 3 | +4.8 | +4.5 | Vegas |
| May 23 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays | 7.5 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 7 | +1.1 | +0.5 | Vegas |
| May 23 | Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies | 7.0 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 3 | +7.7 | +4.0 | Vegas |
| May 23 | Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants | 8.5 | 8.4 | 0.1 | 13 | −4.6 | −4.5 | Vegas |
| May 23 | Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 5 | +3.7 | +3.5 | Vegas |
| May 23 | Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox | 8.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 6 | +0.5 | +2.0 | BBMI |
| May 23 | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 9.0 | 9.8 | 0.8 | 2 | +7.8 | +7.0 | Vegas |
| May 23 | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | 8.0 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 5 | +1.4 | +3.0 | BBMI |
| May 23 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 9.0 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 14 | −4.5 | −5.0 | BBMI |
| May 23 | Athletics @ San Diego Padres | 8.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 2 | +6.5 | +6.0 | Vegas |
| May 23 | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 7 | −0.1 | +1.0 | BBMI |
| May 23 | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 9.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 9 | +1.0 | +0.0 | Vegas |
How to read this page
Win rate on picks is the headline, but it’s noisy on small samples. Line quality is the underlying skill: if the BBMI number is consistently closer to the final score than the market’s, the pick edge follows. This page tracks that directly — every game, not just the ones we picked.
MAE is the average miss. RMSE weights big misses harder. Bias shows whether projections systematically run high (+) or low (−).
Closer to Actual counts how many games each source was nearer the actual total — the most intuitive comparison. Projected winner accuracy shows how often each source’s implied winner was right; BBMI uses its projected margin, Vegas its moneyline-implied probability. It is a projection-quality diagnostic, not a picks record.
BBMI F9 projections come from a per-PA Monte Carlo simulator (500 trials/game) sampling per-pitcher and per-batter rate models with park factors and venue scoring adjustments. Deployed May 23; prior Negative Binomial engine retired and paper-tracked off-site. Vegas lines are captured from the opening line of the day.
Projections are generated before first pitch using data available through the prior day. Vegas lines are captured at a specific point in time and may differ from closing lines. View today’s picks →