October Pulse.
The BBMI model’s projected 2026 postseason. Twelve clubs, three division winners and three wild cards per league, with a first-round bye for the top two seeds. Brewers are the model’s champion at 100% to win it. Series not yet set show the most likely path; series under way show their score.
The percentage beside each club is its chance of reaching that round at all, across every simulated season — not conditional on this bracket. This is the one sport here whose simulation publishes the whole ladder, so every round carries a real number: reaching the postseason, the Division Series, the Championship Series, the World Series and winning it. Baseball decides its postseason in series rather than single games, so each round shows its format. The top-two bye column is the share of simulated seasons a club finishes first or second in its league and skips the Wild Card Series. It is counted off the same seeding this bracket is built from, so the two cannot disagree. Reaching the Division Series is a wider event — that includes every club that won a wild-card series. The highlighted side of a card is the club likelier to reach that round; the BBMI pick beneath it is the club likelier to reach the next one, and the footer prints both sides of that number. Those two can point different ways, which is why the footer shows its own pair rather than asking you to read the pick off the rows above. Division Series onward shows favorites advancing, not fixed matchups.
Road to the World Series
The 12-club field · six per leagueOctober contenders
all 30 clubsProjected record is the expected win total across the simulated seasons, shown rounded, since a decimal on a 162-game record reads as false precision. Top-2 bye skips the Wild Card Series entirely: the share of simulated seasons the club lands on the top two seeds in its league. No other column here is that number wearing a different name, because reaching the Division Series also counts every wild-card winner.