MLB · Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Pulse

Playoff probabilities updated daily · 10,000 season simulations

Last updated: Apr 29, 5:10 PM · 1,986 games remaining
Early season: Teams have played fewer than 30 games. Probabilities are heavily influenced by prior expectations and will shift significantly as more games are played. The projected wins range reflects this uncertainty.
Projected Postseason Bracket
10,000 simulations · probabilities show likelihood of reaching each round
American League
Wild Card
3Seattle Mariners logoMariners73%
6Oakland Athletics logoAthletics56%
4Tampa Bay Rays logoRays98%
5Texas Rangers logoRangers59%
Div Series
1New York Yankees logoYankees95%
Seattle Mariners logoMariners49%
2Detroit Tigers logoTigers60%
Tampa Bay Rays logoRays53%
Champ Series
New York Yankees logoYankees42%
Detroit Tigers logoTigers30%
Pennant
New York Yankees logoYankees19%
World Series
Atlanta Braves logoBraves10.5%to win it all
National League
Wild Card
3Chicago Cubs logoCubs89%
6Milwaukee Brewers logoBrewers66%
4San Diego Padres logoPadres95%
5Cincinnati Reds logoReds82%
Div Series
1Los Angeles Dodgers logoDodgers85%
Chicago Cubs logoCubs51%
2Atlanta Braves logoBraves92%
San Diego Padres logoPadres56%
Champ Series
Los Angeles Dodgers logoDodgers40%
Atlanta Braves logoBraves45%
Pennant
Atlanta Braves logoBraves22%
#TeamW-L ⇅GBPlayoff % ▼Div % ⇅WC %LDS % ⇅LCS % ⇅WS % ⇅Proj Record ⇅
AL East
1New York Yankees logoNew York Yankees20-10—100.0%89.3%10.7%94.5%41.5%18.8%103-59
2Tampa Bay Rays logoTampa Bay Rays18-111.598.0%10.7%87.3%53.3%26.7%12.8%93-69
3Toronto Blue Jays logoToronto Blue Jays13-166.520.6%0.0%20.6%10.2%5.7%2.9%76-86
4Baltimore Orioles logoBaltimore Orioles14-155.513.6%0.0%13.6%6.8%3.7%2.1%75-87
5Boston Red Sox logoBoston Red Sox12-18810.0%0.0%10.0%5.0%2.8%1.7%74-88
AL Central
6Detroit Tigers logoDetroit Tigers15-15—83.7%67.8%15.9%60.2%30.4%15.4%86-76
7Cleveland Guardians logoCleveland Guardians15-16—51.5%23.5%28.0%31.6%16.2%8.5%81-81
8Minnesota Twins logoMinnesota Twins13-171.515.0%4.2%10.8%8.2%4.7%2.5%75-87
9Kansas City Royals logoKansas City Royals12-17212.6%3.6%9.0%6.8%3.9%2.2%74-88
10Chicago White Sox logoChicago White Sox13-171.53.4%0.8%2.6%2.0%1.0%0.6%70-92
AL West
11Seattle Mariners logoSeattle Mariners15-16—72.6%45.7%26.9%48.9%25.2%13.0%84-78
12Texas Rangers logoTexas Rangers14-160.558.8%27.3%31.5%35.6%18.9%9.4%82-80
13Oakland Athletics logoOakland Athletics15-14—56.4%26.2%30.2%35.0%18.2%9.7%82-80
14Houston Astros logoHouston Astros11-193.52.3%0.5%1.8%1.2%0.6%0.3%69-93
15Los Angeles Angels logoLos Angeles Angels12-1931.5%0.4%1.1%0.8%0.5%0.2%68-94
How BBMI simulates the season: Each remaining game is projected using Bayesian-shrunk team win rates that blend BBMI power rankings (60%) with prior-year Pythagorean records (40%), regressed 15% toward .500. Win probabilities use the log5 formula with a 54% home-field advantage. The simulation runs 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations — each iteration simulates every remaining regular-season game, then runs the full postseason bracket: Wild Card (best-of-3), Division Series (best-of-5), Championship Series (best-of-7), and World Series (best-of-7) with correct MLB home-field patterns. As the season progresses, observed records gradually replace priors (k=50 shrinkage). Results update each morning after the prior day's games are final.

Simulation uses Bayesian-shrunk team win rates with home field advantage. 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations per update.

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