MLB · POSTSEASON · 2026 SEASON

October Pulse.

The BBMI model’s projected 2026 postseason. Twelve clubs, three division winners and three wild cards per league, with a first-round bye for the top two seeds. Dodgers are the model’s champion at 23% to win it. Series past the wild-card round show the most likely path, not a fixed bracket.

Rebuilt nightly from the season simulation · 2026-09-14 · 185 games left across the league

Field · six per league

Dodgers

Projected champion · 23% title odds

Clubs at 5%+ to reach October

10,000

Simulated seasons

HOW TO READ THIS

The percentage beside each club is its chance of reaching that round at all, across every simulated season — not conditional on this bracket. This is the one sport here whose simulation publishes the whole ladder, so every round carries a real number: reaching the postseason, the Division Series, the Championship Series, the World Series and winning it. Baseball decides its postseason in series rather than single games, so each round shows its format. The top-two bye column in the table reads as a dash: a bye is a seed outcome and this simulation publishes no seed distribution, and reaching the Division Series is not the same thing — that includes every club that won a wild-card series. The highlighted side of a card is the club likelier to reach that round; the BBMI pick beneath it is the club likelier to reach the next one, and the footer prints both sides of that number. Those two can point different ways, which is why the footer shows its own pair rather than asking you to read the pick off the rows above. Division Series onward shows favorites advancing, not fixed matchups.

Road to the World Series

Projected 12-club field · six per league

AMERICAN LEAGUEseeds 1–6 · top two bye

WILD CARDbest-of-3

Wild Card · at Astros

6Guardians67%

3Astros69%

BBMI Guardiansreaches the ALDS 50% to 45%

Wild Card · at Yankees

5Red Sox100%

4Yankees100%

BBMI Yankeesreaches the ALDS 56% to 48%

FIRST-ROUND BYES

Rays and White Sox are idle as the projected top two seeds, and open in the Division Series.

DIVISION SERIESbest-of-5

ALDS · at Rays

4Yankees56%

1Rays97%

BBMI Raysreaches the ALCS 57% to 31%

ALDS · at White Sox

6Guardians50%

2White Sox63%

BBMI White Soxreaches the ALCS 24% to 20%

ALCSbest-of-7

ALCS · at Rays

4Yankees31%

1Rays57%

BBMI Raysreaches the World Series 35% to 18%

NATIONAL LEAGUEseeds 1–6 · top two bye

WILD CARDbest-of-3

Wild Card · at Braves

6Padres87%

3Braves100%

BBMI Bravesreaches the NLDS 59% to 36%

Wild Card · at Cubs

5Phillies97%

4Cubs97%

BBMI Philliesreaches the NLDS 51% to 51%

FIRST-ROUND BYES

Dodgers and Brewers are idle as the projected top two seeds, and open in the Division Series.

DIVISION SERIESbest-of-5

NLDS · at Dodgers

5Phillies51%

1Dodgers96%

BBMI Dodgersreaches the NLCS 59% to 25%

NLDS · at Brewers

3Braves59%

2Brewers99%

BBMI Brewersreaches the NLCS 54% to 23%

NLCSbest-of-7

NLCS · at Dodgers

2Brewers54%

1Dodgers59%

BBMI Dodgersreaches the World Series 35% to 26%

WORLD SERIES · BEST-OF-7

1Rays35%

1Dodgers35%

BBMI Dodgerswins it 23%

35% chance of reaching that round at all, across every simulated seasonBBMI projected winnerDivision Series onward = most likely path

October contenders

all 30 clubs

#CLUBPROJ W–LWIN DIVMAKE OCTTOP-2 BYEWIN WS

1Dodgers1NL West98–64100%100%—23%

2Rays1AL East97–6591%100%—16%

3Brewers2NL Central100–62100%100%—16%

4Phillies5NL East89–731%97%—8%

5Yankees4AL East93–699%100%—7%

6Cubs4NL Central89–730%97%—6%

7Braves3NL East95–6799%100%—6%

8Red Sox5AL East88–740%100%—5%

9Astros3AL West81–8165%69%—4%

10Guardians6AL Central82–8038%67%—3%

11Padres6NL West88–740%87%—2%

12RangersAL West80–8233%38%—2%

13White Sox2AL Central83–7962%82%—2%

14Blue JaysAL East81–810%40%—<1%

15DiamondbacksNL West85–770%19%—<1%

16MarinersAL West77–852%2%—<1%

17OriolesAL East77–850%<1%—0%

18TigersAL Central76–86<1%<1%—0%

19TwinsAL Central77–86<1%<1%—0%

20RedsNL Central75–870%0%—0%

21RockiesNL West60–1020%0%—0%

22RoyalsAL Central71–910%0%—0%

23AngelsAL West62–1010%0%—0%

24MarlinsNL East79–830%0%—0%

25MetsNL East75–870%0%—0%

26AthleticsAL West66–960%0%—0%

27PiratesNL Central81–810%0%—0%

28GiantsNL West67–950%0%—0%

29CardinalsNL Central80–820%0%—0%

30NationalsNL East75–870%0%—0%

Projected record is the expected win total across the simulated seasons, shown rounded, since a decimal on a 162-game record reads as false precision. Top-2 bye skips the Wild Card Series entirely; it reads as a dash because it is a seed outcome this simulation does not publish, and no other column here is that number wearing a different name.

The projected field

derived from published odds

AMERICAN LEAGUE

SDCLUBBIDMAKE

1RaysAL EastDIV100%

2White SoxAL CentralDIV82%

3AstrosAL WestDIV69%

4YankeesAL EastWC100%

5Red SoxAL EastWC100%

6GuardiansAL CentralWC67%

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SDCLUBBIDMAKE

1DodgersNL WestDIV100%

2BrewersNL CentralDIV100%

3BravesNL EastDIV100%

4CubsNL CentralWC97%

5PhilliesNL EastWC97%

6PadresNL WestWC87%

Seeds 1 and 2 carry the bye and are shaded. The seeds are derived from published odds — the best division odds in each division take the three division slots, ordered by postseason odds, and the three best remaining fill 4 through 6. The artboard’s slot column, how often a club held that exact seed, is not published here, so the make-October number stands in its place.

On the bubble

20% to 80% to reach October

Astros81–8169%

Guardians82–8067%

Rangers80–8238%

Blue Jays81–8140%

These are the clubs the last places actually turn on. A weekend moves them in or out of the field, which is not true of the clubs above 80% or below 20%.

Probabilities may not add to 100%. Remaining schedules and probable starters are re-simulated nightly. All results are model projections, not guarantees.