Playoff Pulse.
Every remaining game simulated 10,000 times, each night after the games are final. Playoff odds, division races, and the most likely October bracket — updated as the standings move.
The most likely October
% = share of sims reaching the World Series
Rangers8.7%
Guardians9.2%
Yankees18.5%
Red Sox7.6%
Rays32.6%
White Sox9.4%
Braves7.8%
D-backs4.0%
Cubs5.8%
Phillies9.5%
Dodgers40.4%
Brewers27.8%Seeds reflect the current projected bracket. The percentage beside each team is its World Series appearance rate across the 10,000 simulations, not a per-series win probability.
Division races
Proj = expected W–L (talent-based)AL East
| Team | Record | GB | Proj | Playoff % | Div % | WS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 64–44 | — | 92–70 | 99% | 76% | 32.6% |
| Yankees | 61–48 | 3.5 | 91–71 | 99% | 23% | 18.5% |
| Red Sox | 56–51 | 7.5 | 85–77 | 73% | 1% | 7.6% |
 Orioles | 53–56 | 11.5 | 79–83 | 11% | 1% | 0.7% |
 Blue Jays | 50–59 | 14.5 | 77–85 | 2% | 1% | 0.1% |
AL Central
| Team | Record | GB | Proj | Playoff % | Div % | WS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | 57–51 | — | 83–79 | 76% | 49% | 9.4% |
| Guardians | 56–54 | 2 | 81–81 | 70% | 39% | 9.2% |
 Twins | 55–55 | 3 | 78–84 | 28% | 10% | 3.1% |
 Tigers | 51–58 | 6.5 | 80–82 | 7% | 2% | 0.7% |
 Royals | 46–64 | 12 | 70–92 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% |
AL West
| Team | Record | GB | Proj | Playoff % | Div % | WS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 55–54 | — | 84–78 | 61% | 49% | 8.7% |
 Astros | 55–55 | 0.5 | 83–79 | 45% | 33% | 5.0% |
 Mariners | 53–56 | 2 | 82–80 | 28% | 18% | 4.3% |
 Athletics | 45–63 | 9.5 | 68–94 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% |
 Angels | 42–67 | 13 | 65–97 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% |
NL East
| Team | Record | GB | Proj | Playoff % | Div % | WS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 63–45 | — | 91–71 | 99% | 90% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | 57–52 | 6.5 | 86–76 | 60% | 8% | 9.5% |
 Marlins | 55–54 | 8.5 | 80–82 | 16% | 1% | 0.6% |
 Nationals | 55–54 | 8.5 | 78–84 | 16% | 1% | 0.7% |
 Mets | 46–63 | 17.5 | 74–88 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% |
NL Central
| Team | Record | GB | Proj | Playoff % | Div % | WS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 67–41 | — | 96–66 | 99% | 95% | 27.8% |
| Cubs | 62–47 | 5.5 | 89–73 | 97% | 5% | 5.8% |
 Pirates | 55–54 | 12.5 | 82–80 | 16% | 1% | 0.9% |
 Cardinals | 54–55 | 13.5 | 78–84 | 12% | 1% | 0.6% |
 Reds | 50–57 | 16.5 | 74–88 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% |
NL West
| Team | Record | GB | Proj | Playoff % | Div % | WS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 68–40 | — | 101–61 | 99% | 99% | 40.4% |
| D-backs | 57–52 | 11.5 | 83–79 | 55% | 1% | 4.0% |
 Padres | 55–53 | 13 | 81–81 | 30% | 1% | 1.8% |
 Giants | 46–62 | 22 | 73–89 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% |
 Rockies | 42–67 | 26.5 | 63–99 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% |
Green ≥ 60% playoff odds · red < 15%. Tables sorted by division odds.
How the simulation works
Each night the rest of the season is played 10,000 times. Every game uses Bayesian-shrunk team win rates — BBMI power ratings blended with prior-year Pythagorean records, regressed toward .500 — with the log5 formula and home-field advantage.
Playoff % is the share of simulations where a team reaches October. Proj W–L is the talent-based expected finish (banked wins plus remaining games projected from current full-strength roster talent; a hot or cold start regresses toward the roster’s established talent), and WS % is how often a team reaches the World Series. Each iteration plays out the full postseason bracket — Wild Card, Division Series, Championship Series, and World Series — with correct MLB home-field patterns. Odds move when the standings move; a sweep can swing a tight race by double digits.