MLB · 10,000 season simulations

Playoff Pulse.

Every remaining game simulated 10,000 times, each night after the games are final. Playoff odds, division races, and the most likely October bracket — updated as the standings move.

SimmedJun 15
GuardiansBest title odds · 9.4%
AL CentralClosest race · 0 GB
10,000Simulations
1,362Games remaining

The most likely October

% = share of sims reaching the World Series
American League
Wild Card
3Seattle Mariners logoMariners11.9%
6Texas Rangers logoRangers8.5%
4Tampa Bay Rays logoRays14.5%
5Chicago White Sox logoWhite Sox15.4%
Division Series
1New York Yankees logoYankees18.4%
 WC winner
2Cleveland Guardians logoGuardians17.7%
 WC winner
World Series
Most likely Fall Classic
Braves × Yankees
top WS-odds team in each league
19.3%Braves pennant odds18.4%Yankees pennant odds
Per-matchup frequencies aren’t simulated — the full WS-odds table is below.
National League
Wild Card
3Milwaukee Brewers logoBrewers18.2%
6San Diego Padres logoPadres7.1%
4Philadelphia Phillies logoPhillies9.4%
5St. Louis Cardinals logoCardinals9.3%
Division Series
1Los Angeles Dodgers logoDodgers18.6%
 WC winner
2Atlanta Braves logoBraves19.3%
 WC winner

Seeds reflect the current projected bracket. The percentage beside each team is its World Series appearance rate across the 10,000 simulations, not a per-series win probability.

Division races

Proj = projected W–L

AL East

TeamRecordGBProjPlayoff %Div %WS %
New York Yankees logoYankees43–27—100–6299%75%18.4%
Tampa Bay Rays logoRays41–27195–6799%25%14.5%
Toronto Blue Jays logoBlue Jays34–381078–8424%1%3.0%
Baltimore Orioles logoOrioles34–3910.574–886%1%1.1%
Boston Red Sox logoRed Sox29–4013.572–903%1%0.5%

AL Central

TeamRecordGBProjPlayoff %Div %WS %
Cleveland Guardians logoGuardians39–33—88–7494%63%17.7%
Chicago White Sox logoWhite Sox38–32—86–7684%36%15.4%
Minnesota Twins logoTwins33–406.573–894%1%0.8%
Detroit Tigers logoTigers29–429.571–912%1%0.2%
Kansas City Royals logoRoyals29–431069–931%1%0.1%

AL West

TeamRecordGBProjPlayoff %Div %WS %
Seattle Mariners logoMariners37–36—84–7877%53%11.9%
Texas Rangers logoRangers35–36182–8055%26%8.5%
Oakland Athletics logoAthletics35–36180–8243%19%6.6%
Houston Astros logoAstros33–40475–878%2%1.4%
Los Angeles Angels logoAngels29–437.567–951%1%0.1%

NL East

TeamRecordGBProjPlayoff %Div %WS %
Atlanta Braves logoBraves46–25—101–6199%98%19.3%
Philadelphia Phillies logoPhillies38–33886–7666%2%9.4%
Washington Nationals logoNationals37–359.581–8123%1%3.6%
Miami Marlins logoMarlins36–3610.580–8216%1%2.4%
New York Mets logoMets32–391473–891%1%0.2%

NL Central

TeamRecordGBProjPlayoff %Div %WS %
Milwaukee Brewers logoBrewers43–26—100–6299%97%18.2%
St. Louis Cardinals logoCardinals38–31586–7665%2%9.3%
Chicago Cubs logoCubs37–357.583–7939%1%5.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates logoPirates36–368.580–8216%1%2.2%
Cincinnati Reds logoReds33–3710.573–891%1%0.1%

NL West

TeamRecordGBProjPlayoff %Div %WS %
Los Angeles Dodgers logoDodgers45–27—101–6199%99%18.6%
San Diego Padres logoPadres37–33784–7850%1%7.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks logoD-backs36–358.581–8124%1%3.9%
San Francisco Giants logoGiants29–431669–931%1%0.1%
Colorado Rockies logoRockies27–451859–1031%1%0.1%

Green ≥ 60% playoff odds · red < 15%. Tables sorted by division odds.

How the simulation works

Each night the rest of the season is played 10,000 times. Every game uses Bayesian-shrunk team win rates — BBMI power ratings blended with prior-year Pythagorean records, regressed toward .500 — with the log5 formula and home-field advantage.

Playoff % is the share of simulations where a team reaches October. Proj W–L is the projected finish, and WS % is how often a team reaches the World Series. Each iteration plays out the full postseason bracket — Wild Card, Division Series, Championship Series, and World Series — with correct MLB home-field patterns. Odds move when the standings move; a sweep can swing a tight race by double digits.