Model Performance.
One place for every model’s public track record. Pick a sport to see its full picks log, edge-calibration tables, and line-quality comparison against Vegas. Nothing hidden, nothing removed. A record is only readable if you know what changed underneath it, so every model change is written up in the model changelog.
| Sport | Games | Winner acc BBMI / Vegas | Brier BBMI / Vegas | Margin MAE BBMI / Market | Game-Total MAE BBMI / Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 1,471 | 55.7% / 56.6% | 0.248 / 0.243 | 3.54 / n/a | 3.66 / 3.52 |
| NCAA Baseball | 5,048 | 63.9% / 62.8% | 0.223 / 0.221 | 4.61 / 4.45 | 4.61 / 4.46 |
| NCAA Basketball | 3,361 | 70.6% / 68.0% | 0.192 / 0.199 | 8.80 / 8.82 | 13.13 / 13.36 |
| NCAA Football | 891 | 70.3% / 74.5% | 0.193 / — | 13.68 / 11.88 | 12.96 / 12.58 |
| NFL | 831 | 66.6% / 71.1% | 0.215 / 0.200 | 10.02 / 9.33 | 10.28 / 9.45 |
NFL’s Vegas Brier is derived from the closing spread, σ = 13.4 pts; the market posts no probability. Every other Vegas figure in this table is read from a published price.
NCAA Basketball
NCAA Football
NCAA Baseball
MLB
WNBA
Market-competitive on accuracy, no established cash edge — locked before tip, graded against the closing line, tracked in public. Not a graded product.
Every record is computed from publicly logged picks — frozen before games, graded after, never removed. Net/ROI is figured at each pick’s posted odds.