The receipts · every model, every sport

Model Performance.

One place for every model’s public track record. Pick a sport to see its full picks log, edge-calibration tables, and line-quality comparison against Vegas. Nothing hidden, nothing removed. A record is only readable if you know what changed underneath it, so every model change is written up in the model changelog.

Forecast quality — how the model’s probabilities and totals grade against the market, every game counted, misses included. Lower Brier and MAE are better; green = BBMI ahead.
SportGamesWinner acc
BBMI / Vegas
Brier
BBMI / Vegas
Margin MAE
BBMI / Market
Game-Total MAE
BBMI / Market
MLB1,47155.7% / 56.6%0.248 / 0.2433.54 / n/a3.66 / 3.52
NCAA Baseball5,04863.9% / 62.8%0.223 / 0.2214.61 / 4.454.61 / 4.46
NCAA Basketball3,36170.6% / 68.0%0.192 / 0.1998.80 / 8.8213.13 / 13.36
NCAA Football89170.3% / 74.5%0.193 / 13.68 / 11.8812.96 / 12.58
NFL83166.6% / 71.1%0.215 / 0.20010.02 / 9.3310.28 / 9.45

NFL’s Vegas Brier is derived from the closing spread, σ = 13.4 pts; the market posts no probability. Every other Vegas figure in this table is read from a published price.

NCAA Basketball · flagship

NCAA Basketball

257-138
AGAINST THE SPREAD · 65.1%
1148-864
AGAINST THE SPREAD · 57.1%
795-484
OVER / UNDER · 62.2%
NCAA Football · walk-forward validated

NCAA Football

13-11
AGAINST THE SPREAD · 54.2%
47-48
AGAINST THE SPREAD · 49.5%
NCAA Baseball · ATS / O-U / ML

NCAA Baseball

622-465
AGAINST THE SPREAD · 57.2%
108-65
OVER / UNDER · 62.4%
MLB · live tracking

MLB

111-74-32
FIRST-5 MONEYLINE · 60.0%
125-99-1
FIRST-5 RUN LINE · 55.8%
92-57
FULL-GAME MONEYLINE · 61.7%
NFL · walk-forward validated

NFL

Building
TOTALS
4-4
AGAINST THE SPREAD · 50.0%
WIAA · spread tool

WIAA

Building
STRAIGHT-UP WINNER
Experimental · live paper experiments
WNBA · live paper experiment

WNBA

Live · 2026Experimental

Market-competitive on accuracy, no established cash edge — locked before tip, graded against the closing line, tracked in public. Not a graded product.

9-9
SPREADS · 50.0%
31-25
TOTALS · 55.4%

Every record is computed from publicly logged picks — frozen before games, graded after, never removed. Net/ROI is figured at each pick’s posted odds.