The receipts · every model, every sport
Model Performance.
One place for every model’s public track record. Pick a sport to see its full picks log, edge-calibration tables, and line-quality comparison against Vegas. Nothing hidden, nothing removed.
Forecast quality — how the model’s probabilities and totals grade against the market, every game counted, misses included. Lower Brier and MAE are better; green = BBMI ahead.
| Sport | Games | Winner acc BBMI / Vegas | Brier BBMI / Vegas | Margin MAE BBMI / Market | Game-Total MAE BBMI / Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 864 | 53.4% / 55.4% | 0.252 / 0.246 | 3.66 / n/a | 3.73 / 3.57 |
| NCAA Baseball | 5,048 | 63.9% / 62.8% | 0.223 / 0.221 | 4.61 / 4.45 | 4.61 / 4.46 |
| NCAA Basketball | 3,348 | 70.6% / 68.0% | 0.192 / 0.199 | 8.80 / 8.83 | 13.14 / 13.37 |
| NCAA Football | 796 | 69.0% / 73.4% | 0.202 / — | 13.74 / 11.84 | 12.90 / 12.68 |
| NFL | 816 | 66.6% / 71.0% | 0.215 / — | 10.00 / 9.30 | 10.28 / 9.45 |
Every record is computed from publicly logged picks — frozen before games, graded after, never removed. Net/ROI is figured at each pick’s posted odds.