Model Performance
One place for every model’s public track record. Pick a sport to see its full picks log, edge-calibration tables, and line-quality comparison against Vegas. Nothing hidden, nothing removed.
Overall premium
2026 seasons · rows marked “Included in overall” below
- Record (W-L-P)
- 2,541-1,661-42
- Win rate
- 60.5%
- Pick-weighted ROI
- +11.9%
How this is combined
One unit per pick. ROI = combined profit / combined stakes, using unrounded values. Each premium pick is counted once; all-picks rows, free picks, paper experiments, and calibration products are excluded. Completed 2026 college seasons and current 2026 seasons are included. MLB uses its logged simulation-era picks. F5 run line includes the full published product record and ROI.
Moneyline and full-game run-line returns use posted prices (the existing run-line calculation falls back to -110 if a price is missing). Other spread/total returns use the site's -110 convention. MLB pushes count as stakes with zero profit; other products retain their published decided-pick basis. Win rate excludes pushes.
| Included product | W-L-P | Stakes (u) | Profit (u) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA Basketball: AGAINST THE SPREAD · PREMIUM · EDGE ≥ 6 PTS | 257-138-0 | 395 | 95.87 |
| NCAA Basketball: OVER / UNDER · PREMIUM · EDGE ≥ 4 PTS | 795-484-0 | 1279 | 239.45 |
| NCAA Football: AGAINST THE SPREAD · PREMIUM · EDGE ≥ 6 PTS | 67-61-0 | 128 | -0.03 |
| NCAA Baseball: AGAINST THE SPREAD · PREMIUM · EDGE 2–6 RUNS | 622-465-0 | 1087 | 101.02 |
| NCAA Baseball: OVER / UNDER · PREMIUM · EDGE ≥ 4 RUNS | 108-65-0 | 173 | 33.28 |
| NFL: TOTALS · PREMIUM 4–6 · PREMIUM ★ 6+ | 23-17-0 | 40 | 3.93 |
| NFL: AGAINST THE SPREAD · PREMIUM | 21-26-0 | 47 | -6.89 |
| MLB: F5ML | 138-92-41 | 271 | 5.53 |
| MLB: F5RL | 126-100-1 | 227 | 14.62 |
| MLB: F9ML | 125-72-0 | 197 | 13.80 |
| MLB: F9RL | 259-141-0 | 400 | 6.37 |
Products by sport
Record = wins-losses-pushes
Historical forecast quality
Full published history, including prior seasons. These game counts are separate from the 2026 premium ROI above. Lower Brier and MAE are better; green = BBMI ahead.
| Sport | Historical games | Winner acc BBMI / Vegas | Brier BBMI / Vegas | Margin MAE BBMI / Market | Game-Total MAE BBMI / Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 1,695 | 56.6% / 57.3% | 0.247 / 0.242 | 3.47 / n/a | 3.57 / 3.45 |
| NCAA Baseball | 5,048 | 63.9% / 62.8% | 0.223 / 0.221 | 4.61 / 4.45 | 4.61 / 4.46 |
| NCAA Basketball | 3,361 | 70.6% / 68.0% | 0.192 / 0.199 | 8.80 / 8.82 | 13.13 / 13.36 |
| NCAA Football | 1,236 | 70.6% / 73.9% | 0.195 / 0.173 | 13.20 / 11.67 | 13.10 / 12.63 |
| NFL | 924 | 66.2% / 70.2% | 0.217 / 0.204 | 9.96 / 9.30 | 10.31 / 9.54 |
NCAA Football and NFL derive their Vegas Brier from the closing spread, each at the sigma that sport prices with, because those markets post no usable probability. Every other Vegas figure in this table is read from a published price.
ROI uses the same reporting window and calculation as each product's record. A dash means ROI is unavailable or not applicable. WNBA is a paper experiment.
Every record is computed from publicly logged picks — frozen before games, graded after, never removed. Net/ROI is figured at each pick’s posted odds.