WNBA · Per-game line comparison
BBMI vs Vegas
For every graded game, which line landed closer to the actual margin — the model’s published projection or the market’s close? No picks here, just line quality head to head. The live sample started July 19, 2026 and grows nightly.
ThroughAug 7 '26
44Games compared
90.9%Same side
7.63BBMI MAE
7.06Vegas MAE
Who was closer to the actual margin?
Lower MAE = sharper lineBBMI closer
18
40.9% of 44 games
vs
0 ties
Vegas closer
26
59.1%
Line quality by prediction target
Mean absolute error against the actual result — BBMI vs the market, each over the identical set of games where both post that number. Margin (spread) and game-total (over/under) are different predictions, scored separately.
Margin MAE
projected home margin vs actual margin
BBMI 7.63Market 7.06
paired sample · 44 games both post
Game-Total MAE
projected total vs actual combined score
Not available
Line disagreement distribution
44 graded games| Difference (points) | Games | % of total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 – 2 | 20 | 45.5% | |
| 2 – 4 | 13 | 29.5% | |
| 4 – 6 | 9 | 20.5% | |
| 6 – 8 | 1 | 2.3% | |
| 8+ | 1 | 2.3% | |
| Total | 44 | 100.0% |
Game by game · 44 games
Err = |projected margin − actual| · sort any column| Date ↓ | Matchup | Vegas (close) | BBMI | Diff | Actual | BBMI err | Vegas err | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7 '26 |  Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun | 5.0 | 0.9 | 4.1 | +3 | 3.9 | 8.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 7 '26 |  Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics | 5.5 | 1.7 | 3.8 | +5 | 6.7 | 10.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 7 '26 |  Golden State Valkyries @ Dallas Wings | 1.0 | -2.1 | 3.1 | -18 | 20.1 | 17.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 6 '26 |  Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever | -1.0 | -3.3 | 2.3 | -2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 6 '26 |  Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -10.5 | 6.0 | -7 | 17.5 | 23.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 6 '26 |  Toronto Tempo @ Portland Fire | -2.5 | -1.1 | 1.4 | +14 | 12.9 | 11.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 5 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream | -6.5 | -5.0 | 1.5 | +14 | 9.0 | 7.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 5 '26 |  Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty | -8.0 | -8.2 | 0.2 | +6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 5 '26 |  Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | +4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 5 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky | -2.5 | -3.4 | 0.9 | +7 | 3.6 | 4.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 4 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries | -11.5 | -11.8 | 0.3 | +11 | 0.8 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 3 '26 | Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -7.8 | 0.3 | +12 | 4.2 | 4.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 3 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream | -2.5 | -0.9 | 1.6 | -22 | 22.9 | 24.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 3 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky | 1.5 | -2.5 | 4.0 | -5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 2 '26 |  Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings | -11.0 | -13.0 | 2.0 | +20 | 7.0 | 9.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 2 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries | -14.0 | -11.4 | 2.6 | +17 | 5.6 | 3.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 1 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Chicago Sky | 6.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | +1 | 4.2 | 7.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 1 '26 |  New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | -2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 31 '26 | Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream | -11.5 | -7.9 | 3.6 | +9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 31 '26 | Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | +6 | 10.4 | 9.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 31 '26 |  Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | -14 | 7.0 | 6.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 30 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky | -5.5 | -5.9 | 0.4 | +6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 30 '26 |  Minnesota Lynx @ Toronto Tempo | 12.5 | 9.2 | 3.3 | -32 | 22.8 | 19.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 30 '26 | New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces | -4.5 | -1.0 | 3.5 | +5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 29 '26 | Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings | 1.5 | -4.9 | 6.4 | -1 | 5.9 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 29 '26 | Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury | 3.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | +2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 28 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics | -6.5 | -5.5 | 1.0 | +8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 28 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -11.5 | 5.0 | +7 | 4.5 | 9.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 28 '26 | Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm | 9.0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | -10 | 6.1 | 1.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 28 '26 |  Portland Fire @ Las Vegas Aces | -12.5 | -6.7 | 5.8 | +15 | 8.3 | 2.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 28 '26 | New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | -4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.5 | -4 | 5.0 | 5.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm | 9.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | -10 | 3.9 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 22 '26 |  Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -6.4 | 1.1 | +1 | 5.4 | 6.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Washington Mystics | 6.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | +1 | 4.7 | 7.0 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever | -10.5 | -11.5 | 1.0 | +35 | 23.5 | 24.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Dallas Wings @ Portland Fire | 7.0 | 7.9 | 0.9 | -4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 20 '26 | New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings | 4.5 | -6.4 | 10.9 | -1 | 7.4 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 20 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo | 10.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | -26 | 20.8 | 15.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 20 '26 |  Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 | -9.8 | 1.3 | -8 | 17.8 | 16.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 20 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | -3 | 3.7 | 6.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 19 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings | -10.0 | -11.5 | 1.5 | +8 | 3.5 | 2.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 19 '26 | Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream | -10.5 | -6.5 | 4.0 | +2 | 4.5 | 8.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 19 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury | -4.5 | -2.5 | 2.0 | +9 | 6.5 | 4.5 | Vegas |
What MAE measures — and why it matters
MAE (Mean Absolute Error) is the average gap between a projected margin and the actual final margin, in points. Lower is sharper. It scores every graded game — not just the ones with big edges — so it’s a cleaner read of model skill than win rate.
The comparison here is deliberately hard: our line is locked before tip; the market’s is the closing line, sharpened by every bet that came in after us. The picks record built on these lines is on the Model Accuracy page.
Lines from the home team’s perspective; actual margin = home score − away score. BBMI projection published and locked before tip; Vegas line is the captured close. Live paper experiment — no wagers placed or recommended.