WNBA · Per-game line comparison
BBMI vs Vegas
For every graded game, which line landed closer to the actual margin — the model’s published projection or the market’s close? No picks here, just line quality head to head. The live sample started July 19, 2026 and grows nightly.
ThroughSep 21 '26
127Games compared
89.0%Same side
9.61BBMI MAE
8.85Vegas MAE
Who was closer to the actual margin?
Lower MAE = sharper lineBBMI closer
55
43.3% of 127 games
vs
0 ties
Vegas closer
72
56.7%
Line quality by prediction target
Mean absolute error against the actual result — BBMI vs the market, each over the identical set of games where both post that number. Margin (spread) and game-total (over/under) are different predictions, scored separately.
Margin MAE
projected home margin vs actual margin
BBMI 9.61Market 8.85
paired sample · 127 games both post
Game-Total MAE
projected total vs actual combined score
BBMI 13.03Market 12.66
paired sample · 123 games both post
Line disagreement distribution
127 graded games| Difference (points) | Games | % of total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 – 2 | 53 | 41.7% | |
| 2 – 4 | 40 | 31.5% | |
| 4 – 6 | 19 | 15.0% | |
| 6 – 8 | 12 | 9.4% | |
| 8+ | 3 | 2.4% | |
| Total | 127 | 100.0% |
Game by game · 127 games
Err = |projected margin − actual| · sort any column| Date ↓ | Matchup | Vegas (close) | BBMI | Diff | Actual | BBMI err | Vegas err | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 '26 |  Atlanta Dream @ New York Liberty | 1.5 | -0.6 | 2.1 | -11 | 11.6 | 9.5 | Vegas |
| Sep 21 '26 |  Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | +1 | 5.3 | 6.5 | BBMI |
| Sep 20 '26 |  Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun | 16.5 | 9.3 | 7.2 | -12 | 2.7 | 4.5 | BBMI |
| Sep 20 '26 |  New York Liberty @ Toronto Tempo | 13.5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | -37 | 30.3 | 23.5 | Vegas |
| Sep 20 '26 |  Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever | -6.0 | -7.5 | 1.5 | -16 | 23.5 | 22.0 | Vegas |
| Sep 20 '26 |  Portland Fire @ Los Angeles Sparks | -1.5 | -1.6 | 0.1 | +21 | 19.4 | 19.5 | BBMI |
| Sep 20 '26 |  Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces | -17.0 | -10.1 | 6.9 | +21 | 10.9 | 4.0 | Vegas |
| Sep 19 '26 |  Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings | -8.5 | -10.4 | 1.9 | +5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Sep 19 '26 |  Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream | -15.0 | -7.4 | 7.6 | +25 | 17.6 | 10.0 | Vegas |
| Sep 19 '26 | Seattle Storm @ Golden State Valkyries | -12.0 | -12.8 | 0.8 | +13 | 0.2 | 1.0 | BBMI |
| Sep 18 '26 | New York Liberty @ Minnesota Lynx | -5.5 | -4.4 | 1.1 | -12 | 16.4 | 17.5 | BBMI |
| Sep 18 '26 |  Indiana Fever @ Toronto Tempo | 15.8 | 8.6 | 7.1 | -18 | 9.4 | 2.3 | Vegas |
| Sep 18 '26 | Portland Fire @ Golden State Valkyries | -12.5 | -10.9 | 1.6 | +16 | 5.1 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Sep 17 '26 |  Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream | -17.5 | -9.4 | 8.1 | +44 | 34.6 | 26.5 | Vegas |
| Sep 17 '26 | Washington Mystics @ Chicago Sky | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.6 | -30 | 30.1 | 28.5 | Vegas |
| Sep 17 '26 |  Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings | -8.5 | -11.1 | 2.6 | +20 | 8.9 | 11.5 | BBMI |
| Sep 17 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Portland Fire | 3.3 | 0.1 | 3.2 | -3 | 2.9 | 0.3 | Vegas |
| Sep 17 '26 |  Las Vegas Aces @ Seattle Storm | 10.5 | 3.7 | 6.8 | -37 | 33.3 | 26.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 30 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Atlanta Dream | 2.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | +8 | 11.9 | 10.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 30 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm | 0.3 | -3.8 | 4.0 | -16 | 19.8 | 15.8 | Vegas |
| Aug 30 '26 |  Golden State Valkyries @ Portland Fire | 6.5 | 8.7 | 2.2 | -17 | 8.3 | 10.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 30 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings | -15.5 | -13.6 | 1.9 | +26 | 12.4 | 10.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 29 '26 | Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty | -8.5 | -7.2 | 1.3 | +19 | 11.8 | 10.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 29 '26 |  Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury | -8.5 | -3.0 | 5.5 | +32 | 29.0 | 23.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 28 '26 | Portland Fire @ Atlanta Dream | -13.0 | -7.6 | 5.4 | -18 | 25.6 | 31.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 28 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever | -17.5 | -13.7 | 3.8 | +20 | 6.3 | 2.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 28 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Las Vegas Aces | -14.5 | -8.5 | 6.0 | +20 | 11.5 | 5.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 28 '26 | Washington Mystics @ Los Angeles Sparks | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | +6 | 9.1 | 11.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 27 '26 | Golden State Valkyries @ New York Liberty | -3.0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | -19 | 18.7 | 22.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 27 '26 | Washington Mystics @ Phoenix Mercury | 5.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | -7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 26 '26 | Golden State Valkyries @ Connecticut Sun | 14.5 | 9.1 | 5.4 | -25 | 15.9 | 10.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 26 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Seattle Storm | -6.5 | -4.7 | 1.8 | +12 | 7.3 | 5.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 25 '26 | Chicago Sky @ Connecticut Sun | 7.5 | 1.2 | 6.3 | +6 | 7.2 | 13.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 25 '26 | Portland Fire @ Dallas Wings | -9.0 | -10.9 | 1.9 | +18 | 7.1 | 9.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 25 '26 | Washington Mystics @ Phoenix Mercury | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -10 | 7.9 | 8.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 24 '26 | Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx | -4.5 | -1.7 | 2.8 | -14 | 15.7 | 18.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 24 '26 | Atlanta Dream @ Los Angeles Sparks | 10.5 | 6.5 | 4.0 | -7 | 0.5 | 3.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 23 '26 | Seattle Storm @ Dallas Wings | -8.5 | -10.2 | 1.7 | +22 | 11.8 | 13.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 23 '26 | Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | -23 | 19.5 | 21.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 23 '26 | Washington Mystics @ Portland Fire | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | -5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 23 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo | 13.5 | 7.0 | 6.5 | -10 | 3.0 | 3.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 22 '26 | Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty | -2.0 | -0.9 | 1.1 | +7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 22 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Los Angeles Sparks | -5.0 | -2.9 | 2.1 | +9 | 6.1 | 4.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 22 '26 | Atlanta Dream @ Phoenix Mercury | 8.5 | 5.4 | 3.1 | -10 | 4.6 | 1.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 21 '26 | Golden State Valkyries @ Chicago Sky | 6.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | +3 | 8.1 | 9.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 21 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics | 1.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | -10 | 5.8 | 8.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 21 '26 | Portland Fire @ Toronto Tempo | 2.5 | 0.4 | 2.1 | +3 | 3.4 | 5.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 20 '26 | Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings | 3.5 | -1.6 | 5.1 | +6 | 4.4 | 9.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 20 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Las Vegas Aces | -14.5 | -8.6 | 5.9 | +23 | 14.4 | 8.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 20 '26 | Atlanta Dream @ Los Angeles Sparks | 9.0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | -36 | 30.6 | 27.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 19 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Washington Mystics | -13.5 | -7.2 | 6.3 | +11 | 3.8 | 2.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 19 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Golden State Valkyries | 2.5 | -1.4 | 3.9 | -11 | 12.4 | 8.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 18 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun | 2.0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | +8 | 8.4 | 10.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 18 '26 | Indiana Fever @ Toronto Tempo | 10.5 | 8.8 | 1.7 | -6 | 2.8 | 4.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 18 '26 | New York Liberty @ Chicago Sky | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | +7 | 9.1 | 11.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 18 '26 | Atlanta Dream @ Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 | -0.6 | 2.9 | -15 | 15.6 | 18.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 17 '26 | Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1.0 | +8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 16 '26 | Indiana Fever @ Atlanta Dream | -2.5 | 0.9 | 3.4 | -4 | 3.1 | 6.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 16 '26 | Chicago Sky @ Seattle Storm | 1.5 | -2.2 | 3.7 | -2 | 4.2 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 16 '26 | Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury | -5.5 | -2.3 | 3.2 | -3 | 5.3 | 8.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 15 '26 | New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun | 7.5 | 5.9 | 1.6 | -7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 15 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics | -6.5 | -5.0 | 1.5 | +10 | 5.0 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 15 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Las Vegas Aces | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | -5 | 2.2 | 3.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 14 '26 | Dallas Wings @ Indiana Fever | -7.5 | -4.1 | 3.4 | +11 | 6.9 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 14 '26 | Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm | -2.5 | -3.9 | 1.4 | -2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 13 '26 | Atlanta Dream @ Connecticut Sun | 10.0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | -35 | 29.8 | 25.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 13 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ New York Liberty | -8.0 | -8.6 | 0.6 | +4 | 4.6 | 4.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 13 '26 | Washington Mystics @ Las Vegas Aces | -6.0 | -3.5 | 2.5 | +7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 12 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Dallas Wings | -9.0 | -11.6 | 2.6 | +6 | 5.6 | 3.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 12 '26 | Chicago Sky @ Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 | -9.3 | 0.8 | +20 | 10.7 | 11.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 12 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Portland Fire | 13.5 | 9.0 | 4.5 | -4 | 5.0 | 9.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 11 '26 | New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever | -3.0 | -4.4 | 1.4 | +14 | 9.6 | 11.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 11 '26 | Washington Mystics @ Las Vegas Aces | -6.5 | -3.0 | 3.5 | +10 | 7.0 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 11 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks | -1.8 | -1.1 | 0.6 | -7 | 8.1 | 8.8 | BBMI |
| Aug 10 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Atlanta Dream | -15.0 | -8.5 | 6.5 | +12 | 3.5 | 3.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 10 '26 | Chicago Sky @ Seattle Storm | 2.5 | -1.3 | 3.8 | +9 | 7.7 | 11.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 9 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty | -9.5 | -0.6 | 8.9 | +40 | 39.4 | 30.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 9 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Washington Mystics | -1.8 | -3.6 | 1.8 | +20 | 16.4 | 18.3 | BBMI |
| Aug 9 '26 | Dallas Wings @ Minnesota Lynx | -7.3 | -3.0 | 4.3 | +13 | 10.0 | 5.8 | Vegas |
| Aug 9 '26 | Golden State Valkyries @ Los Angeles Sparks | 7.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | -6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 8 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Minnesota Lynx | -5.3 | -2.4 | 2.8 | +11 | 8.6 | 5.8 | Vegas |
| Aug 8 '26 | Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | -4 | 0.5 | 1.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 8 '26 | Seattle Storm @ Portland Fire | 1.5 | -1.2 | 2.7 | +7 | 5.8 | 8.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 7 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun | 5.0 | 0.9 | 4.1 | +3 | 3.9 | 8.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 7 '26 | Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics | 5.5 | 1.7 | 3.8 | +5 | 6.7 | 10.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 7 '26 | Golden State Valkyries @ Dallas Wings | 1.0 | -2.1 | 3.1 | -18 | 20.1 | 17.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 6 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever | -1.0 | -3.3 | 2.3 | -2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 6 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -10.5 | 6.0 | -7 | 17.5 | 23.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 6 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Portland Fire | -2.5 | -1.1 | 1.4 | +14 | 12.9 | 11.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 5 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream | -6.5 | -5.0 | 1.5 | +14 | 9.0 | 7.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 5 '26 | Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty | -8.0 | -8.2 | 0.2 | +6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 5 '26 | Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | +4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 5 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky | -2.5 | -3.4 | 0.9 | +7 | 3.6 | 4.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 4 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries | -11.5 | -11.8 | 0.3 | +11 | 0.8 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 3 '26 | Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -7.8 | 0.3 | +12 | 4.2 | 4.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 3 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream | -2.5 | -0.9 | 1.6 | -22 | 22.9 | 24.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 3 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky | 1.5 | -2.5 | 4.0 | -5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Aug 2 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings | -11.0 | -13.0 | 2.0 | +20 | 7.0 | 9.0 | BBMI |
| Aug 2 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries | -14.0 | -11.4 | 2.6 | +17 | 5.6 | 3.0 | Vegas |
| Aug 1 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Chicago Sky | 6.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | +1 | 4.2 | 7.5 | BBMI |
| Aug 1 '26 | New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | -2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 31 '26 | Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream | -11.5 | -7.9 | 3.6 | +9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 31 '26 | Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | +6 | 10.4 | 9.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 31 '26 | Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | -14 | 7.0 | 6.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 30 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky | -5.5 | -5.9 | 0.4 | +6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 30 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Toronto Tempo | 12.5 | 9.2 | 3.3 | -32 | 22.8 | 19.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 30 '26 | New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces | -4.5 | -1.0 | 3.5 | +5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 29 '26 | Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings | 1.5 | -4.9 | 6.4 | -1 | 5.9 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 29 '26 | Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury | 3.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | +2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 28 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics | -6.5 | -5.5 | 1.0 | +8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 28 '26 | Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -11.5 | 5.0 | +7 | 4.5 | 9.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 28 '26 | Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm | 9.0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | -10 | 6.1 | 1.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 28 '26 | Portland Fire @ Las Vegas Aces | -12.5 | -6.7 | 5.8 | +15 | 8.3 | 2.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 28 '26 | New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | -4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.5 | -4 | 5.0 | 5.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm | 9.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | -10 | 3.9 | 0.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 22 '26 | Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -6.4 | 1.1 | +1 | 5.4 | 6.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Washington Mystics | 6.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | +1 | 4.7 | 7.0 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever | -10.5 | -11.5 | 1.0 | +35 | 23.5 | 24.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 22 '26 | Dallas Wings @ Portland Fire | 7.0 | 7.9 | 0.9 | -4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 20 '26 | New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings | 4.5 | -6.4 | 10.9 | -1 | 7.4 | 3.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 20 '26 | Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo | 10.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | -26 | 20.8 | 15.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 20 '26 | Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 | -9.8 | 1.3 | -8 | 17.8 | 16.5 | Vegas |
| Jul 20 '26 | Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | -3 | 3.7 | 6.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 19 '26 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings | -10.0 | -11.5 | 1.5 | +8 | 3.5 | 2.0 | Vegas |
| Jul 19 '26 | Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream | -10.5 | -6.5 | 4.0 | +2 | 4.5 | 8.5 | BBMI |
| Jul 19 '26 | Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury | -4.5 | -2.5 | 2.0 | +9 | 6.5 | 4.5 | Vegas |
What MAE measures — and why it matters
MAE (Mean Absolute Error) is the average gap between a projected margin and the actual final margin, in points. Lower is sharper. It scores every graded game — not just the ones with big edges — so it’s a cleaner read of model skill than win rate.
The comparison here is deliberately hard: our line is locked before tip; the market’s is the closing line, sharpened by every bet that came in after us. The picks record built on these lines is on the Model Performance page.
Lines from the home team’s perspective; actual margin = home score − away score. BBMI projection published and locked before tip; Vegas line is the captured close. Live paper experiment — no wagers placed or recommended.