NCAA Baseball · Product
NCAA Baseball — Moneyline
Premium · edge ≥ 1pp · +9.4% ROI · n=835 · live
live
Methodology
Picks qualify at edge ≥ 1pp. Production gate matches the picks page (EDGE_QUALIFIER=1pp). Per Andy Q1.7, the ≥1pp open gate is deliberate live-validation instrumentation — picks across all bands are surfaced so the real profitable band derives from live data rather than from the thin backtest. Live since 2026-04-15.
All figures computed from logged pick data at build · updated with each deploy.
Per-band breakdown
Win % shows directional hit rate; ROI is on flat 1-unit stakes priced at the captured moneyline. 95% Wilson confidence intervals on the win-rate column.
| Edge band | n | W–L | Win % | 95% Wilson CI | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3pp | 60 | 28–32 | 46.7% | [34.6, 59.1] | +31.5% |
| 3–5pp | 55 | 35–20 | 63.6% | [50.4, 75.1] | +55.3% |
| 5–7pp | 115 | 61–54 | 53.0% | [44.0, 61.9] | +10.5% |
| 7–10pp | 162 | 85–77 | 52.5% | [44.8, 60.0] | +8.1% |
| 10–15pp | 218 | 107–111 | 49.1% | [42.5, 55.7] | -3.9% |
| 15–25pp | 176 | 81–95 | 46.0% | [38.8, 53.4] | -4.0% |
| 25+pp | 49 | 29–20 | 59.2% | [45.2, 71.8] | +40.7% |
| Total | 835 | 426–409 | 51.0% | [47.6, 54.4] | — |
BBMI vs Vegas
BBMI Brier
0.2301
Vegas Brier (devigged)
0.2210
✓ Tighter predictor
Brier score on home-win implied probability — lower is better-calibrated. Vegas is devigged (both moneylines normalized to sum to 1). Vegas remains better-calibrated.
n = 2,319 graded games