NFL · Totals + closing-line value · three seasons logged

Model accuracy.

Every graded pick across three NFL seasons (2023–2025), walk-forward. The model has two real edges. First, totals: an over/under product that sharpens the more it disagrees with the market — 52.1% (250–230) at a 2+ point gap (about the −110 breakeven), clearly above it at larger gaps, and 57.5% (100–74) in 2025. Second, closing-line value: its picks beat the closing spread by +1.25 points (t=5.2). Against the spread it is roughly breakeven (~52.0%) — we show that straight, too.

✓Totals 52.1% (edge ≥2) · Spread CLV +1.25 pts (t=5.2)

CLV is measured against the closing line in the offline walk-forward run (RESULTS.md); the closing price isn’t stored per game, so it can’t be recomputed on this page. Every win%, calibration and ROI figure below is computed live from the 816 logged games.

Games816

Totals · edge ≥ 2 pts52.1%250–230 · ≈ −110 breakeven, climbs with edge · 2025: 57.5% (100–74)

Spread · edge 2–5 pts53.4%164–143 · ROI +2.0% at −110 · above the 52.4% breakeven

Straight-up accuracy66.7%correct winner · 816 games · cover well-calibrated (51.4% pred / 49.4% actual)

What’s trackedThe model’s edge is totals + closing-line value. Over/under sits about at the −110 breakeven at a 2+ point disagreement (52.1%, 250–230; 57.5% in 2025) and clears it clearly at larger edges, and both the spread (+1.25 pts, t=5.2) and totals (+0.66 pts, t=3.2) beat the closing line. Raw against-the-spread win rate is ~52.0% — near breakeven, and high-edge ATS games are the model’s worst — so no ATS win-rate tier is sold. Net figures are illustrative at −110.

Totals, by edge interval

Unlike the spread, totals reward conviction: win % climbs with edge. The small-edge buckets are coin-flips, but the biggest disagreements (6+ pts) hit 60.0%. That monotonic climb is the signal the spread lacks — and why totals, not spreads, are the tracked pick product.

Total edge (points)	Tier	N	Win %	ROI −110
0–2	None	328	49.4%	-5.7%
2–4	None	248	47.2%	-9.9%
4–6	Free	122	54.9%	+4.9%
6+	Premium	110	60.0%	+14.6%

Total edge = |BBMI total − Vegas total|. Graded from the logged over/under result.

Per-total log · n=815

Date ▼	Away ↕	Home ↕	Vegas O/U ↕	BBMI ↕	Edge ↕	Lean	Actual	Outcome
2026-01-01	Cardinals	Rams	44.5	49.1	4.6	Over	57	hit
2026-01-01	Ravens	Steelers	41.5	48.6	7.1	Over	50	hit
2026-01-01	Panthers	Buccaneers	39.5	47.0	7.5	Over	30	miss
2026-01-01	Browns	Bengals	44.5	42.9	1.6	Under	38	hit
2026-01-01	Cowboys	Giants	49.5	51.5	2.0	Over	51	hit
2026-01-01	Lions	Bears	35.5	49.8	14.3	Over	35	miss
2026-01-01	Packers	Vikings	37.5	39.2	1.7	Over	19	miss
2026-01-01	Colts	Texans	38.5	42.8	4.3	Over	68	hit
2026-01-01	Chiefs	Raiders	25.5	40.8	15.3	Over	26	hit
2026-01-01	Chargers	Broncos	30.5	41.1	10.6	Over	22	miss
2026-01-01	Dolphins	Patriots	47.5	49.2	1.7	Over	48	hit
2026-01-01	Saints	Falcons	43.5	42.3	1.2	Under	36	hit
2026-01-01	Jets	Bills	37.5	45.4	7.9	Over	43	hit
2026-01-01	Seahawks	49ers	47.5	50.3	2.8	Over	16	miss
2026-01-01	Titans	Jaguars	47.5	44.3	3.2	Under	48	miss
2026-01-01	Commanders	Eagles	36.5	43.6	7.1	Over	41	hit
2025-12-25	Cardinals	Bengals	53.5	51.5	2.0	Under	51	hit
2025-12-25	Ravens	Packers	38.5	44.6	6.1	Over	65	hit
2025-12-25	Bears	49ers	51.5	52.9	1.4	Over	80	hit
2025-12-25	Cowboys	Commanders	50.5	53.8	3.3	Over	53	hit
2025-12-25	Broncos	Chiefs	38.5	43.4	4.9	Over	33	miss
2025-12-25	Lions	Vikings	37.5	42.4	4.9	Over	33	miss
2025-12-25	Texans	Chargers	40.5	42.0	1.5	Over	36	miss
2025-12-25	Jaguars	Colts	48.5	45.9	2.6	Under	40	hit
2025-12-25	Rams	Falcons	48.5	47.5	1.0	Under	51	miss
2025-12-25	Patriots	Jets	42.5	47.6	5.1	Over	52	hit
2025-12-25	Saints	Titans	39.5	41.2	1.7	Over	60	hit
2025-12-25	Giants	Raiders	41.5	43.9	2.4	Over	44	hit
2025-12-25	Eagles	Bills	35.5	47.2	11.7	Over	25	miss
2025-12-25	Steelers	Browns	34.5	39.9	5.4	Over	19	miss
2025-12-25	Seahawks	Panthers	42.5	47.2	4.7	Over	37	miss
2025-12-25	Buccaneers	Dolphins	44.5	44.9	0.4	Over	37	miss
2025-12-18	Falcons	Cardinals	55.5	46.3	9.2	Under	45	hit
2025-12-18	Bills	Browns	41.5	42.3	0.8	Over	43	hit
2025-12-18	Bengals	Dolphins	48.5	47.3	1.2	Under	66	miss
2025-12-18	Packers	Bears	45.5	49.7	4.2	Over	38	miss
2025-12-18	Jaguars	Broncos	54.5	43.9	10.6	Under	54	hit
2025-12-18	Chiefs	Titans	37.5	43.7	6.2	Over	35	miss
2025-12-18	Chargers	Cowboys	49.5	49.5	0.0	Over	51	hit
2025-12-18	Rams	Seahawks	42.5	45.7	3.2	Over	75	hit
2025-12-18	Raiders	Texans	37.5	42.5	5.0	Over	44	hit
2025-12-18	Vikings	Giants	43.5	43.4	0.1	Under	29	hit
2025-12-18	Patriots	Ravens	48.5	46.0	2.5	Under	52	miss
2025-12-18	Jets	Saints	40.5	41.5	1.0	Over	35	miss
2025-12-18	Eagles	Commanders	41.5	47.4	5.9	Over	47	hit
2025-12-18	Steelers	Lions	44.5	49.5	5.0	Over	53	hit
2025-12-18	49ers	Colts	46.5	50.6	4.1	Over	75	hit
2025-12-18	Buccaneers	Panthers	45.5	46.8	1.3	Over	43	miss
2025-12-11	Cardinals	Texans	42.5	42.8	0.3	Over	60	hit
2025-12-11	Falcons	Buccaneers	43.5	45.0	1.5	Over	57	hit
2025-12-11	Ravens	Bengals	51.5	52.4	0.9	Over	24	miss
2025-12-11	Bills	Patriots	48.5	50.9	2.4	Over	66	hit
2025-12-11	Panthers	Saints	37.5	42.6	5.1	Over	37	miss
2025-12-11	Browns	Bears	38.5	40.9	2.4	Over	34	miss
2025-12-11	Lions	Rams	68.5	49.1	19.4	Under	75	miss
2025-12-11	Packers	Broncos	50.5	48.4	2.1	Under	60	miss
2025-12-11	Colts	Seahawks	40.5	45.5	5.0	Over	34	miss
2025-12-11	Chargers	Chiefs	41.5	46.9	5.4	Over	29	miss
2025-12-11	Raiders	Eagles	38.5	41.7	3.2	Over	31	miss
2025-12-11	Dolphins	Steelers	42.5	47.2	4.7	Over	43	hit
2025-12-11	Vikings	Cowboys	47.5	45.3	2.2	Under	60	miss
2025-12-11	Jets	Jaguars	41.5	43.6	2.1	Over	68	hit
2025-12-11	Titans	49ers	48.5	49.8	1.3	Over	61	hit
2025-12-11	Commanders	Giants	46.5	51.7	5.2	Over	50	hit
2025-12-04	Bears	Packers	37.5	50.0	12.5	Over	49	hit
2025-12-04	Bengals	Bills	52.5	53.4	0.9	Over	73	hit
2025-12-04	Cowboys	Lions	55.5	52.9	2.6	Under	74	miss
2025-12-04	Broncos	Raiders	38.5	41.6	3.1	Over	41	hit
2025-12-04	Texans	Chiefs	41.5	46.1	4.6	Over	30	miss
2025-12-04	Colts	Jaguars	46.5	43.6	2.9	Under	55	miss
2025-12-04	Rams	Cardinals	47.5	45.3	2.2	Under	62	miss
2025-12-04	Dolphins	Jets	41.5	45.9	4.4	Over	44	hit
2025-12-04	Saints	Buccaneers	41.5	42.6	1.1	Over	44	hit
2025-12-04	Eagles	Chargers	41.5	44.0	2.5	Over	41	miss
2025-12-04	Steelers	Ravens	42.5	47.1	4.6	Over	49	hit
2025-12-04	Seahawks	Falcons	44.5	45.5	1.0	Over	46	hit
2025-12-04	Titans	Browns	33.5	37.6	4.1	Over	60	hit
2025-12-04	Commanders	Vikings	43.5	44.3	0.8	Over	31	miss
2025-11-27	Cardinals	Buccaneers	44.5	45.2	0.7	Over	37	miss
2025-11-27	Falcons	Jets	39.5	45.1	5.6	Over	51	hit
2025-11-27	Bills	Steelers	30.5	49.1	18.6	Over	33	hit
2025-11-27	Bears	Eagles	39.5	46.5	7.0	Over	39	miss
2025-11-27	Bengals	Ravens	51.5	54.2	2.7	Over	46	miss
2025-11-27	Broncos	Commanders	43.5	46.9	3.4	Over	53	hit
2025-11-27	Packers	Lions	48.5	49.7	1.2	Over	55	hit
2025-11-27	Texans	Colts	44.5	45.9	1.4	Over	36	miss
2025-11-27	Jaguars	Titans	41.5	43.9	2.4	Over	28	miss
2025-11-27	Chiefs	Cowboys	59.5	52.6	6.9	Under	59	hit
2025-11-27	Rams	Panthers	44.5	46.1	1.6	Over	59	hit
2025-11-27	Raiders	Chargers	33.5	42.3	8.8	Over	45	hit
2025-11-27	Vikings	Seahawks	41.5	42.7	1.2	Over	26	miss
2025-11-27	Saints	Dolphins	42.5	44.4	1.9	Over	38	miss
2025-11-27	Giants	Patriots	46.5	49.8	3.3	Over	48	hit
2025-11-27	49ers	Browns	35.5	43.1	7.6	Over	34	miss
2025-11-20	Falcons	Saints	42.5	43.0	0.5	Over	34	miss
2025-11-20	Bills	Texans	44.5	44.9	0.4	Over	42	miss
2025-11-20	Panthers	49ers	49.5	51.7	2.2	Over	29	miss
2025-11-20	Browns	Raiders	30.5	36.7	6.2	Over	34	hit
2025-11-20	Colts	Chiefs	50.5	52.4	1.9	Over	43	miss
2025-11-20	Jaguars	Cardinals	44.5	44.9	0.4	Over	51	hit
2025-11-20	Vikings	Packers	41.5	45.0	3.5	Over	29	miss
2025-11-20	Patriots	Bengals	49.5	53.2	3.7	Over	46	miss
2025-11-20	Giants	Lions	50.5	49.2	1.3	Under	61	miss
2025-11-20	Jets	Ravens	44.5	49.6	5.1	Over	33	miss
2025-11-20	Eagles	Cowboys	52.5	49.8	2.7	Under	45	hit
2025-11-20	Steelers	Bears	45.5	46.1	0.6	Over	59	hit
2025-11-20	Seahawks	Titans	40.5	45.0	4.5	Over	54	hit
2025-11-20	Buccaneers	Rams	49.5	46.6	2.9	Under	41	hit
2025-11-13	Ravens	Browns	45.5	43.4	2.1	Under	39	hit
2025-11-13	Panthers	Falcons	41.5	45.2	3.7	Over	57	hit
2025-11-13	Bears	Vikings	48.5	43.1	5.4	Under	36	hit
2025-11-13	Bengals	Steelers	48.5	51.4	2.9	Over	46	miss
2025-11-13	Cowboys	Raiders	49.5	47.8	1.7	Under	49	hit
2025-11-13	Lions	Eagles	46.5	48.4	1.9	Over	25	miss
2025-11-13	Packers	Giants	42.5	48.5	6.0	Over	47	hit
2025-11-13	Texans	Titans	37.5	40.9	3.4	Over	29	miss
2025-11-13	Chiefs	Broncos	34.5	46.5	12.0	Over	41	hit
2025-11-13	Chargers	Jaguars	43.5	46.5	3.0	Over	41	miss
2025-11-13	Jets	Patriots	43.5	49.3	5.8	Over	41	miss
2025-11-13	Seahawks	Rams	43.5	47.6	4.1	Over	40	miss
2025-11-13	49ers	Cardinals	58.5	49.7	8.8	Under	63	miss
2025-11-13	Buccaneers	Bills	46.5	48.9	2.4	Over	76	hit
2025-11-13	Commanders	Dolphins	47.5	50.8	3.3	Over	29	miss
2025-11-06	Cardinals	Seahawks	45.5	47.2	1.7	Over	66	hit
2025-11-06	Falcons	Colts	48.5	47.9	0.6	Under	56	miss
2025-11-06	Ravens	Vikings	48.5	46.0	2.5	Under	46	hit
2025-11-06	Bills	Dolphins	50.5	50.8	0.3	Over	43	miss
2025-11-06	Browns	Jets	37.5	41.5	4.0	Over	47	hit
2025-11-06	Lions	Commanders	49.5	48.4	1.1	Under	66	miss
2025-11-06	Jaguars	Texans	37.5	42.3	4.8	Over	65	hit
2025-11-06	Rams	49ers	52.5	48.3	4.2	Under	68	miss
2025-11-06	Raiders	Broncos	42.5	44.0	1.5	Over	17	miss
2025-11-06	Patriots	Buccaneers	48.5	48.1	0.4	Under	51	miss
2025-11-06	Saints	Panthers	38.5	43.5	5.0	Over	24	miss
2025-11-06	Giants	Bears	46.5	48.1	1.6	Over	44	miss
2025-11-06	Eagles	Packers	45.5	49.6	4.1	Over	17	miss
2025-11-06	Steelers	Chargers	45.5	47.9	2.4	Over	35	miss
2025-10-30	Cardinals	Cowboys	53.5	50.2	3.3	Under	44	hit
2025-10-30	Falcons	Patriots	45.5	47.1	1.6	Over	47	hit
2025-10-30	Ravens	Dolphins	51.5	52.1	0.6	Over	34	miss
2025-10-30	Panthers	Packers	43.5	49.3	5.8	Over	29	miss
2025-10-30	Bears	Bengals	51.5	48.6	2.9	Under	89	miss
2025-10-30	Broncos	Texans	40.5	41.0	0.5	Over	33	miss
2025-10-30	Colts	Steelers	50.5	51.5	1.0	Over	47	miss
2025-10-30	Jaguars	Raiders	34.5	44.1	9.6	Over	59	hit
2025-10-30	Chiefs	Bills	60.5	50.2	10.3	Under	49	hit
2025-10-30	Chargers	Titans	43.5	44.8	1.3	Over	47	hit
2025-10-30	Vikings	Lions	48.5	44.0	4.5	Under	51	miss
2025-10-30	Saints	Rams	43.5	43.1	0.4	Under	44	miss
2025-10-30	Seahawks	Commanders	48.5	48.6	0.1	Over	52	hit
2025-10-30	49ers	Giants	48.5	46.6	1.9	Under	58	miss
2025-10-23	Bills	Panthers	46.5	49.6	3.1	Over	49	hit
2025-10-23	Bears	Ravens	44.5	45.7	1.2	Over	46	hit
2025-10-23	Browns	Patriots	40.5	43.2	2.7	Over	45	hit
2025-10-23	Cowboys	Broncos	50.5	49.5	1.0	Under	68	miss
2025-10-23	Packers	Steelers	45.5	50.0	4.5	Over	60	hit
2025-10-23	Dolphins	Falcons	44.5	48.0	3.5	Over	44	miss
2025-10-23	Vikings	Chargers	44.5	45.3	0.8	Over	47	hit
2025-10-23	Giants	Eagles	43.5	45.6	2.1	Over	58	hit
2025-10-23	Jets	Bengals	44.5	46.7	2.2	Over	77	hit
2025-10-23	49ers	Texans	42.5	43.3	0.8	Over	41	miss
2025-10-23	Buccaneers	Saints	46.5	45.6	0.9	Under	26	hit
2025-10-23	Titans	Colts	47.5	47.8	0.3	Over	52	hit
2025-10-23	Commanders	Chiefs	48.5	49.3	0.8	Over	35	miss
2025-10-16	Falcons	49ers	46.5	45.1	1.4	Under	30	hit
2025-10-16	Panthers	Jets	41.5	46.7	5.2	Over	19	miss
2025-10-16	Packers	Cardinals	52.5	47.6	4.9	Under	50	hit
2025-10-16	Texans	Seahawks	41.5	45.9	4.4	Over	46	hit
2025-10-16	Colts	Chargers	69.5	48.1	21.4	Under	62	hit
2025-10-16	Rams	Jaguars	44.5	46.4	1.9	Over	42	miss
2025-10-16	Raiders	Chiefs	45.5	47.5	2.0	Over	31	miss
2025-10-16	Dolphins	Browns	35.5	46.1	10.6	Over	37	hit
2025-10-16	Patriots	Titans	42.5	45.9	3.4	Over	44	hit
2025-10-16	Saints	Bears	45.5	44.8	0.7	Under	40	hit
2025-10-16	Giants	Broncos	42.5	43.3	0.8	Over	65	hit
2025-10-16	Eagles	Vikings	43.5	43.9	0.4	Over	50	hit
2025-10-16	Steelers	Bengals	45.5	47.1	1.6	Over	64	hit
2025-10-16	Buccaneers	Lions	54.5	51.2	3.3	Under	33	hit
2025-10-16	Commanders	Cowboys	53.5	53.3	0.2	Under	66	miss
2025-10-09	Cardinals	Colts	47.5	46.6	0.9	Under	58	miss
2025-10-09	Bills	Falcons	49.5	47.8	1.7	Under	38	hit
2025-10-09	Bears	Commanders	49.5	48.1	1.4	Under	49	hit
2025-10-09	Bengals	Packers	41.5	47.2	5.7	Over	45	hit
2025-10-09	Browns	Steelers	37.5	43.8	6.3	Over	32	miss
2025-10-09	Cowboys	Panthers	48.5	51.1	2.6	Over	57	hit
2025-10-09	Broncos	Jets	43.5	46.5	3.0	Over	24	miss
2025-10-09	Lions	Chiefs	51.5	49.7	1.8	Under	47	hit
2025-10-09	Chargers	Dolphins	44.5	48.5	4.0	Over	56	hit
2025-10-09	Rams	Ravens	44.5	47.4	2.9	Over	20	miss
2025-10-09	Patriots	Saints	45.5	46.8	1.3	Over	44	miss
2025-10-09	Eagles	Giants	40.5	43.4	2.9	Over	51	hit
2025-10-09	Seahawks	Jaguars	47.5	47.8	0.3	Over	32	miss
2025-10-09	49ers	Buccaneers	52.5	48.1	4.4	Under	49	hit
2025-10-09	Titans	Raiders	30.5	44.0	13.5	Over	30	miss
2025-10-02	Cowboys	Jets	47.5	49.2	1.7	Over	59	hit
2025-10-02	Broncos	Eagles	43.5	44.8	1.3	Over	38	miss
2025-10-02	Lions	Bengals	52.5	46.7	5.8	Under	61	miss
2025-10-02	Texans	Ravens	40.5	44.1	3.6	Over	54	hit
2025-10-02	Chiefs	Jaguars	45.5	48.2	2.7	Over	59	hit
2025-10-02	Raiders	Colts	47.5	47.0	0.5	Under	46	hit
2025-10-02	Dolphins	Panthers	45.5	47.9	2.4	Over	51	hit
2025-10-02	Vikings	Browns	36.5	40.3	3.8	Over	38	hit
2025-10-02	Patriots	Bills	49.5	50.1	0.6	Over	43	miss
2025-10-02	Giants	Saints	42.5	43.0	0.5	Over	40	miss
2025-10-02	49ers	Rams	43.5	45.8	2.3	Over	49	hit
2025-10-02	Buccaneers	Seahawks	73.5	46.4	27.1	Under	73	hit
2025-10-02	Titans	Cardinals	39.5	45.6	6.1	Over	43	hit
2025-10-02	Commanders	Chargers	33.5	47.7	14.2	Over	37	hit
2025-09-25	Ravens	Chiefs	48.5	49.5	1.0	Over	57	hit
2025-09-25	Panthers	Patriots	43.5	46.7	3.2	Over	55	hit
2025-09-25	Bears	Raiders	48.5	45.9	2.6	Under	49	miss
2025-09-25	Bengals	Broncos	44.5	44.1	0.4	Under	31	hit
2025-09-25	Browns	Lions	44.5	47.5	3.0	Over	44	miss
2025-09-25	Packers	Cowboys	47.5	47.9	0.4	Over	80	hit
2025-09-25	Colts	Rams	47.5	48.6	1.1	Over	47	miss
2025-09-25	Jaguars	49ers	52.5	48.9	3.6	Under	47	hit
2025-09-25	Chargers	Giants	43.5	44.6	1.1	Over	39	miss
2025-09-25	Vikings	Steelers	41.5	43.6	2.1	Over	45	hit
2025-09-25	Saints	Bills	48.5	47.9	0.6	Under	50	miss
2025-09-25	Jets	Dolphins	44.5	47.4	2.9	Over	48	hit
2025-09-25	Eagles	Buccaneers	44.5	47.4	2.9	Over	56	hit
2025-09-25	Seahawks	Cardinals	43.5	47.1	3.6	Over	43	miss
2025-09-25	Titans	Texans	39.5	43.6	4.1	Over	26	miss
2025-09-25	Commanders	Falcons	43.5	45.9	2.4	Over	61	hit
2025-09-18	Cardinals	49ers	32.5	46.5	14.0	Over	31	miss
2025-09-18	Falcons	Panthers	44.5	46.6	2.1	Over	30	miss
2025-09-18	Bengals	Vikings	41.5	43.3	1.8	Over	58	hit
2025-09-18	Cowboys	Bears	51.5	47.5	4.0	Under	45	hit
2025-09-18	Broncos	Chargers	39.5	46.4	6.9	Over	43	hit
2025-09-18	Lions	Ravens	54.5	49.3	5.2	Under	68	miss
2025-09-18	Packers	Browns	41.5	46.1	4.6	Over	23	miss
2025-09-18	Texans	Jaguars	43.5	46.3	2.8	Over	27	miss
2025-09-18	Colts	Titans	43.5	45.6	2.1	Over	61	hit
2025-09-18	Chiefs	Giants	44.5	48.4	3.9	Over	31	miss
2025-09-18	Rams	Eagles	44.5	47.3	2.8	Over	59	hit
2025-09-18	Raiders	Commanders	43.5	45.8	2.3	Over	65	hit
2025-09-18	Dolphins	Bills	49.5	50.0	0.5	Over	52	hit
2025-09-18	Saints	Seahawks	41.5	44.9	3.4	Over	57	hit
2025-09-18	Jets	Buccaneers	43.5	47.1	3.6	Over	56	hit
2025-09-18	Steelers	Patriots	44.5	47.6	3.1	Over	35	miss
2025-09-11	Falcons	Vikings	44.5	43.6	0.9	Under	28	hit
2025-09-11	Bills	Jets	47.5	47.1	0.4	Under	40	hit
2025-09-11	Panthers	Cardinals	42.5	47.6	5.1	Over	49	hit
2025-09-11	Bears	Lions	46.5	46.9	0.4	Over	73	hit
2025-09-11	Browns	Ravens	45.5	48.3	2.8	Over	58	hit
2025-09-11	Broncos	Colts	59.5	46.3	13.2	Under	57	hit
2025-09-11	Jaguars	Bengals	49.5	45.6	3.9	Under	58	miss
2025-09-11	Chargers	Raiders	46.5	47.8	1.3	Over	29	miss
2025-09-11	Rams	Titans	41.5	45.5	4.0	Over	52	hit
2025-09-11	Patriots	Dolphins	43.5	48.2	4.7	Over	60	hit
2025-09-11	Giants	Cowboys	44.5	48.1	3.6	Over	77	hit
2025-09-11	Eagles	Chiefs	33.5	47.9	14.4	Over	37	hit
2025-09-11	Seahawks	Steelers	40.5	46.8	6.3	Over	48	hit
2025-09-11	49ers	Saints	40.5	44.0	3.5	Over	47	hit
2025-09-11	Buccaneers	Texans	42.5	46.9	4.4	Over	39	miss
2025-09-11	Commanders	Packers	48.5	47.5	1.0	Under	45	hit
2025-09-04	Cardinals	Saints	43.5	45.2	1.7	Over	33	miss
2025-09-04	Ravens	Bills	50.5	46.9	3.6	Under	81	miss
2025-09-04	Panthers	Jaguars	46.5	47.1	0.6	Over	36	miss
2025-09-04	Bengals	Browns	48.5	47.3	1.2	Under	33	hit
2025-09-04	Cowboys	Eagles	47.5	48.1	0.6	Over	44	miss
2025-09-04	Lions	Packers	47.5	47.1	0.4	Under	40	hit
2025-09-04	Texans	Rams	28.5	47.2	18.7	Over	23	miss
2025-09-04	Chiefs	Chargers	47.5	46.9	0.6	Under	48	miss
2025-09-04	Raiders	Patriots	44.5	47.7	3.2	Over	33	miss
2025-09-04	Dolphins	Colts	47.5	48.0	0.5	Over	41	miss
2025-09-04	Vikings	Bears	43.5	43.7	0.2	Over	51	hit
2025-09-04	Giants	Commanders	45.5	47.9	2.4	Over	27	miss
2025-09-04	Steelers	Jets	37.5	46.6	9.1	Over	66	hit
2025-09-04	49ers	Seahawks	29.5	47.1	17.6	Over	30	hit
2025-09-04	Buccaneers	Falcons	47.5	44.8	2.7	Under	43	hit
2025-09-04	Titans	Broncos	34.5	45.5	11.0	Over	32	miss
2025-01-02	Bills	Patriots	36.5	45.7	9.2	Over	39	hit
2025-01-02	Panthers	Falcons	48.5	46.5	2.0	Under	82	miss
2025-01-02	Bears	Packers	41.5	42.5	1.0	Over	46	hit
2025-01-02	Bengals	Steelers	48.5	49.1	0.6	Over	36	miss
2025-01-02	Browns	Ravens	44.5	47.7	3.2	Over	45	hit
2025-01-02	Texans	Titans	36.5	38.2	1.7	Over	37	hit
2025-01-02	Jaguars	Colts	45.5	48.6	3.1	Over	49	hit
2025-01-02	Chiefs	Broncos	40.5	42.3	1.8	Over	38	miss
2025-01-02	Chargers	Raiders	47.5	41.3	6.2	Under	54	miss
2025-01-02	Dolphins	Jets	40.5	42.3	1.8	Over	52	hit
2025-01-02	Vikings	Lions	56.5	48.6	7.9	Under	40	hit
2025-01-02	Saints	Buccaneers	45.5	46.4	0.9	Over	46	hit
2025-01-02	Giants	Eagles	36.5	41.7	5.2	Over	33	miss
2025-01-02	Seahawks	Rams	49.5	44.5	5.0	Under	55	miss
2025-01-02	49ers	Cardinals	52.5	47.5	5.0	Under	71	miss
2025-01-02	Commanders	Cowboys	43.5	44.6	1.1	Over	42	miss
2024-12-26	Cardinals	Rams	48	49.7	1.7	Over	22	miss
2024-12-26	Falcons	Commanders	46.5	48.7	2.2	Over	54	hit
2024-12-26	Ravens	Texans	45.5	47.3	1.8	Over	33	miss
2024-12-26	Panthers	Buccaneers	48	49.6	1.6	Over	62	hit
2024-12-26	Cowboys	Eagles	38	42.4	4.4	Over	48	hit
2024-12-26	Broncos	Bengals	34.5	45.7	11.2	Over	54	hit
2024-12-26	Lions	49ers	50.5	49.6	0.9	Under	74	miss
2024-12-26	Packers	Vikings	40.5	45.7	5.2	Over	52	hit
2024-12-26	Colts	Giants	40	41.5	1.5	Over	78	hit
2024-12-26	Chiefs	Steelers	44	45.8	1.8	Over	39	miss
2024-12-26	Chargers	Patriots	42.5	45.0	2.5	Over	47	hit
2024-12-26	Raiders	Saints	37.5	39.2	1.7	Over	35	miss
2024-12-26	Dolphins	Browns	29.5	37.8	8.3	Over	23	miss
2024-12-26	Jets	Bills	46	51.3	5.3	Over	54	hit
2024-12-26	Seahawks	Bears	41.5	43.0	1.5	Over	9	miss
2024-12-26	Titans	Jaguars	39	46.1	7.1	Over	33	miss
2024-12-19	Cardinals	Panthers	47	48.6	1.6	Over	66	hit
2024-12-19	Browns	Bengals	45.5	44.2	1.3	Under	30	hit
2024-12-19	Broncos	Chargers	41.5	40.8	0.7	Under	61	miss
2024-12-19	Lions	Bears	48	46.4	1.6	Under	51	miss
2024-12-19	Texans	Chiefs	42.5	43.6	1.1	Over	46	hit
2024-12-19	Jaguars	Raiders	43.5	45.3	1.8	Over	33	miss
2024-12-19	Rams	Jets	46.5	47.4	0.9	Over	28	miss
2024-12-19	Vikings	Seahawks	53.5	43.2	10.3	Under	51	hit
2024-12-19	Patriots	Bills	46.5	51.8	5.3	Over	45	miss
2024-12-19	Saints	Packers	44	45.6	1.6	Over	34	miss
2024-12-19	Giants	Falcons	43	42.1	0.9	Under	41	hit
2024-12-19	Eagles	Commanders	45.5	47.7	2.2	Over	69	hit
2024-12-19	Steelers	Ravens	47.5	50.8	3.3	Over	51	hit
2024-12-19	49ers	Dolphins	44.5	46.7	2.2	Over	46	hit
2024-12-19	Buccaneers	Cowboys	47.5	45.6	1.9	Under	50	miss
2024-12-19	Titans	Colts	43	40.8	2.2	Under	68	miss
2024-12-12	Falcons	Raiders	44.5	45.2	0.7	Over	24	miss
2024-12-12	Ravens	Giants	42.5	48.1	5.6	Over	49	hit
2024-12-12	Bills	Lions	63.5	50.8	12.7	Under	90	miss
2024-12-12	Bears	Vikings	43.5	42.6	0.9	Under	42	hit
2024-12-12	Bengals	Titans	46.5	45.8	0.7	Under	64	miss
2024-12-12	Cowboys	Panthers	43	43.0	0.0	Under	44	miss
2024-12-12	Packers	Seahawks	47.5	46.5	1.0	Under	43	hit
2024-12-12	Colts	Broncos	41.5	42.1	0.6	Over	44	hit
2024-12-12	Chiefs	Browns	42.5	45.2	2.7	Over	28	miss
2024-12-12	Rams	49ers	48.5	50.1	1.6	Over	18	miss
2024-12-12	Dolphins	Texans	46.5	44.0	2.5	Under	32	hit
2024-12-12	Patriots	Cardinals	37.5	46.6	9.1	Over	47	hit
2024-12-12	Jets	Jaguars	40.5	47.5	7.0	Over	57	hit
2024-12-12	Steelers	Eagles	50.5	45.1	5.4	Under	40	hit
2024-12-12	Buccaneers	Chargers	53.5	46.4	7.1	Under	57	miss
2024-12-12	Commanders	Saints	43.5	46.2	2.7	Over	39	miss
2024-12-05	Falcons	Vikings	45.5	44.8	0.7	Under	63	miss
2024-12-05	Bills	Rams	64.5	49.6	14.9	Under	86	miss
2024-12-05	Panthers	Eagles	45.5	46.5	1.0	Over	38	miss
2024-12-05	Bears	49ers	43.5	44.8	1.3	Over	51	hit
2024-12-05	Bengals	Cowboys	50.5	46.1	4.4	Under	47	hit
2024-12-05	Browns	Steelers	43.5	43.2	0.3	Under	41	hit
2024-12-05	Packers	Lions	52.5	48.7	3.8	Under	65	miss
2024-12-05	Jaguars	Titans	40	45.3	5.3	Over	16	miss
2024-12-05	Chargers	Chiefs	42.5	45.7	3.2	Over	36	miss
2024-12-05	Raiders	Buccaneers	46.5	45.8	0.7	Under	41	hit
2024-12-05	Saints	Giants	41	43.3	2.3	Over	25	miss
2024-12-05	Jets	Dolphins	44.5	44.3	0.2	Under	58	miss
2024-12-05	Seahawks	Cardinals	54.5	46.5	8.0	Under	48	hit
2024-11-28	Cardinals	Vikings	45	45.0	0.0	Over	45	—
2024-11-28	Bears	Lions	47.5	44.9	2.6	Under	43	hit
2024-11-28	Browns	Broncos	41.5	40.2	1.3	Under	73	miss
2024-11-28	Texans	Jaguars	44	44.9	0.9	Over	43	miss
2024-11-28	Colts	Patriots	42.5	43.1	0.6	Over	49	hit
2024-11-28	Chargers	Falcons	48	47.0	1.0	Under	30	hit
2024-11-28	Rams	Saints	29.5	47.4	17.9	Over	35	hit
2024-11-28	Raiders	Chiefs	39.5	45.4	5.9	Over	36	miss
2024-11-28	Dolphins	Packers	47	46.6	0.4	Under	47	—
2024-11-28	Giants	Cowboys	44.5	40.9	3.6	Under	47	miss
2024-11-28	Eagles	Ravens	50.5	50.3	0.2	Under	43	hit
2024-11-28	Steelers	Bengals	47	47.0	0.0	Under	82	miss
2024-11-28	Seahawks	Jets	41.5	44.3	2.8	Over	47	hit
2024-11-28	49ers	Bills	44.5	49.8	5.3	Over	45	hit
2024-11-28	Buccaneers	Panthers	46.5	48.0	1.5	Over	49	hit
2024-11-28	Titans	Commanders	44.5	46.4	1.9	Over	61	hit
2024-11-21	Cardinals	Seahawks	32.5	48.3	15.8	Over	22	miss
2024-11-21	Ravens	Chargers	51	49.1	1.9	Under	53	miss
2024-11-21	Cowboys	Commanders	45.5	47.2	1.7	Over	60	hit
2024-11-21	Broncos	Raiders	41.5	40.8	0.7	Under	48	miss
2024-11-21	Lions	Colts	50.5	45.0	5.5	Under	30	hit
2024-11-21	Chiefs	Panthers	43	45.8	2.8	Over	57	hit
2024-11-21	Vikings	Bears	39	40.3	1.3	Over	57	hit
2024-11-21	Patriots	Dolphins	46.5	44.9	1.6	Under	49	miss
2024-11-21	Eagles	Rams	49	45.4	3.6	Under	57	miss
2024-11-21	Steelers	Browns	36.5	41.5	5.0	Over	43	hit
2024-11-21	49ers	Packers	44.5	45.0	0.5	Over	48	hit
2024-11-21	Buccaneers	Giants	41	45.4	4.4	Over	37	miss
2024-11-21	Titans	Texans	40.5	41.2	0.7	Over	59	hit
2024-11-14	Falcons	Broncos	45	44.0	1.0	Under	44	hit
2024-11-14	Ravens	Steelers	48.5	50.3	1.8	Over	34	miss
2024-11-14	Bengals	Chargers	48	47.7	0.3	Under	61	miss
2024-11-14	Browns	Saints	44	41.8	2.2	Under	49	miss
2024-11-14	Packers	Bears	40.5	42.9	2.4	Over	39	miss
2024-11-14	Texans	Cowboys	41.5	41.1	0.4	Under	44	miss
2024-11-14	Colts	Jets	43.5	42.7	0.8	Under	55	miss
2024-11-14	Jaguars	Lions	47	48.0	1.0	Over	58	hit
2024-11-14	Chiefs	Bills	54.5	48.4	6.1	Under	51	hit
2024-11-14	Rams	Patriots	43	43.2	0.2	Over	50	hit
2024-11-14	Raiders	Dolphins	44	42.1	1.9	Under	53	miss
2024-11-14	Vikings	Titans	39.5	40.9	1.4	Over	36	miss
2024-11-14	Seahawks	49ers	36.5	47.9	11.4	Over	37	hit
2024-11-14	Commanders	Eagles	49.5	49.3	0.2	Under	44	hit
2024-11-07	Falcons	Saints	46	47.0	1.0	Over	37	miss
2024-11-07	Bills	Colts	46.5	48.0	1.5	Over	50	hit
2024-11-07	Bengals	Ravens	52.5	52.5	0.0	Over	69	hit
2024-11-07	Broncos	Chiefs	42	42.8	0.8	Over	30	miss
2024-11-07	Lions	Texans	49.5	44.7	4.8	Under	49	hit
2024-11-07	Dolphins	Rams	48.5	45.8	2.7	Under	38	hit
2024-11-07	Vikings	Jaguars	43	44.8	1.8	Over	19	miss
2024-11-07	Patriots	Bears	38.5	40.7	2.2	Over	22	miss
2024-11-07	Giants	Panthers	40.5	43.0	2.5	Over	37	miss
2024-11-07	Jets	Cardinals	52.5	46.1	6.4	Under	37	hit
2024-11-07	Eagles	Cowboys	40.5	45.8	5.3	Over	40	miss
2024-11-07	Steelers	Commanders	45	49.5	4.5	Over	55	hit
2024-11-07	49ers	Buccaneers	50.5	48.3	2.2	Under	43	hit
2024-11-07	Titans	Chargers	39.5	41.5	2.0	Over	44	hit
2024-10-31	Bears	Cardinals	50.5	45.3	5.2	Under	38	hit
2024-10-31	Cowboys	Falcons	52	48.4	3.6	Under	48	hit
2024-10-31	Broncos	Ravens	46	46.2	0.2	Over	51	hit
2024-10-31	Lions	Packers	42.5	46.4	3.9	Over	38	miss
2024-10-31	Texans	Jets	43	42.5	0.5	Under	34	hit
2024-10-31	Colts	Vikings	46.5	44.5	2.0	Under	34	hit
2024-10-31	Jaguars	Eagles	46	50.5	4.5	Over	51	hit
2024-10-31	Chargers	Browns	42.5	41.5	1.0	Under	37	hit
2024-10-31	Rams	Seahawks	39.5	46.8	7.3	Over	46	hit
2024-10-31	Raiders	Bengals	45.5	45.1	0.4	Under	65	miss
2024-10-31	Dolphins	Bills	49.5	47.5	2.0	Under	57	miss
2024-10-31	Patriots	Titans	39	40.5	1.5	Over	37	miss
2024-10-31	Saints	Panthers	43.5	44.2	0.7	Over	45	hit
2024-10-31	Buccaneers	Chiefs	45.5	47.0	1.5	Over	54	hit
2024-10-31	Commanders	Giants	44	46.9	2.9	Over	49	hit
2024-10-24	Cardinals	Dolphins	46	45.7	0.3	Under	55	miss
2024-10-24	Falcons	Buccaneers	46	47.4	1.4	Over	57	hit
2024-10-24	Ravens	Browns	45.5	44.5	1.0	Under	53	miss
2024-10-24	Bills	Seahawks	45	47.8	2.8	Over	41	miss
2024-10-24	Panthers	Broncos	41	41.4	0.4	Over	42	hit
2024-10-24	Bears	Commanders	29.5	46.6	17.1	Over	33	hit
2024-10-24	Cowboys	49ers	48	47.8	0.2	Under	54	miss
2024-10-24	Packers	Jaguars	49	48.6	0.4	Under	57	miss
2024-10-24	Colts	Texans	45	43.1	1.9	Under	43	hit
2024-10-24	Chiefs	Raiders	39.5	42.2	2.7	Over	47	hit
2024-10-24	Vikings	Rams	47.5	43.5	4.0	Under	50	miss
2024-10-24	Saints	Chargers	33.5	41.0	7.5	Over	34	hit
2024-10-24	Giants	Steelers	37	43.2	6.2	Over	44	hit
2024-10-24	Jets	Patriots	41	42.4	1.4	Over	47	hit
2024-10-24	Eagles	Bengals	47.5	49.1	1.6	Over	54	hit
2024-10-24	Titans	Lions	45	44.4	0.6	Under	66	miss
2024-10-17	Ravens	Buccaneers	50.5	46.7	3.8	Under	72	miss
2024-10-17	Panthers	Commanders	51.5	47.9	3.6	Under	47	hit
2024-10-17	Bengals	Browns	41.5	43.5	2.0	Over	35	miss
2024-10-17	Broncos	Saints	37	38.7	1.7	Over	43	hit
2024-10-17	Lions	Vikings	50.5	42.9	7.6	Under	60	miss
2024-10-17	Texans	Packers	48.5	45.4	3.1	Under	46	hit
2024-10-17	Chiefs	49ers	42.5	46.3	3.8	Over	46	hit
2024-10-17	Chargers	Cardinals	44	46.1	2.1	Over	32	miss
2024-10-17	Raiders	Rams	37.5	44.7	7.2	Over	35	miss
2024-10-17	Dolphins	Colts	43.5	41.7	1.8	Under	26	hit
2024-10-17	Patriots	Jaguars	42	43.7	1.7	Over	48	hit
2024-10-17	Jets	Steelers	40	42.3	2.3	Over	52	hit
2024-10-17	Eagles	Giants	42.5	45.5	3.0	Over	31	miss
2024-10-17	Seahawks	Falcons	51.5	47.3	4.2	Under	48	hit
2024-10-17	Titans	Bills	41	45.1	4.1	Over	44	hit
2024-10-10	Cardinals	Packers	47	46.7	0.3	Under	47	—
2024-10-10	Falcons	Panthers	55.5	45.4	10.1	Under	58	miss
2024-10-10	Bills	Jets	41	43.0	2.0	Over	43	hit
2024-10-10	Bengals	Giants	45.5	46.3	0.8	Over	24	miss
2024-10-10	Browns	Eagles	42.5	42.6	0.1	Over	36	miss
2024-10-10	Lions	Cowboys	52.5	46.7	5.8	Under	56	miss
2024-10-10	Texans	Patriots	37.5	41.3	3.8	Over	62	hit
2024-10-10	Colts	Titans	43	43.6	0.6	Over	37	miss
2024-10-10	Jaguars	Bears	44.5	42.8	1.7	Under	51	miss
2024-10-10	Chargers	Broncos	36.5	41.0	4.5	Over	39	hit
2024-10-10	Steelers	Raiders	36.5	42.3	5.8	Over	45	hit
2024-10-10	49ers	Seahawks	48.5	46.0	2.5	Under	60	miss
2024-10-10	Buccaneers	Saints	42	41.3	0.7	Under	78	miss
2024-10-10	Commanders	Ravens	51.5	49.8	1.7	Under	53	miss
2024-10-03	Cardinals	49ers	47.5	47.6	0.1	Over	47	miss
2024-10-03	Ravens	Bengals	48.5	46.6	1.9	Under	79	miss
2024-10-03	Bills	Texans	47	45.5	1.5	Under	43	hit
2024-10-03	Panthers	Bears	41	42.3	1.3	Over	46	hit
2024-10-03	Browns	Commanders	43.5	44.2	0.7	Over	47	hit
2024-10-03	Cowboys	Steelers	43.5	44.0	0.5	Over	37	miss
2024-10-03	Packers	Rams	43.5	46.3	2.8	Over	43	miss
2024-10-03	Colts	Jaguars	45.5	44.3	1.2	Under	71	miss
2024-10-03	Raiders	Broncos	35.5	40.1	4.6	Over	52	hit
2024-10-03	Dolphins	Patriots	35.5	40.4	4.9	Over	25	miss
2024-10-03	Saints	Chiefs	43	43.8	0.8	Over	39	miss
2024-10-03	Giants	Seahawks	39.5	43.8	4.3	Over	49	hit
2024-10-03	Jets	Vikings	40.5	41.8	1.3	Over	40	miss
2024-10-03	Buccaneers	Falcons	44	44.5	0.5	Over	66	hit
2024-09-26	Bills	Ravens	46.5	44.8	1.7	Under	45	hit
2024-09-26	Bengals	Panthers	47	46.2	0.8	Under	58	miss
2024-09-26	Browns	Raiders	42.5	41.0	1.5	Under	36	hit
2024-09-26	Cowboys	Giants	45	43.6	1.4	Under	35	hit
2024-09-26	Broncos	Jets	39	42.1	3.1	Over	19	miss
2024-09-26	Jaguars	Texans	44.5	43.9	0.6	Under	44	hit
2024-09-26	Chiefs	Chargers	26.5	44.2	17.7	Over	27	hit
2024-09-26	Rams	Bears	40.5	42.2	1.7	Over	42	hit
2024-09-26	Vikings	Packers	44	44.8	0.8	Over	60	hit
2024-09-26	Patriots	49ers	40.5	45.7	5.2	Over	43	hit
2024-09-26	Saints	Falcons	41	43.8	2.8	Over	50	hit
2024-09-26	Eagles	Buccaneers	42	45.1	3.1	Over	49	hit
2024-09-26	Steelers	Colts	40	42.6	2.6	Over	51	hit
2024-09-26	Seahawks	Lions	47	44.3	2.7	Under	71	miss
2024-09-26	Titans	Dolphins	37.5	41.0	3.5	Over	43	hit
2024-09-26	Commanders	Cardinals	49	47.2	1.8	Under	56	miss
2024-09-19	Ravens	Cowboys	47.5	43.8	3.7	Under	53	miss
2024-09-19	Panthers	Raiders	40	43.9	3.9	Over	58	hit
2024-09-19	Bears	Colts	43.5	41.0	2.5	Under	37	hit
2024-09-19	Broncos	Buccaneers	41	42.0	1.0	Over	33	miss
2024-09-19	Lions	Cardinals	37.5	45.5	8.0	Over	33	miss
2024-09-19	Packers	Titans	37.5	41.7	4.2	Over	44	hit
2024-09-19	Texans	Vikings	46	43.3	2.7	Under	41	hit
2024-09-19	Jaguars	Bills	46.5	44.4	2.1	Under	57	miss
2024-09-19	Chiefs	Falcons	46.5	44.2	2.3	Under	39	hit
2024-09-19	Chargers	Steelers	35	42.8	7.8	Over	30	miss
2024-09-19	Dolphins	Seahawks	42	41.3	0.7	Under	27	hit
2024-09-19	Patriots	Jets	38.5	43.2	4.7	Over	27	miss
2024-09-19	Giants	Browns	38	41.1	3.1	Over	36	miss
2024-09-19	Eagles	Saints	49.5	45.1	4.4	Under	27	hit
2024-09-19	49ers	Rams	48.5	45.5	3.0	Under	51	miss
2024-09-19	Commanders	Bengals	46	45.4	0.6	Under	71	miss
2024-09-12	Falcons	Eagles	45.5	45.2	0.3	Under	43	hit
2024-09-12	Bills	Dolphins	48.5	44.1	4.4	Under	41	hit
2024-09-12	Bears	Texans	45	42.4	2.6	Under	32	hit
2024-09-12	Bengals	Chiefs	56.5	44.7	11.8	Under	51	hit
2024-09-12	Browns	Jaguars	41.5	41.9	0.4	Over	31	miss
2024-09-12	Colts	Packers	40.5	40.1	0.4	Under	26	hit
2024-09-12	Chargers	Panthers	39	42.9	3.9	Over	29	miss
2024-09-12	Rams	Cardinals	48	44.5	3.5	Under	51	miss
2024-09-12	Raiders	Ravens	41	43.5	2.5	Over	49	hit
2024-09-12	Saints	Cowboys	46.5	43.2	3.3	Under	63	miss
2024-09-12	Giants	Commanders	43.5	42.4	1.1	Under	39	hit
2024-09-12	Jets	Titans	41	43.6	2.6	Over	41	—
2024-09-12	Steelers	Broncos	20.5	40.9	20.4	Over	19	miss
2024-09-12	Seahawks	Patriots	38	43.5	5.5	Over	43	hit
2024-09-12	49ers	Vikings	46.5	44.0	2.5	Under	40	hit
2024-09-12	Buccaneers	Lions	51	44.1	6.9	Under	36	hit
2024-09-05	Cardinals	Bills	47	44.3	2.7	Under	62	miss
2024-09-05	Ravens	Chiefs	47	43.6	3.4	Under	47	—
2024-09-05	Panthers	Saints	41.5	43.6	2.1	Over	57	hit
2024-09-05	Cowboys	Browns	41	43.5	2.5	Over	50	hit
2024-09-05	Broncos	Seahawks	45.5	41.8	3.7	Under	46	miss
2024-09-05	Packers	Eagles	49.5	43.2	6.3	Under	63	miss
2024-09-05	Texans	Colts	48.5	42.3	6.2	Under	56	miss
2024-09-05	Jaguars	Dolphins	49.5	43.6	5.9	Under	37	hit
2024-09-05	Rams	Lions	53.5	43.7	9.8	Under	46	hit
2024-09-05	Raiders	Chargers	32.5	44.0	11.5	Over	32	miss
2024-09-05	Vikings	Giants	41	43.5	2.5	Over	34	miss
2024-09-05	Patriots	Bengals	41	45.8	4.8	Over	26	miss
2024-09-05	Jets	49ers	41.5	45.3	3.8	Over	51	hit
2024-09-05	Steelers	Falcons	42	44.1	2.1	Over	28	miss
2024-09-05	Titans	Bears	44.5	42.3	2.2	Under	41	hit
2024-09-05	Commanders	Buccaneers	53.5	42.1	11.4	Under	57	miss
2024-01-04	Falcons	Saints	42.5	39.6	2.9	Under	65	miss
2024-01-04	Bills	Dolphins	48	48.6	0.6	Over	35	miss
2024-01-04	Bears	Packers	38.5	44.1	5.6	Over	26	miss
2024-01-04	Browns	Bengals	37	36.5	0.5	Under	45	miss
2024-01-04	Cowboys	Commanders	46.5	44.5	2.0	Under	48	miss
2024-01-04	Broncos	Raiders	41.5	38.4	3.1	Under	41	hit
2024-01-04	Texans	Colts	47.5	43.5	4.0	Under	42	hit
2024-01-04	Jaguars	Titans	42	42.7	0.7	Over	48	hit
2024-01-04	Chiefs	Chargers	32.5	37.0	4.5	Over	25	miss
2024-01-04	Rams	49ers	46.5	42.9	3.6	Under	41	hit
2024-01-04	Vikings	Lions	46.5	43.0	3.5	Under	50	miss
2024-01-04	Jets	Patriots	30	32.3	2.3	Over	20	miss
2024-01-04	Eagles	Giants	42	41.1	0.9	Under	37	hit
2024-01-04	Steelers	Ravens	29.5	38.8	9.3	Over	27	miss
2024-01-04	Seahawks	Cardinals	42.5	46.3	3.8	Over	41	miss
2024-01-04	Buccaneers	Panthers	37	40.3	3.3	Over	9	miss
2023-12-28	Cardinals	Eagles	48	47.1	0.9	Under	66	miss
2023-12-28	Falcons	Bears	38	39.2	1.2	Over	54	hit
2023-12-28	Panthers	Jaguars	36.5	37.4	0.9	Over	26	miss
2023-12-28	Bengals	Chiefs	52.5	44.1	8.4	Under	42	hit
2023-12-28	Lions	Cowboys	52.5	45.3	7.2	Under	39	hit
2023-12-28	Packers	Vikings	42	43.9	1.9	Over	43	hit
2023-12-28	Chargers	Broncos	34.5	39.1	4.6	Over	25	miss
2023-12-28	Rams	Giants	43.5	40.3	3.2	Under	51	miss
2023-12-28	Raiders	Colts	42.5	38.8	3.7	Under	43	miss
2023-12-28	Dolphins	Ravens	46.5	44.4	2.1	Under	75	miss
2023-12-28	Patriots	Bills	40	42.5	2.5	Over	48	hit
2023-12-28	Saints	Buccaneers	42	41.5	0.5	Under	36	hit
2023-12-28	Jets	Browns	34	31.8	2.2	Under	57	miss
2023-12-28	Steelers	Seahawks	52.5	41.2	11.3	Under	53	miss
2023-12-28	49ers	Commanders	49.5	47.3	2.2	Under	37	hit
2023-12-28	Titans	Texans	44	45.1	1.1	Over	29	miss
2023-12-21	Cardinals	Bears	48.5	42.6	5.9	Under	43	hit
2023-12-21	Ravens	49ers	47.5	45.9	1.6	Under	52	miss
2023-12-21	Bills	Chargers	44	44.0	0.0	Over	46	hit
2023-12-21	Bengals	Steelers	38	40.2	2.2	Over	45	hit
2023-12-21	Browns	Texans	40	35.8	4.2	Under	58	miss
2023-12-21	Cowboys	Dolphins	43.5	45.8	2.3	Over	42	miss
2023-12-21	Lions	Vikings	47.5	42.7	4.8	Under	54	miss
2023-12-21	Packers	Panthers	38	41.7	3.7	Over	63	hit
2023-12-21	Colts	Falcons	45.5	40.7	4.8	Under	39	hit
2023-12-21	Jaguars	Buccaneers	43	42.4	0.6	Under	42	hit
2023-12-21	Raiders	Chiefs	40.5	41.0	0.5	Over	34	miss
2023-12-21	Patriots	Broncos	37	38.4	1.4	Over	49	hit
2023-12-21	Saints	Rams	45	42.9	2.1	Under	52	miss
2023-12-21	Giants	Eagles	43	41.5	1.5	Under	58	miss
2023-12-21	Seahawks	Titans	41.5	45.0	3.5	Over	37	miss
2023-12-21	Commanders	Jets	37	37.0	0.0	Over	58	hit
2023-12-14	Falcons	Panthers	33	38.4	5.4	Over	16	miss
2023-12-14	Ravens	Jaguars	41.5	41.8	0.3	Over	30	miss
2023-12-14	Bears	Browns	37.5	37.3	0.2	Under	37	hit
2023-12-14	Cowboys	Bills	48.5	45.8	2.7	Under	41	hit
2023-12-14	Broncos	Lions	48.5	44.1	4.4	Under	59	miss
2023-12-14	Texans	Titans	37	41.9	4.9	Over	35	miss
2023-12-14	Chiefs	Patriots	37.5	40.3	2.8	Over	44	hit
2023-12-14	Chargers	Raiders	35	37.2	2.2	Over	84	hit
2023-12-14	Vikings	Bengals	40.5	39.8	0.7	Under	51	miss
2023-12-14	Giants	Saints	39	38.1	0.9	Under	30	hit
2023-12-14	Jets	Dolphins	37	39.8	2.8	Over	30	miss
2023-12-14	Steelers	Colts	42.5	40.7	1.8	Under	43	miss
2023-12-14	49ers	Cardinals	48	47.4	0.6	Under	74	miss
2023-12-14	Buccaneers	Packers	42.5	43.8	1.3	Over	54	hit
2023-12-14	Commanders	Rams	50.5	45.4	5.1	Under	48	hit
2023-12-07	Bills	Chiefs	44.5	46.6	2.1	Over	37	miss
2023-12-07	Panthers	Saints	38.5	40.6	2.1	Over	34	miss
2023-12-07	Broncos	Chargers	30.5	41.5	11.0	Over	31	hit
2023-12-07	Lions	Bears	43	43.9	0.9	Over	41	miss
2023-12-07	Packers	Giants	37	39.8	2.8	Over	46	hit
2023-12-07	Texans	Jets	32.5	38.2	5.7	Over	36	hit
2023-12-07	Colts	Bengals	44	42.2	1.8	Under	48	miss
2023-12-07	Jaguars	Browns	33.5	36.7	3.2	Over	58	hit
2023-12-07	Rams	Ravens	39.5	42.4	2.9	Over	68	hit
2023-12-07	Vikings	Raiders	14.5	38.0	23.5	Over	3	miss
2023-12-07	Patriots	Steelers	30	37.7	7.7	Over	39	hit
2023-12-07	Eagles	Cowboys	52	46.6	5.4	Under	46	hit
2023-12-07	Seahawks	49ers	41.5	46.2	4.7	Over	44	hit
2023-12-07	Buccaneers	Falcons	41	40.6	0.4	Under	54	miss
2023-12-07	Titans	Dolphins	45	46.5	1.5	Over	55	hit
2023-11-30	Cardinals	Steelers	41	41.6	0.6	Over	34	miss
2023-11-30	Falcons	Jets	33.5	35.9	2.4	Over	21	miss
2023-11-30	Panthers	Buccaneers	25.5	41.0	15.5	Over	39	hit
2023-11-30	Bengals	Jaguars	40.5	39.5	1.0	Under	65	miss
2023-11-30	Browns	Rams	41.5	38.1	3.4	Under	55	miss
2023-11-30	Broncos	Texans	47.5	45.6	1.9	Under	39	hit
2023-11-30	Lions	Saints	47	42.9	4.1	Under	61	miss
2023-11-30	Colts	Titans	41.5	42.1	0.6	Over	59	hit
2023-11-30	Chiefs	Packers	43	43.4	0.4	Over	46	hit
2023-11-30	Chargers	Patriots	39	41.1	2.1	Over	6	miss
2023-11-30	Dolphins	Commanders	49	46.2	2.8	Under	60	miss
2023-11-30	Seahawks	Cowboys	47.5	44.0	3.5	Under	76	miss
2023-11-30	49ers	Eagles	43.5	47.4	3.9	Over	61	hit
2023-11-23	Ravens	Chargers	48.5	44.2	4.3	Under	30	hit
2023-11-23	Bills	Eagles	47.5	47.1	0.4	Under	71	miss
2023-11-23	Panthers	Titans	36.5	40.9	4.4	Over	27	miss
2023-11-23	Bears	Vikings	43.5	41.2	2.3	Under	22	hit
2023-11-23	Browns	Broncos	36.5	37.6	1.1	Over	41	hit
2023-11-23	Packers	Lions	47.5	44.7	2.8	Under	51	miss
2023-11-23	Jaguars	Texans	48.5	42.7	5.8	Under	45	hit
2023-11-23	Chiefs	Raiders	50.5	40.1	10.4	Under	48	hit
2023-11-23	Rams	Cardinals	47.5	43.2	4.3	Under	51	miss
2023-11-23	Dolphins	Jets	41	40.1	0.9	Under	47	miss
2023-11-23	Patriots	Giants	34	36.9	2.9	Over	17	miss
2023-11-23	Saints	Falcons	41.5	40.0	1.5	Under	39	hit
2023-11-23	Steelers	Bengals	36	38.9	2.9	Over	26	miss
2023-11-23	49ers	Seahawks	43.5	46.2	2.7	Over	44	hit
2023-11-23	Buccaneers	Colts	45.5	41.8	3.7	Under	47	miss
2023-11-23	Commanders	Cowboys	49.5	44.2	5.3	Under	55	miss
2023-11-16	Cardinals	Texans	48	44.3	3.7	Under	37	hit
2023-11-16	Bears	Lions	48	44.5	3.5	Under	57	miss
2023-11-16	Bengals	Ravens	46	42.0	4.0	Under	54	miss
2023-11-16	Cowboys	Panthers	42.5	41.4	1.1	Under	43	miss
2023-11-16	Chargers	Packers	44	44.5	0.5	Over	43	miss
2023-11-16	Raiders	Dolphins	46	43.5	2.5	Under	33	hit
2023-11-16	Vikings	Broncos	43	41.9	1.1	Under	41	hit
2023-11-16	Giants	Commanders	37.5	38.4	0.9	Over	50	hit
2023-11-16	Jets	Bills	39	41.2	2.2	Over	38	miss
2023-11-16	Eagles	Chiefs	46	44.8	1.2	Under	38	hit
2023-11-16	Steelers	Browns	33	35.3	2.3	Over	23	miss
2023-11-16	Seahawks	Rams	42.5	44.6	2.1	Over	33	miss
2023-11-16	Buccaneers	49ers	41.5	44.7	3.2	Over	41	miss
2023-11-16	Titans	Jaguars	39.5	39.9	0.4	Over	48	hit
2023-11-09	Falcons	Cardinals	45.5	42.2	3.3	Under	48	miss
2023-11-09	Panthers	Bears	38	40.0	2.0	Over	29	miss
2023-11-09	Browns	Ravens	38	37.5	0.5	Under	64	miss
2023-11-09	Broncos	Bills	47.5	47.3	0.2	Under	46	hit
2023-11-09	Lions	Chargers	63.5	43.8	19.7	Under	79	miss
2023-11-09	Packers	Steelers	38.5	40.7	2.2	Over	42	hit
2023-11-09	Texans	Bengals	47	43.9	3.1	Under	57	miss
2023-11-09	Colts	Patriots	43	40.2	2.8	Under	16	hit
2023-11-09	Saints	Vikings	41	37.4	3.6	Under	46	miss
2023-11-09	Giants	Cowboys	38	39.2	1.2	Over	66	hit
2023-11-09	Jets	Raiders	35.5	36.3	0.8	Over	28	miss
2023-11-09	49ers	Jaguars	44.5	43.1	1.4	Under	37	hit
2023-11-09	Titans	Buccaneers	39	41.5	2.5	Over	26	miss
2023-11-09	Commanders	Seahawks	41.5	43.1	1.6	Over	55	hit
2023-11-02	Cardinals	Browns	38	39.7	1.7	Over	27	miss
2023-11-02	Bills	Bengals	50.5	44.2	6.3	Under	42	hit
2023-11-02	Bears	Saints	41	41.8	0.8	Over	41	—
2023-11-02	Cowboys	Eagles	53.5	43.3	10.2	Under	51	hit
2023-11-02	Colts	Panthers	42.5	41.7	0.8	Under	40	hit
2023-11-02	Chargers	Jets	41	40.7	0.3	Under	33	hit
2023-11-02	Rams	Packers	38	41.1	3.1	Over	23	miss
2023-11-02	Dolphins	Chiefs	50	46.3	3.7	Under	35	hit
2023-11-02	Vikings	Falcons	37.5	39.2	1.7	Over	59	hit
2023-11-02	Giants	Raiders	37.5	36.2	1.3	Under	36	hit
2023-11-02	Seahawks	Ravens	44	42.7	1.3	Under	40	hit
2023-11-02	Buccaneers	Texans	40	41.8	1.8	Over	76	hit
2023-11-02	Titans	Steelers	37	40.1	3.1	Over	36	miss
2023-11-02	Commanders	Patriots	41	40.1	0.9	Under	37	hit
2023-10-26	Falcons	Titans	35	39.9	4.9	Over	51	hit
2023-10-26	Ravens	Cardinals	37.5	43.2	5.7	Over	55	hit
2023-10-26	Bears	Chargers	46	44.7	1.3	Under	43	hit
2023-10-26	Bengals	49ers	48.5	44.1	4.4	Under	48	hit
2023-10-26	Browns	Seahawks	42.5	38.9	3.6	Under	44	miss
2023-10-26	Texans	Panthers	43.5	42.0	1.5	Under	28	hit
2023-10-26	Jaguars	Steelers	41	40.7	0.3	Under	30	hit
2023-10-26	Chiefs	Broncos	39.5	46.2	6.7	Over	33	miss
2023-10-26	Rams	Cowboys	45.5	42.5	3.0	Under	63	miss
2023-10-26	Raiders	Lions	45.5	45.7	0.2	Over	40	miss
2023-10-26	Vikings	Packers	41	42.5	1.5	Over	34	miss
2023-10-26	Patriots	Dolphins	47	44.5	2.5	Under	48	miss
2023-10-26	Saints	Colts	43.5	40.5	3.0	Under	65	miss
2023-10-26	Jets	Giants	35.5	38.4	2.9	Over	23	miss
2023-10-26	Eagles	Commanders	43.5	43.0	0.5	Under	69	miss
2023-10-26	Buccaneers	Bills	42.5	44.2	1.7	Over	42	miss
2023-10-19	Cardinals	Seahawks	29.5	43.8	14.3	Over	30	hit
2023-10-19	Falcons	Buccaneers	37	40.9	3.9	Over	29	miss
2023-10-19	Bills	Patriots	40	42.2	2.2	Over	54	hit
2023-10-19	Browns	Colts	41	37.7	3.3	Under	77	miss
2023-10-19	Lions	Ravens	43	42.8	0.2	Under	44	miss
2023-10-19	Packers	Broncos	35.5	43.3	7.8	Over	36	hit
2023-10-19	Jaguars	Saints	41	40.9	0.1	Under	55	miss
2023-10-19	Chargers	Chiefs	48.5	45.4	3.1	Under	48	hit
2023-10-19	Raiders	Bears	38	40.9	2.9	Over	42	hit
2023-10-19	Dolphins	Eagles	51.5	47.7	3.8	Under	48	hit
2023-10-19	Steelers	Rams	41.5	42.6	1.1	Over	41	miss
2023-10-19	49ers	Vikings	44	43.3	0.7	Under	39	hit
2023-10-19	Commanders	Giants	37.5	40.2	2.7	Over	21	miss
2023-10-12	Cardinals	Rams	38.5	44.5	6.0	Over	35	miss
2023-10-12	Ravens	Titans	42.5	43.1	0.6	Over	40	miss
2023-10-12	Panthers	Dolphins	47.5	46.4	1.1	Under	63	miss
2023-10-12	Cowboys	Chargers	50	42.5	7.5	Under	37	hit
2023-10-12	Broncos	Chiefs	47.5	46.6	0.9	Under	27	hit
2023-10-12	Lions	Buccaneers	32.5	43.1	10.6	Over	26	miss
2023-10-12	Colts	Jaguars	44	42.2	1.8	Under	57	miss
2023-10-12	Vikings	Bears	43.5	43.8	0.3	Over	32	miss
2023-10-12	Patriots	Raiders	36.5	41.4	4.9	Over	38	hit
2023-10-12	Saints	Texans	42.5	41.6	0.9	Under	33	hit
2023-10-12	Giants	Bills	44	43.8	0.2	Under	23	hit
2023-10-12	Eagles	Jets	35.5	43.0	7.5	Over	34	miss
2023-10-12	Seahawks	Bengals	44.5	43.8	0.7	Under	30	hit
2023-10-12	49ers	Browns	36	40.9	4.9	Over	36	—
2023-10-12	Commanders	Falcons	42	41.4	0.6	Under	40	hit
2023-10-05	Ravens	Steelers	38	42.5	4.5	Over	27	miss
2023-10-05	Panthers	Lions	44	42.7	1.3	Under	66	miss
2023-10-05	Bears	Commanders	45	43.1	1.9	Under	60	miss
2023-10-05	Bengals	Cardinals	60	44.0	16.0	Under	54	hit
2023-10-05	Cowboys	49ers	45	43.1	1.9	Under	52	miss
2023-10-05	Packers	Raiders	45	44.1	0.9	Under	30	hit
2023-10-05	Texans	Falcons	41.5	41.8	0.3	Over	40	miss
2023-10-05	Jaguars	Bills	48.5	43.8	4.7	Under	45	hit
2023-10-05	Chiefs	Vikings	57.5	44.1	13.4	Under	47	hit
2023-10-05	Saints	Patriots	39	41.3	2.3	Over	34	miss
2023-10-05	Giants	Dolphins	47.5	46.7	0.8	Under	47	hit
2023-10-05	Jets	Broncos	40.5	43.1	2.6	Over	52	hit
2023-10-05	Eagles	Rams	39.5	45.2	5.7	Over	37	miss
2023-10-05	Titans	Colts	43.5	42.1	1.4	Under	39	hit
2023-09-28	Cardinals	49ers	50.5	44.1	6.4	Under	51	miss
2023-09-28	Falcons	Jaguars	42.5	43.0	0.5	Over	30	miss
2023-09-28	Ravens	Browns	38.5	40.1	1.6	Over	31	miss
2023-09-28	Bengals	Titans	41	43.1	2.1	Over	30	miss
2023-09-28	Broncos	Bears	46.5	44.2	2.3	Under	59	miss
2023-09-28	Lions	Packers	45	43.7	1.3	Under	54	miss
2023-09-28	Chiefs	Jets	41.5	42.3	0.8	Over	43	hit
2023-09-28	Rams	Colts	45.5	40.9	4.6	Under	52	miss
2023-09-28	Raiders	Chargers	42.5	42.9	0.4	Over	41	miss
2023-09-28	Dolphins	Bills	53.5	46.1	7.4	Under	68	miss
2023-09-28	Vikings	Panthers	46.5	42.8	3.7	Under	34	hit
2023-09-28	Patriots	Cowboys	43.5	41.7	1.8	Under	41	hit
2023-09-28	Steelers	Texans	42	42.5	0.5	Over	36	miss
2023-09-28	Seahawks	Giants	46.5	45.2	1.3	Under	27	hit
2023-09-28	Buccaneers	Saints	40	42.0	2.0	Over	35	miss
2023-09-28	Commanders	Eagles	43	42.2	0.8	Under	65	miss
2023-09-21	Falcons	Lions	46.5	44.4	2.1	Under	26	hit
2023-09-21	Bills	Commanders	43	42.8	0.2	Under	40	hit
2023-09-21	Panthers	Seahawks	56.5	44.2	12.3	Under	64	miss
2023-09-21	Bears	Chiefs	48	45.4	2.6	Under	51	miss
2023-09-21	Cowboys	Cardinals	50.5	42.2	8.3	Under	44	hit
2023-09-21	Broncos	Dolphins	47.5	45.3	2.2	Under	90	miss
2023-09-21	Texans	Jaguars	44	42.2	1.8	Under	54	miss
2023-09-21	Colts	Ravens	43.5	43.6	0.1	Over	41	miss
2023-09-21	Chargers	Vikings	54	44.0	10.0	Under	52	hit
2023-09-21	Rams	Bengals	45.5	44.2	1.3	Under	35	hit
2023-09-21	Patriots	Jets	36	41.4	5.4	Over	25	miss
2023-09-21	Saints	Packers	42	42.2	0.2	Over	35	miss
2023-09-21	Giants	49ers	43.5	43.8	0.3	Over	42	miss
2023-09-21	Eagles	Buccaneers	44	42.3	1.7	Under	36	hit
2023-09-21	Steelers	Raiders	43.5	44.6	1.1	Over	41	miss
2023-09-21	Titans	Browns	39	42.6	3.6	Over	30	miss
2023-09-14	Ravens	Bengals	46	42.7	3.3	Under	51	miss
2023-09-14	Bears	Buccaneers	41	41.8	0.8	Over	44	hit
2023-09-14	Browns	Steelers	39	42.7	3.7	Over	48	hit
2023-09-14	Packers	Falcons	40.5	41.0	0.5	Over	49	hit
2023-09-14	Colts	Texans	39.5	40.5	1.0	Over	51	hit
2023-09-14	Chiefs	Jaguars	51	43.4	7.6	Under	26	hit
2023-09-14	Chargers	Titans	45.5	43.9	1.6	Under	51	miss
2023-09-14	Raiders	Bills	47	44.5	2.5	Under	48	miss
2023-09-14	Dolphins	Patriots	46.5	43.6	2.9	Under	41	hit
2023-09-14	Vikings	Eagles	49	43.3	5.7	Under	62	miss
2023-09-14	Saints	Panthers	39.5	42.4	2.9	Over	37	miss
2023-09-14	Giants	Cardinals	59.5	41.8	17.7	Under	59	hit
2023-09-14	Jets	Cowboys	38.5	42.0	3.5	Over	40	hit
2023-09-14	Seahawks	Lions	47.5	43.3	4.2	Under	68	miss
2023-09-14	49ers	Rams	54.5	42.8	11.7	Under	53	hit
2023-09-14	Commanders	Broncos	58.5	41.1	17.4	Under	68	miss
2023-09-07	Cardinals	Commanders	38	40.6	2.6	Over	36	miss
2023-09-07	Bills	Jets	44.5	43.8	0.7	Under	38	hit
2023-09-07	Panthers	Falcons	39.5	41.8	2.3	Over	34	miss
2023-09-07	Bengals	Browns	47.5	43.5	4.0	Under	27	hit
2023-09-07	Cowboys	Giants	44.5	44.7	0.2	Over	40	miss
2023-09-07	Lions	Chiefs	53	43.6	9.4	Under	41	hit
2023-09-07	Packers	Bears	41.5	41.2	0.3	Under	58	miss
2023-09-07	Texans	Ravens	43.5	44.0	0.5	Over	34	miss
2023-09-07	Jaguars	Colts	46	42.3	3.7	Under	52	miss
2023-09-07	Rams	Seahawks	43.5	44.2	0.7	Over	43	miss
2023-09-07	Raiders	Broncos	38.5	44.8	6.3	Over	33	miss
2023-09-07	Dolphins	Chargers	71.5	44.0	27.5	Under	70	hit
2023-09-07	Eagles	Patriots	46.5	44.2	2.3	Under	45	hit
2023-09-07	49ers	Steelers	41.5	42.6	1.1	Over	37	miss
2023-09-07	Buccaneers	Vikings	46	42.3	3.7	Under	37	hit
2023-09-07	Titans	Saints	42	45.5	3.5	Over	31	miss

All 815 totals shown · walk-forward · graded from the logged over/under result. Selective (edge ≥2) and 2025 records above are the tracked story; ROI illustrative at −110.

The two edges — totals and closing-line value — and why ATS isn’t headlined

Totals are the model’s edge market. Over the full log the over/under record is around coin-flip, but that’s the wrong cut: win% climbs monotonically with edge — at a 2+ point disagreement it hits 52.1% (250–230), about the 52.4% −110 breakeven, and clears it clearly at larger edges. 2025 was the standout at 57.5%.

Closing-line value (CLV) measures whether the line moves toward the model’s side by the time the market closes. When BBMI takes a side and the closing number is worse than the price it took, the model was early to information the market later agreed with. Across three seasons the picks beat the closing spread by +1.25 points (t=5.2) and the closing total by +0.66 points (t=3.2) — both statistically decisive. Beating the close is the most reliable known predictor of long-run skill.

Against the spread the model is roughly breakeven (~52.0%), and its high-edge ATS games are actually its worst — so we present the ATS record and its edge buckets straight, in context, rather than headlining a win rate that hasn’t cleared the bar. The per-game margin comparison is on the BBMI vs Vegas page.