WNBA · Public picks log
Model Performance.
The live paper experiment’s complete graded record — every spread and total projection, locked before tip, graded against the closing line. The ledger started July 19, 2026 and carries no silent edits.
Live experiment · 260 graded rowsGraded132
In calibration — 132 of 200 graded
PaperNothing is tiered or locked — every projection is public. Picks are made against the opener; grading is against the close (the harder benchmark). CLV is the experiment’s primary metric: how far the market moved toward our number.
Win rate · 13W–14L48.1%fired picks · |edge| ≥ 4
ROI (−110)-8.0%$100/pick at posted −110
Decided picks27graded · |edge| ≥ 4
95% CI30.7–66.0%Wilson interval on win rate
Calibration by divergence band
Win % and ROI by divergence from the opener — read the trend, not any single bucket. Small samples early; the curve is the signal a coin-flip model can’t counterfeit.
| Divergence (pts) | N | W–L | Win % | ROI (−110) | ROI vs breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 – 2 | 56 | 21–35 | 37.5% | -28.4% | |
| 2 – 4 | 49 | 26–23 | 53.1% | +1.3% | |
| 4 – 6 | 19 | 10–9 | 52.6% | +0.5% | |
| 6 – 8 | 7 | 3–4 | 42.9% | -18.1% | |
| 8 + | 1 | 0–1 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Per-pick log · n=132
| Date ▼ | Matchup ↕ | Close ↕ | BBMI ↕ | Edge ↕ | Pick | Margin ↕ | Result ↕ | CLV ↕ | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 |  Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics | -17.5 | -9.3 | 7.7 | Connecticut Sun +17.0 | 10 | ✓ Won | -0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-09-22 |  Toronto Tempo @ Chicago Sky | -5.5 | -6.1 | 0.6 | Chicago Sky -5.5 | 12 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-09-22 |  Minnesota Lynx @ Indiana Fever | -3.5 | -1.3 | 2.8 | Indiana Fever +1.5 | 19 | ✓ Won | +5.00 | +91 |
| 2026-09-22 |  Los Angeles Sparks @ Las Vegas Aces | -17.3 | -8.7 | 7.8 | Los Angeles Sparks +16.5 | 10 | ✓ Won | -0.75 | +91 |
| 2026-09-22 |  Golden State Valkyries @ Portland Fire | 14.0 | 9.1 | 5.4 | Portland Fire +14.5 | 8 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-09-21 |  Atlanta Dream @ New York Liberty | 1.5 | -0.6 | 2.1 | New York Liberty +1.5 | -11 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-09-21 |  Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | Phoenix Mercury +6.0 | 1 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-09-20 | Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun | 16.5 | 9.3 | 6.2 | Connecticut Sun +15.5 | -12 | ✓ Won | -1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-09-20 |  New York Liberty @ Toronto Tempo | 13.5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | Toronto Tempo +13.5 | -37 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-09-20 |  Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever | -6.0 | -7.5 | 2.0 | Indiana Fever -5.5 | -16 | ✗ Lost | +0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-09-20 |  Portland Fire @ Los Angeles Sparks | -1.5 | -1.6 | 0.9 | Portland Fire +2.5 | 21 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-09-20 |  Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces | -17.0 | -10.1 | 6.4 | Seattle Storm +16.5 | 21 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-09-19 |  Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings | -8.5 | -10.4 | 2.1 | Dallas Wings -8.3 | 5 | ✗ Lost | +0.25 | -100 |
| 2026-09-19 |  Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream | -15.0 | -7.4 | 4.1 | Chicago Sky +11.5 | 25 | ✗ Lost | -3.50 | -100 |
| 2026-09-19 | Seattle Storm @ Golden State Valkyries | -12.0 | -12.8 | 0.7 | Seattle Storm +13.5 | 13 | ✗ Lost | +1.50 | -100 |
| 2026-09-18 | New York Liberty @ Minnesota Lynx | -5.5 | -4.4 | 2.1 | New York Liberty +6.5 | -12 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-09-18 |  Indiana Fever @ Toronto Tempo | 15.8 | 8.6 | 2.9 | Toronto Tempo +11.5 | -18 | ✗ Lost | -4.25 | -100 |
| 2026-09-18 | Portland Fire @ Golden State Valkyries | -12.5 | -10.9 | 1.6 | Portland Fire +12.5 | 16 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-09-17 | Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream | -17.5 | -9.4 | 5.1 | Connecticut Sun +14.5 | 44 | ✗ Lost | -3.00 | -100 |
| 2026-09-17 | Washington Mystics @ Chicago Sky | 1.5 | -0.1 | 3.6 | Chicago Sky +3.5 | -30 | ✗ Lost | +2.00 | -100 |
| 2026-09-17 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings | -8.5 | -11.1 | 3.6 | Dallas Wings -7.5 | 20 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-09-17 | Phoenix Mercury @ Portland Fire | 3.3 | 0.1 | 2.4 | Portland Fire +2.5 | -3 | ✓ Won | -0.75 | +91 |
| 2026-09-17 |  Las Vegas Aces @ Seattle Storm | 10.5 | 3.7 | 4.8 | Seattle Storm +8.5 | -37 | ✗ Lost | -2.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-30 | Minnesota Lynx @ Atlanta Dream | 2.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | Minnesota Lynx -2.5 | 8 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-30 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm | 0.3 | -3.8 | 4.8 | Seattle Storm +1.0 | -16 | ✗ Lost | +0.75 | -100 |
| 2026-08-30 | Golden State Valkyries @ Portland Fire | 6.5 | 8.7 | 3.2 | Golden State Valkyries -5.5 | -17 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-30 | Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings | -15.5 | -13.6 | 0.9 | Connecticut Sun +14.5 | 26 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty | -8.5 | -7.2 | 1.3 | Chicago Sky +8.5 | 19 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-29 | Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury | -8.5 | -3.0 | 6.5 | Toronto Tempo +9.5 | 32 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-28 | Portland Fire @ Atlanta Dream | -13.0 | -7.6 | 4.9 | Portland Fire +12.5 | -18 | ✓ Won | -0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-28 | Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever | -17.5 | -13.7 | 2.8 | Connecticut Sun +16.5 | 20 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-28 | Toronto Tempo @ Las Vegas Aces | -14.5 | -8.5 | 7.0 | Toronto Tempo +15.5 | 20 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-28 | Washington Mystics @ Los Angeles Sparks | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | Los Angeles Sparks +5.5 | 6 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-27 | Golden State Valkyries @ New York Liberty | -3.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | Golden State Valkyries +2.0 | -19 | ✓ Won | -1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-27 | Washington Mystics @ Phoenix Mercury | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Washington Mystics -2.5 | -7 | ✓ Won | +3.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-26 | Golden State Valkyries @ Connecticut Sun | 14.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | Connecticut Sun +13.0 | -25 | ✗ Lost | -1.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-26 | Toronto Tempo @ Seattle Storm | -6.5 | -4.7 | 0.5 | Seattle Storm -4.3 | 12 | ✓ Won | +2.25 | +91 |
| 2026-08-25 | Chicago Sky @ Connecticut Sun | 7.5 | 1.2 | 3.8 | Connecticut Sun +5.0 | 6 | ✓ Won | -2.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-25 | Portland Fire @ Dallas Wings | -9.0 | -10.9 | 3.4 | Dallas Wings -7.5 | 18 | ✓ Won | +1.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-25 | Washington Mystics @ Phoenix Mercury | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | Phoenix Mercury +2.5 | -10 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-24 | Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx | -4.5 | -1.7 | 4.3 | Golden State Valkyries +6.0 | -14 | ✓ Won | +1.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-24 | Atlanta Dream @ Los Angeles Sparks | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | Los Angeles Sparks +9.0 | -7 | ✓ Won | -1.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-23 | Seattle Storm @ Dallas Wings | -8.5 | -10.2 | 3.7 | Dallas Wings -6.5 | 22 | ✓ Won | +2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-23 | Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | Chicago Sky +4.5 | -23 | ✗ Lost | +2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-23 | Washington Mystics @ Portland Fire | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | Portland Fire +3.0 | -5 | ✗ Lost | -1.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-23 | Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo | 13.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | Toronto Tempo +10.5 | -10 | ✓ Won | -3.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-22 | Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty | -2.0 | -0.9 | 0.1 | Indiana Fever +1.0 | 7 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-22 | Connecticut Sun @ Los Angeles Sparks | -5.0 | -2.9 | 0.4 | Los Angeles Sparks -2.5 | 9 | ✓ Won | +2.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-22 | Atlanta Dream @ Phoenix Mercury | 8.5 | 5.4 | 0.1 | Phoenix Mercury +5.5 | -10 | ✗ Lost | -3.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-21 | Golden State Valkyries @ Chicago Sky | 6.5 | 5.1 | 0.4 | Chicago Sky +5.5 | 3 | ✓ Won | -1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-21 | Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics | 1.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 | Washington Mystics +5.0 | -10 | ✗ Lost | +3.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-21 | Portland Fire @ Toronto Tempo | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | Toronto Tempo +1.5 | 3 | ✓ Won | -1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-20 | Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings | 3.5 | -1.6 | 4.4 | Dallas Wings +2.8 | 6 | ✓ Won | -0.75 | +91 |
| 2026-08-20 | Connecticut Sun @ Las Vegas Aces | -14.5 | -8.6 | 4.9 | Connecticut Sun +13.5 | 23 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-20 | Atlanta Dream @ Los Angeles Sparks | 9.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | Los Angeles Sparks +8.5 | -36 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-19 | Toronto Tempo @ Washington Mystics | -13.5 | -7.2 | 2.3 | Toronto Tempo +9.5 | 11 | ✓ Won | -4.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-19 | Minnesota Lynx @ Golden State Valkyries | 2.5 | -1.4 | 3.1 | Golden State Valkyries +1.8 | -11 | ✗ Lost | -0.75 | -100 |
| 2026-08-18 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun | 2.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | Connecticut Sun +1.5 | 8 | ✓ Won | -0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-18 | Indiana Fever @ Toronto Tempo | 10.5 | 8.8 | 0.7 | Toronto Tempo +9.5 | -6 | ✓ Won | -1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-18 | New York Liberty @ Chicago Sky | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | Chicago Sky +4.5 | 7 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-18 | Atlanta Dream @ Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 | -0.6 | 2.9 | Atlanta Dream +3.5 | -15 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-17 | Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries | -5.5 | -4.5 | 2.0 | Dallas Wings +6.5 | 8 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-16 | Indiana Fever @ Atlanta Dream | -2.5 | 0.9 | 3.4 | Indiana Fever +2.5 | -4 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-16 | Chicago Sky @ Seattle Storm | 1.5 | -2.2 | 3.7 | Seattle Storm +1.5 | -2 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-16 | Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury | -5.5 | -2.3 | 3.2 | Portland Fire +5.5 | -3 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-15 | New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun | 7.5 | 5.9 | 1.6 | Connecticut Sun +7.5 | -7 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-15 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics | -6.5 | -5.0 | 1.5 | Los Angeles Sparks +6.5 | 10 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-15 | Minnesota Lynx @ Las Vegas Aces | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | Minnesota Lynx -1.5 | -5 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-14 | Dallas Wings @ Indiana Fever | -7.5 | -4.1 | 1.4 | Dallas Wings +5.5 | 11 | ✗ Lost | -2.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-14 | Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm | -2.5 | -3.9 | 1.4 | Seattle Storm -2.5 | -2 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-13 | Atlanta Dream @ Connecticut Sun | 10.0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | Connecticut Sun +9.5 | -35 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-13 | Los Angeles Sparks @ New York Liberty | -8.0 | -8.6 | 0.1 | New York Liberty -8.5 | 4 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-13 | Washington Mystics @ Las Vegas Aces | -6.0 | -3.5 | 3.5 | Washington Mystics +7.0 | 7 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-12 | Toronto Tempo @ Dallas Wings | -9.0 | -11.6 | 1.6 | Dallas Wings -10.0 | 6 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-12 | Chicago Sky @ Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 | -9.3 | 0.2 | Chicago Sky +9.5 | 20 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-12 | Minnesota Lynx @ Portland Fire | 13.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | Portland Fire +12.5 | -4 | ✓ Won | -1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-11 | New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever | -3.0 | -4.4 | 0.1 | New York Liberty +4.5 | 14 | ✗ Lost | +1.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-11 | Washington Mystics @ Las Vegas Aces | -6.5 | -3.0 | 4.5 | Washington Mystics +7.5 | 10 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-11 | Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks | -1.8 | -1.1 | 2.1 | Los Angeles Sparks +1.0 | -7 | ✗ Lost | +2.75 | -100 |
| 2026-08-10 | Toronto Tempo @ Atlanta Dream | -15.0 | -8.5 | 3.5 | Toronto Tempo +12.0 | 12 | ✓ Won | -3.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-10 | Chicago Sky @ Seattle Storm | 2.5 | -1.3 | 0.2 | Chicago Sky +1.5 | 9 | ✗ Lost | +4.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-09 | Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty | -9.5 | -0.6 | 10.9 | Las Vegas Aces +11.5 | 40 | ✗ Lost | +2.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-09 | Phoenix Mercury @ Washington Mystics | -1.8 | -3.6 | 2.1 | Washington Mystics -1.5 | 20 | ✓ Won | +0.25 | +91 |
| 2026-08-09 | Dallas Wings @ Minnesota Lynx | -7.3 | -3.0 | 2.5 | Dallas Wings +5.5 | 13 | ✗ Lost | -1.75 | -100 |
| 2026-08-09 | Golden State Valkyries @ Los Angeles Sparks | 7.0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | Golden State Valkyries -6.0 | -6 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-08 | Las Vegas Aces @ Minnesota Lynx | -5.3 | -2.4 | 2.1 | Las Vegas Aces +4.5 | 11 | ✗ Lost | -0.75 | -100 |
| 2026-08-08 | Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky | 5.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | Chicago Sky +6.5 | -4 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-08 | Seattle Storm @ Portland Fire | 1.5 | -1.2 | 0.3 | Seattle Storm +1.5 | 7 | ✗ Lost | +3.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-07 | Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun | 5.0 | 0.9 | 4.6 | Connecticut Sun +5.5 | 3 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-07 | Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | Washington Mystics +3.5 | 5 | ✓ Won | -2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-07 | Golden State Valkyries @ Dallas Wings | 1.0 | -2.1 | 1.1 | Dallas Wings -1.0 | -18 | ✗ Lost | -2.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-06 | Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever | -1.0 | -3.3 | 1.8 | Indiana Fever -1.5 | -2 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-06 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -10.5 | 5.7 | Los Angeles Sparks +16.3 | -7 | ✓ Won | -0.25 | +91 |
| 2026-08-06 | Toronto Tempo @ Portland Fire | -2.5 | -1.1 | 0.9 | Toronto Tempo +2.0 | 14 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-05 | Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream | -6.5 | -5.0 | 0.5 | Atlanta Dream -4.5 | 14 | ✓ Won | +2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-05 | Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty | -8.0 | -8.2 | 0.3 | Seattle Storm +8.5 | 6 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-05 | Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | Dallas Wings -2.5 | 4 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-05 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky | -2.5 | -3.4 | 0.9 | Chicago Sky -2.5 | 7 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-04 | Toronto Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries | -11.5 | -11.8 | 1.7 | Toronto Tempo +13.5 | 11 | ✓ Won | +2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-03 | Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -7.8 | 0.7 | Seattle Storm +8.5 | 12 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-03 | Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream | -2.5 | -0.9 | 0.9 | Atlanta Dream 0.0 | -22 | ✗ Lost | +2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-03 | Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky | 1.5 | -2.5 | 1.5 | Chicago Sky -1.0 | -5 | ✗ Lost | -2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-02 | Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings | -11.0 | -13.0 | 2.5 | Dallas Wings -10.5 | 20 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-02 | Toronto Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries | -14.0 | -11.4 | 0.1 | Toronto Tempo +11.5 | 17 | ✗ Lost | -2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-01 | Las Vegas Aces @ Chicago Sky | 6.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | Chicago Sky +6.5 | 1 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-01 | New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | New York Liberty -2.0 | -2 | ✗ Lost | +0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-31 | Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream | -11.5 | -7.9 | 4.6 | Seattle Storm +12.5 | 9 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics | 3.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 | Dallas Wings -3.5 | 6 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-31 | Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire | 8.0 | 7.0 | 0.5 | Portland Fire +7.5 | -14 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-30 | Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky | -5.5 | -5.9 | 1.4 | Chicago Sky -4.5 | 6 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-30 | Minnesota Lynx @ Toronto Tempo | 12.5 | 9.2 | 2.3 | Toronto Tempo +11.5 | -32 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-30 | New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces | -4.5 | -1.0 | 3.0 | New York Liberty +4.0 | 5 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-29 | Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings | 1.5 | -4.9 | 3.4 | Dallas Wings -1.5 | -1 | ✓ Won | -3.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-29 | Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury | 3.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | Golden State Valkyries -5.5 | 2 | ✗ Lost | -2.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-28 | Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics | -6.5 | -5.5 | 0.0 | Connecticut Sun +5.5 | 8 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-28 | Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -11.5 | 3.0 | Toronto Tempo +14.5 | 7 | ✓ Won | -2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-28 | Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm | 9.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | Seattle Storm +6.5 | -10 | ✗ Lost | -2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-28 | Portland Fire @ Las Vegas Aces | -12.5 | -6.7 | 4.8 | Portland Fire +11.5 | 15 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-28 | New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 | -4 | ✓ Won | -0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.5 | Phoenix Mercury +1.5 | -4 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm | 9.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | Seattle Storm +9.5 | -10 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-22 | Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -6.4 | 4.1 | Chicago Sky +10.5 | 1 | ✓ Won | +3.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Las Vegas Aces @ Washington Mystics | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | Washington Mystics +5.5 | 1 | ✓ Won | -0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever | -10.5 | -11.5 | 1.0 | Indiana Fever -10.5 | 35 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Dallas Wings @ Portland Fire | 7.0 | 7.9 | 2.4 | Dallas Wings -5.5 | -4 | ✗ Lost | +1.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-20 | New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings | 4.5 | -6.4 | 5.4 | Dallas Wings -1.0 | -1 | ✓ Won | -5.50 | +91 |
| 2026-07-20 | Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo | 10.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | Toronto Tempo +10.3 | -26 | ✗ Lost | -0.25 | -100 |
| 2026-07-20 | Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 | -9.8 | 2.3 | Golden State Valkyries -7.5 | -8 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-20 | Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | Seattle Storm +10.3 | -3 | ✓ Won | +0.75 | +91 |
| 2026-07-19 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings | -10.0 | -11.5 | 4.0 | Dallas Wings -7.5 | 8 | ✗ Lost | +2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-19 | Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream | -10.5 | -6.5 | 5.0 | Chicago Sky +11.5 | 2 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-19 | Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury | -4.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 | Connecticut Sun +5.0 | 9 | ✗ Lost | +0.50 | -100 |
Net illustrates $100 per pick at −110 (win +$91, loss −$100, push $0) — no wagers are actually placed; this is a paper experiment. Gold rows are fired picks (|edge| ≥ 4). CLV = points the market moved from our published-at opener toward the close, relative to the pick side. A ⚑ marks rows published under a labeled ratings-refresh degradation.
How this ledger works
Locked before tip. Every projection is snapshotted and locked before the game starts — fingerprinted with a cryptographic hash so it cannot be edited afterward — then graded from the final score and the captured closing line. Rows carry no silent edits and are never deleted.
The honest prior. In four-season backtesting this model is market-competitive on accuracy with no established cash edge — the live season is the test, and the misses are published with the hits.