Model Accuracy.
The live paper experiment’s complete graded record — every spread and total projection, locked before tip, graded against the closing line. The ledger started July 19, 2026 and carries no silent edits.
Live experiment · 84 graded rowsCalibration by divergence band
Win % and ROI by divergence from the opener — read the trend, not any single bucket. Small samples early; the curve is the signal a coin-flip model can’t counterfeit.
| Divergence (pts) | N | W–L | Win % | ROI (−110) | ROI vs breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 – 2 | 22 | 10–12 | 45.5% | -13.2% | |
| 2 – 4 | 14 | 5–9 | 35.7% | -31.8% | |
| 4 – 6 | 8 | 6–2 | 75.0% | +43.3% | |
| 6 – 8 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| 8 + | 0 | — | — | — | — |
Per-pick log · n=44
| Date ▼ | Matchup ↕ | Close ↕ | BBMI ↕ | Edge ↕ | Pick | Margin ↕ | Result ↕ | CLV ↕ | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 |  Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun | 5.0 | 0.9 | 4.6 | Connecticut Sun +5.5 | 3 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-07 |  Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | Washington Mystics +3.5 | 5 | ✓ Won | -2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-07 |  Golden State Valkyries @ Dallas Wings | 1.0 | -2.1 | 1.1 | Dallas Wings -1.0 | -18 | ✗ Lost | -2.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-06 |  Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever | -1.0 | -3.3 | 1.8 | Indiana Fever -1.5 | -2 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-06 |  Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -10.5 | 5.7 | Los Angeles Sparks +16.3 | -7 | ✓ Won | -0.25 | +91 |
| 2026-08-06 |  Toronto Tempo @ Portland Fire | -2.5 | -1.1 | 0.9 | Toronto Tempo +2.0 | 14 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-05 | Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream | -6.5 | -5.0 | 0.5 | Atlanta Dream -4.5 | 14 | ✓ Won | +2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-05 |  Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty | -8.0 | -8.2 | 0.3 | Seattle Storm +8.5 | 6 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-05 |  Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | Dallas Wings -2.5 | 4 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-05 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky | -2.5 | -3.4 | 0.9 | Chicago Sky -2.5 | 7 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-04 | Toronto Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries | -11.5 | -11.8 | 1.7 | Toronto Tempo +13.5 | 11 | ✓ Won | +2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-03 | Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -7.8 | 0.7 | Seattle Storm +8.5 | 12 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-08-03 | Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream | -2.5 | -0.9 | 0.9 | Atlanta Dream 0.0 | -22 | ✗ Lost | +2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-03 | Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky | 1.5 | -2.5 | 1.5 | Chicago Sky -1.0 | -5 | ✗ Lost | -2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-02 |  Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings | -11.0 | -13.0 | 2.5 | Dallas Wings -10.5 | 20 | ✓ Won | +0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-08-02 | Toronto Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries | -14.0 | -11.4 | 0.1 | Toronto Tempo +11.5 | 17 | ✗ Lost | -2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-08-01 | Las Vegas Aces @ Chicago Sky | 6.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | Chicago Sky +6.5 | 1 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-08-01 |  New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | New York Liberty -2.0 | -2 | ✗ Lost | +0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-31 | Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream | -11.5 | -7.9 | 4.6 | Seattle Storm +12.5 | 9 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics | 3.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 | Dallas Wings -3.5 | 6 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-31 |  Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire | 8.0 | 7.0 | 0.5 | Portland Fire +7.5 | -14 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-30 | Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky | -5.5 | -5.9 | 1.4 | Chicago Sky -4.5 | 6 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-30 |  Minnesota Lynx @ Toronto Tempo | 12.5 | 9.2 | 2.3 | Toronto Tempo +11.5 | -32 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-30 | New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces | -4.5 | -1.0 | 3.0 | New York Liberty +4.0 | 5 | ✗ Lost | -0.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-29 | Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings | 1.5 | -4.9 | 3.4 | Dallas Wings -1.5 | -1 | ✓ Won | -3.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-29 | Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury | 3.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | Golden State Valkyries -5.5 | 2 | ✗ Lost | -2.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-28 | Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics | -6.5 | -5.5 | 0.0 | Connecticut Sun +5.5 | 8 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-28 | Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -11.5 | 3.0 | Toronto Tempo +14.5 | 7 | ✓ Won | -2.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-28 | Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm | 9.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | Seattle Storm +6.5 | -10 | ✗ Lost | -2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-28 |  Portland Fire @ Las Vegas Aces | -12.5 | -6.7 | 4.8 | Portland Fire +11.5 | 15 | ✗ Lost | -1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-28 | New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 | -4 | ✓ Won | -0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.5 | Phoenix Mercury +1.5 | -4 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm | 9.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | Seattle Storm +9.5 | -10 | ✗ Lost | +0.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-22 |  Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -6.4 | 4.1 | Chicago Sky +10.5 | 1 | ✓ Won | +3.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Las Vegas Aces @ Washington Mystics | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | Washington Mystics +5.5 | 1 | ✓ Won | -0.50 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever | -10.5 | -11.5 | 1.0 | Indiana Fever -10.5 | 35 | ✓ Won | +0.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-22 | Dallas Wings @ Portland Fire | 7.0 | 7.9 | 2.4 | Dallas Wings -5.5 | -4 | ✗ Lost | +1.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-20 | New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings | 4.5 | -6.4 | 5.4 | Dallas Wings -1.0 | -1 | ✓ Won | -5.50 | +91 |
| 2026-07-20 | Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo | 10.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | Toronto Tempo +10.3 | -26 | ✗ Lost | -0.25 | -100 |
| 2026-07-20 |  Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 | -9.8 | 2.3 | Golden State Valkyries -7.5 | -8 | ✗ Lost | +1.00 | -100 |
| 2026-07-20 | Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | Seattle Storm +10.3 | -3 | ✓ Won | +0.75 | +91 |
| 2026-07-19 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings | -10.0 | -11.5 | 4.0 | Dallas Wings -7.5 | 8 | ✗ Lost | +2.50 | -100 |
| 2026-07-19 | Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream | -10.5 | -6.5 | 5.0 | Chicago Sky +11.5 | 2 | ✓ Won | +1.00 | +91 |
| 2026-07-19 | Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury | -4.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 | Connecticut Sun +5.0 | 9 | ✗ Lost | +0.50 | -100 |
Net illustrates $100 per pick at −110 (win +$91, loss −$100, push $0) — no wagers are actually placed; this is a paper experiment. Gold rows are fired picks (|edge| ≥ 4). CLV = points the market moved from our published-at opener toward the close, relative to the pick side. A ⚑ marks rows published under a labeled ratings-refresh degradation.
How this ledger works
Locked before tip. Every projection is snapshotted and locked before the game starts — fingerprinted with a cryptographic hash so it cannot be edited afterward — then graded from the final score and the captured closing line. Rows carry no silent edits and are never deleted.
The honest prior. In six-season backtesting this model is market-competitive on accuracy with no established cash edge — the live season is the test, and the misses are published with the hits.