The whole record, one page
Spreads and totals, with the model’s number beside the market’s and the result that settled it, the same comparison the other six sports get. WNBA is paper tracked until enough data has been collected to determine a credible edge.
24 decided games cannot be read as a rate. The interval above spans 37 points, which is the honest width of what this sample can tell you.
What this model does not know
How to interpret this experiment
What this model does not know: it prices from team ratings and the posted line. It does not read injury reports, rest, travel or rotation news, and a late scratch it never saw is a game it priced wrong for a reason that has nothing to do with the model being right or wrong about the teams.
Calibration by edge
Spreads · 24 decidedPick rules and edge bands
The fired picks split by how far the model was from the market. Every band starts at the 4-point threshold or above, because nothing below it fired. Bands with no picks are not shown rather than printed as zeroes.
| EDGE (PTS) | FIRED | N | WIN % | AVG CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY EDGE INTERVAL · DESCRIPTIVE, SAME PICKS | ||||
| 4.0 to 6.0 pts | FIRED | 18 | 50.0% | -0.53 |
| 6.0 to 9.0 pts | FIRED | 5 | 20.0% | +0.10 |
| 9.0+ pts | FIRED | 1 | 0.0% | +2.00 |
How to read the edge intervals
Win rates in these bands are not colored against a break-even. At this sample size a band of two picks is a fact about two games, and coloring it green or red would dress it as a verdict. There is no ROI column because there is no wager: AVG CLV is what this sport publishes instead.
Month by month
SpreadsWhy no trend curve is shown
The experiment has run 3 months. No curve is drawn: a line between two points is a slope, not a trend, and drawing it would suggest the record is moving in a direction.
| MONTH | PICKS | WIN % | CUMULATIVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep ’26 | 6 | 16.7% | 41.7% |
| Aug ’26 | 12 | 41.7% | 50.0% |
| Jul ’26 | 6 | 66.7% | 66.7% |
The log
24 rowsHow to read this pick log
Every spread pick the model published, with the market’s closing number beside ours and which one landed closer. BBMI ERR and VEGAS ERR are each side’s projection against the actual, so CLOSER is decided by those two columns and nothing else. CLV is the separate question of which way the line moved after we published.
| SIDE | ACTUAL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun | +16.5 | +9.3 | 6.2 | home | -1.0 | WIN | -12 | 2.7 | 4.5 | BBMI |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Liberty @ Toronto Tempo | +13.5 | +6.7 | 6.8 | home | 0.0 | LOSS | -37 | 30.3 | 23.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-09-20 | Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces | -17.0 | -10.1 | 6.4 | away | -0.5 | LOSS | 21 | 10.9 | 4.0 | VEGAS |
| 2026-09-19 | Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream | -15.0 | -7.4 | 4.1 | away | -3.5 | LOSS | 25 | 17.6 | 10.0 | VEGAS |
| 2026-09-17 | Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream | -17.5 | -9.4 | 5.1 | away | -3.0 | LOSS | 44 | 34.6 | 26.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-09-17 | Las Vegas Aces @ Seattle Storm | +10.5 | +3.7 | 4.8 | home | -2.0 | LOSS | -37 | 33.3 | 26.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-08-30 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm | +0.3 | -3.8 | 4.8 | home | +0.8 | LOSS | -16 | 19.8 | 15.8 | VEGAS |
| 2026-08-29 | Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury | -8.5 | -3.0 | 6.5 | away | +1.0 | LOSS | 32 | 29.0 | 23.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-08-28 | Portland Fire @ Atlanta Dream | -13.0 | -7.6 | 4.9 | away | -0.5 | WIN | -18 | 25.6 | 31.0 | BBMI |
| 2026-08-28 | Toronto Tempo @ Las Vegas Aces | -14.5 | -8.5 | 7.0 | away | +1.0 | LOSS | 20 | 11.5 | 5.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-08-24 | Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx | -4.5 | -1.7 | 4.3 | away | +1.5 | WIN | -14 | 15.7 | 18.5 | BBMI |
| 2026-08-20 | Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings | +3.5 | -1.6 | 4.4 | home | -0.8 | WIN | 6 | 4.4 | 9.5 | BBMI |
| 2026-08-20 | Connecticut Sun @ Las Vegas Aces | -14.5 | -8.6 | 4.9 | away | -1.0 | LOSS | 23 | 14.4 | 8.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-08-13 | Atlanta Dream @ Connecticut Sun | +10.0 | +5.2 | 4.3 | home | -0.5 | LOSS | -35 | 29.8 | 25.0 | VEGAS |
| 2026-08-11 | Washington Mystics @ Las Vegas Aces | -6.5 | -3.0 | 4.5 | away | +1.0 | LOSS | 10 | 7.0 | 3.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-08-09 | Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty | -9.5 | -0.6 | 10.9 | away | +2.0 | LOSS | 40 | 39.4 | 30.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-08-07 | Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun | +5.0 | +0.9 | 4.6 | home | +0.5 | WIN | 3 | 3.9 | 8.0 | BBMI |
| 2026-08-06 | Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx | -16.5 | -10.5 | 5.7 | away | -0.3 | WIN | -7 | 17.5 | 23.5 | BBMI |
| 2026-07-31 | Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream | -11.5 | -7.9 | 4.6 | away | +1.0 | WIN | 9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | BBMI |
| 2026-07-28 | Portland Fire @ Las Vegas Aces | -12.5 | -6.7 | 4.8 | away | -1.0 | LOSS | 15 | 8.3 | 2.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-07-22 | Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty | -7.5 | -6.4 | 4.1 | away | +3.0 | WIN | 1 | 5.4 | 6.5 | BBMI |
| 2026-07-20 | New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings | +4.5 | -6.4 | 5.4 | home | -5.5 | WIN | -1 | 7.4 | 3.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-07-20 | Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo | +10.5 | +5.2 | 5.0 | home | -0.3 | LOSS | -26 | 20.8 | 15.5 | VEGAS |
| 2026-07-19 | Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream | -10.5 | -6.5 | 5.0 | away | +1.0 | WIN | 2 | 4.5 | 8.5 | BBMI |
A paper experiment. No wagers are placed and no edge is claimed. Past performance is not a guarantee.