MLB · MODEL PERFORMANCE

The whole record, one page

Both halves of the record in one place: every graded pick with its edge and result, and every projection measured against the Vegas line on the same games. Live since May 23, 2026, the start of the simulation era. Locked before first pitch, graded at posted prices, nothing removed.

✓ LOGGED BEFORE FIRST PITCH2026 season, from 5/23

1,471

Games priced

60.0%

F5 ML win rate

Sep 13, 2026

Graded through

SEASON

F5 MLFIRST-5 MONEYLINE · FIRED PICKS

60.0%

111W – 74L · 32P · 95% CI 52.8–66.8%

published · 2026 · break-even 60.2%

+0.8%

ROI at posted prices

+1.8u

Units won

F5 RLFIRST-5 RUN LINE · ±0.5

55.8%

125W – 99L · 1P · 95% CI 49.3–62.2%

published · 2026 · break-even 52.4%

+6.5%

ROI · −110 juice

+14.6u

Units won

LINE QUALITYF5 ML

44.8%

Share of games BBMI landed closer than the market, on the game total

published · 1,471 paired games · May 23 – Sep 13 ’26

3.66

BBMI game-total MAE

3.52

Market game-total MAE

Calibration by edge

published · F5 ML · 185 decided

First-five moneyline, home side only. The rows below are every pick split by how far apart the two teams were projected to be after five innings. In force today. Premium fires at home & EV > 0. The published rule offers no Premium ★ on this product, though 57 picks carry that tier, the first on Jul 30, 2026, from a marker written before the current star rule existed. The rows below split the picks by how far apart the model had the two teams, in runs, whichever side it favored. The first row of buttons cuts them by the EV the posted price gave, and the second scopes them to the side the model leaned.

PROJECTED RUN MARGIN	TIER AS POSTED	N	WIN %	ROI
AS POSTED · THE TIER EACH PICK ACTUALLY FIRED UNDER
	Premium	136	59.6%	+2.5%
	Premium ★ Best Bet	49	61.2%	-3.9%
All picks as posted	TOTAL	185	60.0%	+0.8%
BY EDGE INTERVAL · DESCRIPTIVE, SAME PICKS
0.00 to 0.50		29	41.4%	-13.3%
0.50 to 1.00		96	65.6%	+8.4%
1.00 to 1.50		41	58.5%	-6.8%
1.50 to 2.00		11	54.5%	-16.3%
2.00+		8	75.0%	+24.1%
All decided	TOTAL	185	60.0%	+0.8%

These are the same picks as the two rows above, cut by what the model projected instead of by the tier they were sold at, so the totals agree. The positive-EV requirement took effect on Aug 24, 2026, the date on the rules card; picks posted before it fired on the projected margin alone, which is why some of them sit below zero EV.

Each row is a range of projected run margin in runs, counted the same way whichever side it favored. All picks with Either selected is every decided pick this product posted; the buttons cut that set by the EV its price gave and by the side the model leaned. N counts DECIDED picks. Every ROI here divides realized units by every pick STAKED, pushes included, which is the definition the product card uses and the reason the total below matches it rather than reading 32 pushes higher. So a row’s N and the count its ROI was divided by are not always the same number.

Season to date

F5 ML

Cumulative win rate after each week, against the break-even this product is priced at. F5 ML prices at 60.2%, which is well above the -110 figure the spread products use, so the two are not comparable by eye.

7 weeksbreak-even 60.2%now 60.0%

BY WEEK ▼	PICKS	WIN %	ROI	CUMULATIVE
9/11 ’26	9	55.6%	-0.3%	60.0%
9/4 ’26	20	60.0%	+8.0%	60.2%
8/28 ’26	19	52.6%	-6.2%	60.3%
8/21 ’26	26	65.4%	+11.9%	61.3%
8/14 ’26	41	53.7%	-12.1%	60.4%
8/7 ’26	35	51.4%	-14.9%	64.3%
7/31 ’26	35	77.1%	+25.0%	77.1%

BBMI vs Vegas

1,471 games

No picks here, line quality head to head, on every game the sport priced. These are the published figures across 1,471 paired games, May 23 – Sep 13 ’26, and they are measured on the GAME TOTAL: the cohort carries no market margin line, so no sport-level margin pair exists to show.

WHICH LANDED CLOSERpublished · 659 / 808 / 4 tie

BBMI44.8%

VEGAS54.9%

MAE, RUNSVegas by 0.14 runs

Average miss on the game total, in runs

BBMI3.66

VEGAS3.52

PROJECTED WINNER ACCURACYVegas by 0.8 pts

Share of games each projection’s implied winner was right

BBMI55.7%

VEGAS56.6%

BRIER SCOREVegas by 0.005

Probability accuracy: rewards honest odds, not bold ones

BBMI0.248

VEGAS0.243

BIAS is published beside these and is not shown: it is a SIGNED lean compared on absolute value, so the smaller number is the smaller lean and not the better projection, which is the opposite of how every row above reads. Both sides lean the same way, low.

Calibration

Brier 0.248 · Published · full 1,471-game sample

Predicted win probability against the actual win rate, across every priced game rather than only the ones a pick fired on. This panel does not follow the product pill: the cohort is the sport’s. Read from the published panel rather than recomputed: a second derivation of a published number is a second number.

HOME WIN P	N	PRED	ACTUAL	GAP
< 35%	77	29.9%	53.2%	+23.4
35–45%	241	40.9%	42.3%	+1.5
45–55%	536	50.0%	50.6%	+0.5
55–65%	463	59.4%	58.7%	-0.6
≥ 65%	154	70.2%	63.6%	-6.6

A calibrated 60% should win about 60% of the time. GAP is actual minus predicted, so a positive number means the model was too cautious in that bucket. Brier 0.248 over 1,471 games; lower is better, and 0.25 is what a coin flip scores, which is worth reading against a sport this close to one.

Products & rules

thresholds read from config

The threshold at which each tier fires. Thresholds are versioned in config and read from it, never restated here.

PRODUCT	THE BET	PREMIUM	PREMIUM ★	IN FORCE FROM
F5 ML	First-five moneyline, HOME SIDE ONLY. Fires when the home price gives positive EV.	home & EV > 0	not offered	Aug 24, 2026
F5 RL	First-five spread, both sides. The sign of the edge picks the side.	\|edge\| ≥ 1.25	\|edge\| ≥ 1.75	Aug 5, 2026
F9 ML	Full-game moneyline, HOME SIDE ONLY. Fires when the home price gives positive EV.	home & EV > 0	home & EV ≥ 5%	Aug 24, 2026
F9 RL	Takes the +1.5 on the side the market has as the underdog. Covers if that side loses by one or wins.	away +1.5 cover ≥ 1.50 · home +1.5 cover ≥ 1.25	cover ≥ 2.25	Jul 5, 2026

The four break-evens differ because the four products are priced differently. A moneyline favorite needs a far higher hit rate to break even than a spread at -110, so comparing their win rates directly says nothing.

IN FORCE FROM is the day the definition in the two tier columns took effect, read from the registry that the tier labeler branches on, so the date and the rule cannot drift apart. Picks posted before it were tiered under the rule live that day and are reported that way in AS POSTED, never refitted to today’s.

These are the definitions in force today. They change through the season as the model is refined, and a change applies from its date forward only: a pick is never refitted to a rule that did not exist when it fired, and the log is never edited to match a newer one. Both moneyline products took their current definition on Aug 24, 2026, when the home-side requirement and the positive-EV requirement came in together. Picks posted before that day could take either side and could price below zero EV, which is why the log holds some of each and why they are counted in the record exactly as they fired.

All sports →

The log

217 rows · mlb-f5-ml.json

Every F5 ML pick, with what the model projected beside what the market posted. On this product the market posts a PRICE, not a line, so the market column is odds and there is no line to land closer to.

WIN P is the HOME side’s chance of leading after five innings, with ties refunded. A first-five moneyline pushes when the score is level after five, so home lead, tie and away lead are three outcomes and this column is the first of them, whichever side the model took.

THE PICK
					BBMI FAVORS				FINAL
2026-09-13	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	-125	+0.45	1.7%	Atlanta Braves	48%	Premium	LOSS	2–1
2026-09-13	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	+107	+0.26	7.9%	St. Louis Cardinals	44%	Premium	LOSS	1–0
2026-09-13	Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	-134	+0.50	2.8%	Minnesota Twins	50%	Premium	LOSS	4–1
2026-09-13	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	-155	+0.84	0.3%	Chicago Cubs	51%	Premium	WIN	1–2
2026-09-12	Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers	-160	+0.93	4.5%	Detroit Tigers	56%	Premium	PUSH	4–4
2026-09-12	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	-110	+1.05	22.1%	Toronto Blue Jays	54%	Premium	WIN	1–5
2026-09-12	Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	-124	+0.57	0.6%	Washington Nationals	48%	Premium	WIN	0–4
2026-09-12	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	+140	+0.43	30.4%	San Francisco Giants	47%	Premium	LOSS	5–3
2026-09-12	Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	-148	+0.72	2.9%	Tampa Bay Rays	51%	Premium	WIN	1–2
2026-09-11	Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers	-188	+0.99	3.0%	Detroit Tigers	59%	Premium	PUSH	1–1
2026-09-11	Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	-220	+1.30	1.8%	Tampa Bay Rays	58%	Premium	PUSH	1–1
2026-09-11	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	-107	+0.14	0.2%	Arizona Diamondbacks	46%	Premium	WIN	1–4
2026-09-10	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	-125	+0.67	6.8%	Atlanta Braves	49%	Premium	PUSH	0–0
2026-09-10	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	-117	+0.39	1.8%	Chicago White Sox	47%	Premium	LOSS	1–0
2026-09-09	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	-125	+0.56	4.1%	Detroit Tigers	49%	Premium	WIN	2–5
2026-09-09	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	-106	+0.45	7.5%	San Francisco Giants	47%	Premium	LOSS	5–1
2026-09-09	Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners	-152	+0.74	0.2%	Seattle Mariners	50%	Premium	WIN	1–3
2026-09-09	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	-105	+0.40	9.5%	Kansas City Royals	49%	Premium	WIN	2–5
2026-09-09	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	-130	+1.76	20.7%	Miami Marlins	61%	Premium	LOSS	8–3
2026-09-07	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	-145	+1.02	6.4%	Miami Marlins	56%	Premium	LOSS	7–4
2026-09-07	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	-180	+1.57	9.4%	San Diego Padres	61%	Premium	WIN	0–3
2026-09-07	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	-142	+0.53	1.0%	San Francisco Giants	51%	Premium	WIN	0–3
2026-09-07	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	-150	+1.17	1.0%	Los Angeles Dodgers	52%	Premium	WIN	1–2
2026-09-06	Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	+120	+0.17	12.1%	Cincinnati Reds	43%	Premium	WIN	6–9
2026-09-06	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	-105	+0.14	1.5%	Kansas City Royals	44%	Premium	WIN	0–6

All picks published before first pitch and graded at the price posted. Past performance is not a guarantee.