Continue the series: 2026 MLB Award Races
Crow-Armstrong Has Caught Ohtani in BBMI's NL MVP Model
Eleven days ago Shohei Ohtani won the National League in 498 of 500 BBMI simulations. Pete Crow-Armstrong now leads 331 to 169, after a six-homer stretch, an Ohtani cold spell and the addition of Statcast defense to the value board. The margin is 3.1 runs — and on the same September 2 data with defense removed, Ohtani still wins 494 of 500. A player-value projection, not a forecast of the writers' vote.
Crow-Armstrong 66.2% NL · Alvarez 100.0% AL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · MVPThe 2026 MVP Races, Updated: Two Runaways and the Case for Doubting Them
Six weeks after the break the model reads both leagues as coronations: Yordan Alvarez wins the AL value crown in 500 of 500 simulated finishes, Shohei Ohtani the NL in 498 of 500. But Alvarez watched both challengers land on the 60-day injured list, and Ohtani has not pitched since July 3 — strip the arm out and his lead over James Wood is under three runs. Every July call graded.
Alvarez 100.0% AL · Ohtani 99.6% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · Cy YoungThe 2026 Cy Young Races, Updated: Both Favorites Got Stronger
At the break the model had Cam Schlittler at 61% and Jacob Misiorowski at 47%. Six weeks later both are further ahead, at 72.6% and 61.6%, and both got there the same way: by pitching well enough that the regression built into their projections never arrived. Plus the July regression calls, graded — including the one the model still refuses to concede.
Schlittler 72.6% AL · Misiorowski 61.6% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · MVPThe 2026 MVP Races at the Break — Value, Not Just Numbers
MVP is value, not just numbers. The model reads the AL as a two-man race between Yordan Alvarez (56.5%) and Nick Kurtz (35.5%) — with Aaron Judge the most underrated bat in the league — while the NL is Shohei Ohtani's near-lock at 95%, a two-way case a great bat can't match. A luck board flags who the second half is about to correct.
Alvarez 56.5% AL · Ohtani 95% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · Cy YoungThe 2026 Cy Young Races at the Break — Reading the Real Leaders
BBMI grades the Cy Young on earned runs saved. The model has one runaway AL favorite in Cam Schlittler (61%) and a new NL frontrunner in Jacob Misiorowski (47%) — plus a regression board that separates the real leaders from the ERAs the second half is about to correct.
Schlittler 61% AL · Misiorowski 47% NL · 500 simulated seasonsRelated research
BBMI MLB Power Rankings, August 28: Milwaukee Keeps Winning, Atlanta Sweeps L.A., and the AL West Refuses to Cooperate
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with nine days of movement since the August 19 board. The Braves swept the best roster in baseball, Cleveland climbed eight spots on the nineteenth-rated roster, and the three clubs in the tightest division in the sport have five games left against each other.
Brewers .847 · Dodgers .661 talent · Guardians ▲8 · Royals 12–3 in last 15MLB · Power RankingsBBMI MLB Power Rankings, August 19: Milwaukee Holds No. 1, and the Central Comes Down to Seven Games
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with twelve days of movement since the August 7 board and the changes worth explaining. The Brewers and the Cubs play each other seven more times. Houston and Texas, a game apart, never play each other again.
Brewers .827 · Dodgers 37.0% NL · Blue Jays ▲7 · Mets 11–4 in last 15MLB · Power RankingsBBMI MLB Power Rankings, August 7: Milwaukee Takes No. 1, but the Dodgers Still Own October
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score. Milwaukee takes the top spot by a thousandth while the Dodgers keep the best October odds — a divergence amplified by an August 3 deadline that moved players without moving records.
Brewers .832 · Dodgers 35.6% NL · Tigers ▲6 · Red Sox 12–3See it live
This is the “we show our work” side. The Prediction Record is the other half — every call locked before the game and graded in public.