Research series · 2 installments
The Wrigley Wind Fix.
How the wind off Lake Michigan moves run scoring at Wrigley — and how the model learned to price it.
01Methodology · park factors
The wind was worth more than we said: an update to the Wrigley fix
A three-season walk-forward found the Lake Michigan wind moves Wrigley run scoring several times harder than our first correction credited — and confirmed it's the wind doing the work, not the warm afternoon it arrives on.
Wind swing at Wrigley · up to ~5 runs · 2024–2026 walk-forward02Park factorsWhat the wind off Lake Michigan does to run scoring at Wrigley
At Wrigley the wind off the lake can add or erase the better part of a run before a pitch is thrown — and for a long time the model's run projections couldn't see it.
Wind swing at Wrigley · up to ~1 run