Research series · 2 installments
2026 Award Races.
MVP and Cy Young at the break — graded on value and earned runs saved, not just the raw numbers.
01Awards · MVP
The 2026 MVP Races at the Break — Value, Not Just Numbers
MVP is value, not just numbers. The model reads the AL as a two-man race between Yordan Alvarez (56.5%) and Nick Kurtz (35.5%) — with Aaron Judge the most underrated bat in the league — while the NL is Shohei Ohtani's near-lock at 95%, a two-way case a great bat can't match. A luck board flags who the second half is about to correct.
Alvarez 56.5% AL · Ohtani 95% NL · 500 simulated seasons02Awards · Cy YoungThe 2026 Cy Young Races at the Break — Reading the Real Leaders
BBMI grades the Cy Young on earned runs saved. The model has one runaway AL favorite in Cam Schlittler (61%) and a new NL frontrunner in Jacob Misiorowski (47%) — plus a regression board that separates the real leaders from the ERAs the second half is about to correct.
Schlittler 61% AL · Misiorowski 47% NL · 500 simulated seasons