2026 MLB Award Races.
The MVP and Cy Young boards, run at the All-Star break, again in late August and again in September: graded on value and runs saved, with every call left on the record.
Crow-Armstrong Has Caught Ohtani in BBMI's NL MVP Model
Eleven days ago Shohei Ohtani won the National League in 498 of 500 BBMI simulations. Pete Crow-Armstrong now leads 331 to 169, after a six-homer stretch, an Ohtani cold spell and the addition of Statcast defense to the value board. The margin is 3.1 runs — and on the same September 2 data with defense removed, Ohtani still wins 494 of 500. A player-value projection, not a forecast of the writers' vote.
Crow-Armstrong 66.2% NL · Alvarez 100.0% AL · 500 simulated seasons02Awards · Cy YoungSchlittler, Misiorowski Hold Cy Young Leads as Sale Surges
Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski answered late-August pressure with wins, and the model still has both atop their leagues at 67.0% and 58.8%. The movement is behind them: Parker Messick has climbed to 20.2%, Dylan Cease to 11.8%, and Chris Sale to 11.8% on the back of a nine-inning shutout of the Dodgers. Plus the July and August calls, graded.
Schlittler 67.0% AL · Misiorowski 58.8% NL · 500 simulated seasons03Awards · MVPThe 2026 MVP Races, Updated: Two Runaways and the Case for Doubting Them
Six weeks after the break the model reads both leagues as coronations: Yordan Alvarez wins the AL value crown in 500 of 500 simulated finishes, Shohei Ohtani the NL in 498 of 500. But Alvarez watched both challengers land on the 60-day injured list, and Ohtani has not pitched since July 3 — strip the arm out and his lead over James Wood is under three runs. Every July call graded.
Alvarez 100.0% AL · Ohtani 99.6% NL · 500 simulated seasons04Awards · Cy YoungThe 2026 Cy Young Races, Updated: Both Favorites Got Stronger
At the break the model had Cam Schlittler at 61% and Jacob Misiorowski at 47%. Six weeks later both are further ahead, at 72.6% and 61.6%, and both got there the same way: by pitching well enough that the regression built into their projections never arrived. Plus the July regression calls, graded — including the one the model still refuses to concede.
Schlittler 72.6% AL · Misiorowski 61.6% NL · 500 simulated seasons05Awards · MVPThe 2026 MVP Races at the Break — Value, Not Just Numbers
MVP is value, not just numbers. The model reads the AL as a two-man race between Yordan Alvarez (56.5%) and Nick Kurtz (35.5%) — with Aaron Judge the most underrated bat in the league — while the NL is Shohei Ohtani's near-lock at 95%, a two-way case a great bat can't match. A luck board flags who the second half is about to correct.
Alvarez 56.5% AL · Ohtani 95% NL · 500 simulated seasons06Awards · Cy YoungThe 2026 Cy Young Races at the Break — Reading the Real Leaders
BBMI grades the Cy Young on earned runs saved. The model has one runaway AL favorite in Cam Schlittler (61%) and a new NL frontrunner in Jacob Misiorowski (47%) — plus a regression board that separates the real leaders from the ERAs the second half is about to correct.
Schlittler 61% AL · Misiorowski 47% NL · 500 simulated seasons