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Schlittler Pulls Clear; Misiorowski and Yamamoto Lead the NL Race
September 16: Cam Schlittler leads the AL runs-saved model at 99.8%. Jacob Misiorowski leads the NL at 57.4%, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 37.2% and Chris Sale at 5.4%. Updated inputs, 500 simulated finishes.
Cam Schlittler 99.8% AL · Jacob Misiorowski 57.4% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · MVPCrow-Armstrong Pulls Ahead in the September MVP Update
September 16: Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the NL value model at 97.0%, up from 66.2%. Yordan Alvarez again finishes first in all 500 AL simulations. Updated batting, pitching and Statcast fielding inputs; the same player-value framework.
Yordan Alvarez 100.0% AL · Pete Crow-Armstrong 97.0% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · Cy YoungSchlittler, Misiorowski Hold Cy Young Leads as Sale Surges
Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski answered late-August pressure with wins, and the model still has both atop their leagues at 67.0% and 58.8%. The movement is behind them: Parker Messick has climbed to 20.2%, Dylan Cease to 11.8%, and Chris Sale to 11.8% on the back of a nine-inning shutout of the Dodgers. Plus the July and August calls, graded.
Schlittler 67.0% AL · Misiorowski 58.8% NL · 500 simulated seasonsSee it live
This is the “we show our work” side. The Prediction Record is the other half — every call locked before the game and graded in public.