Related research
The wind was worth more than we said: an update to the Wrigley fix
A three-season walk-forward found the Lake Michigan wind moves Wrigley run scoring several times harder than our first correction credited — and confirmed it's the wind doing the work, not the warm afternoon it arrives on.
Wind swing at Wrigley · up to ~5 runs · 2024–2026 walk-forwardPark factorsWhat the wind off Lake Michigan does to run scoring at Wrigley
At Wrigley the wind off the lake can add or erase the better part of a run before a pitch is thrown — and for a long time the model's run projections couldn't see it.
Wind swing at Wrigley · up to ~1 runMLB · Power RankingsBBMI MLB Power Rankings, August 7: Milwaukee Takes No. 1, but the Dodgers Still Own October
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score. Milwaukee takes the top spot by a thousandth while the Dodgers keep the best October odds — a divergence amplified by an August 3 deadline that moved players without moving records.
Brewers .832 · Dodgers 35.6% NL · Tigers ▲6 · Red Sox 12–3See it live
This is the “we show our work” side. The Prediction Record is the other half — every call locked before the game and graded in public.