2026 Big Ten Football Previews.
By-the-numbers previews for seven Big Ten teams in 2026: projected records, the games that decide the season, and exactly what the model can and can't see. A selection, not the full conference.
Eleven Gone to the NFL, Still No. 1: Ohio State's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Ohio State sent eleven players to the NFL, four of them in the top eleven picks, and lost eight defensive starters. BBMI still grades the Buckeyes 1st nationally at +37.6 and 1st of 18 in the Big Ten, with the No. 1 defense and No. 2 offense by SP+ input — the exact mirror of Oregon, 1.7 neutral-field points behind. They are favored in all twelve games, and the projection is still 10–2: a slate this hard costs even the No. 1 team a game or two.
#1 nationally · +37.6 · 1st of 18 Big Ten · 10–2 projected · favored in all 1202NCAAF · Season PreviewEverything But the Trophy: Oregon's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Two straight 13-win seasons, two straight Playoff exits, and twice in 2025 the same team standing in the way. BBMI grades Oregon 2nd nationally at +35.9 and 2nd of 18 in the Big Ten, 1.7 neutral-field points behind Ohio State, with the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense by SP+ input and a quarterback who turned down the NFL. The projection is 10–2, and exactly one rated game on the schedule makes the Ducks an underdog: November 7 in Columbus.
#2 nationally · +35.9 · 2nd of 18 Big Ten · 10–2 projected · 38% at Ohio State03NCAAF · Season PreviewSixteen-and-Oh, Then the NFL Came Calling: Indiana's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Indiana went 16–0 and won the first national title in the program's 139-year history, then sent a program-record eight players to the NFL — including Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 overall. Curt Cignetti reloaded through the portal again. BBMI grades the Hoosiers 5th nationally, 3rd of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 10–2 (~7–2): about 9.7 expected wins, no Oregon on the schedule, and exactly one game the model makes them an underdog — Ohio State, at home, on October 17.
#5 nationally · 3rd of 18 Big Ten · 10–2 base case · Ohio State ~40% Oct 1704NCAAF · Season PreviewNew Sideline, Same Franchise QB: Michigan's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Sherrone Moore is out, Kyle Whittingham is in, and Bryce Underwood is back for year two. BBMI grades Michigan 17th nationally, 6th of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 8–4 — about 7.3 expected wins — on a schedule with no easy stretch: Oklahoma, Penn State, at Oregon, and a November trip to Columbus where the model makes the Wolverines a 17% underdog.
#17 nationally · 6th of 18 Big Ten · 8–4 base case · The Game ~17%05NCAAF · Season PreviewReload in Lincoln: Nebraska's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Nebraska is coming off back-to-back bowls for the first time since 2015–16 and a coach locked up through 2032 — then lost quarterback Dylan Raiola to Oregon and All-American back Emmett Johnson to the NFL Draft. BBMI grades the Huskers 37th nationally, 10th of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 6–6 (3–6): about 6.2 expected wins, a cupcake non-conference tray, a vicious back half, and a Black Friday trip to Iowa where the model makes them an 8-point underdog.
#37 nationally · 10th of 18 Big Ten · 6–6 base case · Iowa ~34% (8-pt dog)06NCAAF · Season PreviewRow the Boat, Again: Minnesota's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Minnesota is coming off 8–5 and a bowl win with almost everyone back — the coach, the quarterback, the star running back. BBMI grades the Gophers 50th nationally, 12th of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 7–5 that sits right on the six-win bowl line: about 6.0 expected wins, four true toss-ups, a defense reloading after losing an All-America safety to Oregon, and a fall of three rivalry trophies capped by an Axe game the model calls the closest on the schedule.
#50 nationally · 12th of 18 Big Ten · 7–5 base case · Axe ~53–47 MN07NCAAF · Season PreviewCan the Badgers Climb Off the Floor? Wisconsin's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Wisconsin is coming off a 4–8 collapse, the Air Raid finally buried, and a coach on the hot seat. BBMI has started modeling college football and the Badgers are one of the first teams up: 67th nationally, 17th of 18 in the Big Ten, and a projected 5–7 (3–6) that's softer than the record looks: about 5.5 expected wins, four true toss-ups short of a bowl, and a season-closing Axe game that grades as the closest call on the schedule.
#67 nationally · 17th of 18 Big Ten · 5–7 base case · Axe ~53–47 MN