🏆 NCAA Tournament Model

NCAA Tournament Probabilities

BBMI's bracket simulation model — probability of each team advancing through each round by region.

🗂️ View Full Bracket →🏀 Today's Picks →

Full bracket probabilities are on the Bracket Pulse page · Each team's complete odds are on their team page

Showing: Win Championship Probability

Top 10 teams per region, ranked by BBMI Monte Carlo simulation

Top 25 — Win Championship

All regions

🥇

Michigan

Midwest · Seed #1

20.1%

2

Arizona

West · Seed #1

17.8%

3

Duke

East · Seed #1

15.7%

4

Florida

South · Seed #1

4.2%

5

Illinois

Midwest · Seed #2

3.9%

6

Michigan State

South · Seed #3

3.7%

7

Purdue

Midwest · Seed #3

3.5%

8

Gonzaga

West · Seed #2

3.4%

9

Nebraska

West · Seed #3

2.6%

10

Iowa State

East · Seed #2

2.4%

11

Vanderbilt

East · Seed #4

1.5%

12

Arkansas

Midwest · Seed #5

1.5%

13

Houston

South · Seed #2

1.4%

14

UConn

East · Seed #3

1.1%

15

Virginia

South · Seed #4

1.1%

16

Saint Mary's

West · Seed #6

1.1%

17

St. John's

East · Seed #6

0.9%

18

Saint Louis

East · Seed #7

0.9%

19

Kansas

West · Seed #5

0.9%

20

Tennessee

East · Seed #5

0.8%

21

Louisville

Midwest · Seed #4

0.8%

22

Wisconsin

South · Seed #7

0.8%

23

Alabama

South · Seed #5

0.7%

24

Ohio State

Midwest · Seed #8

0.6%

25

North Carolina

South · Seed #6

0.6%

Probabilities generated by BBMI Monte Carlo simulation using team efficiency ratings and seeding. Updated daily.

Full bracket probabilities by region →Today's picks →