ACC • 2025–26 SEASON
North Carolina
#32
BBMI rank
+25.2
Rating
#32
KenPom
#24
NET
Last game
Game Picks →
VCU
THU MAR 19
82 – 78
final score
North Carolina
+1.5
Model line
-2.5
Market line
-4.0
Edge · Tracked ATS
45%
Win probability
North Carolina 45%VCU 55%
The 2025–26 season is complete. The board returns in November.
Schedule & projections
line and win prob from the board, where it priced the gameDATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Nov 4
vs Central ArkansasW 94–54#119
vs Central ArkansasNov 8
vs KansasW 87–74#18
vs KansasNov 12
vs RadfordW 89–74#264
vs RadfordNov 15
vs North Carolina CentralW 97–53#319
vs North Carolina CentralNov 19
vs NavyW 73–61#162
vs NavyNov 25
vs St. BonaventureW 85–70#123
vs St. BonaventureNov 27
vs Michigan StateL 58–74#6
vs Michigan StateDec 2
at KentuckyW 67–64#35
at KentuckyDec 7
vs GeorgetownW 81–61#86
vs GeorgetownDec 13
vs USC UpstateW 80–62#298
vs USC UpstateDec 16
vs East Tennessee StateW 77–58#94
vs East Tennessee StateDec 20
at Ohio StateW 71–70#27
at Ohio StateDec 22
vs East CarolinaW 99–51#285
vs East CarolinaDec 30
vs Florida StateW 79–66#116
vs Florida StateJan 3
at SMUL 83–97#38
at SMUJan 10
vs Wake ForestW 87–84#7681–7383%
vs Wake ForestJan 14
at StanfordL 90–95#12777–7362%
at StanfordJan 17
at CaliforniaL 78–84#6878–7250%
at CaliforniaJan 21
vs Notre DameW 91–69#20181–7190%
vs Notre DameJan 24
at VirginiaW 85–80#1672–7725%
at VirginiaJan 31
at Georgia TechW 91–75#22482–6790%
at Georgia TechFeb 2
vs SyracuseW 87–77#19980–7188%
vs SyracuseFeb 7
vs DukeW 71–68#368–8052%
vs DukeFeb 10
at Miami (FL)L 66–75#3175–7743%
at Miami (FL)Feb 14
vs PittsburghW 79–65#24079–6996%
vs PittsburghFeb 17
at NC StateL 58–82#4878–7829%
at NC StateFeb 21at SyracuseW 77–64#19979–7254%
at SyracuseFeb 23
vs LouisvilleW 77–74#2276–7857%
vs LouisvilleFeb 28
vs Virginia TechW 89–82#5379–7283%
vs Virginia TechMar 3
vs ClemsonW 67–63#4773–7177%
vs ClemsonMar 7at DukeL 61–76#367–8012%
at DukeMar 12vs ClemsonL 79–80#4772–7157%
vs ClemsonMar 19vs VCUL 78–82#3377–7545%
vs VCURanking over time
weekly · place of 365#15#22#29#36#43
#32
Jan 27Feb 3Feb 10Feb 17Feb 24Mar 3Mar 10Mar 17Mar 24Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28
14 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing. The series stops where the season did and resumes when the sport does.
NCAA tournament
Pulse →6
Seed
South
Region
Round of 64
Finish
The bracket is resolved, so this is the result rather than a probability. It becomes an odds card again when the file carries fractions.
Regular-season wins
not publishedThis sport has no season simulation, so there is no distribution of win totals to draw.
Profile
Strength of schedule#24
KenPom rank#32
NET rank#24
Quality wins17.5#27
Rebound margin+3.2#53
Turnover margin-0.5#202
Assists per game15.6#45
Three-point margin-0.005#213
The mock asks for offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo and experience. This sport publishes none of them: the feed carries raw shooting and rebound rates, which are not opponent-adjusted efficiency and must not wear that heading. The rankings board drops the same columns for the same reason.
BBMI picks on North Carolina
2025–26 • ATS6–1
Picks on North Carolina
2–1
Picks against
+5.3u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. This sport does not store the side by name, so it is read from which way the model’s line sits against the market, and a game counts only once it clears the published edge floor. 10 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.