The BBMI Weekly Review · Oct. 5 to Oct. 14, 2026
Inside a 27-17-2 Stretch: A Tie in Landover, a Missed Extra Point and 6-0 in the MLB Playoffs
Two BBMI picks won in a 27-27 NFL tie and another pushed on a missed extra point. MLB went 6-0 in the playoffs and college football split 12-12-1. Here are the results by product, the biggest misses and the season record for every product.
With 12 seconds left in overtime, Washington had second-and-8 at the New York 24, already in field-goal range. The Commanders called a pass, Jayden Daniels scrambled and was tackled, and Washington could not stop the clock before time expired. Giants 27, Commanders 27.
It was the third tie between the two teams since the NFL added overtime in 1974, and it was a good result for two BBMI picks. We had the Giants getting 3.5 points and the game over 41.5. The Giants pick looked lost with 11:05 left, when Washington led 27-13. Jameis Winston answered with two touchdown drives, the second a 17-yard pass to Malik Nabers with 1:43 left. That tied the game and put the total at 54, so the over was already in. Overtime nearly decided the game and barely touched the spread: Cam Skattebo fumbled at the Washington 24 with the Giants in field-goal range, and even a Washington field goal at the end would have left the Giants covering by half a point.
That is what this column is for. BBMI forecasts games in the NFL, college football, college basketball, Major League Baseball and college baseball, and runs a paper-tracked WNBA model. Every pick is logged before kickoff, tipoff or first pitch and graded from the final score, and nothing is removed from the record. Each edition goes through those results, including the ones that came down to a single play, whichever way it broke. This one covers the 10 days since the last review, Oct. 5 through Oct. 14.
The 10 days, by product
The live products went 27-17-2. MLB went 6-0 across the Division Series and the start of the American League Championship Series, the NFL went 9-5-1, and college football split at 12-12-1. Ten days is still too small a sample to judge any of these products: NFL totals had eight picks, so a single result moves that record by 12.5 points of win rate. The season columns are the better guide.
Window: games dated Oct. 5 through Oct. 14. Season: the Model Performance pages as read on Oct. 15.
| Product | Oct. 5-14 | Window ROI | Season | Season ROI | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL spreads | 4-2-1 | +27.3% | 17-17 | -4.5% | 52.4% |
| NFL totals | 5-3 | +19.4% | 16-15 | -1.4% | 52.4% |
| NCAAF premium ATS | 12-12-1 | -4.5% | 54-43 | +6.3% | 52.4% |
| MLB F5 moneyline | 3-0 | +82.1% | 138-89-38 | +3.2% | 58.6% |
| MLB F5 run line | No picks | 126-100-1 | +6.4% | 52.4% | |
| MLB F9 moneyline | 2-0 | +74.6% | 124-72 | +6.6% | 59.3% |
| MLB F9 run line | 1-0 | +58.1% | 258-140 | +1.7% | 63.7% |
| NCAAB spreads, 2025-26 | No games | 257-138 | +24.3% | 52.4% | |
| NCAAB totals, 2025-26 | No games | 795-484 | +18.7% | 52.4% | |
| NCAA baseball spreads, 2026 | No games | 622-465 | +9.3% | 52.4% | |
| NCAA baseball totals, 2026 | No games | 108-65 | +19.2% | 52.4% | |
| Total, overall premium | 27-17-2 | +15.1%† | 2,515-1,628-39 | +12.4% |
How to read this table. Records are wins-losses, with a third number for pushes where a product has any. ROI is profit divided by the units risked on decided picks, one unit per pick, computed the way each Model Performance page computes it: a push returns the stake and is left out, except on the MLB first-five moneyline, whose page counts tied games in the denominator. NFL, college football and the MLB first-five run line are graded at standard -110 juice; the MLB moneylines and full-game run line are graded at the price posted when the pick was logged. College basketball and college baseball spreads and totals are graded at -110. Break-even is the win rate needed to finish even at those prices; at -110 it is 52.4%. F5 means the first five innings and F9 the full game; the run line is plus or minus 0.5 runs on F5 and 1.5 on F9. NFL totals include the Week 4 Monday night game, played Oct. 5 after the last review published. The full-game run-line pick in this window was posted at -172; the season median is -184. †The window total is about 6.6 units won on the 44 decided picks. The season total adds each product’s units won or lost, about 516 units on roughly 4,180 picks risked, and matches the overall premium record on the Model Performance page, which combines the same products. The total’s third number counts MLB pushes only: the football, college basketball and college baseball pages report season records as wins and losses, so their pushes are not in it. Every product in the table is live: logged before the game and graded after. The season snapshot already includes the Oct. 15 ALCS Game 3 run-line result. College basketball and college baseball are between seasons, so their rows show the completed 2025-26 college basketball season and the completed 2026 college baseball season.
WNBA picks are a paper experiment, tracked without wagers until the model shows a credible edge, so they are not in the table or the totals. From Oct. 5 through Oct. 14 the paper spreads went 2-0 and the paper totals 2-0; for the season, spreads are 18-16 and totals 36-29. The WNBA model is judged on CLV, closing line value: the average number of points the market moved toward BBMI’s side between the moment the pick was logged and the closing line. Zero means the line did not move, and positive means the market moved toward BBMI. Season CLV is -0.20 points on spreads and +0.26 on totals, from picks logged since July 19.
Decided by a single play
Besides the tie in Landover, one other result turned on a single play.
Bengals at Dolphins, Bengals minus 7
BBMI had Cincinnati winning by 9.6. The Bengals led 28-10 after Ja’Marr Chase’s leaping touchdown catch with 39 seconds left in the third quarter, and 31-18 after Evan McPherson’s 22nd straight made field goal, a Bengals record. Malik Willis scored from a yard out with 45 seconds left to make it 31-24, and Riley Patterson’s extra point was no good. A made kick makes it 31-25, a six-point win, and the pick loses. The miss left the margin at exactly seven, a push. The same game cashed the over 44.5, Week 5’s only top-tier totals pick, at 55 points.
The biggest misses
Falcons at Saints, under 47.5
The last review published before Monday night’s Week 4 finale, so it counts here. BBMI projected 41.0 points for Atlanta at New Orleans, a top-tier under. The Falcons led 24-7 at halftime and won 45-24, 69 points. Bijan Robinson ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns, Brian Robinson Jr. scored three, and Atlanta tied its franchise record for rushing touchdowns in a game. At 28 points, it was the largest miss among this window’s totals picks.
Buffalo at Toledo, Toledo minus 18.5
BBMI had Toledo by 28.1, and Buffalo won 23-8, a 43.1-point miss and the largest among the window’s college football picks. Toledo converted 3 of 14 third downs, turned it over three times and was penalized 15 times for 137 yards. After the Rockets pulled within 16-8, Messiah Burch ran 87 yards for a touchdown on the next play.
LSU at Kentucky, LSU minus 9.5
BBMI had LSU by 15.7. LSU led 27-24 with 9:42 left, and Kentucky missed field goals of 42 and 26 yards in the final five minutes before Adam Zouagui tied it from 33 yards with 12 seconds left. Sam Leavitt scored first in overtime, C.J. Baxter answered with a 1-yard run, and Kenneth Minchey ran the 2-point try in untouched for a 35-34 win, Kentucky’s second straight 35-34 overtime win. The 2-point try decided the game; either way it went, LSU minus 9.5 lost.
NFL, Week 4 Monday and Week 5
Spreads went 4-2-1. Detroit covered 5.5 in a 45-21 win at Arizona, New England covered 3.5 in a 45-17 win over Las Vegas, and Philadelphia, getting 8 at Jacksonville, lost 19-17 and covered. The Giants covered in the tie, and Cincinnati pushed. The losses were Cleveland, getting 2.5 in a 17-12 loss to the Jets, and Indianapolis, getting 3 in a 34-22 loss at Pittsburgh.
Totals went 5-3, and 5-2 in Week 5. The overs in Cincinnati-Miami (55 on 44.5), Indianapolis-Pittsburgh (56 on 41.5), Giants-Commanders (54 on 41.5) and San Francisco-Seattle (61 on 47) all cashed, and Minnesota-New Orleans stayed under 41.5 at 36. Houston and Tennessee finished at 29 against an over of 37.5, with Tennessee scoring three points, and Chicago and Green Bay finished at 38 against 46.5.
For the season, spreads are 17-17 with an ROI of -4.5% and totals are 16-15 at -1.4%. Both moved closer to break-even over these 10 days. The full log is on the NFL Model Performance page.
College football, Week 6
The premium board went 12-12-1 on 25 picks, an ROI of -4.5%. The results split by side. The four underdog picks went 3-0-1: Fresno State, getting 8.5, lost 38-31 to Boise State; Louisiana, getting 3, lost 32-31 at Louisiana Tech; Hawaii, getting 21, lost 30-12 at Arizona State; and South Florida, getting 7, lost 31-24 at UTSA for a push. Favorites went 9-12, and eight of those 12 losses were favorites that lost outright, among them LSU, Florida (38-19 to South Carolina), Pittsburgh (21-17 to North Carolina) and Toledo.
The closest results went both ways. Utah, favored by 15.5, beat Kansas 41-24, and Fresno State’s 38-31 loss to Boise State covered 8.5; both picks won by a point and a half. Jacksonville State, favored by 3, won 27-26 at Kennesaw State, and Eastern Michigan, favored by 5.5, won 25-23 at Akron; both picks lost.
For the season, premium picks are 54-43, 55.7%, with an ROI of +6.3% and 6.1 units won. The full log is on the college football Model Performance page.
MLB, Division Series and ALCS
MLB went 6-0: six picks across four games, with the first-five and full-game moneylines both on two of those games. The full-game run line took Tampa Bay plus 1.5 at home against the Yankees on Oct. 5, and the Rays won 5-2 on their way to a Division Series sweep. In NLDS Game 3, with San Diego down 0-2 in the series, BBMI had the Padres at home on the first-five moneyline at -135 and the full-game moneyline at -136, the window’s only MLB Best Bet. Milwaukee outhit San Diego 11 to 6; the Padres led 3-2 after five innings and won 4-3, so both picks won by one run. Jake Cronenworth went 2-for-2 with a home run, and Milwaukee went on to win the series. The first-five moneyline also won with the White Sox at -105 on Oct. 8 (they led Cleveland 4-3 after five innings), and with Tampa Bay at -130 against Cleveland in the ALCS on Oct. 13 (3-0 after five). The full-game moneyline went 2-0, on the Padres and on the Rays’ 3-1 win over Cleveland on Oct. 13. The first-five run line logged no picks in the window.
Through Oct. 14, BBMI’s MLB picks are 16-3 in the 2026 postseason across the four products, an ROI of +47.9% at the posted prices:
| Product | Postseason record | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| MLB F5 moneyline | 7-0 | +79.6% |
| MLB F5 run line | 1-0 | +90.9% |
| MLB F9 moneyline | 5-2 | +27.6% |
| MLB F9 run line | 3-1 | +17.3% |
| Total | 16-3 | +47.9% |
Postseason records cover the Wild Card Series, the Division Series and the ALCS games through Oct. 14, with the same grading as the table above. The two losses on the full-game moneyline were Houston in Game 1 of its Wild Card series and Cleveland in Game 1 of the Division Series, both against the White Sox; the run-line loss was Philadelphia plus 1.5 in Wild Card Game 1.
All four MLB products are ahead for the season: the first-five moneyline at +3.2%, the first-five run line at +6.4%, the full-game moneyline at +6.6% and the full-game run line at +1.7%. See the MLB Model Performance page, and the Bracket Pulse page for BBMI’s playoff odds.
What BBMI does
For every game, BBMI builds its own number, a point spread, a total or a run margin, from team and player ratings and game simulations, then compares it with the betting market. When the gap clears a threshold set in advance, the model logs a pick before the game starts. The thresholds, every logged pick and every result are public on the Model Performance pages.
Each sport has its own Game Picks, Rankings and Playoff Pulse pages; start with this week’s NFL, college football and MLB picks. Longer analysis is in Research.
The next review covers the rest of the League Championship Series, NFL Week 6 and college football’s Week 7.
Prediction first. Result second.
Sources and method. Pick records, prices, edges and results were read from the BBMI Model Performance pages on Oct. 15, 2026, covering games dated Oct. 5 through Oct. 14: NFL Week 4’s Monday night game and all of Week 5, college football Week 6 (Oct. 7 to Oct. 10), and MLB from Oct. 5 to Oct. 13. Window ROI for NFL spreads and college football is the figure each page prints for the week; NFL totals add the Week 4 Monday game to the page’s Week 5 figure; window ROI for the MLB moneylines and full-game run line is computed from the prices posted with each pick, one unit risked per pick. Game details come from the linked reports. Edge is the gap between BBMI’s line and the market’s line; premium picks are those that clear each product’s published threshold. All products except the WNBA are live: logged before the game and graded after.
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