WNBA · 10,000 season simulations

Playoff Pulse.

Every remaining game simulated 10,000 times, each night after the games are final — playoff odds and the most likely bracket for all 15 teams. Part of the public paper experiment: published, tracked, and graded in the open.

SimmedAug 8
LynxBest title odds · 29.9%
SparksTightest spot · 0.8% to make it
10,000Simulations
96Games remaining

The most likely playoffs

% = higher seed’s series win odds
Top half
First Round
1Minnesota Lynx logoLynx80%
8Washington Mystics logoMystics21%
4Dallas Wings logoWings51%
5Indiana Fever logoFever49%
Finals
Projected finals
Lynx × Valkyries
most likely Finals pairing
48.8%Lynx finals odds45.6%Valkyries finals odds
Projected champion
Lynx 29.9%
Lynx 54.0% to win the series
The percentage beside a series is the higher seed’s win probability for that best-of-3 first round; the bracket assumes the projected seeding.
Bottom half
First Round
2Golden State Valkyries logoValkyries70%
7New York Liberty logoLiberty30%
3Las Vegas Aces logoAces60%
6Atlanta Dream logoDream40%

The percentage beside each first-round series is the higher seed’s probability of winning that best-of-3, across the 10,000 simulations. Seeds reflect the current projected bracket.

The full board

Proj = expected final W–L
SeedTeamRecordProjMake %Semis %Finals %Title %
1Minnesota Lynx logoLynx27–734–12100%72.8%48.8%29.9%
2Golden State Valkyries logoValkyries23–932–13100%69.5%45.6%27.2%
3Las Vegas Aces logoAces22–1131–15100%59.1%25.9%11.7%
4Dallas Wings logoWings21–1329–18100%51.6%23.2%10.1%
5Indiana Fever logoFever20–1328–18100%48.9%22.6%10.5%
6Atlanta Dream logoDream20–1328–18100%40.0%15.8%5.7%
7New York Liberty logoLiberty21–1428–20100%34.2%12.0%3.7%
8Washington Mystics logoMystics19–1326–2099%23.8%6.1%1.3%
9Los Angeles Sparks logoSparks13–1819–261%0.1%0.0%0.0%
10Phoenix Mercury logoMercury13–2118–270%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Chicago Sky logoSky12–2118–280%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Portland Fire logoFire12–2117–290%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Toronto Tempo logoTempo10–2314–320%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Connecticut Sun logoSun9–2413–330%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Seattle Storm logoStorm7–2811–350%0.0%0.0%0.0%

The line under seed 8 is the playoff cut — the top eight teams make the bracket. Green ≥ 60% make odds · red < 15%.

How the simulation works

Each night the rest of the season is played 10,000 times from the champion (knee-14) power ratings — the same ratings that drive the WNBA rankings and the experiment’s picks. Every game’s projected margin is turned into a win probability through a normal model, then the schedule is played out game by game.

When the regular season ends, the top eight teams play out the bracket: a best-of-3 first round, best-of-5 semifinals, and a best-of-7 Finals, with the higher seed hosting throughout. Make % is how often a team reaches the playoffs; Semis / Finals / Title % are how often it reaches each round. Odds move as the standings move — a hot streak or a losing week can swing a tight seed by double digits.

This is part of the public paper experiment: the numbers here are published, tracked, and graded in the open — no numbers appear before the simulation produces them.