BBMI WNBA Rankings.
Teams are ranked by BBMI — schedule/opponent-adjusted net efficiency, the projected margin against an average WNBA team on a neutral floor. It respects the record but neutralizes the schedule it was earned against. Part of the live paper experiment: published, tracked, and graded in public; no wagers placed or recommended.
How BBMI is built
BBMI is a KenPom-equivalent net rating: adjusted offense minus adjusted defense, both measured per 100 possessions and iteratively corrected for opponent strength directly from box scores until the ratings converge. Blowout margins are saturated first so garbage time can’t inflate a team. The result is schedule-neutral — a hot start against a soft slate doesn’t move it, and a cold start against a brutal one doesn’t erase it — so the table shows underlying quality, not just the record. The rank IS this net rating; the Make % and Title % columns come from simulating the rest of the season off these ratings.
| Rank | Team | BBMI | Record | L15 | Make % | Title % | AdjO | AdjD | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx | +7.04 | 28-7 | Hot12-3 | 100.0% | 29.9% | 106.1 | 99.1 | 83.8 |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries | +6.65 | 23-9 | Hot12-3 | 100.0% | 27.2% | 102.4 | 95.7 | 79.6 |
| 3 |  Indiana Fever | +4.58 | 21-13 | 10-5 | 100.0% | 10.5% | 110.9 | 106.3 | 84.8 |
| 4 |  Las Vegas Aces | +4.42 | 23-11 | 10-5 | 100.0% | 11.7% | 108.7 | 104.2 | 82.3 |
| 5 |  Dallas Wings | +4.19 | 21-13 | 8-7 | 100.0% | 10.1% | 106.0 | 101.9 | 82.8 |
| 6 |  Atlanta Dream | +2.70 | 20-13 | 7-8 | 99.9% | 5.7% | 103.5 | 100.8 | 84.1 |
| 7 |  New York Liberty | +2.10 | 21-14 | 8-7 | 99.8% | 3.7% | 106.5 | 104.5 | 82.8 |
| 8 |  Washington Mystics | −0.43 | 19-13 | 10-5 | 99.3% | 1.3% | 95.7 | 96.1 | 84.2 |
| 9 |  Chicago Sky | −2.20 | 12-21 | 8-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 102.1 | 104.3 | 85.2 |
| 10 |  Phoenix Mercury | −2.76 | 14-21 | 7-8 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 101.9 | 104.7 | 81.7 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks | −3.48 | 14-18 | 5-10 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 103.2 | 106.7 | 84.9 |
| 12 |  Seattle Storm | −4.71 | 7-28 | 3-12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98.8 | 103.5 | 83.3 |
| 13 |  Portland Fire | −5.03 | 12-21 | 5-10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.9 | 106.0 | 84.3 |
| 14 |  Toronto Tempo | −5.90 | 10-23 | Cold2-13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 102.8 | 108.7 | 84.0 |
| 15 |  Connecticut Sun | −6.81 | 9-24 | 6-9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 94.7 | 101.5 | 83.2 |
Ratings are computed nightly from game results — opponent-adjusted points per 100 possessions, with blowout margins saturated so garbage time doesn’t distort the table. L15 is the last-15-game record; Hot / Cold flags mark the league’s best and worst last-15 records. Make % and Title % come from simulating the rest of the season off these ratings. No third-party rating exists for the WNBA; this table IS the model’s view.
How the BBMI WNBA model rates teams
Nightly point-in-time efficiency. After each slate the model recomputes points scored and allowed per 100 possessions from box scores, iteratively adjusted for opponent strength until convergence — a KenPom-equivalent rating built from scratch for the WNBA. The BBMI net rating is adjusted offense minus adjusted defense: the margin those efficiencies project on a neutral floor.
Blowout control. Margins beyond 14 points are progressively discounted before they touch the ratings, so garbage time can’t inflate a team.
Margin → win probability. The same net rating drives the game-by-game margin forecasts, which convert to win probabilities and, simulated across the remaining schedule, into the Make % and Title % columns.
The ranking IS the net rating. There is no separate committee number — the table you see is the model’s ordering.
This is the same engine that prices the experiment’s spreads and totals — a live paper experiment, published, tracked, and graded in public. See the Model Accuracy tab for how it grades.