WNBA · Power Rankings

Power rankings

All 15 teams ranked by BBMI, schedule-adjusted net efficiency: the projected margin against an average WNBA team on a neutral floor. It respects the record but neutralises the schedule it was earned against.

Snapshot

Teams

Sep 22, 2026

Last update

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1	Golden State Valkyries	31-11	+7.8	.750	33–11	12-3	92.4	100.2
2	Minnesota Lynx	32-10	+6.6	.750	33–11	11-4	100.6	107.2
3	Atlanta Dream	29-14	+5.2	.659	29–15	11-4	101.2	106.4
4	Indiana Fever	27-15	+5.0	.636	28–16	10-5	107.8	112.8
5	Las Vegas Aces	29-14	+4.8	.667	30–15	10-5	104.0	108.8
6	Dallas Wings	26-17	+3.7	.600	27–18	8-7	102.1	105.8
7	New York Liberty	27-17	+3.0	.609	28–18	10-5	103.6	106.6
8	Washington Mystics	26-16	+0.9	.614	27–17	11-4	97.5	98.4
9	Phoenix Mercury	16-27	-3.0	.364	16–28	6-9	104.9	102.0
10	Chicago Sky	15-27	-3.8	.364	16–28	6-9	105.2	101.4
11	Los Angeles Sparks	16-26	-3.9	.386	17–27	6-9	106.6	102.7
12	Portland Fire	16-27	-4.6	.364	16–28	5-10	106.8	102.2
13	Seattle Storm	8-35	-6.2	.182	8–36	2-13	103.9	97.8
14	Toronto Tempo	11-31	-7.3	.273	12–32	1-14	109.7	102.4
15	Connecticut Sun	10-32	-8.2	.250	11–33	3-12	103.2	95.0

Showing 15 of 15 teamsTALENT = projected win rate · LAST 15 = record over the last 15 games

Movers

rank change vs last update

No team changed rank since the last update.

How ratings work

RATING: BBMI net efficiency: adjusted offense minus adjusted defense, per 100 possessions, corrected for opponent strength until the ratings converge. Blowout margins are saturated first so garbage time cannot inflate a team.
TALENT: A stand-in: the projected win rate from the season simulation. The WNBA model publishes no roster-based talent rating, so unlike the college football and MLB boards this is derived from the projection.
PROJ W–L: Projected final record across simulations of the remaining schedule.
LAST 15: Record over the last fifteen completed games. The artboard asks for ten; the feed publishes fifteen, and the heading says so rather than mislabelling it.
DEF / OFF RTG: Points allowed and scored per 100 possessions, opponent-adjusted. Lower is better on defense.

League note

The WNBA seeds its playoff field 1 through 8 overall rather than by conference, so there is no conference grouping to compare here.

Ratings are computed nightly from game results, opponent-adjusted points per 100 possessions, with blowout margins saturated so garbage time does not distort the table. Make % and Title % come from simulating the rest of the season off these ratings. No third-party rating exists for the WNBA; this table IS the model’s view.

How the BBMI WNBA model rates teams

Nightly point-in-time efficiency. After each slate the model recomputes points scored and allowed per 100 possessions from box scores, iteratively adjusted for opponent strength until convergence — a KenPom-equivalent rating built from scratch for the WNBA. The BBMI net rating is adjusted offense minus adjusted defense: the margin those efficiencies project on a neutral floor.

Blowout control. Margins beyond 14 points are progressively discounted before they touch the ratings, so garbage time can’t inflate a team.

Margin → win probability. The same net rating drives the game-by-game margin forecasts, which convert to win probabilities and, simulated across the remaining schedule, into the Make % and Title % columns.

The ranking IS the net rating. There is no separate committee number — the table you see is the model’s ordering.

This is the same engine that prices the experiment’s spreads and totals — a live paper experiment, published, tracked, and graded in public. See the Model Performance tab for how it grades.