The BBMI Weekly Review · Oct. 15 through Oct. 26, 2026
BBMI Weekly Review: 26-30-5, With NFL Totals at 7-2-1
NFL spreads and college football drove a 6.9-unit loss from Oct. 15 through Oct. 26. NFL totals went 7-2-1, and the MLB postseason record reached 18-5-2. Here are the results, the biggest misses and the plays behind the grades.
BBMI finished these 12 days at 26-30-5, down 6.88 units. NFL spreads went 4-9-1 and college football went 13-17-1. NFL totals were the bright spot, going 7-2-1, including a 4-0 Week 7.
Detroit supplied the most frustrating finish. Tied 17-17 with Green Bay out of timeouts, the Lions reached the Packers 3, ran down the clock and kicked a 22-yard field goal on the final play. Detroit won 20-17. BBMI had the Lions minus 3.5.
The Lions got the win they wanted; the pick lost by half a point. BBMI’s under 55.5 in the same game won with 37 points. Both grades stay in the record, along with the games the model missed by a lot more.
That is what this column is for. BBMI forecasts games in the NFL, college football, college basketball, Major League Baseball and college baseball, and runs a paper-tracked WNBA model. Every pick is logged before kickoff, tipoff or first pitch and graded from the final score, and nothing is removed from the record. Each edition goes through those results, the close finishes and the clear misses, whichever way they broke. This one covers games dated Oct. 15 through Oct. 26, following the previous installment.
The results, by product
The reported window ROI was -11.9%. The table uses each product’s published grading convention; the notes below explain how pushes affect that figure. The 6.88-unit loss is unchanged by the choice of denominator.
For the season, the overall premium record stood at 2,540-1,658-41 with a reported ROI of +12.0%. Every product except NFL spreads was positive.
Snapshot: window results cover Oct. 15-26. Season figures are frozen at the Oct. 26 close. College basketball and college baseball rows show their most recently completed seasons. Records read wins-losses-pushes where pushes are reported. F5 means the first five innings; F9 means the full game.
| Product | Oct. 15-26 | Window ROI | Season | Season ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL spreads | 4-9-1 | -41.2% | 21-26 | -14.7% |
| NFL totals | 7-2-1 | +48.6% | 23-17 | +9.8% |
| NCAAF premium ATS | 13-17-1 | -17.2% | 67-60 | +0.8% |
| MLB F5 moneyline | 0-2-2 | -50.0% | 138-91-40 | +2.4% |
| MLB F5 run line | No picks | 126-100-1 | +6.4% | |
| MLB F9 moneyline | 1-0 | +78.7% | 125-72 | +7.0% |
| MLB F9 run line | 1-0 | +49.5% | 258-140 | +1.7% |
| NCAAB spreads, 2025-26 | No games | 257-138 | +24.3% | |
| NCAAB totals, 2025-26 | No games | 795-484 | +18.7% | |
| NCAA baseball spreads, 2026 | No games | 622-465 | +9.3% | |
| NCAA baseball totals, 2026 | No games | 108-65 | +19.2% | |
| Total, overall premium | 26-30-5 | -11.9%† | 2,540-1,658-41 | +12.0% |
The season total’s 41 pushes are MLB pushes only; the other sports’ season pages report wins and losses. WNBA paper picks are tracked separately and excluded from these figures. Oct. 15 is included in this window, and that night’s ALCS Game 3 run-line win was already reflected in the previous review’s season snapshot.
The biggest misses
A few close finishes hurt. The largest losses were games BBMI had wrong well before the last play.
at
Temple minus 19.5 vs. Charlotte
BBMI projected Temple to win by 26.2. Charlotte arrived 0-6 and won 38-31 behind four Conner Harrell touchdowns, two passing and two rushing. The 33.2-point gap between the projection and the final margin was the largest spread miss in the window.
at
Georgia minus 19.5 vs. Auburn
BBMI had No. 1 Georgia by 28.0. Instead, Auburn won 27-24. Gunner Stockton fumbled with 58 seconds left, and Alex McPherson made a 34-yard field goal as time expired. That was a 31-point miss. Georgia was the second straight AP No. 1 to lose, following Texas the previous week.
at
Baltimore plus 3 vs. Cincinnati
BBMI projected a 2.1-point Ravens win. Baltimore, with Tyler Huntley starting, led 13-0 before Cincinnati scored five straight touchdowns and won 35-13. Four came on Joe Burrow passes. The 24.1-point projection error was the largest among BBMI’s NFL spread picks in the window.
at
Dallas at Green Bay, over 54
BBMI projected 59.0 points. The Packers led 17-0 at halftime and won 23-13. The 36-point finish fell 23 short of the projection, the largest totals miss in the window.
NFL: totals won, spreads lost
The spread picks went 2-5-1 in Week 6 and 2-4 in Week 7. Denver accounted for two of the four wins: plus 2.5 against Seattle and minus 4.5 at Arizona. Cleveland plus 3 against Baltimore and the Rams minus 3 at Las Vegas supplied the other two.
Several favorites lost outright. Indianapolis, laying 6.5, lost 26-20 to a previously winless Tennessee team. The Rams, laying 12.5, lost 18-16 to Arizona on Chad Ryland’s sixth field goal, as time expired. The Jets, laying 3.5, lost 28-25 to Miami.
Buffalo minus 5 was a different kind of loss. The Bills led Las Vegas 33-23 after a field goal with 1:56 left. Kirk Cousins then found Tre Tucker for a 44-yard touchdown with 1:32 left. Buffalo won 33-30, short of the cover.
Missed extra points also mattered to the final margins. Eddy Pineiro missed an extra point in San Francisco’s 23-17 win over Washington, leaving the 49ers minus 7 a loss. Andy Borregales missed early in the fourth quarter of New England’s 26-19 win over the Jets, which pushed at Patriots minus 7. One more point separates those grades from a push and a win, respectively. That arithmetic holds the rest of the scoring fixed; an earlier made kick could also change later decisions.
Totals went 3-2-1 in Week 6 and 4-0 in Week 7. The four Week 7 wins were the overs in Dolphins-Jets (53 points against 39.5), Browns-Titans (51 against 37) and Cowboys-Eagles (59 against 43.5), plus the under in Packers-Lions (37 against 55.5).
A late kick helped one Week 6 over. Tennessee led Indianapolis 23-20 with 2:03 left, leaving the over 43.5 half a point short. After a Colts turnover on downs, Joey Slye kicked a 44-yard field goal with 43 seconds left. The total finished at 46. Carolina-Philadelphia pushed at 39; the two totals losses were Bills-Raiders and Cowboys-Packers.
For the season, NFL spreads stood at 21-26 and -14.7% ROI. Totals stood at 23-17 and +9.8%. The full log is on the NFL Model Performance page.
College football: seven favorites lost outright
The premium picks went 13-17-1, down 5.17 units. Most of the damage came Oct. 16-17, a 7-13-1 stretch. On Saturday, five of the AP’s top seven teams lost.
BBMI backed seven favorites that lost outright that weekend: Texas, Georgia, Duke, Temple, Bowling Green, Pittsburgh and Memphis. Texas, laying 11.5, lost 27-24 to Florida. Memphis, laying 7, lost 31-17 at Tulane, which forced six turnovers. BBMI was laying points with each of those seven teams and needed more than a win.
One upset helped. BYU plus 10.5 beat No. 2 Notre Dame 28-24; BBMI’s projection had BYU winning by 0.1. Rutgers plus 6 at Maryland and Texas Tech minus 16.5 against Arizona State also covered.
The following week went 6-4. Arizona minus 12.5 beat Iowa State 39-3, SMU minus 18.5 beat California 59-20, and Arkansas State plus 2.5 beat Georgia State 38-32. Toledo, Delaware and Texas supplied the other wins.
Texas minus 3 held on against Ole Miss, 34-27. After Ole Miss recovered an onside kick with 1:22 left, Jelani McDonald intercepted Trinidad Chambliss in the end zone on the final play.
Tennessee plus 2.5 went the other way at South Carolina. LaNorris Sellers tied it 24-24 with 1:17 left. A sack and fumble gave South Carolina another possession, and Malik Orsan made a 48-yard field goal as time expired for a 27-24 win. TCU, Florida International and Sacramento State were the week’s other losses.
Across the full window, two more late scores affected the grades. Cincinnati plus 1.5 lost 45-42 at West Virginia on Jack Cassidy’s 35-yard field goal as time ran out. UMass plus 7 pushed in a 25-18 overtime loss at Buffalo, which tied the game on a field goal with two seconds left, then scored and made a stop in overtime.
The season record was 67-60, a 52.8% win rate and +0.8% ROI, about one unit ahead. See the college football Model Performance page for every premium pick.
MLB: two pushes, two losses, two wins
MLB finished the window 2-2-2. Tampa Bay plus 1.5 at -202 won in ALCS Game 3 despite a 3-2 loss to Cleveland. The first-five moneyline went 0-2-2.
The first push came in NLCS Game 4. BBMI had the Dodgers through five innings at -160. Los Angeles led 4-2 entering the fifth, but Milwaukee tied it with two runs, including Jake Bauers’ bases-loaded walk off Alex Vesia. The Brewers went on to win 6-4 and complete the sweep.
Cleveland’s first-five pick in ALCS Game 4 also pushed, with the score 1-1 after five. In Game 5, the Rays led 3-0 after five and won 3-1, handing BBMI’s Cleveland pick a loss. Tampa Bay eventually won the series in six.
World Series Game 2 split the Milwaukee picks. Tampa Bay scored four in the first and led 4-3 after five, so the Brewers’ first-five moneyline at -115 lost. Sal Frelick homered in the sixth to tie it, and Cooper Pratt singled home the go-ahead run in the seventh. Milwaukee won 5-4, cashing the full-game moneyline at -127.
That win needed one last out with the tying run on third. Aaron Ashby struck out Yandy Díaz on a full-count check swing to end it.
BBMI logged no MLB picks on World Series Games 1 or 3. Milwaukee won both, including 10-1 on Monday, to take a 3-0 series lead. Game 4 is Tuesday in Tampa Bay.
Through Oct. 26, the four MLB products were a combined 18-5-2 in the postseason, up 8.39 units with an ROI of +33.6%:
| Product | Postseason record | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| MLB F5 moneyline | 7-2-2 | +32.5% |
| MLB F5 run line | 1-0 | +91.0% |
| MLB F9 moneyline | 6-2 | +34.0% |
| MLB F9 run line | 4-1 | +23.8% |
| Total | 18-5-2 | +33.6% |
Postseason figures run from the Wild Card Series through World Series Game 3. Picks on the same game are listed separately, so this is a pick record rather than a count of independent games. ROI includes the two tied first-five games in the denominator.
All four MLB products remained positive for the season, ranging from +1.7% on the full-game run line to +7.0% on the full-game moneyline. Full records are on the MLB Model Performance page; playoff odds are on Bracket Pulse.
Grading and calculation notes
Each pick risks one unit. NFL and college football spreads and totals, college basketball and college baseball picks, and the MLB first-five run line use -110 grading. A win at -110 is credited 0.91 units, as on the Model Performance pages. MLB moneylines and full-game run lines use the price posted with the pick. A losing pick loses one unit; a push returns the stake.
Reported ROI follows the Model Performance pages. MLB pushes count in the stake denominator; the other products use decided picks. The window therefore uses 58 units: 56 decided picks plus two MLB pushes. The unrounded loss is 6.8776 units, giving -11.9% on that basis. Dividing by all 61 units initially staked, including the three football pushes, gives -11.3%. Both figures describe the same profit and loss.
The season total combines the products in the main table and matches the Overall premium record on the Model Performance hub in the Oct. 26 snapshot. It includes completed college basketball and college baseball seasons. Its third number counts only MLB pushes because the other season pages omit pushes from their displayed records.
At -110, the break-even win rate is 52.4%. For products priced at varying moneylines, the return depends on the mix of prices, so a single fixed break-even win rate is less useful. F5 run lines are plus or minus 0.5 runs; full-game run lines are plus or minus 1.5.
Game details are linked in the text.
What BBMI does
For every game, BBMI builds its own number, a point spread, a total or a run margin, from team and player ratings and game simulations, then compares it with the betting market. When the gap clears a threshold set in advance, the model logs a pick before the game starts. The thresholds, every logged pick and every result are public on the Model Performance pages.
Each sport has its own Game Picks, Rankings and Playoff Pulse pages; start with this week’s NFL, college football and MLB picks. Longer analysis is in Research.
Next up
The next review covers the rest of the World Series, NFL Week 8 and college football’s Week 9.
Prediction first. Result second.
Continue the series: The BBMI Weekly Review
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