Recapping the 2026 MLB Season 10 Days Before It Ends

Division	Champion or BBMI pick	Projected finish	Division status	BBMI division probability
AL East	Tampa Bay Rays	98–64	Still open	95%
AL Central	Chicago White Sox	83–79	Still open	51%
AL West	Texas Rangers	81–81	Still open	53%
NL East	Atlanta Braves	94–68	Still open	99%
NL Central	Milwaukee Brewers	101–61	Clinched	Settled
NL West	Los Angeles Dodgers	98–64	Still open	100% rounded

Seed	American League	Projected record	Postseason status
1	Tampa Bay Rays	98–64	Berth clinched; division and seed open
2	Chicago White Sox	83–79	Not clinched; 81% to qualify
3	Texas Rangers	81–81	Not clinched; 60% to qualify
4	New York Yankees	94–68	Berth clinched; division and seed open
5	Boston Red Sox	87–75	Not clinched; displayed 100% model probability
6	Cleveland Guardians	83–79	Not clinched; 81% to qualify

Seed	National League	Projected record	Postseason status
1	Milwaukee Brewers	101–61	NL Central clinched; seed open
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	98–64	Berth clinched; division and seed open
3	Atlanta Braves	94–68	Not clinched; displayed 100% model probability
4	Chicago Cubs	90–72	Not clinched; displayed 100% model probability
5	Philadelphia Phillies	89–73	Not clinched; 99% to qualify
6	San Diego Padres	88–74	Not clinched; 93% to qualify

#	Team outside our projected field	Projected record	Playoff probability
#1	Houston Astros	81–81	54%
#2	Toronto Blue Jays	81–81	20%
#3	Arizona Diamondbacks	85–77	8%
#4	Baltimore Orioles	79–83	3%

Race	BBMI selection	Model probability	Main competition
AL MVP	Yordan Alvarez, Astros	100.0%	No challenger finished first in the 500 simulations
NL MVP	Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs	97.0%	Shohei Ohtani, 3.0%
AL Cy Young	Cam Schlittler, Yankees	99.8%	Dylan Cease, 0.2%
NL Cy Young	Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers	57.4%	Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 37.2%; Chris Sale, 5.4%

#	Player	Team	BBMI leader share	Projected median BBMI runs	10th–90th percentile
#1	Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians	100.0%	36.2	31.9 – 39.7
#2	Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox	0.0%	21.9	17.5 – 24.9
#3	Chase DeLauter	Cleveland Guardians	0.0%	19.8	15.7 – 24.2
#4	Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels	0.0%	18.8	13.5 – 22.2
#5	Kevin McGonigle	Detroit Tigers	0.0%	18.7	14.6 – 23.7
#6	Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays	0.0%	17.6	15.1 – 19.3
#7	Tristan Peters	Chicago White Sox	0.0%	15.8	11.8 – 20.1
#8	Victor Mesa Jr.	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	15.1	11.1 – 20.0
#9	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	0.0%	12.7	8.0 – 17.9
#10	AJ Blubaugh	Houston Astros	0.0%	11.8	7.1 – 14.5

#	Player	Team	BBMI leader share	Projected median BBMI runs	10th–90th percentile
#1	TJ Rumfield	Colorado Rockies	90.4%	28.2	23.8 – 32.7
#2	Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers	8.8%	23.2	18.2 – 26.7
#3	Bryce Eldridge	San Francisco Giants	0.8%	17.1	13.1 – 21.5
#4	Didier Fuentes	Atlanta Braves	0.0%	18.0	14.2 – 20.5
#5	Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals	0.0%	14.6	8.0 – 19.6
#6	Brandyn Garcia	Arizona Diamondbacks	0.0%	13.7	10.9 – 15.9
#7	Esmerlyn Valdez	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.0%	13.5	9.2 – 18.7
#8	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	0.0%	13.2	8.8 – 18.2
#9	Nolan McLean	New York Mets	0.0%	13.2	9.0 – 16.8
#10	Connelly Early	Washington Nationals	0.0%	11.4	11.4 – 11.4

#	Player	Team	BBMI leader share	Projected median BBMI runs	10th–90th percentile
#1	Brent Headrick	New York Yankees	75.7%	22.4	18.9 – 24.7
#2	Louis Varland	Toronto Blue Jays	10.9%	19.4	16.0 – 21.4
#3	Josh Hader	Houston Astros	7.4%	19.0	16.0 – 21.2
#4	Bryan Baker	Tampa Bay Rays	5.6%	18.6	15.1 – 21.1
#5	Cade Smith	Cleveland Guardians	0.4%	15.7	12.7 – 17.7
#6	Garrett Whitlock	Boston Red Sox	0.0%	15.4	12.0 – 17.2
#7	Tyler Rogers	Toronto Blue Jays	0.0%	15.2	12.2 – 16.7
#8	Aroldis Chapman	Boston Red Sox	0.0%	14.4	11.7 – 16.0
#9	Tyler Wells	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	13.5	13.5 – 13.5
#10	Kevin Kelly	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	13.3	9.5 – 16.0

#	Player	Team	BBMI leader share	Projected median BBMI runs	10th–90th percentile
#1	Mason Miller	San Diego Padres	98.8%	23.3	20.5 – 25.3
#2	Yuki Matsui	San Diego Padres	0.8%	16.1	12.8 – 18.8
#3	Juan Morillo	Arizona Diamondbacks	0.4%	14.4	11.3 – 16.6
#4	Abner Uribe	Milwaukee Brewers	0.0%	16.1	13.2 – 18.1
#5	Jhoan Duran	Philadelphia Phillies	0.0%	15.7	12.7 – 17.8
#6	Robert Suarez	Atlanta Braves	0.0%	14.2	14.2 – 14.2
#7	Brandyn Garcia	Arizona Diamondbacks	0.0%	13.7	10.9 – 15.9
#8	Jonathan Loáisiga	Arizona Diamondbacks	0.0%	13.4	10.4 – 15.5
#9	Luke Weaver	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.0%	12.6	9.8 – 14.9
#10	Trevor Megill	Milwaukee Brewers	0.0%	12.4	9.6 – 14.4

#	Manager	Team	Actual record	Talent	Expected wins	Wins above Talent
#1	Kevin Cash	Tampa Bay Rays	92–59	.568	85.8	+6.2
#2	Will Venable	Chicago White Sox	77–75	.482	73.3	+3.7
#3	Craig Albernaz	Baltimore Orioles	75–78	.466	71.3	+3.7
#4	Stephen Vogt	Cleveland Guardians	78–75	.489	74.8	+3.2

#	Manager	Team	Actual record	Talent	Expected wins	Wins above Talent
#1	Pat Murphy	Milwaukee Brewers	95–57	.579	88.0	+7.0
#2	Oliver Marmol	St. Louis Cardinals	75–78	.452	69.2	+5.8
#3	Walt Weiss	Atlanta Braves	89–64	.549	84.0	+5.0

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median AVG	10th–90th percentile	502 PA
#1	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	56.8%	.307	.301 – .314	100.0%
#2	Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay Rays	39.8%	.306	.299 – .312	100.0%
#3	Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	3.4%	.296	.290 – .303	100.0%
#4	Chase DeLauter	Cleveland Guardians	0.0%	.287	.280 – .294	100.0%
#5	Riley Greene	Detroit Tigers	0.0%	.280	.274 – .287	100.0%
#6	Ceddanne Rafaela	Boston Red Sox	0.0%	.279	.273 – .285	100.0%
#7	Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City Royals	0.0%	.277	.270 – .283	100.0%
#8	Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners	0.0%	.276	.270 – .282	100.0%
#9	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	.276	.271 – .283	100.0%
#10	Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	.276	.270 – .283	100.0%

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median AVG	10th–90th percentile	502 PA
#1	Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies	78.8%	.311	.305 – .318	100.0%
#2	Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates	11.8%	.306	.306 – .306	100.0%
#3	Gabriel Moreno	Arizona Diamondbacks	6.8%	.301	.293 – .308	100.0%
#4	Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	1.2%	.300	.294 – .306	100.0%
#5	TJ Rumfield	Colorado Rockies	0.8%	.297	.291 – .304	100.0%
#6	Ty France	San Diego Padres	0.6%	.291	.283 – .300	15.0%
#7	Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies	0.0%	.297	.297 – .297	100.0%
#8	Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	0.0%	.295	.288 – .301	100.0%
#9	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	0.0%	.287	.282 – .294	100.0%
#10	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	0.0%	.287	.280 – .295	100.0%

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median HR	10th–90th percentile
#1	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	76.7%	44	42 – 46
#2	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	12.6%	41	40 – 43
#3	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	10.2%	41	39 – 43
#4	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	0.5%	38	37 – 40
#5	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	0.0%	35	33 – 36
#6	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	0.0%	33	32 – 36
#7	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	0.0%	33	31 – 35
#8	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	0.0%	33	32 – 35
#9	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	0.0%	29	27 – 30
#10	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	0.0%	28	26 – 30

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median HR	10th–90th percentile
#1	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	96.8%	48	46 – 51
#2	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	2.9%	44	42 – 46
#3	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	0.3%	41	39 – 44
#4	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	0.0%	41	39 – 43
#5	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	0.0%	39	38 – 41
#6	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	0.0%	33	31 – 35
#7	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.0%	32	30 – 34
#8	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	0.0%	32	30 – 34
#9	James Wood	Washington Nationals	0.0%	32	31 – 35
#10	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	0.0%	32	31 – 34

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median RBI	10th–90th percentile
#1	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	56.3%	106	103 – 110
#2	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	21.1%	103	99 – 108
#3	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	18.7%	104	100 – 108
#4	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	1.9%	98	95 – 102
#5	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	1.1%	95	91 – 100
#6	Jo Adell	Cleveland Guardians	0.8%	97	93 – 102
#7	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	0.1%	93	90 – 97
#8	Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	94	91 – 98
#9	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	0.0%	91	87 – 96
#10	Isaac Paredes	Houston Astros	0.0%	91	88 – 95

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median RBI	10th–90th percentile
#1	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	79.9%	116	113 – 120
#2	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	18.4%	113	109 – 117
#3	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	0.8%	106	103 – 111
#4	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	0.5%	105	102 – 109
#5	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	0.4%	103	100 – 108
#6	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	0.0%	102	99 – 107
#7	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	0.0%	102	98 – 106
#8	Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers	0.0%	98	95 – 102
#9	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.0%	92	88 – 97
#10	Daylen Lile	Washington Nationals	0.0%	92	89 – 97

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median K	10th–90th percentile
#1	Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays	82.9%	252	248 – 257
#2	Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians	17.1%	248	244 – 252
#3	Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees	0.0%	231	227 – 235
#4	Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels	0.0%	212	208 – 216
#5	Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners	0.0%	208	204 – 213
#6	Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers	0.0%	207	202 – 211
#7	Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins	0.0%	203	198 – 206
#8	Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians	0.0%	190	186 – 194
#9	MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers	0.0%	187	183 – 192
#10	Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox	0.0%	183	180 – 187

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median K	10th–90th percentile
#1	Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers	100.0%	259	255 – 264
#2	Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies	0.0%	234	230 – 239
#3	Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies	0.0%	229	225 – 233
#4	Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals	0.0%	205	201 – 209
#5	Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves	0.0%	204	200 – 208
#6	Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.0%	202	198 – 208
#7	Nolan McLean	New York Mets	0.0%	196	192 – 200
#8	Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies	0.0%	192	186 – 198
#9	Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds	0.0%	191	187 – 195
#10	Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.0%	184	180 – 188

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median SB	10th–90th percentile
#1	Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay Rays	57.4%	44	42 – 47
#2	Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City Royals	32.4%	43	42 – 46
#3	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	New York Yankees	10.2%	42	40 – 44
#4	José Ramírez	Cleveland Guardians	0.0%	35	33 – 37
#5	José Caballero	New York Yankees	0.0%	32	32 – 32
#6	Josh Naylor	Seattle Mariners	0.0%	29	28 – 31
#7	Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners	0.0%	24	23 – 26
#8	Henry Bolte	Athletics	0.0%	22	20 – 23
#9	Julio Rodríguez	Seattle Mariners	0.0%	22	21 – 24
#10	Andrés Giménez	Toronto Blue Jays	0.0%	21	20 – 23

#	Player	Team	Title share	Projected median SB	10th–90th percentile
#1	Nasim Nuñez	Washington Nationals	100.0%	46	46 – 46
#2	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	0.0%	39	37 – 41
#3	Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	0.0%	37	35 – 39
#4	Esteury Ruiz	Miami Marlins	0.0%	32	31 – 34
#5	Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	0.0%	31	30 – 33
#6	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	0.0%	29	28 – 31
#7	Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies	0.0%	29	29 – 29
#8	Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.0%	29	27 – 31
#9	David Hamilton	Milwaukee Brewers	0.0%	28	28 – 28
#10	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	0.0%	28	26 – 30

#	Player	Team	Triple Crown	AVG title share	HR title share	RBI title share
#1	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	8.0%	56.8%	12.6%	18.7%
#2	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	0.0%	76.7%	21.1%
#3	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	56.3%
#4	Chandler Simpson	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	39.8%	0.0%	0.0%
#5	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	0.0%	0.0%	10.2%	1.9%
#6	Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	0.0%	3.4%	0.0%	0.0%
—	No Winner		92.0%	–	–	–

#	Player	Team	Triple Crown	AVG title share	HR title share	RBI title share
#1	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	0.0%	0.0%	96.8%	0.0%
#2	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	79.9%
#3	Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies	0.0%	78.8%	0.0%	0.0%
#4	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.4%
#5	Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.0%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%
#6	Gabriel Moreno	Arizona Diamondbacks	0.0%	6.8%	0.0%	0.0%
#7	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%	0.8%
#8	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
—	No Winner		100.0%	–	–	–

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Recapping the 2026 MLB Season 10 Days Before It Ends

The division picks

Four teams are in and eight places remain

American League, as seeded here

National League, as seeded here

Houston is still a playoff contender

How that bracket would open

The regular season awards

MVP and Cy Young

Rookie of the Year: Messick and Rumfield

Reliever of the Year: Headrick and Miller

Manager of the Year: Kevin Cash and Pat Murphy

Statistical titles

Batting average

Home runs

RBI

Strikeouts

Stolen bases

Triple Crown

About the numbers

Related research

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Crow-Armstrong Pulls Ahead in the September MVP Update

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