BBMI MLB Power Rankings, September 11: Milwaukee Holds No. 1, Pittsburgh Jumps Six Spots, and the AL Central Tightens
Fourteen days since the August 28 installment: Milwaukee finished off the Cubs, the Dodgers won seven straight before losing Shohei Ohtani to the injured list, Pittsburgh climbed six spots, and Chicago's lead over Cleveland in the AL Central shrank to 1.5 games.
Christian Yelich kept Milwaukee alive with two outs in the ninth. Jackson Chourio followed with a two-run homer to tie the Cubs. An inning later, rookie Luis Lara singled home the winning run.
Jacob Misiorowski had struck out nine over 6 1/3 innings before the Brewers needed the comeback. The next game was less dramatic. Yelich, Chourio and William Contreras all homered, and Milwaukee completed the sweep with an 8–6 win that pushed its lead over Chicago to 10 games.
That is the baseball behind the top line of this week's board. Milwaukee remains No. 1 at .851 and owns the best record in the current BBMI snapshot at 91–56. The Dodgers remain second, but their case looks very different: seven consecutive wins, a roster that still rates far ahead of the rest of baseball, and now an injury list that includes Ohtani.
BBMI Score combines the wins already in the standings with the quality of the current roster and the schedule around it. Talent strips the record away and asks what the healthy roster itself is worth. By September, the difference between those two numbers matters more than ever.
The full board
| Rank | Team | Mv | BBMI | Talent | Record | Last 15 | FIP | OPS | Playoff | Div | Pennant | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | · | .851 | .569 | 91–56 | 10–5 | 3.86 | .744 | 99% | 99% | 26.2% | |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | · | .843 | .664 | 89–57 | 9–6 | 3.94 | .759 | 99% | 99% | 36.9% | |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | · | .816 | .567 | 87–59 | 9–6 | 4.17 | .732 | 99% | 80% | 27.3% | |
| 4 | New York Yankees | ▲1 | .806 | .572 | 84–62 | 10–5 | 3.86 | .723 | 99% | 20% | 24.4% | |
| 5 | Atlanta Braves | ▼1 | .802 | .528 | 86–61 | 9–6 | 4.20 | .717 | 99% | 94% | 9.8% | |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | ▲2 | .764 | .546 | 82–65 | 9–6 | 3.85 | .711 | 97% | 6% | 12.2% | |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | ▼1 | .764 | .525 | 82–66 | 6–9 | 4.64 | .771 | 98% | 1% | 8.4% | |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | ▼1 | .759 | .574 | 80–67 | 7–8 | 3.88 | .726 | 99% | 1% | 12.7% | |
| 9 | San Diego Padres | · | .748 | .547 | 78–68 | 7–8 | 4.20 | .703 | 62% | 1% | 3.7% | |
| 10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | · | .741 | .499 | 78–69 | 9–6 | 4.41 | .707 | 43% | 1% | 2.8% | |
| 11 | Chicago White Sox | · | .717 | .477 | 75–71 | 7–8 | 4.42 | .722 | 89% | 74% | 8.4% | |
| 12 | Toronto Blue Jays | · | .708 | .498 | 73–74 | 9–6 | 4.17 | .692 | 37% | 1% | 3.3% | |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Pirates | ▲6 | .705 | .540 | 74–74 | 10–5 | 3.92 | .732 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | Houston Astros | · | .703 | .547 | 75–72 | 9–6 | 4.48 | .724 | 89% | 86% | 14.8% | |
| 15 | Cleveland Guardians | ▼2 | .697 | .506 | 74–73 | 8–7 | 3.97 | .686 | 58% | 26% | 6.0% | |
| 16 | St. Louis Cardinals | ▲2 | .689 | .452 | 72–75 | 6–9 | 4.16 | .702 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | Texas Rangers | ▲3 | .681 | .515 | 72–75 | 6–9 | 4.15 | .717 | 20% | 12% | 2.4% | |
| 18 | Baltimore Orioles | ▼3 | .679 | .458 | 71–76 | 7–8 | 4.26 | .711 | 3% | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | Seattle Mariners | ▼3 | .673 | .558 | 69–78 | 6–9 | 4.09 | .682 | 3% | 2% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | Miami Marlins | ▼3 | .671 | .478 | 72–75 | 5–10 | 4.26 | .728 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | Minnesota Twins | · | .661 | .440 | 69–77 | 6–9 | 4.32 | .725 | 2% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | Cincinnati Reds | ▲2 | .653 | .468 | 69–77 | 7–8 | 4.64 | .705 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | New York Mets | ▲3 | .651 | .457 | 68–78 | 9–6 | 4.11 | .701 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | Detroit Tigers | ▼2 | .649 | .492 | 67–79 | 6–9 | 4.12 | .710 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | Washington Nationals | ▼2 | .642 | .454 | 67–81 | 5–10 | 4.81 | .748 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | ▼1 | .609 | .462 | 65–82 | 7–8 | 4.52 | .718 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | · | .589 | .432 | 62–85 | 8–7 | 4.17 | .716 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | Athletics | ▲2 | .562 | .413 | 59–88 | 8–7 | 4.89 | .721 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | Los Angeles Angels | ▼1 | .548 | .407 | 56–90 | 4–11 | 4.42 | .681 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies | ▼1 | .540 | .409 | 55–91 | 5–10 | 5.04 | .736 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
Mv is movement against the August 28 Power Rankings installment, not the intervening daily boards. Rank, BBMI, Talent, record, Last 15, FIP and OPS come from the latest BBMI rankings snapshot; Playoff, Div and Pennant come from the latest available Playoff Pulse. The two products update on separate cycles. Pennant is the share of simulations in which a team reaches the World Series. Talent bars run from .395 to .680 on a common scale. Probabilities below the display floor show as 1% and 0.1%.
Milwaukee still has the wins. Los Angeles still has the roster.
The Brewers did not need the model to tell them what the Cubs series meant. They entered it with control of the Central and left with a 10-game lead. Chourio drove both of the biggest games, first with the ninth-inning homer that forced extras and then with three hits in the series finale. Yelich and Contreras supplied the rest of the power.
Milwaukee has moved only slightly since August 28, from .847 to .851, because there was not much room to climb. The Brewers already had the best record in baseball. Their current 3.86 FIP is tied with the Yankees for the lowest figure on the rankings board.
Los Angeles spent the same stretch piling up wins. Yoshinobu Yamamoto struck out 10 in seven innings as the Dodgers finished a three-game sweep of Cincinnati with a 14–1 win. Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker, Max Muncy and Enrique Hernández all homered in the finale. Tarik Skubal had gone 7 1/3 innings the night before in the Dodgers' sixth straight win.
The complication is Ohtani. Los Angeles placed him on the 15-day injured list with left knee and right biceps issues after he missed six of seven starts. Freddie Freeman has also been dealing with right knee soreness, although the club has said an injured-list stint is not expected for him.
Even with those injuries, the Dodgers' Talent rating is .664. Boston is next at .574, a 90-point gap. Los Angeles also leads the Pulse at 36.9% to win the National League pennant, up from 31.6% in the August 28 installment. Milwaukee is at 26.2%.
The ranking still favors what Milwaukee has already banked. The postseason simulation still favors what Los Angeles can put on the field in October.
Tampa Bay keeps winning, and Aaron Judge is back
Tampa Bay went into Atlanta and won two of three from the Braves. Griffin Jax allowed one run over five innings in the second win after returning from an elbow injury, while Victor Mesa Jr. homered and the Rays scored seven runs for the second straight night.
That keeps Tampa Bay third at .816. The Rays lead the Yankees by three games in the latest Pulse standings and are favored at 80% to win the AL East. Their pennant probability sits at 27.3%.
New York has a more important development than its one-place rise on the board. Aaron Judge returned after 100 days on the injured list with a rib stress fracture. In the same game, Cam Schlittler struck out 10 over seven innings and allowed one run in a 5–3 win over Colorado.
The Yankees are now fourth at .806 and 84–62. BBMI gives them a 24.4% chance to reach the World Series, not far behind Tampa Bay despite the three-game gap in the division.
Pittsburgh has finally turned good baseball into wins
Jared Jones gave the Pirates seven innings of one-hit baseball against the White Sox on September 10. Oneil Cruz went 3-for-4, homered and drove in both runs in a 2–0 win that finished a three-game sweep. Pittsburgh had already scored nine runs on 18 hits in the opener behind Bubba Chandler, who struck out eight over six innings.
The run ended with a 12–2 loss at Wrigley, leaving Pittsburgh 74–74, but the larger move remains: 19th on August 28 to 13th now, the largest rise on the board over that interval.
Interestingly, the rise has not come from a higher Talent rating. Pittsburgh was at .558 on August 28 and is at .540 now. The difference is in the win column. Jones, Chandler, Cruz, Konnor Griffin and the current lineup have produced a 10–5 stretch while the rating has become slightly less optimistic about the underlying roster.
The 1% playoff number looks strange beside a .500 record until the wild-card standings are added. Pittsburgh entered this stretch roughly five games behind San Diego for the final National League wild card with only about two weeks left in the regular season. The Pulse is not saying Pittsburgh is a 1% team. It is saying Pittsburgh is running out of schedule.
Pittsburgh helped turn the AL Central into the closest race
Chicago's problem is not theoretical. The White Sox just lost three straight at home to Pittsburgh and six of eight overall. Jones shut them down in the finale, one night after Griffin delivered the decisive two-run single in another Pirates win.
Cleveland has been close enough to take advantage. Earlier in the week, Travis Bazzana hit a three-run homer in a 9–5 win over Baltimore. Before that came a four-game sweep of Detroit that included three walk-off victories, with Bazzana delivering one of them in the 10th inning.
The result is a 1.5-game race. Chicago is 75–71 in the latest Pulse snapshot; Cleveland is 74–73. The White Sox remain favored, 74% to 26%, but the AL Central is now the closest division race on the page.
Neither club looks overpowering by the roster metric. Chicago's Talent rating is .477 and Cleveland's is .506. In September, that matters less than the fact that one bad series has made the division competitive again.
Seattle won the Texas series, but the damage came earlier
Julio Rodríguez gave Seattle one of its better wins of September by turning a 3–0 deficit against Texas into a 4–3 victory with a three-run homer in the seventh. Logan Gilbert struck out 11 over seven innings, and the Mariners took two of three from the Rangers despite Jacob deGrom throwing six scoreless innings in the finale.
That series does not erase the two weeks that came before it. Seattle was 16th on August 28 and is 19th now, tied with Baltimore and Miami for the largest drop in rank over the interval. Its BBMI Score fell from .692 to .673.
The roster itself still grades well at .558 Talent, higher than it did in the August 28 article. The standings did not cooperate. Houston now has an 86% chance to win the West, Texas is at 12% and Seattle is down to 2%. The Mariners are six games behind Houston in the current Pulse snapshot.
Philadelphia gets Atlanta next
Kyle Schwarber put Philadelphia back within three games of Atlanta with his 44th home run, a grand slam in an 11–7 win over Houston. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner each drove in two runs. The next game went the other direction when Cam Smith homered off Jhoan Durán in the ninth and Houston won 2–1.
That leaves Philadelphia 82–65 on the board, four games behind Atlanta heading into a series between the two clubs. The Phillies have moved from eighth to sixth since August 28. Atlanta remains fifth.
The Pulse strongly favors Atlanta to win the division, 94% to 6%. The postseason probabilities are less lopsided: Philadelphia reaches the World Series in 12.2% of simulations, compared with 9.8% for Atlanta.
That is not a prediction that Philadelphia will catch Atlanta. It is the distinction between the race to get into October and the team the simulation prefers once the bracket starts.
A few more moves worth watching
The Mets have made the biggest BBMI Score gain since August 28, from .621 to .651. Francisco Lindor homered as New York completed a sweep of Miami in a 15–14 game that included an 8–0 Mets lead, a Miami comeback and six more New York runs in the seventh. The Mets are 9–6 over their last 15 and have moved from 26th to 23rd. Their postseason odds remain at 1%.
Texas has moved up three ranking spots, from 20th to 17th, without getting hot. The Rangers are 6–9 over their last 15 and just lost two of three in Seattle. They remain the only AL West challenger the Pulse gives a double-digit division chance, at 12%.
Boston has slipped one place to eighth even though its Talent rating has risen to .574. That is second on the current board, behind only Los Angeles. The Red Sox remain 99% to make the playoffs, but Tampa Bay's lead leaves Boston at 1% to win the East.
What October looks like now
The division leaders in the latest Pulse are Tampa Bay in the AL East, Chicago in the AL Central, Houston in the AL West, Atlanta in the NL East, Milwaukee in the NL Central and Los Angeles in the NL West. Milwaukee and Los Angeles are both at 99% to win their divisions; Atlanta is at 94%; Houston is at 86%; Tampa Bay is at 80%; Chicago is at 74%.
The most likely World Series pairing is Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. The Dodgers reach the World Series in 36.9% of simulations, followed by Tampa Bay at 27.3%, Milwaukee at 26.2% and the Yankees at 24.4%.
The more immediate races are lower down the bracket. Cleveland is 1.5 games behind Chicago. Texas is three behind Houston. Arizona sits almost even with San Diego around the final National League wild-card position. Pittsburgh has played well enough to reach .500, but not early enough to create much room for error.
The bottom line
Milwaukee spent the last two weeks beating the team that was supposed to make the Central interesting. Chourio, Yelich, Contreras and Misiorowski helped turn a division race into a 10-game lead, and the Brewers remain first.
Los Angeles responded with seven straight wins behind Yamamoto, Skubal, Betts and a deep lineup, even while Ohtani's health became the biggest concern on the roster. The Dodgers remain second in the rankings and first in the postseason simulation.
Pittsburgh is the biggest mover, up six spots after finally stacking wins behind Jones, Chandler and Cruz. Seattle moved the other way despite a roster that still grades well. In the American League Central, three Pittsburgh wins over Chicago helped Cleveland get within 1.5 games.
There are not many games left for the standings to change shape. There are enough for one bad week to change who gets to October.
How BBMI ranks the teams
BBMI Score starts with wins already banked and projects the remaining schedule from current full-strength roster talent, then corrects for strength of schedule.
The separate Talent rating is record-neutral. It measures the underlying quality of a fully healthy roster and counts short-term-injured regulars as returning rather than treating every temporary absence as permanent.
The Playoff Pulse is separate. Every remaining game and the full postseason bracket are simulated 10,000 times. Playoff % is how often a club reaches October. Pennant % is how often it reaches the World Series.
Data: BBMI MLB Power Rankings, latest available board; BBMI Playoff Pulse, latest available 10,000-season simulation. Movement is measured against the August 28 Power Rankings installment. Rankings and Pulse update separately, so their snapshots may not carry identical timestamps. The live boards are at MLB Power Rankings and Playoff Odds & Bracket Pulse; both move daily and will drift from this snapshot.
Disclosure: Independent sports analytics and model projections for informational purposes only. Rankings, forecasts and probabilities are model outputs, not financial or betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.