Continue the series: 2026 MLB Award Races
Crow-Armstrong Pulls Ahead in the September MVP Update
September 16: Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the NL value model at 97.0%, up from 66.2%. Yordan Alvarez again finishes first in all 500 AL simulations. Updated batting, pitching and Statcast fielding inputs; the same player-value framework.
Yordan Alvarez 100.0% AL · Pete Crow-Armstrong 97.0% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · Cy YoungSchlittler Pulls Clear; Misiorowski and Yamamoto Lead the NL Race
September 16: Cam Schlittler leads the AL runs-saved model at 99.8%. Jacob Misiorowski leads the NL at 57.4%, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 37.2% and Chris Sale at 5.4%. Updated inputs, 500 simulated finishes.
Cam Schlittler 99.8% AL · Jacob Misiorowski 57.4% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · MVPCrow-Armstrong Has Caught Ohtani in BBMI's NL MVP Model
Eleven days ago Shohei Ohtani won the National League in 498 of 500 BBMI simulations. Pete Crow-Armstrong now leads 331 to 169, after a six-homer stretch, an Ohtani cold spell and the addition of Statcast defense to the value board. The margin is 3.1 runs — and on the same September 2 data with defense removed, Ohtani still wins 494 of 500. A player-value projection, not a forecast of the writers' vote.
Crow-Armstrong 66.2% NL · Alvarez 100.0% AL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · MVPThe 2026 MVP Races, Updated: Two Runaways and the Case for Doubting Them
Six weeks after the break the model reads both leagues as coronations: Yordan Alvarez wins the AL value crown in 500 of 500 simulated finishes, Shohei Ohtani the NL in 498 of 500. But Alvarez watched both challengers land on the 60-day injured list, and Ohtani has not pitched since July 3 — strip the arm out and his lead over James Wood is under three runs. Every July call graded.
Alvarez 100.0% AL · Ohtani 99.6% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · Cy YoungThe 2026 Cy Young Races, Updated: Both Favorites Got Stronger
At the break the model had Cam Schlittler at 61% and Jacob Misiorowski at 47%. Six weeks later both are further ahead, at 72.6% and 61.6%, and both got there the same way: by pitching well enough that the regression built into their projections never arrived. Plus the July regression calls, graded — including the one the model still refuses to concede.
Schlittler 72.6% AL · Misiorowski 61.6% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · MVPThe 2026 MVP Races at the Break — Value, Not Just Numbers
MVP is value, not just numbers. The model reads the AL as a two-man race between Yordan Alvarez (56.5%) and Nick Kurtz (35.5%) — with Aaron Judge the most underrated bat in the league — while the NL is Shohei Ohtani's near-lock at 95%, a two-way case a great bat can't match. A luck board flags who the second half is about to correct.
Alvarez 56.5% AL · Ohtani 95% NL · 500 simulated seasonsAwards · Cy YoungThe 2026 Cy Young Races at the Break — Reading the Real Leaders
BBMI grades the Cy Young on earned runs saved. The model has one runaway AL favorite in Cam Schlittler (61%) and a new NL frontrunner in Jacob Misiorowski (47%) — plus a regression board that separates the real leaders from the ERAs the second half is about to correct.
Schlittler 61% AL · Misiorowski 47% NL · 500 simulated seasonsRelated research
BBMI MLB Power Rankings, September 11: Milwaukee Holds No. 1, Pittsburgh Jumps Six Spots, and the AL Central Tightens
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with fourteen days of movement since the August 28 board. Milwaukee banked the wins and keeps the top line, Los Angeles owns the Talent column by 90 points and the pennant simulation at 36.9%, and Pittsburgh is the board's largest riser.
Brewers .851 · Dodgers .664 talent · Pirates ▲6 · AL Central 1.5 GBMLB · Power RankingsBBMI MLB Power Rankings, August 28: Milwaukee Keeps Winning, Atlanta Sweeps L.A., and the AL West Refuses to Cooperate
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with nine days of movement since the August 19 board. The Braves swept the best roster in baseball, Cleveland climbed eight spots on the nineteenth-rated roster, and the three clubs in the tightest division in the sport have five games left against each other.
Brewers .847 · Dodgers .661 talent · Guardians ▲8 · Royals 12–3 in last 15MLB · Power RankingsBBMI MLB Power Rankings, August 19: Milwaukee Holds No. 1, and the Central Comes Down to Seven Games
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with twelve days of movement since the August 7 board and the changes worth explaining. The Brewers and the Cubs play each other seven more times. Houston and Texas, a game apart, never play each other again.
Brewers .827 · Dodgers 37.0% NL · Blue Jays ▲7 · Mets 11–4 in last 15See it live
This is the “we show our work” side. The Prediction Record is the other half — every call locked before the game and graded in public.