NFL · GAME PICKS

Week 7 board

Spreads and totals are the NFL products, both priced against the posted market lines. A game whose edge does not clear a product's floor shows the two numbers and no pick.

Games this week

Spreads picks

Totals picks

2–3

Picks this week · 0 covering

NE @ CHI

Drake Maye (NE) v Caleb Williams (CHI)

Kickoff: 60°F · Wind 5 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 22, 7:15 PM CDT

Clear

Forecast hour: Oct 22, 7:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 22, 2:46 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 22, 6:05 PM CDT

FINAL

24–30

NE +0.6

Vegas NE +3.0

Spreads

NE +3.0PREMIUM

BBMI Loss

+2.43

Game breakdowngenerated Thu 7:08 PM CT; refreshed Thu 7:08 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
NE	60.4	5.7	223.0	123.9	19.7	2.1	1.0
CHI	62.9	6.0	233.2	144.7	21.6	1.5	1.0

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

QBDrake Mayeexpected starterProjected PPR: 17.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	243.8	223.8
Passing TD	1.8	1.5
Attempts	30.5	30.5
Completions	19.5	20.4
Rushing yds	1.3	28.7
Rushing TD	0.2	0.2
INT	1.2	0.6

RB1Rhamondre StevensonProjected PPR: 12.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	11.8	9.2
Rushing yds	43.8	38.4
Receptions	2.5	2.9
Receiving yds	18.5	26.9
Rushing TD	0.3	0.4
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

RB2TreVeyon HendersonProjected PPR: 8.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	9.8	7.6
Rushing yds	38.8	33.4
Receptions	0.6	1.5
Receiving yds	6.2	11.4
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1A.J. BrownProjected PPR: 14.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.0	8.4
Receptions	3.0	5.4
Receiving yds	26.5	62.0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.4

WR2DeMario DouglasProjected PPR: 8.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.0	4.4
Receptions	3.3	3.0
Receiving yds	38.8	35.5
Receiving TD	0.5	0.3

TE1Hunter HenryProjected PPR: 9.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.0	4.7
Receptions	3.2	3.4
Receiving yds	37.5	38.7
Receiving TD	0.3	0.3

CHI

QBCaleb Williamsexpected starterProjected PPR: 19.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	237.3	249.1
Passing TD	1.0	1.8
Attempts	30.3	32.1
Completions	22.0	21.8
Rushing yds	7.7	25.9
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2
INT	0.3	0.6

RB1D'Andre SwiftProjected PPR: 19.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	15.7	19.1
Rushing yds	66.3	87.9
Receptions	3.0	2.5
Receiving yds	23.3	23.1
Rushing TD	1.0	0.9
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

RB2Roschon JohnsonProjected PPR: 6.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	7.3	5.5
Rushing yds	24.3	23.5
Receptions	2.7	1.3
Receiving yds	25.0	12.0
Rushing TD	0.3	0.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Rome OdunzeProjected PPR: 10.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.5	5.9
Receptions	3.3	3.4
Receiving yds	52.0	46.0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.4

WR2Luther Burden IIIProjected PPR: 11.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.2	5.7
Receptions	5.2	4.2
Receiving yds	60.2	51.9
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3

TE1Colston LovelandProjected PPR: 10.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.0	5.1
Receptions	3.2	3.6
Receiving yds	29.2	41.1
Receiving TD	0.2	0.4

3. Assumptions and methodology

We simulate each game 4,000 times, play by play, using league play results from this season and historical, adjusted for each team's play-calling tendency. Each player's share of carries and targets comes from his usage this season, with last season counted at a lower weight, and a quarterback's passing line is scaled to his own pass volume. When a player is ruled out, his carries go to teammates at his position and his targets are spread across the offense. Players ruled out on the injury report or not active on the roster are removed. Projected numbers are averages across the simulations. Team passing yards are net of sacks; a quarterback's are not.

Fantasy points: 1 per reception; 1 per 25 passing yards; 4 per passing TD; 1 per 10 rushing/receiving yards; 6 per rushing/receiving TD; -2 per interception or lost fumble. Calculated from unrounded projections. Excludes two-point conversions, return/recovery TDs and bonuses, which are not modeled for individual players.

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Thu 7:07 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

PIT @ NO

Priced, no pick

Aaron Rodgers (PIT) v Tyler Shough (NO) · at Paris · neutral site (no home edge)

Kickoff: 60°F · Wind 16 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 8:30 AM CDT

Gusts: 32 mph

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 8:00 AM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: Open-Meteo

Saved: Oct 25, 7:05 AM CDT

FINAL

16–10

PIT -1.7

Vegas PIT -3.0

No pick

+1.26

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 8:28 AM CT; refreshed Sun 8:28 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
PIT	63.3	5.4	225.4	117.0	19.0	2.2	1.2
NO	62.1	5.1	203.1	112.9	17.6	2.5	1.3

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

PIT

QBAaron Rodgersexpected starterProjected PPR: 14.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	247.8	241.8
Passing TD	2.0	1.5
Attempts	38.8	35.0
Completions	23.8	22.5
Rushing yds	0.0	4.1
Rushing TD	0.0	0.0
INT	0.8	0.7

RB1Jaylen WarrenProjected PPR: 15.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	14.0	12.7
Rushing yds	76.7	55.9
Receptions	3.5	3.4
Receiving yds	43.0	32.5
Rushing TD	0.2	0.4
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1

RB2Rico DowdleProjected PPR: 10.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	7.3	9.6
Rushing yds	25.7	40.4
Receptions	2.3	2.4
Receiving yds	12.3	19.5
Rushing TD	0.0	0.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1DK MetcalfProjected PPR: 14.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	8.7	8.8
Receptions	5.0	5.0
Receiving yds	53.0	63.6
Receiving TD	0.2	0.4

WR2Germie BernardProjected PPR: 11.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.4	6.6
Receptions	4.8	4.5
Receiving yds	45.4	48.0
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3

TE1Darnell WashingtonProjected PPR: 7.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	3.7	4.2
Receptions	2.5	2.9
Receiving yds	26.0	31.5
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2

QBTyler Shoughexpected starterProjected PPR: 14.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	240.5	229.0
Passing TD	2.0	1.3
Attempts	39.2	35.2
Completions	25.5	21.8
Rushing yds	2.8	17.7
Rushing TD	0.3	0.1
INT	0.8	0.9

RB1Alvin KamaraProjected PPR: 9.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	7.0	9.9
Rushing yds	24.0	40.4
Receptions	3.0	2.6
Receiving yds	15.2	18.0
Rushing TD	0.4	0.2
Receiving TD	0.2	0.0

RB2Kendre MillerProjected PPR: 7.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	9.8	8.8
Rushing yds	30.6	36.9
Receptions	1.2	1.0
Receiving yds	3.0	6.7
Rushing TD	0.4	0.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Chris OlaveProjected PPR: 14.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	10.2	8.9
Receptions	7.2	5.6
Receiving yds	96.7	68.4
Receiving TD	0.3	0.4

WR2Devaughn VeleProjected PPR: 8.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.2	5.3
Receptions	4.7	3.2
Receiving yds	49.0	36.8
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2

TE1Juwan JohnsonProjected PPR: 9.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.7	5.2
Receptions	4.2	3.7
Receiving yds	41.3	40.5
Receiving TD	0.5	0.2

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 8:27 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

MIA @ NYJ

Malik Willis (MIA) v Geno Smith (NYJ)

Kickoff: 65°F · Wind 2 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 8:08 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

28–25

NYJ -6.7

Vegas NYJ -3.5

Spreads

NYJ -3.5PREMIUMFREE

BBMI Loss

+3.19

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 11:58 AM CT; refreshed Sun 11:58 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
MIA	60.4	4.8	169.2	122.6	16.6	3.0	1.3
NYJ	62.1	5.2	195.9	125.3	18.6	3.2	1.2

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

MIA

QBMalik Willisexpected starterProjected PPR: 13.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	169.8	177.2
Passing TD	0.4	0.9
Attempts	26.0	28.0
Completions	14.6	17.3
Rushing yds	3.8	37.5
Rushing TD	0.2	0.2
INT	0.8	0.8

RB1Ollie Gordon IIProjected PPR: 9.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	11.8	12.3
Rushing yds	59.0	47.5
Receptions	1.3	1.7
Receiving yds	3.5	10.6
Rushing TD	0.8	0.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

RB2Jaylen WrightProjected PPR: 4.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	3.5	8.0
Rushing yds	7.0	30.5
Receptions	0.0	0.4
Receiving yds	0.0	3.5
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Malik WashingtonProjected PPR: 9.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.2	5.7
Receptions	4.6	3.9
Receiving yds	52.4	35.7
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

WR2Caleb DouglasProjected PPR: 8.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.0	4.6
Receptions	3.5	3.0
Receiving yds	56.5	37.5
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

TE1Greg DulcichProjected PPR: 7.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.3	4.1
Receptions	3.3	3.1
Receiving yds	31.8	33.0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

NYJ

QBGeno Smithexpected starterProjected PPR: 13.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	222.7	210.4
Passing TD	1.2	1.2
Attempts	29.5	30.2
Completions	20.3	19.4
Rushing yds	0.7	9.2
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
INT	0.2	0.7

RB1Breece HallProjected PPR: 11.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	17.0	13.5
Rushing yds	54.3	57.0
Receptions	3.3	1.7
Receiving yds	34.0	16.9
Rushing TD	0.3	0.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

RB2Braelon AllenProjected PPR: 7.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	12.3	9.2
Rushing yds	52.3	39.8
Receptions	1.5	1.1
Receiving yds	7.5	8.1
Rushing TD	0.3	0.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Garrett WilsonProjected PPR: 11.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	8.0	6.4
Receptions	5.8	4.2
Receiving yds	69.7	49.8
Receiving TD	0.5	0.4

WR2Adonai MitchellProjected PPR: 5.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.5	4.0
Receptions	4.5	2.0
Receiving yds	61.5	25.5
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

TE1Mason TaylorProjected PPR: 5.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.0	3.7
Receptions	3.0	2.6
Receiving yds	18.3	23.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 11:57 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

CIN @ BAL

Joe Burrow (CIN) v Tyler Huntley (BAL)

Kickoff: 62°F · Wind 2 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 9:52 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

35–13

BAL -2.1

Vegas BAL +3.0

Spreads

BAL +3.0PREMIUM

BBMI Loss

+5.10

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 10:58 AM CT; refreshed Sun 10:58 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
CIN	62.1	5.8	243.9	114.5	20.0	1.8	1.1
BAL	61.7	5.3	201.5	127.0	19.0	2.6	1.2

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

CIN

QBJoe Burrowexpected starterProjected PPR: 17.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	272.2	264.1
Passing TD	2.2	1.8
Attempts	37.8	35.6
Completions	27.0	23.9
Rushing yds	3.4	10.3
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
INT	0.6	0.7

RB1Chase BrownProjected PPR: 16.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	14.2	16.1
Rushing yds	49.2	67.9
Receptions	4.8	3.4
Receiving yds	24.8	26.2
Rushing TD	0.2	0.5
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

RB2Samaje PerineProjected PPR: 6.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	5.4	6.8
Rushing yds	22.0	29.1
Receptions	1.4	1.1
Receiving yds	12.2	9.1
Rushing TD	0.0	0.3
Receiving TD	0.2	0.0

WR1Ja'Marr ChaseProjected PPR: 15.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.6	8.6
Receptions	5.4	6.0
Receiving yds	57.8	68.9
Receiving TD	0.8	0.4

WR2Tee HigginsProjected PPR: 13.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	8.6	6.6
Receptions	5.4	4.2
Receiving yds	84.6	58.8
Receiving TD	0.2	0.5

TE1Mike GesickiProjected PPR: 7.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.3	3.6
Receptions	3.0	2.6
Receiving yds	39.8	29.9
Receiving TD	1.0	0.3

BAL

QBTyler Huntleyexpected starterProjected PPR: 15.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	143.0	211.1
Passing TD	1.0	1.3
Attempts	24.0	30.5
Completions	17.0	19.7
Rushing yds	9.0	29.5
Rushing TD	0.3	0.2
INT	0.0	0.7

RB1Derrick HenryProjected PPR: 14.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	21.7	19.4
Rushing yds	89.0	81.5
Receptions	1.5	1.3
Receiving yds	10.7	11.0
Rushing TD	1.2	0.6
Receiving TD	0.2	0.0

RB2Justice HillProjected PPR: 5.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	3.0	2.6
Rushing yds	22.2	11.6
Receptions	1.7	1.8
Receiving yds	9.7	14.6
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Zay FlowersProjected PPR: 14.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	8.4	7.7
Receptions	6.4	5.5
Receiving yds	94.2	66.7
Receiving TD	0.4	0.3

WR2Ja'Kobi LaneProjected PPR: 5.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.0	3.8
Receptions	2.5	2.3
Receiving yds	25.5	25.9
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

TE1Mark AndrewsProjected PPR: 7.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.5	4.6
Receptions	3.8	3.1
Receiving yds	30.2	27.6
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 10:57 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

CLE @ TEN

Priced, no pick

Deshaun Watson (CLE) v Cam Ward (TEN)

Kickoff: 72°F · Wind 0 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 5:16 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

27–24

CLE -2.6

Vegas CLE -2.0

No pick

+0.65

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 11:38 AM CT; refreshed Sun 11:38 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
CLE	62.1	4.8	172.9	124.6	16.9	3.6	1.3
TEN	60.9	4.7	176.6	109.0	16.2	3.3	1.5

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

CLE

QBDeshaun Watsonexpected starterProjected PPR: 13.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	195.7	192.7
Passing TD	1.2	1.0
Attempts	29.0	29.6
Completions	18.5	18.5
Rushing yds	5.5	32.0
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2
INT	0.3	0.8

RB1Quinshon JudkinsProjected PPR: 11.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	14.6	13.1
Rushing yds	44.2	48.9
Receptions	3.6	2.7
Receiving yds	20.4	19.0
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

RB2Audric EstiméProjected PPR: 5.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	9.0	6.1
Rushing yds	19.0	24.4
Receptions	0.0	1.1
Receiving yds	0.0	8.9
Rushing TD	1.0	0.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Denzel BostonProjected PPR: 9.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.7	5.3
Receptions	2.8	3.1
Receiving yds	57.5	45.3
Receiving TD	0.5	0.3

WR2KC ConcepcionProjected PPR: 7.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.8	5.0
Receptions	3.7	3.3
Receiving yds	31.0	32.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

TE1Harold Fannin Jr.Projected PPR: 8.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.0	5.0
Receptions	3.2	3.5
Receiving yds	27.7	34.2
Receiving TD	0.5	0.3

TEN

QBCam Wardexpected starterProjected PPR: 11.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	166.3	196.6
Passing TD	0.7	1.0
Attempts	29.5	31.8
Completions	18.2	19.2
Rushing yds	1.2	11.8
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
INT	0.7	1.1

RB1Tony PollardProjected PPR: 9.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	14.5	13.9
Rushing yds	58.2	55.7
Receptions	1.3	1.4
Receiving yds	4.0	9.4
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

RB2Tyjae SpearsProjected PPR: 5.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	3.0	3.8
Rushing yds	11.0	14.5
Receptions	2.5	2.1
Receiving yds	12.5	14.5
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Carnell TateProjected PPR: 10.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.3	6.5
Receptions	4.8	4.0
Receiving yds	57.3	47.1
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2

WR2Wan'Dale RobinsonProjected PPR: 9.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.2	6.1
Receptions	4.2	3.8
Receiving yds	33.0	41.1
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2

TE1Gunnar HelmProjected PPR: 3.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	2.6	2.4
Receptions	1.8	1.7
Receiving yds	12.0	15.1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 11:37 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

NYG @ HOU

Priced, no pick

McCarthy (NYG) v Stroud (HOU)

Kickoff: 78°F · Wind 10 mph · Precip 0% · Roof TBD

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast; the retractable roof status is not yet confirmed.

Partly Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 7:20 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

27–21

HOU -7.4

Vegas HOU -10.0

No pick

+2.62

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 11:58 AM CT; refreshed Sun 11:58 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
NYG	59.3	4.6	174.5	100.3	15.5	3.3	1.5
HOU	64.7	5.7	227.0	140.0	20.6	1.8	1.1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

NYG

QBJ.J. McCarthyexpected starterProjected PPR: 10.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	121.5	176.8
Passing TD	0.5	0.9
Attempts	10.5	29.2
Completions	5.5	17.5
Rushing yds	0.0	19.1
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
INT	0.5	0.9

RB1Cam SkatteboProjected PPR: 9.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	16.2	10.3
Rushing yds	58.8	39.6
Receptions	2.0	2.2
Receiving yds	15.8	17.1
Rushing TD	0.2	0.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

RB2Tyrone Tracy Jr.Projected PPR: 5.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	2.6	5.4
Rushing yds	8.0	21.5
Receptions	0.8	1.4
Receiving yds	10.4	11.0
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
Receiving TD	0.2	0.0

WR1Malik NabersProjected PPR: 11.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	10.2	8.0
Receptions	6.8	4.8
Receiving yds	82.3	55.3
Receiving TD	0.3	0.3

WR2Malachi FieldsProjected PPR: 4.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.2	3.5
Receptions	2.0	1.9
Receiving yds	27.5	22.0
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1

TE1Isaiah LikelyProjected PPR: 9.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	9.8	6.1
Receptions	6.5	4.2
Receiving yds	63.8	39.5
Receiving TD	0.8	0.2

HOU

QBC.J. Stroudexpected starterProjected PPR: 17.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	285.7	244.2
Passing TD	1.5	1.7
Attempts	36.5	33.5
Completions	23.8	22.1
Rushing yds	1.5	14.8
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
INT	0.2	0.7

RB1Woody MarksProjected PPR: 17.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	9.7	22.2
Rushing yds	34.2	96.9
Receptions	2.2	1.8
Receiving yds	13.2	15.5
Rushing TD	0.3	0.6
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

RB2Dare OgunbowaleProjected PPR: 3.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	1.2	3.5
Rushing yds	2.8	15.7
Receptions	1.1	0.3
Receiving yds	8.4	2.3
Rushing TD	0.1	0.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Nico CollinsProjected PPR: 12.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.5	6.6
Receptions	5.5	4.3
Receiving yds	80.8	54.7
Receiving TD	0.8	0.4

WR2Marvin Harrison Jr.Projected PPR: 6.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	3.4	3.9
Receptions	1.6	2.3
Receiving yds	23.8	28.6
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2

TE1Dalton SchultzProjected PPR: 8.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.2	5.2
Receptions	4.7	4.0
Receiving yds	46.2	38.0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 11:57 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

IND @ MIN

Priced, no pick

Daniel Jones (IND) v Kyler Murray (MIN)

Kickoff: Indoors

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast does not apply to a closed-roof game.

FINAL

10–16

MIN -5.2

Vegas MIN -7.0

No pick

+1.82

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 11:58 AM CT; refreshed Sun 11:58 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
IND	60.3	4.9	201.9	96.5	16.6	2.7	1.4
MIN	63.9	5.5	203.9	147.9	20.0	2.3	1.1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

IND

QBDaniel Jonesexpected starterProjected PPR: 12.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	215.0	215.4
Passing TD	0.7	1.1
Attempts	36.3	34.3
Completions	21.7	21.0
Rushing yds	2.7	12.9
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
INT	1.0	1.0

RB1Jonathan TaylorProjected PPR: 14.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	20.3	15.7
Rushing yds	82.0	62.7
Receptions	2.5	3.0
Receiving yds	27.2	26.4
Rushing TD	1.2	0.4
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

RB2Seth McGowanProjected PPR: 2.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	3.5	3.3
Rushing yds	14.7	12.4
Receptions	0.5	0.6
Receiving yds	1.7	4.4
Rushing TD	0.0	0.0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Keenan AllenProjected PPR: 11.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	8.0	7.9
Receptions	5.2	5.1
Receiving yds	45.4	50.3
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3

WR2Josh DownsProjected PPR: 10.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.0	6.7
Receptions	4.0	4.1
Receiving yds	48.2	44.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

TE1Will MalloryProjected PPR: 6.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.0	4.4
Receptions	2.0	2.8
Receiving yds	20.0	29.0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

MIN

QBKyler Murrayexpected starterProjected PPR: 17.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	165.5	222.3
Passing TD	0.5	1.5
Attempts	25.3	31.2
Completions	17.3	20.3
Rushing yds	1.5	28.4
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2
INT	0.5	0.7

RB1Aaron JonesProjected PPR: 13.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	19.4	14.3
Rushing yds	82.0	62.6
Receptions	2.4	2.4
Receiving yds	14.4	19.7
Rushing TD	0.4	0.4
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

RB2Jordan MasonProjected PPR: 7.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	15.0	9.1
Rushing yds	59.0	42.2
Receptions	0.0	0.6
Receiving yds	0.0	4.2
Rushing TD	1.0	0.4
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Justin JeffersonProjected PPR: 11.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.0	6.7
Receptions	4.8	4.3
Receiving yds	64.5	54.3
Receiving TD	0.8	0.3

WR2Jordan AddisonProjected PPR: 8.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.5	4.9
Receptions	2.8	2.8
Receiving yds	40.8	38.8
Receiving TD	0.3	0.3

TE1T.J. HockensonProjected PPR: 8.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.4	4.3
Receptions	4.6	3.4
Receiving yds	40.4	32.8
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 11:57 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

TB @ CAR

Priced, no pick

Baker Mayfield (TB, Q) v Bryce Young (CAR)

Kickoff: 67°F · Wind 10 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 5:29 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

43–13

CAR -4.0

Vegas CAR -3.0

No pick

+1.04

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 10:38 AM CT; refreshed Sun 10:38 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
TB	61.7	5.2	201.4	121.2	17.9	2.5	1.2
CAR	62.6	5.5	223.4	123.5	19.7	2.0	1.2

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

QBBaker Mayfieldexpected starterProjected PPR: 14.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	205.0	218.2
Passing TD	0.7	1.3
Attempts	32.0	32.0
Completions	20.3	20.4
Rushing yds	1.0	21.4
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
INT	0.7	0.8

RB1Bucky IrvingProjected PPR: 14.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	16.0	15.3
Rushing yds	75.3	62.0
Receptions	2.8	3.2
Receiving yds	12.3	27.3
Rushing TD	0.3	0.3
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2

RB2Kenny GainwellProjected PPR: 9.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	3.2	4.3
Rushing yds	10.2	18.6
Receptions	2.0	3.1
Receiving yds	10.2	24.4
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1

WR1Chris Godwin Jr.Projected PPR: 10.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.8	6.4
Receptions	3.8	4.2
Receiving yds	36.0	47.8
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

WR2Ted Hurst IIIProjected PPR: 8.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.4	5.2
Receptions	2.2	2.8
Receiving yds	33.6	38.9
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3

TE1Cade OttonProjected PPR: 8.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.8	5.4
Receptions	3.2	3.7
Receiving yds	31.0	37.6
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

CAR

QBBryce Youngexpected starterProjected PPR: 15.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	309.8	236.7
Passing TD	2.2	1.5
Attempts	40.2	33.8
Completions	24.2	21.8
Rushing yds	0.0	11.4
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
INT	0.4	0.7

RB1Chuba HubbardProjected PPR: 14.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	17.8	17.7
Rushing yds	85.2	77.0
Receptions	2.2	1.7
Receiving yds	17.0	14.2
Rushing TD	0.8	0.6
Receiving TD	0.4	0.1

RB2AJ DillonProjected PPR: 3.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	4.3	4.5
Rushing yds	10.8	19.3
Receptions	0.5	0.5
Receiving yds	0.8	4.0
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Tetairoa McMillanProjected PPR: 12.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	9.6	7.5
Receptions	6.4	4.4
Receiving yds	94.2	58.2
Receiving TD	0.4	0.4

WR2Jalen CokerProjected PPR: 10.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	8.8	5.9
Receptions	6.0	4.1
Receiving yds	79.8	48.8
Receiving TD	0.5	0.3

TE1Darren WallerProjected PPR: 6.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.2	3.5
Receptions	2.6	2.4
Receiving yds	29.6	26.4
Receiving TD	0.4	0.3

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 10:37 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

SF @ ATL

Priced, no pick

Brock Purdy (SF) v Michael Penix Jr. (ATL)

Kickoff: 67°F · Wind 15 mph · Precip 0% · Roof TBD

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast; the retractable roof status is not yet confirmed.

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 1:26 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

20–29

SF -3.6

Vegas SF -2.5

No pick

+1.14

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 10:38 AM CT; refreshed Sun 10:38 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
SF	62.8	6.0	243.0	132.9	20.9	1.2	1.0
ATL	61.6	5.7	226.2	124.4	19.7	1.9	1.1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

QBBrock Purdyexpected starterProjected PPR: 18.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	243.3	235.3
Passing TD	2.3	1.7
Attempts	28.5	31.3
Completions	19.8	21.0
Rushing yds	2.7	22.7
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2
INT	0.3	0.5

RB1Christian McCaffreyProjected PPR: 23.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	12.8	14.6
Rushing yds	58.3	65.4
Receptions	4.7	5.8
Receiving yds	31.7	56.6
Rushing TD	1.2	0.7
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

RB2Kaelon BlackProjected PPR: 4.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	7.5	6.6
Rushing yds	28.3	28.2
Receptions	0.3	0.6
Receiving yds	1.3	5.2
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Christian KirkProjected PPR: 8.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	—	6.1
Receptions	—	3.4
Receiving yds	—	37.7
Receiving TD	—	0.2

WR2Brandin CooksProjected PPR: 5.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	1.7	3.1
Receptions	0.7	1.9
Receiving yds	6.7	24.1
Receiving TD	0.3	0.1

TE1George KittleProjected PPR: 18.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.0	7.9
Receptions	4.3	6.1
Receiving yds	56.2	75.3
Receiving TD	0.8	0.8

ATL

QBMichael Penix Jr.expected starterProjected PPR: 14.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	236.0	224.4
Passing TD	1.5	1.5
Attempts	27.5	30.9
Completions	17.8	20.3
Rushing yds	0.0	7.4
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
INT	0.3	0.6

RB1Bijan RobinsonProjected PPR: 23.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	18.5	21.8
Rushing yds	106.8	98.0
Receptions	3.3	3.9
Receiving yds	24.0	37.9
Rushing TD	0.7	0.8
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2

RB2Khalil HerbertProjected PPR: 2.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	—	3.3
Rushing yds	—	13.5
Receptions	—	0.5
Receiving yds	—	4.1
Rushing TD	—	0.1
Receiving TD	—	0.0

WR1Drake LondonProjected PPR: 15.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.7	8.5
Receptions	5.2	5.6
Receiving yds	91.7	72.0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.4

WR2Jahan DotsonProjected PPR: 5.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	3.7	3.5
Receptions	1.8	2.0
Receiving yds	39.3	26.8
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2

TE1Kyle PittsProjected PPR: 11.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	3.7	5.9
Receptions	2.5	4.4
Receiving yds	28.2	45.5
Receiving TD	0.5	0.4

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 10:37 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

DEN @ ARI

Bo Nix (DEN) v Jacoby Brissett (ARI)

Kickoff: 81°F · Wind 5 mph · Precip 0% · Roof TBD

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 3:05 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast; the retractable roof status is not yet confirmed.

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 3:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 1:32 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 2:05 PM CDT

Sun 3:05 PM CT

DEN -7.8

Vegas DEN -4.5

Spreads

DEN -4.5PREMIUM

+3.31

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 2:38 PM CT; refreshed Sun 2:38 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
DEN	64.0	5.6	232.5	127.5	20.0	1.5	1.1
ARI	61.3	5.2	212.5	103.7	17.6	2.7	1.4

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

DEN

QBBo Nixexpected starterProjected PPR: 16.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	174.8	241.6
Passing TD	1.0	1.6
Attempts	31.5	34.1
Completions	19.0	22.4
Rushing yds	4.2	15.9
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
INT	0.5	0.7

RB1J.K. DobbinsProjected PPR: 10.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	13.5	13.6
Rushing yds	45.0	58.5
Receptions	1.3	1.5
Receiving yds	4.5	9.4
Rushing TD	0.3	0.4
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

RB2RJ HarveyProjected PPR: 9.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	4.2	5.6
Rushing yds	16.2	23.1
Receptions	4.6	3.0
Receiving yds	32.6	25.8
Rushing TD	0.2	0.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

WR1Jaylen WaddleProjected PPR: 12.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.3	6.7
Receptions	3.7	4.3
Receiving yds	38.0	56.8
Receiving TD	0.2	0.4

WR2Courtland SuttonProjected PPR: 9.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	4.7	5.4
Receptions	2.2	3.3
Receiving yds	20.5	42.4
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3

TE1Evan EngramProjected PPR: 5.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	3.2	3.5
Receptions	2.0	2.4
Receiving yds	22.3	24.5
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1

ARI

QBJacoby Brissettexpected starterProjected PPR: 15.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	221.3	248.6
Passing TD	1.5	1.4
Attempts	39.0	37.7
Completions	26.0	23.5
Rushing yds	3.8	12.8
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
INT	1.0	1.0

RB1Tyler AllgeierProjected PPR: 10.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	8.8	13.1
Rushing yds	26.2	53.8
Receptions	2.2	1.8
Receiving yds	9.0	12.5
Rushing TD	0.2	0.4
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

RB2Bam KnightProjected PPR: 6.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	6.0	8.2
Rushing yds	37.3	34.4
Receptions	0.7	1.2
Receiving yds	6.0	9.3
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Michael WilsonProjected PPR: 12.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	9.7	8.0
Receptions	5.5	4.6
Receiving yds	53.3	54.4
Receiving TD	0.2	0.4

WR2Kendrick BourneProjected PPR: 8.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.0	5.2
Receptions	4.4	3.4
Receiving yds	45.0	41.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

TE1Trey McBrideProjected PPR: 15.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	10.8	9.0
Receptions	8.2	6.4
Receiving yds	60.2	61.5
Receiving TD	0.5	0.5

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 2:37 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

LA @ LV

Matthew Stafford (LA) v Kirk Cousins (LV)

Kickoff: Indoors

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast does not apply to a closed-roof game.

Sun 3:25 PM CT

LA -6.0

Vegas LA -3.0

Spreads

LA -3.0PREMIUM

+2.97

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 3:18 PM CT; refreshed Sun 3:18 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
LA	63.7	6.0	263.5	116.4	20.9	1.3	1.1
LV	62.5	5.5	239.4	106.8	19.5	1.8	1.3

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

QBMatthew Staffordexpected starterProjected PPR: 17.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	299.0	279.7
Passing TD	1.8	2.0
Attempts	41.5	37.2
Completions	27.3	25.0
Rushing yds	0.5	2.8
Rushing TD	0.0	0.0
INT	1.0	0.6

RB1Kyren WilliamsProjected PPR: 17.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	13.3	15.7
Rushing yds	65.5	68.1
Receptions	5.0	3.4
Receiving yds	36.2	29.7
Rushing TD	0.7	0.6
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1

RB2Blake CorumProjected PPR: 7.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	7.8	8.4
Rushing yds	37.2	36.0
Receptions	1.5	1.2
Receiving yds	15.2	10.1
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3
Receiving TD	0.2	0.0

WR1Puka NacuaProjected PPR: 23.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	13.0	11.4
Receptions	9.3	8.5
Receiving yds	104.3	107.0
Receiving TD	0.3	0.7

WR2Konata MumpfieldProjected PPR: 5.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	3.4	3.5
Receptions	1.6	1.8
Receiving yds	25.4	22.7
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2

TE1Tyler HigbeeProjected PPR: 9.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.8	5.0
Receptions	4.8	3.7
Receiving yds	49.2	40.5
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3

QBKirk Cousinsexpected starterProjected PPR: 14.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	263.7	241.4
Passing TD	2.3	1.5
Attempts	35.5	34.8
Completions	22.5	22.2
Rushing yds	-0.5	2.6
Rushing TD	0.0	0.0
INT	0.8	0.8

RB1Ashton JeantyProjected PPR: 16.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	16.3	15.1
Rushing yds	52.2	63.0
Receptions	4.3	3.7
Receiving yds	41.8	30.3
Rushing TD	0.2	0.4
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2

RB2Mike Washington Jr.Projected PPR: 5.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	5.7	5.6
Rushing yds	28.0	26.0
Receptions	0.5	0.8
Receiving yds	1.8	6.0
Rushing TD	0.2	0.2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Tre TuckerProjected PPR: 10.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.8	6.1
Receptions	4.0	3.8
Receiving yds	61.8	48.2
Receiving TD	0.5	0.3

WR2Jalen NailorProjected PPR: 6.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	3.8	4.0
Receptions	1.5	2.1
Receiving yds	15.3	27.9
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2

TE1Brock BowersProjected PPR: 14.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	10.8	7.8
Receptions	7.0	5.5
Receiving yds	95.5	60.7
Receiving TD	0.8	0.5

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 3:17 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

GB @ DET

Jordan Love (GB) v Jared Goff (DET)

Kickoff: Indoors

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 3:25 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast does not apply to a closed-roof game.

Sun 3:25 PM CT

DET -6.4

Vegas DET -3.5

Spreads

DET -3.5PREMIUM

+2.94

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 3:18 PM CT; refreshed Sun 3:18 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
GB	61.3	6.0	253.1	116.0	20.4	1.6	1.0
DET	63.1	6.3	261.1	139.2	22.9	1.4	0.9

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

QBJordan Loveexpected starterProjected PPR: 17.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	280.7	257.1
Passing TD	1.8	1.8
Attempts	37.7	33.5
Completions	22.5	22.7
Rushing yds	3.0	8.8
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
INT	0.7	0.6

RB1Josh JacobsProjected PPR: 13.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	15.6	10.0
Rushing yds	61.9	46.1
Receptions	2.4	2.7
Receiving yds	18.8	23.8
Rushing TD	0.9	0.5
Receiving TD	0.1	0.1

RB2MarShawn LloydProjected PPR: 6.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	8.0	4.9
Rushing yds	20.3	20.6
Receptions	1.7	1.5
Receiving yds	9.2	12.2
Rushing TD	0.3	0.2
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1

WR1Christian WatsonProjected PPR: 13.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	8.0	6.2
Receptions	4.8	4.0
Receiving yds	89.7	60.3
Receiving TD	1.0	0.6

WR2Matthew GoldenProjected PPR: 10.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	9.5	6.0
Receptions	5.0	3.7
Receiving yds	83.5	48.2
Receiving TD	0.5	0.2

TE1Tucker KraftProjected PPR: 11.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	6.2	5.3
Receptions	4.2	3.9
Receiving yds	41.5	45.8
Receiving TD	0.2	0.5

DET

QBJared Goffexpected starterProjected PPR: 19.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Passing yds	297.0	284.5
Passing TD	2.4	2.2
Attempts	38.2	34.6
Completions	25.6	24.0
Rushing yds	0.2	4.5
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1
INT	0.0	0.5

RB1Jahmyr GibbsProjected PPR: 28.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	21.0	23.5
Rushing yds	100.8	114.4
Receptions	5.4	4.4
Receiving yds	48.6	41.7
Rushing TD	1.4	1.2
Receiving TD	0.4	0.2

RB2Sione VakiProjected PPR: 3.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	3.0	3.3
Rushing yds	10.2	14.8
Receptions	0.8	0.5
Receiving yds	10.4	5.2
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1Amon-Ra St. BrownProjected PPR: 18.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	11.4	9.7
Receptions	7.4	6.8
Receiving yds	74.4	81.0
Receiving TD	1.0	0.7

WR2Jameson WilliamsProjected PPR: 11.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.8	5.3
Receptions	3.6	3.5
Receiving yds	55.2	51.8
Receiving TD	0.4	0.4

TE1Sam LaPortaProjected PPR: 12.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.4	5.7
Receptions	5.4	4.5
Receiving yds	63.2	52.6
Receiving TD	0.6	0.4

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 3:17 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

KC @ SEA

Priced, no pick

Patrick Mahomes (KC) v Sam Darnold (SEA)

Kickoff: 53°F · Wind 2 mph · Precip 52%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 25, 7:20 PM CDT

Chance Light Rain

Forecast hour: Oct 25, 7:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 5:06 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 6:05 PM CDT

Sun 7:20 PM CT

Kick in 37m

—

Vegas SEA -3.0

No pick

—

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DAL @ PHI

Priced, no pick

Dak Prescott (DAL) v Tanner McKee (PHI)

Kickoff: 58°F · Wind 5 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 26, 7:15 PM CDT

Clear

Forecast hour: Oct 26, 7:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 25, 3:08 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 25, 2:05 PM CDT

Mon 7:15 PM CT

Kick in 1d 0h

—

Vegas PHI +4.5

No pick

—

Game breakdownPremium

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Showing 14 of 14 games · earliest start first · gated rows stay on the board

How the projections have done

How each projected average on the card compared with the actual result, next to the player's season average going in. Each projection used only information available before that game.

2025 walk-forward test, not live results (272 games)

	Projected average		Season average
Stat	RMSE	Bias	RMSE
QB passing yds	70.4	+4.4	85.3
QB passing TD	1.11	−0.11	1.24
QB attempts	8.03	+0.95	10.20
QB completions	5.59	+0.64	7.05
QB rushing yds	15.9	−0.7	16.7
QB INT	0.82	+0.07	0.91
RB1 carries	5.45	−0.48	6.03
RB1 rushing yds	38.3	+0.8	42.2
RB1 receptions	1.86	−0.08	1.99
RB1 receiving yds	20.1	+1.0	21.9
RB1 rushing TD	0.75	−0.05	0.80
RB2 carries	4.34	−0.39	4.53
RB2 rushing yds	25.9	−0.3	27.6
RB2 receptions	1.38	−0.11	1.42
RB2 receiving yds	13.3	+0.5	13.7
RB2 rushing TD	0.47	−0.03	0.49
WR1 targets	3.16	+0.11	3.39
WR1 receptions	2.41	+0.19	2.56
WR1 receiving yds	36.9	−0.3	39.8
WR1 receiving TD	0.61	+0.01	0.67
WR2 targets	2.75	+0.12	2.93
WR2 receptions	1.97	+0.15	2.08
WR2 receiving yds	31.0	−1.0	33.8
WR2 receiving TD	0.51	0.00	0.54
TE1 targets	2.75	−0.32	2.78
TE1 receptions	2.28	−0.30	2.33
TE1 receiving yds	27.5	−3.0	28.9
TE1 receiving TD	0.57	−0.08	0.59
Team plays	8.91	+1.78	9.14
Team yds/play	1.12	+0.03	1.24
Team passing yds (net)	69.4	+5.0	75.4
Team rushing yds	50.0	+7.1	52.6
Team first downs	4.81	−0.48	5.20
Team sacked	1.74	−0.01	1.81
Team turnovers	1.13	+0.11	1.23

2026 weeks 2-5, today's card replayed, not live results (60 games); some settings were fit on these weeks

	Projected average		Season average
Stat	RMSE	Bias	RMSE
QB passing yds	74.8	−5.8	97.6
QB passing TD	1.11	−0.11	1.42
QB attempts	9.29	−0.39	11.49
QB completions	6.26	−0.25	7.95
QB rushing yds	17.8	−0.1	19.1
QB INT	0.76	+0.08	0.87
RB1 carries	5.64	+0.18	5.95
RB1 rushing yds	35.6	+6.8	37.8
RB1 receptions	1.92	+0.01	2.12
RB1 receiving yds	19.9	+2.8	21.7
RB1 rushing TD	0.70	−0.04	0.91
RB2 carries	4.19	+0.37	4.77
RB2 rushing yds	23.5	+5.2	26.1
RB2 receptions	1.58	−0.17	1.70
RB2 receiving yds	12.3	+0.9	14.7
RB2 rushing TD	0.46	0.00	0.48
WR1 targets	3.85	−0.12	4.08
WR1 receptions	2.86	−0.30	3.21
WR1 receiving yds	43.3	−8.3	50.5
WR1 receiving TD	0.65	−0.04	0.80
WR2 targets	2.91	−0.12	3.19
WR2 receptions	2.09	+0.03	2.22
WR2 receiving yds	30.8	−2.3	35.6
WR2 receiving TD	0.45	+0.10	0.58
TE1 targets	2.85	−0.20	3.09
TE1 receptions	2.43	−0.12	2.77
TE1 receiving yds	29.0	+1.8	35.1
TE1 receiving TD	0.54	−0.03	0.66
Team plays	9.01	−0.15	10.97
Team yds/play	1.09	+0.04	1.38
Team passing yds (net)	71.2	−9.4	85.9
Team rushing yds	47.8	+12.9	53.2
Team first downs	5.20	−1.10	6.31
Team sacked	1.52	−0.01	1.85
Team turnovers	1.21	−0.01	1.37

Player rows count games where the listed player started and had a season average (RB2: one of the team's top two backs by snaps).

2026 rows count games where the listed player played, since 2026 starts are not yet in the data.

RMSE: Typical miss, in the stat's own units, with big misses counted more. Lower is better; the lower of the two is in bold.
Bias: Projection minus actual, on average. Negative means the projection ran low.
Season average: The player's average in earlier games this season (first game: last season with the same team). For teams, the team's earlier games.

Lines shown are model output and may move. All results are model projections, not guarantees.