NFL · GAME PICKS

Week 5 board

Spreads and totals are the NFL products, both priced against the posted market lines. A game whose edge does not clear a product's floor shows the two numbers and no pick.

Games this week

Spreads picks

Totals picks

9–4–1

Picks this week · 0 covering

TB @ DAL

Priced, no pick

Jalon Daniels (TB) v Dak Prescott (DAL)

Kickoff: 85°F · Wind 5 mph · Precip 0% · Roof TBD

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 8, 7:15 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast; the retractable roof status is not yet confirmed.

Clear

Forecast hour: Oct 8, 7:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 8, 1:26 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 8, 6:05 PM CDT

FINAL

24–16

DAL -9.3

Vegas DAL -9.5

No pick

+0.22

PHI @ JAX

Jalen Hurts (PHI) v Trevor Lawrence (JAX) · at Tottenham · neutral site (no home edge)

Kickoff: 58°F · Wind 5 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 8:30 AM CDT

Gusts: 12 mph

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 8:00 AM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: Open-Meteo

Saved: Oct 11, 7:05 AM CDT

FINAL

17–19

PHI +5.0

Vegas PHI +8.0

Spreads

PHI +8.0PREMIUM

BBMI Win

+2.99

CIN @ MIA

Joe Burrow (CIN) v Malik Willis (MIA)

Kickoff: 91°F · Wind 9 mph · Precip 5%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 3:31 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

31–24

CIN -9.6

Vegas CIN -7.0

Spreads

CIN -7.0PREMIUM

PUSH

+2.56

NYG @ WAS

Jameis Winston (NYG) v Jayden Daniels (WAS)

Kickoff: 68°F · Wind 14 mph · Precip 77%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Rain Showers

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 9:53 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

27–27

NYG -1.6

Vegas NYG +3.5

Spreads

NYG +3.5PREMIUM

BBMI Win

+5.11

IND @ PIT

Daniel Jones (IND) v Aaron Rodgers (PIT)

Kickoff: 61°F · Wind 13 mph · Precip 63%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Rain Showers Likely

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 10:36 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

22–34

IND -0.0

Vegas IND +3.0

Spreads

IND +3.0PREMIUM

BBMI Loss

+3.04

LV @ NE

Kirk Cousins (LV) v Drake Maye (NE)

Kickoff: 60°F · Wind 6 mph · Precip 4%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Cloudy

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 7:57 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

17–45

NE -6.0

Vegas NE -3.5

Spreads

NE -3.5PREMIUM

BBMI Win

+2.52

CLE @ NYJ

Deshaun Watson (CLE) v Geno Smith (NYJ)

Kickoff: 63°F · Wind 13 mph · Precip 100%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Rain

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 10:12 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

12–17

CLE +0.0

Vegas CLE +2.5

Spreads

CLE +2.5PREMIUMFREE

BBMI Loss

+2.46

CHI @ GB

Priced, no pick

Tyson Bagent (CHI) v Jordan Love (GB)

Kickoff: 75°F · Wind 13 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 10:46 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

7–31

GB -0.2

Vegas GB +1.5

No pick

+1.67

HOU @ TEN

Priced, no pick

Stroud (HOU) v Cam Ward (TEN)

Kickoff: 68°F · Wind 10 mph · Precip 4%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Mostly Cloudy

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 6:11 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

26–3

HOU -5.7

Vegas HOU -6.5

No pick

+0.81

MIN @ NO

Priced, no pick

Kyler Murray (MIN) v Tyler Shough (NO)

Kickoff: Indoors

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast does not apply to a closed-roof game.

FINAL

23–13

MIN -2.0

Vegas MIN -2.5

No pick

+0.54

DEN @ LAC

Priced, no pick

Bo Nix (DEN) v Justin Herbert (LAC)

Kickoff: Indoors

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 3:05 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast does not apply to a closed-roof game.

FINAL

23–17

DEN -4.0

Vegas DEN -3.5

No pick

+0.46

DET @ ARI

Jared Goff (DET) v Jacoby Brissett (ARI)

Kickoff: 82°F · Wind 20 mph · Precip 34% · Roof TBD

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast; the retractable roof status is not yet confirmed.

Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 3:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 1:33 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 2:05 PM CDT

FINAL

45–21

DET -8.5

Vegas DET -5.5

Spreads

DET -5.5PREMIUM

BBMI Win

+3.04

SF @ SEA

Priced, no pick

Brock Purdy (SF) v Sam Darnold (SEA)

Kickoff: 56°F · Wind 9 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 3:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 1:26 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 2:05 PM CDT

FINAL

32–29

SEA -2.0

Vegas SEA -3.0

No pick

+1.02

BAL @ ATL

Priced, no pick

Tyler Huntley (BAL) v Michael Penix Jr. (ATL)

Kickoff: 66°F · Wind 10 mph · Precip 1% · Roof TBD

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 11, 7:20 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast; the retractable roof status is not yet confirmed.

Partly Cloudy

Forecast hour: Oct 11, 7:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 11, 1:27 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 11, 6:05 PM CDT

FINAL

30–23

ATL -4.5

Vegas ATL -3.0

No pick

+1.53

BUF @ LA

Priced, no pick

Josh Allen (BUF) v Matthew Stafford (LA)

Kickoff: Indoors

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 12, 7:15 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast does not apply to a closed-roof game.

FINAL

37–34

LA -3.4

Vegas LA -3.5

No pick

+0.06

Showing 15 of 15 games · earliest start first

How the projections have done

How each projected average on the card compared with the actual result, next to the player's season average going in. Each projection used only information available before that game.

2025 walk-forward test, not live results (272 games)

	Projected average		Season average
Stat	RMSE	Bias	RMSE
QB passing yds	70.4	+4.4	85.3
QB passing TD	1.11	−0.11	1.24
QB attempts	8.03	+0.95	10.20
QB completions	5.59	+0.64	7.05
QB rushing yds	15.9	−0.7	16.7
QB INT	0.82	+0.07	0.91
RB1 carries	5.45	−0.48	6.03
RB1 rushing yds	38.3	+0.8	42.2
RB1 receptions	1.86	−0.08	1.99
RB1 receiving yds	20.1	+1.0	21.9
RB1 rushing TD	0.75	−0.05	0.80
RB2 carries	4.34	−0.39	4.53
RB2 rushing yds	25.9	−0.3	27.6
RB2 receptions	1.38	−0.11	1.42
RB2 receiving yds	13.3	+0.5	13.7
RB2 rushing TD	0.47	−0.03	0.49
WR1 targets	3.16	+0.11	3.39
WR1 receptions	2.41	+0.19	2.56
WR1 receiving yds	36.9	−0.3	39.8
WR1 receiving TD	0.61	+0.01	0.67
WR2 targets	2.75	+0.12	2.93
WR2 receptions	1.97	+0.15	2.08
WR2 receiving yds	31.0	−1.0	33.8
WR2 receiving TD	0.51	0.00	0.54
TE1 targets	2.75	−0.32	2.78
TE1 receptions	2.28	−0.30	2.33
TE1 receiving yds	27.5	−3.0	28.9
TE1 receiving TD	0.57	−0.08	0.59
Team plays	8.91	+1.78	9.14
Team yds/play	1.12	+0.03	1.24
Team passing yds (net)	69.4	+5.0	75.4
Team rushing yds	50.0	+7.1	52.6
Team first downs	4.81	−0.48	5.20
Team sacked	1.74	−0.01	1.81
Team turnovers	1.13	+0.11	1.23

2026 weeks 2-5, today's card replayed, not live results (60 games); some settings were fit on these weeks

	Projected average		Season average
Stat	RMSE	Bias	RMSE
QB passing yds	74.8	−5.8	97.6
QB passing TD	1.11	−0.11	1.42
QB attempts	9.29	−0.39	11.49
QB completions	6.26	−0.25	7.95
QB rushing yds	17.8	−0.1	19.1
QB INT	0.76	+0.08	0.87
RB1 carries	5.64	+0.18	5.95
RB1 rushing yds	35.6	+6.8	37.8
RB1 receptions	1.92	+0.01	2.12
RB1 receiving yds	19.9	+2.8	21.7
RB1 rushing TD	0.70	−0.04	0.91
RB2 carries	4.19	+0.37	4.77
RB2 rushing yds	23.5	+5.2	26.1
RB2 receptions	1.58	−0.17	1.70
RB2 receiving yds	12.3	+0.9	14.7
RB2 rushing TD	0.46	0.00	0.48
WR1 targets	3.85	−0.12	4.08
WR1 receptions	2.86	−0.30	3.21
WR1 receiving yds	43.3	−8.3	50.5
WR1 receiving TD	0.65	−0.04	0.80
WR2 targets	2.91	−0.12	3.19
WR2 receptions	2.09	+0.03	2.22
WR2 receiving yds	30.8	−2.3	35.6
WR2 receiving TD	0.45	+0.10	0.58
TE1 targets	2.85	−0.20	3.09
TE1 receptions	2.43	−0.12	2.77
TE1 receiving yds	29.0	+1.8	35.1
TE1 receiving TD	0.54	−0.03	0.66
Team plays	9.01	−0.15	10.97
Team yds/play	1.09	+0.04	1.38
Team passing yds (net)	71.2	−9.4	85.9
Team rushing yds	47.8	+12.9	53.2
Team first downs	5.20	−1.10	6.31
Team sacked	1.52	−0.01	1.85
Team turnovers	1.21	−0.01	1.37

Player rows count games where the listed player started and had a season average (RB2: one of the team's top two backs by snaps).

2026 rows count games where the listed player played, since 2026 starts are not yet in the data.

RMSE: Typical miss, in the stat's own units, with big misses counted more. Lower is better; the lower of the two is in bold.
Bias: Projection minus actual, on average. Negative means the projection ran low.
Season average: The player's average in earlier games this season (first game: last season with the same team). For teams, the team's earlier games.

Lines shown are model output and may move. All results are model projections, not guarantees.