NFL · GAME PICKS

Week 6 board

Spreads and totals are the NFL products, both priced against the posted market lines. A game whose edge does not clear a product's floor shows the two numbers and no pick.

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Spreads picks

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5–7–2

Picks this week · 0 covering

SEA @ DEN

Sam Darnold (SEA) v Bo Nix (DEN)

Kickoff: 52°F · Wind 7 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT

Clear

Forecast hour: Oct 15, 7:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 15, 1:46 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 15, 6:05 PM CDT

FINAL

14–17

DEN +0.3

Vegas DEN +2.5

Spreads

DEN +2.5PREMIUM

BBMI Win

+2.17

Game breakdowngenerated Thu 5:48 PM CT; refreshed Thu 5:48 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
SEA	62.6	5.2	205.7	122.5	18.1	2.3	1.2
DEN	62.6	5.3	216.4	115.1	18.3	1.8	1.4
SEA (actual)	81	4	240	113	24	5	3
DEN (actual)	56	3	94	75	13	2	0

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

SEA

QBSam Darnoldexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	188.8	208.2	278
Passing TD	1.8	1.2	0
Attempts	24.5	30.5	51
Completions	15.8	19.4	27
Rushing yds	4.0	6.8	19
INT	1.3	0.7	2

RB1Emanuel WilsonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	14.6	18.0	14
Rushing yds	50.2	79.2	52
Receptions	1.0	1.4	0
Receiving yds	10.0	10.8	0
Rushing TD	0.4	0.5	0

RB2George HolaniProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	5.2	5.9	5
Rushing yds	15.4	24.9	20
Receptions	2.2	1.4	0
Receiving yds	15.2	10.6	0
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2	1

WR1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	10.0	9.7	16
Receptions	7.4	6.7	12
Receiving yds	116.6	84.3	134
Receiving TD	1.4	0.6	0

WR2Rashid ShaheedProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.8	5.0	8
Receptions	1.8	2.9	5
Receiving yds	19.2	29.9	66
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

TE1AJ BarnerProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.0	4.5	4
Receptions	2.4	3.1	3
Receiving yds	24.4	29.4	16
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2	0

DEN

QBBo Nixexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	188.4	227.0	107
Passing TD	1.2	1.3	0
Attempts	32.4	34.8	27
Completions	19.4	21.6	17
Rushing yds	7.0	15.5	2
INT	0.6	0.9	0

RB1J.K. DobbinsProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	12.8	13.8	17
Rushing yds	45.8	62.1	41
Receptions	1.0	1.2	3
Receiving yds	4.4	7.4	5
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3	1

RB2RJ HarveyProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	3.8	5.7	6
Rushing yds	14.0	24.3	25
Receptions	5.0	2.9	3
Receiving yds	33.0	23.5	31
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2	1

WR1Jaylen WaddleProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.2	6.3	7
Receptions	3.6	3.9	4
Receiving yds	40.8	50.1	24
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3	0

WR2Courtland SuttonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.0	5.7	3
Receptions	2.2	3.3	2
Receiving yds	20.8	41.4	19
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3	0

TE1Evan EngramProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.4	3.9	2
Receptions	2.0	2.5	2
Receiving yds	24.2	24.5	13
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

We simulate each game 4,000 times, play by play, using league play results from this season and historical, adjusted for each team's play-calling tendency. Each player's share of carries and targets comes from his usage this season, with last season counted at a lower weight, and a quarterback's passing line is scaled to his own pass volume. When a player is ruled out, his carries go to teammates at his position and his targets are spread across the offense. Players ruled out on the injury report or not active on the roster are removed. Projected numbers are averages across the simulations. Team passing yards are net of sacks; a quarterback's are not.

Fantasy points: 1 per reception; 1 per 25 passing yards; 4 per passing TD; 1 per 10 rushing/receiving yards; 6 per rushing/receiving TD; -2 per interception or lost fumble. Calculated from unrounded projections. Excludes two-point conversions, return/recovery TDs and bonuses, which are not modeled for individual players.

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Thu 5:47 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

HOU @ JAX

Priced, no pick

Stroud (HOU) v Trevor Lawrence (JAX) · at Wembley · neutral site (no home edge)

Kickoff: 56°F · Wind 12 mph · Precip 4%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 8:30 AM CDT

Gusts: 25 mph

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 8:00 AM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: Open-Meteo

Saved: Oct 18, 7:05 AM CDT

FINAL

34–31

JAX -2.0

Vegas JAX -2.5

No pick

+0.48

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 8:18 AM CT; refreshed Sun 8:18 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
HOU	62.1	5.0	196.7	111.0	17.1	2.5	1.4
JAX	62.9	5.1	201.7	120.4	17.9	2.5	1.3
HOU (actual)	59	7	312	114	23	0	1
JAX (actual)	67	6	306	107	24	0	1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

HOU

QBC.J. Stroudexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	280.4	213.2	312
Passing TD	1.2	1.1	3
Attempts	37.0	33.9	34
Completions	23.8	20.8	24
Rushing yds	1.8	15.4	5
INT	0.0	1.0	1

RB1Woody MarksProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	8.6	16.0	15
Rushing yds	29.8	64.0	56
Receptions	2.2	1.6	2
Receiving yds	10.8	12.0	25
Rushing TD	0.4	0.3	0

RB2Dare OgunbowaleProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	1.2	3.1
Rushing yds	2.8	13.0
Receptions	1.1	0.3
Receiving yds	8.4	1.9
Rushing TD	0.1	0.1

WR1Nico CollinsProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	8.3	7.1	5
Receptions	6.3	4.2	3
Receiving yds	83.0	49.7	74
Receiving TD	1.0	0.3	0

WR2Marvin Harrison Jr.Projected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.3	4.4	4
Receptions	1.3	2.3	3
Receiving yds	21.3	27.7	34
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2	0

TE1Dalton SchultzProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.2	5.2	6
Receptions	4.8	3.8	4
Receiving yds	48.8	33.9	33
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

JAX

QBTrevor Lawrenceexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	234.8	210.7	306
Passing TD	2.0	1.2	4
Attempts	28.6	32.0	41
Completions	19.2	20.1	24
Rushing yds	5.6	19.2	11
INT	0.6	0.8	1

RB1Bhayshul TutenProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	16.4	12.3	12
Rushing yds	69.8	50.7	39
Receptions	1.8	1.3	4
Receiving yds	15.6	10.9	48
Rushing TD	0.4	0.3	0

RB2Chris Rodriguez Jr.Projected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	5.6	7.1	11
Rushing yds	22.6	30.6	55
Receptions	0.2	0.4	0
Receiving yds	1.2	2.9	0
Rushing TD	0.4	0.2	0

WR1Parker WashingtonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.0	6.1	11
Receptions	4.4	3.7	4
Receiving yds	70.4	45.8	64
Receiving TD	0.8	0.3	0

WR2Jakobi MeyersProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.6	5.3	10
Receptions	3.0	3.6	5
Receiving yds	40.4	37.1	83
Receiving TD	0.4	0.2	0

TE1Brenton StrangeProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.2	5.0	7
Receptions	4.2	3.7	5
Receiving yds	47.0	37.6	44
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 8:17 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

NYJ @ NE

Geno Smith (NYJ) v Drake Maye (NE)

Kickoff: 52°F · Wind 3 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 7:09 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

19–26

NE -10.3

Vegas NE -7.0

Spreads

NE -7.0PREMIUM

PUSH

+3.30

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 11:48 AM CT; refreshed Sun 11:48 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
NYJ	58.1	5.0	191.6	99.2	16.4	3.5	1.2
NE	64.1	6.1	231.7	158.8	22.2	1.8	0.9
NYJ (actual)	59	6	227	98	21	3	1
NE (actual)	67	6	235	149	22	0	2

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

NYJ

QBGeno Smithexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	216.8	206.3	252
Passing TD	1.2	1.1	1
Attempts	29.4	30.5	30
Completions	20.4	19.4	20
Rushing yds	0.8	10.3	-1
INT	0.0	0.8	1

RB1Braelon AllenProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	11.4	16.8	17
Rushing yds	47.2	67.5	78
Receptions	1.4	1.6	2
Receiving yds	3.8	10.9	26
Rushing TD	0.4	0.5	0

RB2Isaiah DavisProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	2.0	3.0	7
Rushing yds	8.0	12.7	16
Receptions	1.0	1.0	1
Receiving yds	9.0	8.8	10
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0

WR1Garrett WilsonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	8.4	8.6	6
Receptions	6.2	5.5	4
Receiving yds	74.8	65.4	44
Receiving TD	0.6	0.4	0

WR2Omar Cooper Jr.Projected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	1.0	3.1	7
Receptions	1.0	2.0	6
Receiving yds	30.0	26.0	103
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2	1

TE1Kenyon SadiqProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.2	4.4	3
Receptions	2.8	3.0	1
Receiving yds	29.2	30.8	12
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2	0

QBDrake Mayeexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	245.6	239.4	235
Passing TD	1.6	1.8	3
Attempts	30.2	29.8	32
Completions	19.8	20.6	18
Rushing yds	1.6	28.9	24
INT	1.4	0.5	0

RB1Rhamondre StevensonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	11.4	11.6	14
Rushing yds	45.4	52.9	36
Receptions	3.0	2.4	0
Receiving yds	22.2	23.1	0
Rushing TD	0.4	0.5	0

RB2TreVeyon HendersonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	10.5	10.4	7
Rushing yds	40.8	49.7	31
Receptions	0.5	1.3	1
Receiving yds	5.5	10.5	9
Rushing TD	0.3	0.5	0

WR1A.J. BrownProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.0	6.6	10
Receptions	3.0	4.5	3
Receiving yds	26.0	54.4	27
Receiving TD	0.0	0.4	0

WR2Romeo DoubsProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.6	4.8	1
Receptions	2.6	3.2	1
Receiving yds	43.8	40.9	42
Receiving TD	0.4	0.4	1

TE1Hunter HenryProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.8	4.1	5
Receptions	3.0	3.0	4
Receiving yds	35.4	35.1	48
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3	1

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 11:47 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

NO @ NYG

Tyler Shough (NO) v Jameis Winston (NYG)

Kickoff: 55°F · Wind 6 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 1:22 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

34–27

NYG -4.1

Vegas NYG +1.0

Spreads

NYG +1.0PREMIUM

BBMI Loss

+5.11

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 10:38 AM CT; refreshed Sun 10:38 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
NO	61.4	5.2	206.2	109.9	17.6	2.6	1.3
NYG	62.4	5.3	204.0	124.3	18.1	2.5	1.2
NO (actual)	67	5	144	176	18	0	1
NYG (actual)	69	7	377	85	23	5	3

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

QBTyler Shoughexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	259.8	236.4	144
Passing TD	1.8	1.4	3
Attempts	41.0	35.2	30
Completions	27.4	22.4	16
Rushing yds	3.6	16.3	32
INT	1.0	0.9	0

RB1Alvin KamaraProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	7.0	11.4	7
Rushing yds	21.5	45.4	34
Receptions	3.3	2.6	2
Receiving yds	10.3	16.9	35
Rushing TD	0.5	0.2	0

RB2Kendre MillerProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	7.3	7.7	20
Rushing yds	20.8	32.2	70
Receptions	1.0	0.8	2
Receiving yds	3.8	6.3	0
Rushing TD	0.5	0.3	0

WR1Chris OlaveProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	10.8	9.0	7
Receptions	7.8	5.7	4
Receiving yds	107.4	69.7	43
Receiving TD	0.2	0.4	1

WR2Devaughn VeleProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.4	4.9	6
Receptions	5.0	3.0	3
Receiving yds	50.4	35.1	42
Receiving TD	0.4	0.2	0

TE1Juwan JohnsonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.4	5.6	2
Receptions	5.0	4.0	0
Receiving yds	49.6	44.4	0
Receiving TD	0.6	0.2	0

NYG

QBJameis Winstonexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	201.3	222.8	152
Passing TD	1.5	1.3	1
Attempts	33.0	32.2	26
Completions	19.0	20.6	14
Rushing yds	0.3	11.0	4
INT	0.8	0.8	2

RB1Cam SkatteboProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	16.2	11.6
Rushing yds	58.8	49.9
Receptions	2.0	2.4
Receiving yds	15.8	21.2
Rushing TD	0.2	0.4

RB2Tyrone Tracy Jr.Projected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	1.8	5.0	6
Rushing yds	5.5	21.4	18
Receptions	0.5	1.5	2
Receiving yds	6.3	13.0	27
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	1

WR1Malik NabersProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	9.2	9.1	15
Receptions	5.8	5.6	12
Receiving yds	65.8	68.6	165
Receiving TD	0.4	0.5	0

WR2Darnell MooneyProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.4	4.0	2
Receptions	1.6	2.0	0
Receiving yds	21.8	25.9	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

TE1Isaiah LikelyProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	9.6	6.1	11
Receptions	6.6	4.5	6
Receiving yds	56.8	44.8	99
Receiving TD	0.8	0.3	1

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 10:37 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

BAL @ CLE

Tyler Huntley (BAL) v Deshaun Watson (CLE)

Kickoff: 57°F · Wind 8 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 3:01 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

10–13

CLE -0.9

Vegas CLE +3.0

Spreads

CLE +3.0PREMIUM

BBMI Win

+3.93

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 10:38 AM CT; refreshed Sun 10:38 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
BAL	63.2	5.0	185.6	131.9	17.8	2.5	1.2
CLE	59.7	4.4	149.5	110.7	15.1	4.1	1.5
BAL (actual)	57	4	148	87	13	3	1
CLE (actual)	60	4	144	93	14	5	0

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

BAL

QBTyler Huntleyexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	132.0	196.6	165
Passing TD	1.0	1.1	1
Attempts	20.5	29.6	31
Completions	16.0	18.7	19
Rushing yds	13.5	28.3	28
INT	0.0	0.8	0

RB1Derrick HenryProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	22.6	21.3	17
Rushing yds	95.2	87.3	58
Receptions	1.6	1.3	1
Receiving yds	12.4	11.1	2
Rushing TD	1.4	0.6	0

RB2Justice HillProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	3.6	3.2	0
Rushing yds	26.6	13.3	0
Receptions	1.4	1.8	3
Receiving yds	9.8	13.7	9
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0

WR1Zay FlowersProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.8	7.4	11
Receptions	6.5	5.3	6
Receiving yds	101.3	63.0	66
Receiving TD	0.5	0.3	0

WR2Ja'Kobi LaneProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.0	4.2	5
Receptions	1.0	2.4	4
Receiving yds	11.0	25.9	40
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2	0

TE1Mark AndrewsProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.0	5.1	3
Receptions	4.4	3.5	1
Receiving yds	35.4	30.0	4
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2	0

CLE

QBDeshaun Watsonexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	202.0	173.2	164
Passing TD	1.4	0.8	0
Attempts	29.6	30.1	26
Completions	19.0	17.5	16
Rushing yds	6.0	32.3	29
INT	0.4	1.1	0

RB1Quinshon JudkinsProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	14.6	16.5
Rushing yds	44.2	62.9
Receptions	3.6	2.6
Receiving yds	20.4	17.3
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3

RB2Jaleel McLaughlinProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	0.7	2.4	9
Rushing yds	10.3	10.7	41
Receptions	0.0	0.5	4
Receiving yds	0.0	3.5	14
Rushing TD	0.3	0.1	0

WR1Denzel BostonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.8	5.9	5
Receptions	3.2	3.3	1
Receiving yds	66.0	45.0	15
Receiving TD	0.6	0.3	0

WR2KC ConcepcionProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.8	5.4	6
Receptions	3.6	3.4	4
Receiving yds	29.8	31.3	37
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

TE1Harold Fannin Jr.Projected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.4	5.7	3
Receptions	3.6	3.8	1
Receiving yds	31.4	35.2	9
Receiving TD	0.6	0.2	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 10:37 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

TEN @ IND

Cam Ward (TEN) v Daniel Jones (IND)

Kickoff: 57°F · Wind 6 mph · Precip 0% · Roof TBD

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast; the retractable roof status is not yet confirmed.

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 10:15 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

26–20

IND -9.3

Vegas IND -6.5

Spreads

IND -6.5PREMIUMFREE

BBMI Loss

+2.80

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 10:38 AM CT; refreshed Sun 10:38 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
TEN	60.1	5.1	198.1	106.2	17.1	2.9	1.2
IND	63.8	5.9	239.1	135.5	21.0	1.7	1.1
TEN (actual)	44	4	102	85	11	0	1
IND (actual)	77	5	234	165	24	6	3

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

TEN

QBCam Wardexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	179.2	216.0	102
Passing TD	0.6	1.2	1
Attempts	31.0	32.7	22
Completions	19.6	20.5	11
Rushing yds	0.8	12.1	7
INT	0.6	0.8	1

RB1Tony PollardProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	13.6	13.8	19
Rushing yds	54.6	57.0	76
Receptions	1.6	1.6	0
Receiving yds	4.8	11.6	0
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3	0

RB2Tyjae SpearsProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	3.4	4.2	1
Rushing yds	13.0	17.0	1
Receptions	2.8	2.4	1
Receiving yds	13.6	16.3	7
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0

WR1Carnell TateProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.4	6.5	7
Receptions	4.6	4.1	6
Receiving yds	54.8	48.5	70
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2	1

WR2Wan'Dale RobinsonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.0	6.4	7
Receptions	4.4	4.2	3
Receiving yds	35.2	46.3	22
Receiving TD	0.4	0.3	0

TE1Gunnar HelmProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	2.6	2.7
Receptions	1.8	2.0
Receiving yds	12.0	18.3
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1

IND

QBDaniel Jonesexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	204.2	249.9	269
Passing TD	0.6	1.8	1
Attempts	35.2	33.1	42
Completions	21.6	22.2	22
Rushing yds	3.2	12.5	30
INT	0.8	0.6	2

RB1Jonathan TaylorProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	20.2	20.4	21
Rushing yds	79.6	94.0	94
Receptions	2.6	2.9	2
Receiving yds	21.2	27.6	57
Rushing TD	1.2	0.8	1

RB2Seth McGowanProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	3.4	4.4	4
Rushing yds	12.2	18.6	27
Receptions	0.6	0.8	0
Receiving yds	2.0	6.4	0
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0

WR1Keenan AllenProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.3	7.2	11
Receptions	4.5	4.8	8
Receiving yds	36.3	53.4	82
Receiving TD	0.3	0.4	0

WR2Josh DownsProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.8	6.6	8
Receptions	4.0	4.4	4
Receiving yds	49.8	52.9	40
Receiving TD	0.0	0.4	0

TE1Tyler WarrenProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	7.2	7.1
Receptions	6.0	5.2
Receiving yds	42.6	57.4
Receiving TD	0.4	0.5

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 10:37 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

PIT @ TB

Priced, no pick

Aaron Rodgers (PIT) v Jalon Daniels (TB)

Kickoff: 77°F · Wind 15 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 2:01 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

26–19

PIT -3.8

Vegas PIT -2.5

No pick

+1.32

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 10:38 AM CT; refreshed Sun 10:38 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
PIT	61.7	5.2	216.4	107.0	17.8	2.3	1.3
TB	62.9	5.1	175.9	142.0	18.0	2.4	1.3
PIT (actual)	73	4	211	90	22	5	1
TB (actual)	73	3	122	102	17	5	2

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

PIT

QBAaron Rodgersexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	246.8	230.7	253
Passing TD	2.0	1.3	2
Attempts	36.8	34.2	49
Completions	22.0	21.6	33
Rushing yds	0.0	4.4	-1
INT	0.8	0.8	1

RB1Jaylen WarrenProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	14.0	11.6	14
Rushing yds	82.0	50.2	50
Receptions	3.8	3.7	2
Receiving yds	46.0	34.5	28
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3	0

RB2Rico DowdleProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	7.5	9.0	7
Rushing yds	18.5	36.9	40
Receptions	2.0	2.5	3
Receiving yds	14.0	19.8	9
Rushing TD	0.0	0.3	0

WR1DK MetcalfProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.4	8.3	15
Receptions	3.8	4.6	11
Receiving yds	45.0	59.2	93
Receiving TD	0.2	0.4	0

WR2Germie BernardProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.0	5.7	12
Receptions	3.3	3.5	11
Receiving yds	35.0	39.1	87
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2	1

TE1Pat FreiermuthProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.2	4.7	3
Receptions	3.8	3.4	2
Receiving yds	33.8	35.9	11
Receiving TD	0.8	0.4	0

QBJalon Danielsexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	112.3	186.2	164
Passing TD	0.7	1.1	1
Attempts	18.3	29.4	43
Completions	12.7	18.0	22
Rushing yds	3.0	38.4	39
INT	1.0	0.8	2

RB1Bucky IrvingProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	15.4	15.2	19
Rushing yds	81.2	61.4	46
Receptions	3.0	2.4	2
Receiving yds	14.2	20.1	3
Rushing TD	0.4	0.2	0

RB2Kenny GainwellProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	3.4	4.6	2
Rushing yds	8.8	20.1	17
Receptions	2.2	2.7	1
Receiving yds	10.8	20.0	7
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2	0

WR1Emeka EgbukaProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.6	6.7	16
Receptions	4.2	3.4	7
Receiving yds	38.4	42.7	48
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3	1

WR2Chris Godwin Jr.Projected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.2	4.5	8
Receptions	3.8	3.1	4
Receiving yds	35.8	32.7	37
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2	0

TE1Cade OttonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.4	4.7	2
Receptions	3.6	3.3	1
Receiving yds	36.4	31.6	4
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 10:37 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

CAR @ PHI

Priced, no pick

Bryce Young (CAR) v Tanner McKee (PHI)

Kickoff: 55°F · Wind 5 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 5:31 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

25–14

CAR -2.1

Vegas CAR -3.0

No pick

+0.94

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 10:38 AM CT; refreshed Sun 10:38 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
CAR	62.4	5.2	210.0	117.2	18.2	2.2	1.3
PHI	62.0	5.1	193.5	120.0	17.7	2.7	1.3
CAR (actual)	73	5	273	128	25	2	0
PHI (actual)	61	4	187	35	17	3	0

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

CAR

QBBryce Youngexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	317.0	224.7	281
Passing TD	2.3	1.3	2
Attempts	40.5	33.3	39
Completions	25.3	21.3	20
Rushing yds	0.0	11.9	6
INT	0.5	0.8	0

RB1Chuba HubbardProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	15.3	17.7	28
Rushing yds	76.5	72.3	120
Receptions	2.5	1.9	1
Receiving yds	21.0	15.4	1
Rushing TD	0.8	0.5	1

RB2Anthony Tyus IIIProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	—	3.5
Rushing yds	—	14.5
Receptions	—	0.3
Receiving yds	—	2.1
Rushing TD	—	0.1

WR1Tetairoa McMillanProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	9.8	7.6	9
Receptions	6.5	4.4	6
Receiving yds	96.3	56.5	86
Receiving TD	0.5	0.3	0

WR2Jalen CokerProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.3	4.8	13
Receptions	6.0	3.5	6
Receiving yds	74.0	39.5	97
Receiving TD	0.7	0.2	0

TE1Darren WallerProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.8	3.8	2
Receptions	3.3	2.6	0
Receiving yds	37.0	28.0	0
Receiving TD	0.5	0.3	0

PHI

QBTanner McKeeexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	137.0	214.1	215
Passing TD	0.5	1.2	1
Attempts	21.5	32.6	45
Completions	12.0	20.3	26
Rushing yds	0.0	16.7	0
INT	0.5	0.9	0

RB1Dameon PierceProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	11.0	17.5	12
Rushing yds	14.0	70.7	35
Receptions	2.0	1.6	4
Receiving yds	-2.0	11.6	15
Rushing TD	0.0	0.4	1

RB2Carson SteeleProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	—	3.4	0
Rushing yds	—	15.1	0
Receptions	—	0.3	1
Receiving yds	—	2.3	4
Rushing TD	—	0.1	0

WR1DeVonta SmithProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	9.0	7.2	14
Receptions	6.3	4.8	7
Receiving yds	78.3	55.4	75
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2	1

WR2Dontayvion WicksProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.6	4.5	4
Receptions	3.4	2.8	2
Receiving yds	52.0	32.1	24
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2	0

TE1Dallas GoedertProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.3	5.0	8
Receptions	3.7	3.5	6
Receiving yds	39.7	35.2	61
Receiving TD	0.7	0.4	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 10:37 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

CHI @ ATL

Priced, no pick

Caleb Williams (CHI, Q) v Michael Penix Jr. (ATL)

Kickoff: 61°F · Wind 15 mph · Precip 0% · Roof TBD

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast; the retractable roof status is not yet confirmed.

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 1:26 AM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 11:05 AM CDT

FINAL

31–23

ATL -0.4

Vegas ATL +1.0

No pick

+1.39

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 11:17 AM CT; refreshed Sun 11:17 AM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
CHI	62.4	5.7	220.9	136.5	20.1	1.5	1.0
ATL	61.3	5.4	212.9	119.0	18.7	2.0	1.2
CHI (actual)	72	5	270	99	20	4	1
ATL (actual)	52	5	194	63	13	5	1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

CHI

QBCaleb Williamsexpected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	203.5	232.4	305
Passing TD	1.0	1.6	1
Attempts	27.5	32.0	36
Completions	18.0	21.2	30
Rushing yds	10.5	27.5	3
INT	0.5	0.6	0

RB1D'Andre SwiftProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	15.6	20.1	16
Rushing yds	70.8	89.4	44
Receptions	2.8	2.4	4
Receiving yds	22.8	20.6	26
Rushing TD	0.8	0.8	2

RB2Roschon JohnsonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	4.5	3.4	13
Rushing yds	11.0	14.1	51
Receptions	3.0	1.3	2
Receiving yds	20.5	9.9	34
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	1

WR1Rome OdunzeProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.8	6.5	4
Receptions	3.4	3.6	3
Receiving yds	54.6	48.3	39
Receiving TD	0.0	0.4	0

WR2Luther Burden IIIProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.0	5.3	8
Receptions	4.6	3.9	8
Receiving yds	53.2	45.5	95
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3	0

TE1Colston LovelandProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.6	5.0	7
Receptions	2.6	3.5	6
Receiving yds	22.0	38.0	65
Receiving TD	0.0	0.3	1

ATL

QBMichael Penix Jr.expected starterProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	239.7	212.4	225
Passing TD	1.0	1.3	3
Attempts	25.7	30.8	33
Completions	17.3	19.7	19
Rushing yds	0.0	8.3	1
INT	0.3	0.7	0

RB1Bijan RobinsonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	20.4	17.6	9
Rushing yds	116.0	76.7	61
Receptions	3.6	4.2	2
Receiving yds	30.4	40.4	-8
Rushing TD	0.8	0.5	0

RB2Brian RobinsonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	10.2	6.7	2
Rushing yds	42.0	27.4	1
Receptions	0.6	0.6	2
Receiving yds	4.2	4.2	9
Rushing TD	0.8	0.2	0

WR1Drake LondonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.2	8.6	10
Receptions	5.4	5.5	4
Receiving yds	97.6	70.0	62
Receiving TD	0.0	0.5	0

WR2Jahan DotsonProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.4	3.1	5
Receptions	1.6	1.6	3
Receiving yds	29.8	20.8	87
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1	1

TE1Kyle PittsProjected PPR: — pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.0	5.5	7
Receptions	2.0	4.0	5
Receiving yds	21.8	40.8	60
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3	2

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 11:17 AM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

ARI @ LA

Jacoby Brissett (ARI) v Matthew Stafford (LA)

Kickoff: Indoors

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 3:05 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast does not apply to a closed-roof game.

FINAL

18–16

LA -15.1

Vegas LA -12.5

Spreads

LA -12.5PREMIUM

BBMI Loss

+2.59

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 2:48 PM CT; refreshed Sun 2:48 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
ARI	58.4	4.9	201.2	84.8	15.9	3.1	1.5
LA	66.4	6.4	273.9	153.5	24.3	1.0	0.9
ARI (actual)	70	5	218	120	22	0	1
LA (actual)	57	5	194	92	19	3	1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

ARI

QBJacoby Brissettexpected starterProjected PPR: 13.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	222.0	238.3	218
Passing TD	1.8	1.2	0
Attempts	39.8	38.0	35
Completions	26.4	23.2	24
Rushing yds	4.2	13.7	2
Rushing TD	0.2	0.1	0
INT	1.0	1.1	1

RB1Tyler AllgeierProjected PPR: 8.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	7.0	11.5	18
Rushing yds	23.8	45.6	38
Receptions	2.4	1.5	1
Receiving yds	8.8	10.1	10
Rushing TD	0.2	0.3	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	0

RB2Bam KnightProjected PPR: 5.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	1.5	6.0	15
Rushing yds	16.0	23.4	80
Receptions	0.0	1.0	2
Receiving yds	0.0	7.8	18
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	0

WR1Michael WilsonProjected PPR: 12.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	10.2	8.7	7
Receptions	5.8	4.9	4
Receiving yds	57.6	57.7	32
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3	0

WR2Kendrick BourneProjected PPR: 5.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.5	3.7	8
Receptions	4.3	2.5	5
Receiving yds	44.5	29.3	47
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

TE1Trey McBrideProjected PPR: 15.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	11.2	9.8	9
Receptions	8.4	6.8	7
Receiving yds	61.6	63.2	53
Receiving TD	0.6	0.5	0

QBMatthew Staffordexpected starterProjected PPR: 21.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	314.4	302.9	222
Passing TD	1.8	2.5	2
Attempts	43.2	36.5	33
Completions	27.8	25.6	25
Rushing yds	0.6	3.0	0
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0
INT	1.2	0.5	0

RB1Kyren WilliamsProjected PPR: 21.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	14.0	19.3	10
Rushing yds	68.6	92.3	50
Receptions	5.4	3.1	3
Receiving yds	40.0	28.1	17
Rushing TD	0.8	1.0	0
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1	0

RB2Blake CorumProjected PPR: 9.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	7.6	9.8	9
Rushing yds	36.2	47.2	42
Receptions	1.4	0.9	2
Receiving yds	14.6	8.0	18
Rushing TD	0.2	0.4	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	1

WR1Puka NacuaProjected PPR: 21.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	15.0	9.5	7
Receptions	10.3	7.5	6
Receiving yds	112.3	94.6	80
Receiving TD	0.3	0.6	0

WR2Davante AdamsProjected PPR: 14.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	9.0	6.5	4
Receptions	5.4	4.0	3
Receiving yds	88.2	56.3	39
Receiving TD	0.8	0.7	0

TE1Tyler HigbeeProjected PPR: 7.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.3	3.5	4
Receptions	5.0	2.7	4
Receiving yds	56.0	30.2	22
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 2:47 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

BUF @ LV

Josh Allen (BUF) v Kirk Cousins (LV)

Kickoff: Indoors

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 3:25 PM CDT

Outdoor forecast does not apply to a closed-roof game.

FINAL

33–30

BUF -7.7

Vegas BUF -5.0

Spreads

BUF -5.0PREMIUM

BBMI Loss

+2.68

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 1:58 PM CT; refreshed Sun 1:58 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
BUF	64.2	5.9	225.9	153.9	21.3	1.7	0.9
LV	59.8	5.2	212.0	97.6	17.2	2.2	1.4
BUF (actual)	61	6	242	106	23	2	0
LV (actual)	61	6	313	65	24	0	1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

BUF

QBJosh Allenexpected starterProjected PPR: 21.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	249.8	227.4	255
Passing TD	1.4	1.7	2
Attempts	27.6	29.1	33
Completions	18.2	19.9	23
Rushing yds	11.0	38.8	1
Rushing TD	1.2	0.5	0
INT	0.8	0.5	0

RB1James CookProjected PPR: 16.0 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	19.0	19.5	22
Rushing yds	106.4	89.1	95
Receptions	1.4	1.7	3
Receiving yds	6.2	14.8	58
Rushing TD	1.0	0.6	1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

RB2Ray DavisProjected PPR: 2.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	1.3	2.7	1
Rushing yds	2.7	11.5	4
Receptions	0.7	0.5	1
Receiving yds	11.7	5.1	5
Rushing TD	0.0	0.0	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	0

WR1Khalil ShakirProjected PPR: 9.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.2	5.1	6
Receptions	3.6	3.8	4
Receiving yds	51.2	40.9	34
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2	1

WR2DJ MooreProjected PPR: 8.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Targets	5.0	4.7
Receptions	3.0	2.9
Receiving yds	44.5	37.3
Receiving TD	0.3	0.3

TE1Dalton KincaidProjected PPR: 8.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.2	3.7	8
Receptions	3.2	2.9	7
Receiving yds	55.4	37.0	38
Receiving TD	0.2	0.3	0

QBKirk Cousinsexpected starterProjected PPR: 12.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	253.8	220.8	313
Passing TD	2.4	1.3	2
Attempts	34.4	33.8	41
Completions	22.4	20.9	23
Rushing yds	-0.6	3.0	0
Rushing TD	0.0	0.0	0
INT	0.8	0.9	1

RB1Ashton JeantyProjected PPR: 14.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	17.6	14.7	10
Rushing yds	58.2	58.9	22
Receptions	4.4	3.4	4
Receiving yds	43.0	27.1	36
Rushing TD	0.0	0.3	1
Receiving TD	0.4	0.1	0

RB2Mike Washington Jr.Projected PPR: 4.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	5.0	4.4	9
Rushing yds	25.0	20.1	43
Receptions	0.4	0.7	1
Receiving yds	0.8	5.2	7
Rushing TD	0.2	0.2	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	0

WR1Tre TuckerProjected PPR: 8.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.6	5.6	7
Receptions	3.8	3.3	5
Receiving yds	54.8	40.0	97
Receiving TD	0.2	0.2	2

WR2Jalen NailorProjected PPR: 4.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.7	3.1	4
Receptions	1.7	1.6	1
Receiving yds	17.3	21.1	9
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

TE1Brock BowersProjected PPR: 14.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	11.3	8.2	9
Receptions	8.0	5.7	4
Receiving yds	104.0	61.3	70
Receiving TD	1.0	0.5	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 1:57 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

LAC @ KC

Priced, no pick

Justin Herbert (LAC) v Patrick Mahomes (KC)

Kickoff: 68°F · Wind 12 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 3:25 PM CDT

Sunny

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 3:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 1:26 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 2:05 PM CDT

FINAL

6–22

KC -7.7

Vegas KC -7.5

No pick

+0.18

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 1:58 PM CT; refreshed Sun 1:58 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
LAC	60.2	4.8	174.5	114.0	16.4	3.5	1.3
KC	63.8	5.5	219.7	131.8	20.1	2.0	1.2
LAC (actual)	63	4	186	73	15	4	2
KC (actual)	55	8	272	153	22	0	1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

LAC

QBJustin Herbertexpected starterProjected PPR: 13.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	187.4	195.4	204
Passing TD	1.0	1.0	0
Attempts	28.6	30.8	37
Completions	17.0	19.0	22
Rushing yds	7.0	28.8	26
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0
INT	1.4	0.9	1

RB1Omarion HamptonProjected PPR: 9.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	14.6	11.0	7
Rushing yds	54.2	44.0	18
Receptions	1.0	2.0	4
Receiving yds	7.0	13.9	21
Rushing TD	0.6	0.3	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	0

RB2Kimani VidalProjected PPR: 5.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	4.7	5.5	7
Rushing yds	29.3	22.0	21
Receptions	1.3	1.2	3
Receiving yds	8.0	9.1	19
Rushing TD	0.3	0.1	0
Receiving TD	0.3	0.0	0

WR1Ladd McConkeyProjected PPR: 8.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.3	5.5	1
Receptions	3.0	3.4	1
Receiving yds	45.8	38.7	17
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2	0

WR2Quentin JohnstonProjected PPR: 8.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.8	5.1	3
Receptions	1.8	2.9	1
Receiving yds	27.0	35.8	57
Receiving TD	0.0	0.3	0

TE1Oronde Gadsden IIProjected PPR: 5.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	3.2	3.6	5
Receptions	1.8	2.4	3
Receiving yds	17.2	26.0	17
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1	0

QBPatrick Mahomesexpected starterProjected PPR: 16.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	259.3	236.4	272
Passing TD	2.3	1.5	0
Attempts	32.0	34.0	30
Completions	20.5	22.0	23
Rushing yds	0.0	22.6	16
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0
INT	0.5	0.8	1

RB1Kenneth Walker IIIProjected PPR: 17.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	21.8	17.4	19
Rushing yds	134.3	77.2	128
Receptions	3.0	3.1	2
Receiving yds	21.0	28.0	11
Rushing TD	1.0	0.6	2
Receiving TD	0.5	0.1	0

RB2Emmett JohnsonProjected PPR: 5.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	4.0	4.5	3
Rushing yds	14.0	17.8	6
Receptions	1.3	1.4	2
Receiving yds	18.5	13.9	18
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	0

WR1Xavier WorthyProjected PPR: 12.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.5	7.8	7
Receptions	3.5	4.7	7
Receiving yds	33.3	56.7	73
Receiving TD	0.3	0.3	0

WR2Jalen RoyalsProjected PPR: 4.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	1.7	2.5	4
Receptions	1.0	1.6	2
Receiving yds	5.7	17.9	24
Receiving TD	0.3	0.2	0

TE1Travis KelceProjected PPR: 15.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.5	8.1	5
Receptions	4.0	5.7	4
Receiving yds	61.5	66.6	53
Receiving TD	0.5	0.6	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 1:57 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

DAL @ GB

Priced, no pick

Dak Prescott (DAL) v Jordan Love (GB)

Kickoff: 58°F · Wind 12 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 18, 7:20 PM CDT

Clear

Forecast hour: Oct 18, 7:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 18, 5:51 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 18, 6:05 PM CDT

FINAL

13–23

GB -1.0

Vegas GB +0.0

No pick

+1.04

Game breakdowngenerated Sun 5:58 PM CT; refreshed Sun 5:58 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
DAL	61.3	6.2	261.1	120.5	21.1	1.3	1.0
GB	63.0	6.5	265.1	143.2	23.3	1.2	0.9
DAL (actual)	71	4	255	48	24	1	2
GB (actual)	68	5	261	59	20	3	1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

DAL

QBDak Prescottexpected starterProjected PPR: 20.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	276.2	285.0	258
Passing TD	1.8	2.1	1
Attempts	38.4	36.3	54
Completions	25.8	24.9	34
Rushing yds	0.6	13.0	7
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	0
INT	0.6	0.6	2

RB1Javonte WilliamsProjected PPR: 15.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	14.8	15.8	11
Rushing yds	55.2	70.8	41
Receptions	3.4	2.1	2
Receiving yds	18.8	14.1	9
Rushing TD	1.2	0.8	1
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1	0

RB2Emari DemercadoProjected PPR: 3.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected
Carries	2.5	3.4
Rushing yds	7.5	15.3
Receptions	0.0	0.7
Receiving yds	0.0	6.0
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0

WR1CeeDee LambProjected PPR: 15.6 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	10.2	7.9	18
Receptions	7.8	5.6	9
Receiving yds	101.4	72.2	70
Receiving TD	0.8	0.4	0

WR2George PickensProjected PPR: 14.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	8.2	6.9	11
Receptions	5.4	4.9	6
Receiving yds	71.0	66.9	73
Receiving TD	0.2	0.5	0

TE1Jake FergusonProjected PPR: 9.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.2	4.6	3
Receptions	3.0	3.7	2
Receiving yds	20.4	32.4	13
Receiving TD	0.6	0.4	0

QBJordan Loveexpected starterProjected PPR: 19.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	281.6	272.0	276
Passing TD	2.0	2.1	1
Attempts	37.0	32.5	41
Completions	22.4	22.9	23
Rushing yds	0.8	9.2	12
Rushing TD	0.0	0.1	1
INT	0.6	0.4	1

RB1MarShawn LloydProjected PPR: 14.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	8.0	12.4	8
Rushing yds	22.4	58.5	10
Receptions	2.0	2.3	0
Receiving yds	11.0	19.4	0
Rushing TD	0.4	0.7	0
Receiving TD	0.2	0.1	0

RB2Pierre StrongProjected PPR: 8.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	5.0	6.1	11
Rushing yds	7.0	29.8	28
Receptions	3.0	2.1	5
Receiving yds	11.0	18.3	39
Rushing TD	0.0	0.3	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.1	0

WR1Christian WatsonProjected PPR: 16.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	8.0	6.8	8
Receptions	5.2	4.8	3
Receiving yds	94.8	71.1	64
Receiving TD	1.2	0.8	0

WR2Matthew GoldenProjected PPR: 10.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	8.8	5.7	13
Receptions	4.8	3.8	6
Receiving yds	79.4	49.9	104
Receiving TD	0.4	0.2	1

TE1Tucker KraftProjected PPR: 13.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.8	5.8	8
Receptions	4.0	4.5	5
Receiving yds	42.4	55.6	37
Receiving TD	0.2	0.6	0

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Sun 5:57 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

WAS @ SF

Jayden Daniels (WAS) v Brock Purdy (SF)

Kickoff: 64°F · Wind 13 mph · Precip 0%

Scheduled kickoff: Oct 19, 7:15 PM CDT

Mostly Cloudy

Forecast hour: Oct 19, 7:00 PM CDT

Latest saved pregame forecast from the weather pipeline. Updates with the regular board refresh.

Source: NWS

Issued: Oct 19, 3:47 PM CDT

Saved: Oct 19, 6:05 PM CDT

FINAL

17–23

SF -10.0

Vegas SF -7.0

Spreads

SF -7.0PREMIUM

BBMI Loss

+2.98

Game breakdowngenerated Mon 5:48 PM CT; refreshed Mon 5:48 PM CT

1. Projected box score

Team	Plays	Yds/play	Passing yds (net)	Rushing yds	First downs	Sacked	Turnovers
WAS	60.5	5.7	209.7	135.6	19.8	2.1	1.0
SF	62.4	6.6	256.4	156.8	23.4	0.9	0.8
WAS (actual)	58	5	261	54	19	4	0
SF (actual)	60	6	249	126	20	2	1

2. Key player projections

Projected = the average of 4,000 simulations of this game.

WAS

QBJayden Danielsexpected starterProjected PPR: 19.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	153.0	207.3	300
Passing TD	1.0	1.4	2
Attempts	25.3	28.8	40
Completions	15.3	19.0	29
Rushing yds	1.0	49.0	10
Rushing TD	0.0	0.3	0
INT	0.0	0.6	0

RB1Rachaad WhiteProjected PPR: 12.1 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	7.3	13.6	7
Rushing yds	29.5	58.0	27
Receptions	2.5	2.0	4
Receiving yds	13.3	13.8	30
Rushing TD	0.0	0.5	0
Receiving TD	0.3	0.0	1

RB2Austin EkelerProjected PPR: 6.5 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	3.5	6.9	1
Rushing yds	14.0	29.1	3
Receptions	1.0	1.2	2
Receiving yds	13.0	10.0	4
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	0

WR1Terry McLaurinProjected PPR: 10.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.5	5.6	1
Receptions	3.5	3.5	1
Receiving yds	50.8	46.8	27
Receiving TD	0.3	0.3	0

WR2Stefon DiggsProjected PPR: 10.7 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	7.8	5.3	7
Receptions	4.5	4.0	6
Receiving yds	42.5	46.4	44
Receiving TD	0.8	0.3	1

TE1Chig OkonkwoProjected PPR: 6.8 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	4.3	4.1	7
Receptions	2.7	2.9	7
Receiving yds	27.0	29.3	69
Receiving TD	0.0	0.2	0

QBBrock Purdyexpected starterProjected PPR: 21.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Passing yds	239.2	257.5	264
Passing TD	2.6	2.1	1
Attempts	28.4	30.3	29
Completions	19.6	21.5	21
Rushing yds	2.4	21.8	28
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2	0
INT	0.4	0.4	0

RB1Christian McCaffreyProjected PPR: 24.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	12.2	15.8	16
Rushing yds	57.2	78.2	64
Receptions	3.8	5.1	9
Receiving yds	27.4	51.7	53
Rushing TD	1.0	0.9	2
Receiving TD	0.0	0.3	0

RB2Kaelon BlackProjected PPR: 5.3 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Carries	7.4	6.8	8
Rushing yds	27.2	32.7	34
Receptions	0.2	0.5	1
Receiving yds	1.0	4.1	3
Rushing TD	0.0	0.2	0
Receiving TD	0.0	0.0	0

WR1Mike EvansProjected PPR: 15.9 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	6.8	8.0	5
Receptions	4.8	5.1	3
Receiving yds	65.2	70.2	94
Receiving TD	0.6	0.6	0

WR2Brandin CooksProjected PPR: 5.2 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	1.5	2.7	2
Receptions	0.5	1.9	1
Receiving yds	3.5	23.2	13
Receiving TD	0.5	0.1	0

TE1George KittleProjected PPR: 16.4 pts

Stat	Season avg	Projected	Actual
Targets	5.6	6.4	8
Receptions	4.2	5.3	5
Receiving yds	53.6	65.5	69
Receiving TD	0.8	0.8	1

3. Assumptions and methodology

Inactives: NFL.com injury report (Out and other unavailable designations), Mon 5:47 PM CT (inactives not yet confirmed).

Showing 14 of 14 games · earliest start first

How the projections have done

How each projected average on the card compared with the actual result, next to the player's season average going in. Each projection used only information available before that game.

2025 walk-forward test, not live results (272 games)

	Projected average		Season average
Stat	RMSE	Bias	RMSE
QB passing yds	70.4	+4.4	85.3
QB passing TD	1.11	−0.11	1.24
QB attempts	8.03	+0.95	10.20
QB completions	5.59	+0.64	7.05
QB rushing yds	15.9	−0.7	16.7
QB INT	0.82	+0.07	0.91
RB1 carries	5.45	−0.48	6.03
RB1 rushing yds	38.3	+0.8	42.2
RB1 receptions	1.86	−0.08	1.99
RB1 receiving yds	20.1	+1.0	21.9
RB1 rushing TD	0.75	−0.05	0.80
RB2 carries	4.34	−0.39	4.53
RB2 rushing yds	25.9	−0.3	27.6
RB2 receptions	1.38	−0.11	1.42
RB2 receiving yds	13.3	+0.5	13.7
RB2 rushing TD	0.47	−0.03	0.49
WR1 targets	3.16	+0.11	3.39
WR1 receptions	2.41	+0.19	2.56
WR1 receiving yds	36.9	−0.3	39.8
WR1 receiving TD	0.61	+0.01	0.67
WR2 targets	2.75	+0.12	2.93
WR2 receptions	1.97	+0.15	2.08
WR2 receiving yds	31.0	−1.0	33.8
WR2 receiving TD	0.51	0.00	0.54
TE1 targets	2.75	−0.32	2.78
TE1 receptions	2.28	−0.30	2.33
TE1 receiving yds	27.5	−3.0	28.9
TE1 receiving TD	0.57	−0.08	0.59
Team plays	8.91	+1.78	9.14
Team yds/play	1.12	+0.03	1.24
Team passing yds (net)	69.4	+5.0	75.4
Team rushing yds	50.0	+7.1	52.6
Team first downs	4.81	−0.48	5.20
Team sacked	1.74	−0.01	1.81
Team turnovers	1.13	+0.11	1.23

2026 weeks 2-5, today's card replayed, not live results (60 games); some settings were fit on these weeks

	Projected average		Season average
Stat	RMSE	Bias	RMSE
QB passing yds	74.8	−5.8	97.6
QB passing TD	1.11	−0.11	1.42
QB attempts	9.29	−0.39	11.49
QB completions	6.26	−0.25	7.95
QB rushing yds	17.8	−0.1	19.1
QB INT	0.76	+0.08	0.87
RB1 carries	5.64	+0.18	5.95
RB1 rushing yds	35.6	+6.8	37.8
RB1 receptions	1.92	+0.01	2.12
RB1 receiving yds	19.9	+2.8	21.7
RB1 rushing TD	0.70	−0.04	0.91
RB2 carries	4.19	+0.37	4.77
RB2 rushing yds	23.5	+5.2	26.1
RB2 receptions	1.58	−0.17	1.70
RB2 receiving yds	12.3	+0.9	14.7
RB2 rushing TD	0.46	0.00	0.48
WR1 targets	3.85	−0.12	4.08
WR1 receptions	2.86	−0.30	3.21
WR1 receiving yds	43.3	−8.3	50.5
WR1 receiving TD	0.65	−0.04	0.80
WR2 targets	2.91	−0.12	3.19
WR2 receptions	2.09	+0.03	2.22
WR2 receiving yds	30.8	−2.3	35.6
WR2 receiving TD	0.45	+0.10	0.58
TE1 targets	2.85	−0.20	3.09
TE1 receptions	2.43	−0.12	2.77
TE1 receiving yds	29.0	+1.8	35.1
TE1 receiving TD	0.54	−0.03	0.66
Team plays	9.01	−0.15	10.97
Team yds/play	1.09	+0.04	1.38
Team passing yds (net)	71.2	−9.4	85.9
Team rushing yds	47.8	+12.9	53.2
Team first downs	5.20	−1.10	6.31
Team sacked	1.52	−0.01	1.85
Team turnovers	1.21	−0.01	1.37

Player rows count games where the listed player started and had a season average (RB2: one of the team's top two backs by snaps).

2026 rows count games where the listed player played, since 2026 starts are not yet in the data.

RMSE: Typical miss, in the stat's own units, with big misses counted more. Lower is better; the lower of the two is in bold.
Bias: Projection minus actual, on average. Negative means the projection ran low.
Season average: The player's average in earlier games this season (first game: last season with the same team). For teams, the team's earlier games.

Lines shown are model output and may move. All results are model projections, not guarantees.