DATA-DRIVEN SPORTS INSIGHTS

Model the Game. Find the Edge.

Independent predictive models for baseball, basketball, and football. Every forecast is locked before the game, graded afterward, and kept on the record.

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Data-driven models

Thousands of simulations power our probabilistic projections.

Verified performance

Every pick is graded in public. Nothing is hidden.

Market awareness

We compare our numbers to the market to find real edges.

Research first

Continuous testing and validation keep our models sharp.

Historical live premium record · All Sports+12.6% ROI60.7% win rate3,996 total picksView record & methodology →

MethodologyHow the WNBA model works

A tempo-free efficiency rating built from scratch for the WNBA, recomputed nightly from box scores and solved against opponent strength until it converges. It is the engine behind a live paper experiment, not a wagering product.

What it reads

Points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, from every box score
Iterative opponent adjustment, run to convergence after each slate
Blowout saturation, so garbage time cannot inflate a team
Point-in-time state: each night rates only what had been played by that night

What it produces

A net rating per team: the margin it projects against an average team on a neutral floor
Projected margin and win probability per game
Playoff and title odds from simulating the remaining schedule

What we publish

Spread and total projections, locked before tip and graded against the closing line
Closing-line value, the experiment’s primary metric
No wagers are placed or recommended, and nothing here is tiered or locked

Not claimed

Four seasons of backtesting put this model at market-competitive accuracy with no established cash edge. The live season is the test, and the totals side showed no edge at all and is published anyway.

See the WNBA experiment →