BBMI MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee Takes No. 1, but the Dodgers Still Own October
The Brewers have baseball’s best BBMI score. The Dodgers remain the strongest postseason favorite. After an August 3 trade deadline that reshaped rosters across the league, both can be true.
The Milwaukee Brewers have taken over the top spot in BBMI’s MLB Power Rankings.
They have not taken over as the model’s World Series favorite.
Milwaukee sits at .832, one thousandth ahead of the Dodgers at .831. The Brewers have banked more wins, own a slightly better scoring margin and now project to the same 98-win neighborhood as Los Angeles. The Dodgers, meanwhile, still have baseball’s highest underlying Talent rating at .605.
The updated Playoff Pulse makes the distinction even clearer. Milwaukee reaches the World Series in 24.3% of simulations. Los Angeles does it 35.6% of the time and currently owns BBMI’s highest championship probability at 24.0%. Atlanta is also very much in the National League picture at 17.2% pennant odds.
That is not a contradiction in the model.
The rankings measure the season teams have already earned plus what BBMI expects from the remaining schedule. Talent asks how good the underlying roster is. The Playoff Pulse adds the specific path through October.
Those questions can produce different leaders.
And this week, there is another reason to be careful comparing the numbers.
The trade deadline changed the teams, not their records
The August 3 trade deadline substantially reshaped the league.
Frontline starting pitchers, everyday hitters and bullpen arms moved across contenders. Those players now affect BBMI’s current roster evaluations and postseason simulations, while every win and loss accumulated before August 3 remains exactly where it was in the standings.
That creates an unusual transition period: the records largely describe the teams that existed for the first four months, while the forward-looking portions of the model are increasingly evaluating the teams that exist now.
BBMI separately analyzed the deadline by freezing the rest of the baseball world and changing only the completed trades. The effects were large enough to move some playoff probabilities by double digits and championship probabilities by nearly nine percentage points. That study is the better place for the team-by-team trade discussion; this article will focus on where the teams stand now.
The important point for the rankings is simpler:
The roster landscape changed sharply on August 3. The standings did not.
That helps explain why a club such as Milwaukee can rank No. 1 based on its entire season while Los Angeles can simultaneously look stronger in a playoff simulation based heavily on the roster that will actually play in October.
The rankings
| Rank | Team | BBMI | Talent | Record | Last 15 | Playoff | Pennant | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | .832 | .592 | 72–43 | 9–6 | 99% | 24.3% | |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | .831 | .605 | 69–46 | 6–9 | 99% | 35.6% | |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | .816 | .595 | 69–45 | 11–4 | 99% | 17.2% | |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays | .794 | .548 | 68–46 | 11–4 | 99% | 23.9% | |
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | .780 | .560 | 62–51 | 12–3 | 99% | 12.5% | |
| 6 | New York Yankees | .774 | .544 | 64–51 | 8–7 | 99% | 19.3% | |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | .768 | .526 | 67–49 | 10–5 | 99% | 8.5% | |
| 8 | Philadelphia Phillies | .738 | .542 | 62–54 | 6–9 | 71% | 8.6% | |
| 9 | Houston Astros | .730 | .575 | 59–57 | 12–3 | 64% | 11.9% | |
| 10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | .720 | .477 | 61–54 | 10–5 | 55% | 2.2% | |
| 11 | Chicago White Sox | .718 | .489 | 59–54 | 7–8 | 71% | 8.0% | |
| 12 | Texas Rangers | .716 | .527 | 57–58 | 7–8 | 46% | 7.1% | |
| 13 | Detroit Tigers | .708 | .552 | 56–59 | 9–6 | 31% | 6.8% | |
| 14 | San Diego Padres | .707 | .492 | 59–56 | 10–5 | 44% | 2.4% | |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | .701 | .547 | 57–60 | 4–11 | 5% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | Miami Marlins | .697 | .487 | 58–57 | 6–9 | 12% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | Seattle Mariners | .694 | .540 | 56–60 | 5–10 | 22% | 4.6% | |
| 18 | Cleveland Guardians | .691 | .469 | 57–59 | 4–11 | 37% | 3.6% | |
| 19 | Baltimore Orioles | .691 | .465 | 56–59 | 7–8 | 9% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | Washington Nationals | .678 | .438 | 56–61 | 5–10 | 2% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | Toronto Blue Jays | .675 | .506 | 54–62 | 8–7 | 3% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | St. Louis Cardinals | .675 | .423 | 57–58 | 6–9 | 10% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | Minnesota Twins | .670 | .466 | 56–59 | 7–8 | 20% | 1.4% | |
| 24 | Cincinnati Reds | .658 | .451 | 56–58 | 11–4 | 2% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | San Francisco Giants | .605 | .457 | 48–67 | 6–9 | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | New York Mets | .604 | .452 | 50–66 | 8–7 | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | Kansas City Royals | .587 | .443 | 48–67 | 8–7 | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | Athletics | .573 | .453 | 45–70 | 2–13 | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | Colorado Rockies | .565 | .407 | 45–70 | 5–10 | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | Los Angeles Angels | .552 | .419 | 44–71 | 5–10 | 1% | 0.1% | |
Rank, BBMI, Talent, record and Last 15 are from the August 5 Power Rankings snapshot. Playoff and pennant probabilities are from the Playoff Pulse simulated August 7. A pennant percentage is the share of simulations in which the team reaches the World Series. Talent bars run from .395 to .615 on a common scale.
Exhibit 1 · Talent against results
record-neutral Talent vs. winning percentageDiagonal is the line along which record and Talent agree. Points are colored when they sit more than 15% of the plot width off that line: Detroit, Houston, Pittsburgh, the Athletics, Seattle, San Francisco and Toronto above it; St. Louis, Arizona, the Cubs, Tampa Bay, Washington and Cincinnati below.
Team by team
1. Milwaukee Brewers — .832
72–43 · Talent .592 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 24.3%
Milwaukee finally passes Los Angeles.
The Brewers are 72–43, have outscored opponents by 1.23 runs per game and own a .592 Talent rating. BBMI now projects a 98–64 finish, while the Playoff Pulse gives Milwaukee a 94% chance to win the NL Central.
There is an important distinction between being No. 1 here and being the strongest theoretical roster.
BBMI’s rankings give substantial credit for the 72 wins Milwaukee has already earned. Those wins are permanent. The Dodgers cannot retroactively win them no matter how much talent they add.
October is different.
Milwaukee’s updated three-man postseason rotation currently projects as Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison and Dustin May. That is a strong group. But the broader National League became considerably more difficult around the Brewers, and the model currently gives them a 24.3% chance to win the pennant.
That is excellent.
It is also well behind Los Angeles.
Bottom line: Milwaukee has earned the No. 1 ranking. Los Angeles remains the bigger October favorite.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers — .831
69–46 · Talent .605 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 35.6%
The Dodgers drop one spot despite owning the best Talent rating in baseball.
That is what happens when a 69–46 record is compared with Milwaukee’s 72–43.
Los Angeles remains exceptional almost everywhere else. Its .605 Talent rating is No. 1, its +1.22 scoring margin essentially matches Milwaukee’s, and the model still projects the Dodgers to approximately 98 wins.
The postseason separation is larger.
Los Angeles wins the NL pennant in 35.6% of simulations and currently has BBMI’s best World Series championship probability at 24.0%.
The Dodgers therefore give us the cleanest example of what these rankings are supposed to show.
If the question is who has had the strongest overall 2026 season to this point, Milwaukee has a narrow edge.
If the question is who would BBMI least like to face in October, it is Los Angeles.
3. Atlanta Braves — .816
69–45 · Talent .595 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 17.2%
Atlanta moves up two spots and increasingly looks like the third member of an elite National League tier.
The Braves are 69–45 on the rankings snapshot, 11–4 over their last 15, have a +1.00 scoring margin and carry a .595 Talent rating — second only to Los Angeles.
Their postseason position is nearly settled. Atlanta is 99% to make the playoffs and 98% to win the NL East.
More interesting is what happens after that: the Braves win the National League in 17.2% of simulations.
That trails Los Angeles and Milwaukee, but not by enough to treat Atlanta as an afterthought.
The National League currently has three teams with meaningful separation from the rest.
Atlanta is one of them.
4. Tampa Bay Rays — .794
68–46 · Talent .548 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 23.9%
Tampa Bay falls one position despite an 11–4 stretch.
That says more about Atlanta than Tampa.
The Rays are 68–46 and now have a 76% chance to win the AL East. Their .548 Talent rating is good rather than overwhelming, and their +0.36 scoring margin is surprisingly ordinary for a team with that record.
October is where the model likes them most.
Tampa Bay wins the American League pennant in 23.9% of simulations, the highest rate in the AL.
That makes the Rays a useful reminder that postseason odds depend on more than a league-wide power ranking. Conference strength, seeding and likely opponents all matter.
Tampa Bay ranks fourth overall.
It currently has the best route through the American League.
5. Boston Red Sox — .780
62–51 · Talent .560 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 12.5%
No team has been hotter.
Boston is 12–3 over its last 15 games and 26–3 in its last 29 games, the best stretch in baseball, and jumps three positions to fifth.
The model is not treating it as a fluke. Boston’s .560 Talent rating is also strong, and its +0.66 scoring margin provides support for the recent results.
The problem is geography.
Boston plays in a division with Tampa Bay and New York. The Red Sox are effectively certain to reach October at 99%, but their division probability is only 9% (which was at 3% just two weeks ago).
They still win the American League in 12.5% of simulations.
That is a strong postseason profile for a likely Wild Card team.
6. New York Yankees — .774
64–51 · Talent .544 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 19.3%
The Yankees slide two positions even while sitting at 64–51 with a +0.70 scoring margin.
Their .544 Talent rating remains solid but does not separate them from the other AL contenders.
The postseason model likes New York more than the ranking does.
The Yankees reach October in 99% of simulations and win the American League 19.3% of the time — second only to Tampa Bay.
Like Boston, New York is being squeezed by an unusually strong division.
The Yankees are very likely going to October.
Whether they get the easiest version of that path is another matter.
7. Chicago Cubs — .768
67–49 · Talent .526 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 8.5%
Chicago is 67–49, has won 10 of 15 and remains comfortably inside baseball’s top 10.
Its .526 Talent rating is noticeably lower than the six teams above it, which means the Cubs continue to derive a lot of their ranking strength from wins already earned rather than dominant underlying roster quality.
Those wins have essentially secured October.
Chicago makes the playoffs in 99% of simulations.
Winning the division is another story. Milwaukee now owns a 94% NL Central probability, leaving Chicago at only 6%. The Cubs reach the World Series in 8.5% of simulations.
That is the penalty for occupying the same National League as the Dodgers, Brewers and Braves.
8. Philadelphia Phillies — .738
62–54 · Talent .542 · Playoff 71% · Pennant 8.6%
Philadelphia remains eighth, but the gap between underlying quality and current position is becoming more visible.
The Phillies still carry a good .542 Talent rating and a strong 3.86 FIP. But they have gone 6–9 recently and are essentially even in run differential.
Atlanta has nearly eliminated the NL East race.
The Phillies win the division in just 2% of simulations, but their path to October remains alive at 71%. Once there, they reach the World Series 8.6% of the time.
Philadelphia remains dangerous.
The increasingly likely route is through the Wild Card round.
9. Houston Astros — .730
59–57 · Talent .575 · Playoff 64% · Pennant 11.9%
Houston might be the strangest top-10 team on the board.
The Astros are only 59–57 and have been outscored slightly for the season.
BBMI nevertheless gives them a .575 Talent rating, fourth-best in baseball, and they have gone 12–3 over their last 15.
The recent surge has restored Houston’s position in the AL West.
The Astros now make the playoffs in 64% of simulations and win the division 52% of the time. They reach the World Series at an 11.9% rate.
The model has liked Houston’s roster more than its record for much of the season.
The record is finally beginning to move toward the model.
10. Arizona Diamondbacks — .720
61–54 · Talent .477 · Playoff 55% · Pennant 2.2%
Arizona rounds out the top 10 after a 10–5 stretch.
The Diamondbacks are 61–54 on the rankings snapshot despite only a .477 Talent rating and a nearly neutral scoring margin.
That is a strong season relative to the roster BBMI sees underneath it.
October remains uncertain.
Arizona makes the playoffs in 55% of simulations but reaches the World Series only 2.2% of the time.
The Dodgers have eliminated almost all realistic division upside, so the relevant question is qualification.
Arizona is almost exactly a coin flip.
11. Chicago White Sox — .718
59–54 · Talent .489 · Playoff 71% · Pennant 8.0%
The White Sox remain one of 2026’s better overachievement stories.
Chicago is 59–54 with a positive scoring margin despite only a .489 Talent rating. It now sits atop the AL Central.
BBMI gives the White Sox a 71% playoff probability and 55% chance to win the division. Their AL pennant probability is 8.0%.
The roster still does not grade as elite.
The standings no longer require it to be.
12. Texas Rangers — .716
57–58 · Talent .527 · Playoff 46% · Pennant 7.1%
Texas falls three positions.
The model continues to see a respectable .527 roster, but the Rangers remain below .500 at 57–58 and have a −0.29 scoring margin.
Fortunately for Texas, the AL West remains unresolved.
The Rangers are only 1.5 games behind Houston and make the playoffs in 46% of simulations. Their division probability is 33% and their pennant probability 7.1%.
That is about as close to a true toss-up as a mid-August postseason race gets.
13. Detroit Tigers — .708
56–59 · Talent .552 · Playoff 31% · Pennant 6.8%
Detroit is the week’s biggest riser at ▲6.
The Tigers have gone 9–6 recently and still own a strong .552 Talent rating with a +0.70 scoring margin.
But this is also where the August 3 roster reset matters — and it matters even more in Detroit’s case.
This rise has come after the departure of Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, a move that significantly altered the top end of the rotation and changed how the model evaluates the Tigers going forward. Even with that loss, the underlying roster depth and recent performance have been strong enough to push Detroit upward in the rankings.
The current team is not identical to the one that produced much of that underlying season profile, and the Tigers remain fourth in a crowded AL Central.
The Playoff Pulse gives Detroit a 31% chance to make October, a 16% chance to win the division and a surprisingly healthy 6.8% chance to win the AL pennant.
If Detroit gets into the tournament, BBMI still considers it dangerous.
Getting there is the problem.
14. San Diego Padres — .707
59–56 · Talent .492 · Playoff 44% · Pennant 2.4%
San Diego climbs two spots and has gone 10–5 over its last 15.
The Padres are now 59–56 on the ranking snapshot despite a negative scoring margin and only a .492 Talent rating.
Their postseason chances are much healthier than they were a few weeks ago.
San Diego reaches October in 44% of simulations.
But the model still sees a significant distinction between making the postseason and becoming a major threat after arrival: the Padres win the National League only 2.4% of the time.
The first objective is getting in.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates — .701
57–60 · Talent .547 · Playoff 5% · Pennant 0.4%
Pittsburgh remains the highest-ranked team whose season is rapidly approaching mathematical trouble.
BBMI still likes the underlying roster: .547 Talent, a strong 3.98 FIP and a positive scoring margin.
The results have stopped cooperating.
The Pirates are 57–60 and 4–11 over their last 15.
Their playoff probability has fallen to 5%.
The rankings still see enough quality to put Pittsburgh 15th.
There may no longer be enough games left for that quality to matter.
16. Miami Marlins — .697
58–57 · Talent .487 · Playoff 12% · Pennant 0.5%
Miami remains around .500, but the path forward is narrow.
The Marlins have a .487 Talent rating, almost no scoring-margin separation and only a 12% playoff probability.
This is still a competitive team.
It is no longer a particularly likely playoff team.
17. Seattle Mariners — .694
56–60 · Talent .540 · Playoff 22% · Pennant 4.6%
Seattle is the week’s biggest loser at ▼4.
That drop comes despite a .540 Talent rating that still looks like a playoff-caliber roster.
The problem is increasingly obvious: 56–60, a 5–10 recent stretch and a losing scoring margin.
The AL West remains close enough to provide hope, but the Mariners are down to 22% to make October and 15% to win the division.
BBMI still sees the talent.
It is running out of opportunities to turn that into wins.
18. Cleveland Guardians — .691
57–59 · Talent .469 · Playoff 37% · Pennant 3.6%
Cleveland falls three positions after going 4–11.
The Guardians’ .469 Talent rating does not give them much underlying margin for error, and their scoring differential has slipped negative.
Yet the AL Central is sufficiently open that Cleveland remains very much alive.
The Guardians make the playoffs 37% of the time and win the division in 20% of simulations.
That makes them more relevant than the No. 18 ranking initially suggests.
19. Baltimore Orioles — .691
56–59 · Talent .465 · Playoff 9% · Pennant 0.6%
Baltimore is tied with Cleveland in BBMI score but continues to drift away from October.
The Orioles are 56–59 with a .465 Talent rating and a negative run differential.
Their playoff probability is now just 9%.
The roster may be capable of better baseball.
The season increasingly requires much better baseball immediately.
20. Washington Nationals — .678
56–61 · Talent .438 · Playoff 2% · Pennant 0.1%
Washington holds at No. 20.
A 56–61 record is respectable relative to a .438 Talent rating, and the Nationals have actually maintained a slightly positive scoring margin.
That has not created a meaningful postseason path.
Playoff probability: 2%.
The interesting question in Washington is now development, not October.
21. Toronto Blue Jays — .675
54–62 · Talent .506 · Playoff 3% · Pennant 0.2%
Toronto moves up one spot despite sitting 54–62.
BBMI still gives the Jays a .506 Talent rating, considerably better than several teams immediately around them.
That distinction has almost stopped mattering for 2026.
Toronto reaches the postseason in only 3% of simulations.
At some point, a model cannot project enough future wins to overcome the ones a team has already failed to bank.
22. St. Louis Cardinals — .675
57–58 · Talent .423 · Playoff 10% · Pennant 0.3%
St. Louis is tied with Toronto in BBMI score despite a much weaker .423 Talent estimate.
Why?
The Cardinals have already won more games.
Their 57–58 record keeps them close enough to the National League Wild Card picture to retain a 10% playoff probability.
This is a good illustration of why Talent is not the ranking.
The standings count.
23. Minnesota Twins — .670
56–59 · Talent .466 · Playoff 20% · Pennant 1.4%
Minnesota falls two spots.
The Twins remain only three games out in the AL Central, but a .466 Talent rating and negative scoring margin leave the model skeptical.
Their 20% playoff probability is not dead.
It is also not comfortable.
The division remains available to whichever team decides to separate itself.
So far, nobody has.
24. Cincinnati Reds — .658
56–58 · Talent .451 · Playoff 2% · Pennant 0.1%
Cincinnati is 11–4 over its last 15, tied with Atlanta for one of baseball’s best recent stretches.
The ranking barely cares.
That sounds harsh until the rest of the season is included: 56–58, a .451 Talent rating and a −0.53 scoring margin.
The Reds make the postseason in only 2% of simulations.
A hot two weeks can change the trajectory.
It cannot erase four months.
25. San Francisco Giants — .605
48–67 · Talent .457 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1%
The Giants move up one place.
They are still 48–67.
San Francisco’s .457 Talent rating is weak, but even that would imply something better than the season the Giants have actually produced.
Their playoff probability rounds to 1%.
The rankings from this point forward are more useful as organizational diagnostics than postseason forecasting.
26. New York Mets — .604
50–66 · Talent .452 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1%
The Mets fall to 26th.
They are 50–66 with a .452 Talent rating and a −0.40 scoring margin.
Earlier in the season, there was a stronger argument that the roster was substantially better than the record.
That argument has weakened.
Playoff probability: 1%.
At some point, talent has to become production.
27. Kansas City Royals — .587
48–67 · Talent .443 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1%
Kansas City has gone 8–7 recently, but the overall numbers remain poor.
The Royals are 48–67 with a .443 Talent rating and −0.87 runs per game scoring margin.
Their postseason probability rounds to 1%.
28. Athletics — .573
45–70 · Talent .453 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1%
The Athletics are 2–13 over their last 15, the worst stretch in baseball.
Their −1.37 scoring margin is also the worst on the board.
There are individual players worth evaluating.
There is very little ambiguity about the team-level result.
29. Colorado Rockies — .565
45–70 · Talent .407 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1%
Colorado moves out of last place.
That is about the extent of the good news.
The Rockies are 45–70, have a .407 Talent rating and have been outscored by nearly a run per game.
Playoff probability: effectively zero, displayed at 1% after rounding.
30. Los Angeles Angels — .552
44–71 · Talent .419 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1%
The Angels fall to No. 30.
They are 44–71 with a .419 Talent rating, a −0.66 scoring margin and essentially no remaining postseason path.
There is no projection left that changes what the 2026 season has become.
The most important difference: rankings versus October
Milwaukee moving to No. 1 is the headline.
The more interesting result is what happens when we put the Power Rankings beside the Playoff Pulse.
Exhibit 2 · Ranking order vs. October order
top seven teams, BBMI rank → pennant rankGreen lines rise in October, red lines fall, grey holds position. Milwaukee and Los Angeles trade places at the top; Atlanta drops two positions and the Yankees gain two.
Milwaukee has the strongest season résumé.
Los Angeles has the strongest underlying roster and the highest postseason probability.
Atlanta has quietly built the second-best Talent rating in baseball and a real NL championship path.
Tampa Bay ranks fourth overall but currently has the highest pennant probability in the American League.
The Yankees rank behind Boston yet have substantially higher pennant odds.
Those differences are not flaws to smooth away. They are information.
A power ranking should not pretend a win in April disappears because another team acquired a star in August.
A postseason simulation should not pretend an April roster is the one that will take the field in October.
And that distinction is especially important immediately after a trade deadline in which a large amount of meaningful talent changed teams.
The records stayed with the franchises that earned them.
The players moved.
For the rest of the season, BBMI will be measuring what happens when those two realities meet.
How BBMI ranks the teams
BBMI Score starts with wins already banked and projects the remaining schedule from current full-strength roster talent, then corrects for strength of schedule.
The separate Talent rating is record-neutral. It measures the underlying quality of a fully healthy roster and counts short-term-injured regulars as returning rather than treating every temporary absence as permanent.
The Playoff Pulse is separate. Every remaining game and the full postseason bracket are simulated 10,000 times. Playoff % is how often a club reaches October. Pennant % is how often it reaches the World Series.
That separation is intentional.
The Power Rankings tell us how teams stack up across the season.
The Playoff Pulse tells us what the road from here looks like.
Right now, those two systems agree on the teams at the top.
They just disagree on the order.
Data: BBMI MLB Power Rankings, updated August 5 · BBMI Playoff Pulse, simulated August 7 · 10,000 simulations.
Disclosure: Independent sports analytics and model projections for informational purposes only. Rankings, forecasts and probabilities are model outputs, not financial or betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.