BBMI MLB Power Rankings: Milwaukee Keeps Winning, Atlanta Sweeps L.A., and the AL West Refuses to Cooperate
Nine days since the last board: the Brewers took two of three from Atlanta and then scored eight runs in back-to-back games, the Braves answered by sweeping Los Angeles, Cleveland climbed eight spots, Detroit kept falling, and Kansas City cannot lose. Here is what happened on the field, and what BBMI makes of it.
On August 21 in Milwaukee, Jacob Misiorowski beat Chris Sale 2–1. The Brewers took two of three from Atlanta that week, then scored eight runs in consecutive games against the Mets. Brice Turang hit a three-run homer in the first of them; Jackson Chourio hit two the next day. On August 28 they beat Texas 6–1 behind three runs batted in from William Contreras.
In Atlanta, the Dodgers spent three days losing. The Braves won 4–3, then 6–5 on a Ha-Seong Kim walk-off, then 1–0 on August 27 with Sale going the distance against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Los Angeles has the most talented roster in baseball by a distance the model has never recorded before, and it was swept by a team it could very well see again in October.
That is where this board gets interesting. Milwaukee is first at .847 because it has banked three more wins. Los Angeles is second at .841 despite having the stronger roster.
The BBMI Score takes a club’s banked wins, projects the rest of the schedule off the current roster, and corrects for the strength of the opponents already faced. Talent is the lens beside it: what a healthy roster is worth, record-neutral. When the two disagree, the gap is usually the story.
The full board
| Rank | Team | Mv | BBMI | Talent | Record | Last 15 | Margin | FIP | Playoff | Div | Pennant | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | · | .847 | .563 | 84–51 | 10–5 | +1.32 | 3.76 | 99% | 99% | 26.6% | |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | · | .841 | .661 | 81–54 | 9–6 | +1.10 | 3.98 | 99% | 99% | 31.6% | |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | · | .808 | .587 | 80–54 | 7–8 | +0.39 | 4.19 | 99% | 80% | 29.3% | |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | ▲1 | .801 | .543 | 80–55 | 8–7 | +0.85 | 4.20 | 99% | 92% | 14.5% | |
| 5 | New York Yankees | ▼1 | .797 | .583 | 76–58 | 9–6 | +0.75 | 3.88 | 99% | 18% | 23.0% | |
| 6 | Chicago Cubs | · | .770 | .528 | 76–59 | 6–9 | +0.87 | 4.60 | 96% | 1% | 9.0% | |
| 7 | Boston Red Sox | · | .765 | .559 | 73–61 | 9–6 | +0.75 | 3.86 | 99% | 1% | 12.3% | |
| 8 | Philadelphia Phillies | ▲2 | .754 | .547 | 75–60 | 11–4 | +0.19 | 3.85 | 91% | 8% | 11.0% | |
| 9 | San Diego Padres | ▼1 | .744 | .517 | 72–63 | 9–6 | +0.09 | 4.21 | 62% | 1% | 4.8% | |
| 10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | ▲1 | .734 | .513 | 72–64 | 8–7 | +0.03 | 4.45 | 46% | 1% | 2.3% | |
| 11 | Chicago White Sox | ▼2 | .729 | .478 | 71–63 | 9–6 | +0.35 | 4.45 | 96% | 83% | 8.0% | |
| 12 | Toronto Blue Jays | ▲2 | .701 | .494 | 66–70 | 8–7 | −0.43 | 4.16 | 16% | 1% | 1.4% | |
| 13 | Cleveland Guardians | ▲8 | .700 | .472 | 68–67 | 10–5 | −0.05 | 4.02 | 61% | 16% | 5.2% | |
| 14 | Houston Astros | ▼2 | .699 | .551 | 68–67 | 7–8 | −0.31 | 4.51 | 63% | 59% | 12.3% | |
| 15 | Baltimore Orioles | ▲5 | .692 | .471 | 66–69 | 8–7 | −0.17 | 4.28 | 12% | 1% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | Seattle Mariners | ▲6 | .692 | .545 | 64–71 | 8–7 | −0.47 | 4.04 | 21% | 18% | 3.5% | |
| 17 | Miami Marlins | ▲1 | .691 | .475 | 68–67 | 7–8 | +0.09 | 4.22 | 3% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | St. Louis Cardinals | ▼1 | .691 | .433 | 68–68 | 7–8 | −0.07 | 4.16 | 3% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | ▼4 | .688 | .558 | 65–71 | 7–8 | +0.15 | 3.96 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | Texas Rangers | ▼7 | .683 | .533 | 66–69 | 6–9 | −0.38 | 4.12 | 27% | 22% | 3.8% | |
| 21 | Minnesota Twins | ▼2 | .661 | .457 | 64–71 | 5–10 | −0.44 | 4.32 | 4% | 1% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | Detroit Tigers | ▼6 | .659 | .512 | 62–72 | 3–12 | +0.51 | 4.07 | 2% | 1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | Washington Nationals | · | .645 | .457 | 64–73 | 5–10 | +0.14 | 4.84 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | Cincinnati Reds | · | .640 | .459 | 64–71 | 6–9 | −0.73 | 4.57 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | Kansas City Royals | ▲1 | .624 | .467 | 61–75 | 12–3 | −0.57 | 4.50 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | New York Mets | ▼1 | .621 | .457 | 60–75 | 7–8 | −0.40 | 4.09 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | · | .572 | .415 | 55–80 | 5–10 | −0.54 | 4.12 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | Los Angeles Angels | · | .547 | .415 | 52–83 | 6–9 | −0.57 | 4.47 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | Colorado Rockies | ▲1 | .547 | .413 | 52–83 | 5–10 | −1.04 | 5.07 | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | Athletics | ▼1 | .544 | .398 | 53–82 | 6–9 | −1.38 | 4.93 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
Rank, BBMI, Talent, record, Last 15, Margin and FIP are from the August 28 board. Playoff, Div and Pennant are from the Playoff Pulse, simulated August 28, 10,000 times. Both agree on 404 games remaining. Mv is movement against the August 19 installment, the last one we published. A Pennant percentage is the share of simulations in which a club reaches the World Series. Talent bars run from .385 to .675 on a common scale.
Top of the board
Milwaukee is 84–51 and has won its last nine days the way it has won all season. Misiorowski has now gone twenty straight starts with at least six strikeouts, the longest run by a Brewers pitcher. Jake Bauers homered off a twelve-pitch at-bat against Atlanta and reached base five times against Texas on August 28. Christian Yelich doubled a run in. Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell drove in runs against the Mets. It is a lineup where the damage comes from everywhere, and their 3.76 FIP is the best on the board.
In the standings that is a lead of eight games in the National League Central, up from five on our last board, and the Pulse now calls the division finished at 99%. The board has Milwaukee at .847. The number that moved furthest is October: their pennant probability went from 18.2% to 26.6%, the largest jump of any club in baseball.
Los Angeles got Tyler Glasnow back on August 25, his first start since May 6 after more than three months out with lower back spasms. The Dodgers lost that game 4–3, lost the next one on Kim’s walk-off, and were shut out 1–0 in the finale. Then they went to Detroit, where Tarik Skubal pitched at Comerica Park for the first time since the deadline sent him to Los Angeles. He went six innings and gave up one run, a Max Clark triple in the fifth, and the Dodgers won it 2–1 on Freddie Freeman’s single in the eighth.
The Dodgers rate .661, the highest Talent figure this column has published, and their pennant odds went down.
Skubal is a major reason that number is so high. Los Angeles was at 37.0% to reach the World Series on August 19 and is at 31.6% now, and nobody took the roster away from them. Milwaukee got better, and the Braves just showed what a short series against Atlanta pitching looks like.
Atlanta had the best week of anyone near the top. The Braves swept the best roster in baseball, Sale threw the shutout, and Michael Harris II hit his 22nd home run on August 28 in a 6–4 win over Colorado. That is worth +0.029 of BBMI Score, the largest gain of any club in the top ten, and a move from fifth to fourth.
The model still has its doubts. Atlanta has faced the second-softest schedule of any club in the top ten at −1.0, and its Talent rating of .543 ranks tenth, one spot lower than nine days ago. Sweeping the Dodgers is about the strongest counterpoint the Braves could offer, and it does not erase the previous four months.
In the American League East, New York beat Boston 1–0 on August 28. Paul Goldschmidt supplied the only run with a solo homer, Cam Schlittler recorded his 200th strikeout of the season, and Cody Bellinger threw Ceddanne Rafaela out at the plate. The Yankees are 76–58, four behind Tampa Bay, and have added 18 points of Talent in nine days to rate .583, third in baseball. The Rays hold the division at 80% on the second-best roster in the sport. Two of the four best rosters in baseball are in one division and one of them is going to October as a wild card.
The movers
Kansas City got hot too late
The Royals went 12–3 over their last 15, the hottest stretch in baseball. They beat the Athletics twice, swept Detroit, took two of three in Toronto including a 13–2 afternoon, and shut Cleveland out 3–0 on August 28 with Michael Wacha striking out ten over eight scoreless innings. Carter Jensen hit his 19th home run, the most by a rookie catcher in club history. Kyle Isbel and Vinnie Pasquantino have been the other half of it.
Kansas City is 61–75 and 1% to play in October. The nine days were worth +0.033 of BBMI Score, the largest gain of any club on the board, and moved them one spot. That is the honest arithmetic of a hot streak in the last week of August, and it does not make the streak less fun to watch.
Detroit, and a call this column got wrong
On July 1 we put the Tigers at the top of the watch list and wrote that the gap between their roster and their record had a name: Tarik Skubal, back from injury, with the model pricing the rotation he would front the rest of the way rather than the one that banked the losses. We said the record would climb toward the talent, and that the deadline, not the roster, was the real variable.
The deadline took him. Skubal is a Dodger, which is why Los Angeles now rates .661 and why the Tigers do not. The record climbed to thirteenth on the August 7 board and has fallen every board since: Detroit is 62–72, 3–12 over its last 15, 22nd here, and 0.2% to reach the World Series. The scoring margin is still +0.51, seventh-best in the sport, which is the last evidence that this was ever a good team.
So the July 1 call named the right variable and got the direction wrong. We wrote that the deadline was the thing to watch and then wrote as though the roster would survive it. August 28 supplied the blunt version of it: Skubal came back to Comerica Park in Dodger blue and beat Detroit.
The closest race in baseball, and nobody in it plays each other
Houston leads the American League West at 68–67. Texas is two back at 66–69. Seattle is four back at 64–71. It is the tightest division in the sport and all three clubs are at or under .500.
Houston and Texas do not play each other again.
Houston sees Seattle twice. Texas sees Seattle three times. Between them, the three clubs contesting the closest race in baseball have 5 games left against each other, and none of them involve the two teams at the top.
So it gets settled somewhere else. Houston’s 27 remaining games include four with the Athletics and four with the White Sox. Texas gets four with Tampa Bay and three each with Boston and Toronto, and 15 of its 27 are against losing clubs. Seattle, as above, gets the softest run of the three by a distance.
The American League West, what is left
Playoff Pulse, August 28The Pulse gives Houston 59% of the division, Texas 22% and Seattle 18%. Seattle is twice as far back as Texas and the model has them all but level, and the reason is the schedule: the Mariners’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .433, against .506 for the Rangers.
What the board is telling you
Philadelphia went 11–4 and climbed two spots without anybody noticing. Aaron Nola won his 114th game on August 19 to tie Cole Hamels for sixth in club history. On August 28 the Phillies trailed the Angels in the ninth until Edmundo Sosa hit the first grand slam of his 554-game career to win it 5–3. They are 75–60 and 91% to reach October, five behind Atlanta.
Three divisions are close to settled: Milwaukee and Los Angeles are both at 99%, and Atlanta is at 92%. Tampa Bay is favored in the American League East at 80% and the White Sox are at 83% in the Central, so neither of those is finished. Nine clubs sit between five and ninety-five percent for a wild card.
The clubs to watch are the ones where the roster and the record still disagree. Pittsburgh rates sixth and is 1% to play in October. Seattle rates ninth and is 21%, with the softest month ahead of anyone in its division. Cleveland rates nineteenth and is 61%. One of those three is going to look very different by the next board.
The bottom line
Milwaukee keeps winning games and now leads the Central by eight, with the largest jump in October odds in the sport. Atlanta swept the best roster in baseball and got the biggest score gain of any contender for it. The Dodgers rate higher than any club this column has published and are second, because the standings are made of games. Texas fell seven spots while its roster improved. Detroit is the call we got wrong. Kansas City is 12–3 and going nowhere, which is its own kind of August.
404 games remain. The American League West may need more of them than anyone.
How BBMI ranks the teams
Data: BBMI MLB Power Rankings, updated August 28 · BBMI Playoff Pulse, simulated August 28 · 10,000 simulations · 404 games remaining. Movement is measured against the August 19 installment, the last one we published. Remaining-schedule counts are from the published 2026 MLB schedule and reconcile to each club’s games left.
Disclosure: Independent sports analytics and model projections for informational purposes only. Rankings, forecasts and probabilities are model outputs, not financial or betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.